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p******e
发帖数: 897 | 2 LaS VEGAS—The line Friday evening stretched outside Cardenas Market in Las
Vegas, teeming with Hispanic voters eager to cast ballots.
Many had to wait for hours on the last day of a fortnight of early voting in
Nevada, plied by food and exhortations from activists who didn’t have to
do much. Election officials had to keep the polling place open an extra
three hours to accommodate the line, which was described thusly on Twitter
by Yvanna Cancela, the political director for the majority Hispanic C... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 3 两点（1）巴马总统把CIR作为他第二个任期的重大立法项目再推动。如果成功，巴马就
可以名垂史册。美国总统的第二个任期，因为没有选举压力，一般都是想有些历史成就
。现在看巴马唯一能干成的就是移民改革。budget方面要GOP让步，比CIR更难。这也是
为什么巴马这次非常的quiet.都是背后推动。他知道一旦他高调，就会让共和党难以合
作。
（2）有人说民主党可以用这个不断刺激latino出来投票。这是一本万利的买卖。其实
他们忽略了一个关键问题，就是latino投票率并不高。latino turnout rate是远远低
于白人的。如果民主党老炒作，就成了狼来了的故事，久了，latino也厌倦了，更不投
票。这就是为什么共和党希望赶快，把这个issue糊弄过去，这样latino就可以呆在家
里不出来了。所以好的政客是不能给empty promise.而是要实现promise,同时给新的
promise.
In the 2012 election, Latino turnout remained at its historically low levels
, despite Presid... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 4 STUNNING FINAL ANALYSIS=> GOP Primary Turnout Up 62% This Year – Dem
Primary Turnout Down 21% This Year
Jim Hoft Jul 4th, 2016 10:59 am
This ought to keep Democrats up late at night.
Despite the constant negative press by the liberal media, Republicans are
coming off a historic primary season.
Republican turnout was up 62% this year.
Democratic turnout was down 21% this year.
Despite her tight race with Socialist Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
received 1,019,237 fewer votes this year than in 200... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****0
发帖数: 144 | 5 In 21 districts in Wood County Ohio, Obama received 100% of the votes where
GOP inspectors were illegally removed from their polling locations — and
not one single vote was recorded for Romney. (Another statistical
impossibility).
A precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the official voting results from Wood
County, Ohio, for the 2012 election shows that Barack Obama received nowhere
close to 100% of the votes cast in any of that county's 97 precincts. The
highest percentage he achieved in any one pr... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 6 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
the critical battleground state of Florida.
The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
But it's not all... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 7 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
the critical battleground state of Florida.
The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
But it's not all... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 8 http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/?hp=bh
Top advisers to Mitt Romney told supporters that turnout is beating their
models in a number of key battlegrounds in swing states, according to
sources familiar with a Tuesday afternoon conference call.
Political Director Rich Beeson, senior adviser Ron Kaufman and others
provided information on a handful of counties in pivotal states — some of
it hard, some of it anecdotal — according to a report on the call provided
by two Republican sources.... 阅读全帖 |
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C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 9 The U.S. has a long and difficult history with racial discrimination, but on
Tuesday the Supreme Court marked a milestone worth celebrating when it
ruled that a section of the 1965 Voting Rights Act has outlived its
usefulness. The political left is reacting as if this means a return to Jim
Crow, but the ruling is best understood as a sign of the racial progress
that progressives claim to believe in.
In a 5-4 decision, the Justices said that the law's Section 4b coverage
formula—which requires t... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 10 By A. PHILLIP CHARLES
WASHINGTON – The Politik is predicting that on Tuesday, November 8, 2016,
Donald J. Trump will win a landslide election, to become the 45th President
of the United States.
2012 and 2016
In 2012, Barack Obama won reelection with 65.9 million votes. Mitt Romney
finished 5 million votes behind, at 60.9 million. That earned Obama 332
electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
Just four years earlier, Obama had become the first African American ever to
be elected president of the United... 阅读全帖 |
|
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a*********7
发帖数: 30080 | 12 粗粗看了一眼，纯议论，全无数据支持啊。。。
比如你引用过的那一段，最后说“这种成熟的冷漠是西方社会选举投票率一直很低的一
个重要原因，但在同时，它进一步增强了民主制度的稳定性。”
依然是wiki, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout,
看turnout in national lower house elections, 1960–1995那个table,
70%以上的国家一堆一堆的。美国倒算低的；不过细看，受教育程度越高的，越不“成
熟”，越不“冷漠”，越爱参加选举。
根据wiki的数据，voter turnout在很多国家确实是慢慢下降的,不过原因很复杂； 粗
看了一下，似乎不是简单的“成熟”的问题。里面提到的一个很可能的原因，是最近数
十年人口流动性增加了，一个外来人不容易参加选举 －－ 联系到asian american极低
的voter turnout数字，这个原因比“成熟”论似乎更加可信。
又看了一眼，接下来这段话跟“成熟”论正好相反：
The decline in voter turnout is almost wholl... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 13 目前为止：
Open primaries 基本都赢了。大部分是大幅度取胜。
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts,New Hampshire, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia
没赢的 open primary;
texas - cruz 的老家。
两个 Closed Primary – 极其微弱的优势取胜
Louisiana by 3
Kentucky by 4
在 open primary 中：共和党的 voter turnout 极其高，而对应民主党的 voter
turnout 却极其低。
Georgia: 民主党 turnout down nearly 300,000 from 2008; 共和党 were up
roughly 329,000.
South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia 也是差不多，共和党的 turnout 奇高，而
民主党的 turnout 确很低. 麻省更是有两万多选民在选前改由民主党转为共和党。
这显示... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 14 发信人: tdb (help), 信区: USANews
标 题: All polls suggest 川普 will win by 8%
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 7 20:57:57 2016, 美东)
1) Real Clear Politics and averaged major polls show Hilary leads about 5%.
2) All polls in average polled about 8% more Dem than GOP (8% is 8% of total
polled).
3)There are about 1/3 Independents, 2/3 are DEM + GOP. Trump has about 10%
leads in Independents over Hilary. 10% * 1/3 = about 3% lead.
4) Basically these data say: Trump's lead in Independent just about offsets
the high... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 15 1) Real Clear Politics and averaged major polls show Hilary leads about 5%.
2) All polls in average polled about 8% more Dem than GOP (8% is 8% of total
polled).
3)There are about 1/3 Independents, 2/3 are DEM + GOP. Trump has about 10%
leads in Independents over Hilary. 10% * 1/3 = about 3% lead.
4) Basically these data say: Trump's lead in Independent just about offsets
the higher DEM polled.
4) Turnouts: GOP primary has about 5.6% more than DEM.
Pew: Combined Republican turnout has been 17.3%... 阅读全帖 |
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T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 17 呵呵，65%的法国投票率你说很低，你知道去年美国的投票率是多少吗？才55%。
过去N届美国大选都没到过65%。
Washington (CNN) — Voter turnout this year dipped to nearly its lowest
point in two decades.
While election officials are still tabulating ballots, the 126 million votes
already counted means about 55% of voting age citizens cast ballots this
year.
That measure of turnout is the lowest in a presidential election since 1996,
when 53.5% of voting-age citizens turned out.
As election officials go through outstanding ballots -- such as provisio... 阅读全帖 |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 18 voter turnout does not going down all the time.
The following the turn out rate of each US election.
Year Voting-age
population Voter
registration Voter turnout Turnout of voting-age
population (percent)
2008* 231,229,580 NA 132,618,580* 56.8%
2006 220,600,000 135,889,600 80,588,000 37.1%
2004 221,256,931 174,800,000 122,294,978 55.3
2002 215,473,000 150,990,598 79,830,119 37.0
2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 ... 阅读全帖 |
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k*****y
发帖数: 2069 | 19 http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/11/02/races-watch-east-coast-closings-indicate-national-trend/
Kentucky and Indiana are the first polls to close Tuesday on Election Night,
followed by four states with competitive races that could provide a first
glimpse at whether Republicans will take over the House -- and if the new
majority will have swept in on a wave or a trickle.
Republicans need 39 seats to gain a majority, but those in the predictions
racket have been estimating somewhere between th... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 20 现在的poll 只是 参考作用。看了一下 Brexit 对比 2015 british 大选 数据
2015 turnout 是 66.4%，比上一次大选还高了 1.3%，还是四个党竞选。Cameron 最后
赢了37% 的相对多数。
Brexit turnout 是 72.21%， 一下子高了～6%，leave EU 的最后赢了～4%。
如果今年美国大选 turnout ～60% 或大于 60%，trump 赢面很大。
labor day后，今年大选就不缺 drama，选情一定 很热，turnout 有很大的可能性 高
出 2008.
we'll see。 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 21 你说的 poll 是 raw poll. 任何数据不修改的 poll. WSJ 前一阵出个 raw poll,
trump 领先几个点。
一般 poll 都是加上自己的推断。比如 Monmouth 有个 poll, raw poll trump 领先。
Monmouth 就用 2012 年的 turnout, 还有其他什么，一加权，最后对外公布的结果就
变成了希拉里领先好几个点。但是 2012 turnout 会和现在一样吗？希拉里没有黑肤色
，相信黑人的 turnout 就不会像 2012 年。况且从 rally 人数就看出，她的 base 热
情不高， turnout 只会走低不会走高。
现在的 poll 基本都是加上自己的推断。主流媒体操纵 poll 的一个手段之一。以此来
影响选举结果。 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 22 初选时候媒体们抱着取暖说的川普支持率有ceiling，号称是35%，实际上他最不利时候
在威斯康星也有37%的floor.
辩论之前一定要分清楚floor和ceiling.大伙都应该知道川普的支持者上船之后基本就
都是铁票了，这就是floor.再对比一下双方拉力的场面和街上少的可怜的希拉里牌子和
sticker,投给她的人都是捏着鼻子投。所以实际是川普有大约40%的floor,希拉里有40%
左右的ceiling.
这种形势下还在undecided是什么人？主要是平时不关心政治,对他的政策一无所知，听
到很多媒体和社交圈上抹黑认为川普这不好那不好不高兴投他的人。即使正常选举年份
也有很多这样的人等到总统辩论才开始试图了解候选人。希拉里这个人发自内心的面目
狰狞，枯燥乏味，所以选民看得越多越讨厌她，这才决定了她的支持率有ceiling.川普
根本不用怕希拉里撒谎会拉到几个新选民。
对这些缺少了解的人川普的目的就应该是就是be positive，be presidential,
deliver policies.别忘了川普的一个主要黑点就是even though Hillary is ba... 阅读全帖 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 23 Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary
turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic
level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had
competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era:
1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008.
PARTY WITH HIGHER PRIMARY TURNOUT WINS …
YEAR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN POPULAR VOTE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
1976 16.1m 10.4m ✓ ✓... 阅读全帖 |
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r*s
发帖数: 2555 | 24 如果按照他们说是随机产生的，但为什么算出来的turnout rate很相近, 为什么每个县
的turnout rate不随机产生?
2012 turnout rate
County Total Electors Voting Age Estimate 2012 Voter Turnout
ADAMS COUNTY 10,255 17,460 58.73%
ASHLAND COUNTY 8,436 12,390 68.09%
BARRON COUNTY 22,811 35,917 63.51%
BAYFIELD COUNTY 9,830 12,244 80.28%
BROWN COUNTY 130,242 188,653 69.04%
BUFFALO COUNTY 6,887 10,663 64.59%
BURNETT COUNTY 8,726 12,428 70.21%
CALUMET COUNTY 26,493 36,023 ... 阅读全帖 |
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d****n
发帖数: 626 | 25 Democrats slowly chipped away at the Republican advantage, largely thanks to
strong turnout from Hispanic voters. While they are more split in Florida
than in other states, Hispanic voters disproportionately favor Democrats.
And this year, turnout among Hispanics is up about 103% from where it was at
this point in 2008, according to a CNN analysis of early voting data from
Catalist.
CNN has partnered with Catalist, a data company that works with progressive
candidates and advocacy groups, academ... 阅读全帖 |
|
d****n
发帖数: 626 | 26 Democrats slowly chipped away at the Republican advantage, largely thanks to
strong turnout from Hispanic voters. While they are more split in Florida
than in other states, Hispanic voters disproportionately favor Democrats.
And this year, turnout among Hispanics is up about 103% from where it was at
this point in 2008, according to a CNN analysis of early voting data from
Catalist.
CNN has partnered with Catalist, a data company that works with progressive
candidates and advocacy groups, academ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
w****h
发帖数: 1344 | 28 我不看CNN了。如果CNN没有提到今天的高turnout，那多半民党大势已去。 如果CNN谈
论今年的高turnout，尤其是郊区的高turnout，那说明主党还有戏，也许有些妇女票在
高turnout里。
另外搞poll的T大神怎么还没有来。 老大不发话俺们心里也没底：） 但据我小地方的
观察，今年和党恐怕是要大胜：） |
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R******d
发帖数: 5739 | 29 Democracy is enforced by the three branches of the government, out of which
only the legislative branch operates through voting. Statistics and public
sentiment hardly ever play any important role in legislation, the convoluted
process of endless political bargaining, lobbying, and quid pro quo. The
existing gun law is an excellent case in point.
----------------------------------------
well, FYI, the definition of democracy is "rule by people". if I remember
correctly, the birth place was a se... 阅读全帖 |
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a********e
发帖数: 5251 | 30 真逗。我google完了。
＂In general, low turnout may be due to disenchantment, indifference, or
contentment. Low turnout is often considered to be undesirable, and there is
much debate over the factors that affect turnout and how to increase it.＂
他们自己都承认有可能是分别因为＂失望，冷漠，或满足＂ 而且目前仍有很多争议，
你到想啃上腚了？
你想把人往哪引啊？ |
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P*****t
发帖数: 4978 | 31 美俄对抗新一轮又来了
Putin 'elected Russian president'
Vladimir Putin has been elected Russian president for the third time, exit
polls suggest, after spending the last four years as the country's PM.
The exit polls gave Mr Putin about 60% of the vote, meaning that he should
avoid a run-off with his nearest rival, Communist Gennady Zyuganov.
Officials say turnout was higher than for the last election in 2008.
But opposition groups have reported widespread fraud, with many people
voting more than once.
The... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 32 美国民主为人民吗？ 2012-03-16 10:44:15
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/03/02/why-cant-americans-h
Why Can’t Americans Have Democracy?
by Paul Craig Roberts, 2 March 2012
Syria has a secular government as did Iraq prior to the american invasion.
Secular governments are important in Arab lands in which there is division
between Sunni and Shi’ite. Secular governments keep the divided population
from murdering one another.
When the american invasion, a war crime under the Nuremberg standard set b... 阅读全帖 |
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o**********e
发帖数: 18403 | 33 Big hands to everyone for wonderful solidarity this past week. I want to
express my deep gratitude to the local volunteer organizers and local
elected officials who supported us.
But we are far from done. Disney still need to publicly and resoundingly
reject the racist bias and subtle manipulation that precipitated a little
kid's shocking genocidal suggestion. Disney also need to publicly and
openly take responsibility for creating an environment in which this clip
was allowed to be distr... 阅读全帖 |
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z**k
发帖数: 945 | 34 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-11/cantor-wasted-cash-at-
Cantor Wasted Cash at Ritz While Raising Brat’s TV Image
By Annie Linskey and Greg Giroux Jun 12, 2014 12:00 AM GMT-0400
16 Comments Email Print
Facebook
Twitter
Google+
LinkedIn
Save
Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) arrives for a news conference after
telling... Read More
Related
Eric Cantor on Primary Loss, Leadership Post
How does a political veteran with a $... 阅读全帖 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 35 都是吃人血馒头。
Protests as Strategic Games: Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong's
Antiauthoritarian Movement
Abstract
Social scientists have long viewed the decision to protest as strategic,
with an individual's participation a function of their beliefs about others
’ turnout. We conduct a framed field experiment that recalibrates
individuals’ beliefs about others’ protest participation, in the context
of Hong Kong's ongoing antiauthoritarian movement. We elicit subjects’
planned participation in an ... 阅读全帖 |
|
B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 36 星光你看看和这个付钱让人去暴乱比如何？
https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/134/2/1021/5298503
Protests as Strategic Games: Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong's
Antiauthoritarian Movement
Abstract
Social scientists have long viewed the decision to protest as strategic,
with an individual's participation a function of their beliefs about others
’ turnout. We conduct a framed field experiment that recalibrates
individuals’ beliefs about others’ protest participation, in the context
of Hong Kong's ongoing antiautho... 阅读全帖 |
|
a***c
发帖数: 315 | 37 原因如下
- 看了以下近期POLL结果的构成.发现巴马的50%支持率由两部份人构成.绝对投票给巴
马的,和现在其实还没最终决定投票给谁,但如果今天就投票,倾向于投巴马的.第二种人
在economy crisis爆发后,增加导致巴马现在的领先. 这部分人多半是跟着感觉走,如果
经济危机趋于缓和, 心情缓和后,投谁还不一定.
- POLL数据里,摇摆州里居然有近40%人,feel uncomfortable if obama wins white
house. 考虑到马肯现在也就43%支持率. 表明马肯支持者里绝大部份是奥黑.这些人在
任何情况下都不会投拍票给巴马.
- turnout
POLL data里民主党小幅领先是共和党的造化.这样才能motivate共和党基本盘出来投票
.共和党的turnout取决于fear程度.而中间选民基本队两党都不信任,turnout一向低.
偏巴马的看到民主党领先了,很多就不投票了.
马肯在Nov 4前和巴马差距在3%以内.就不好说谁赢.
不过单就现在看还是巴马机会大. |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 LAS VEGAS (AP) — Republican former state senator Mark Amodei won Nevada's
heavily GOP 2nd Congressional District in a special election Tuesday night,
easily trouncing Democrat Kate Marshall in this economically-ravaged state
where President Barack Obama's popularity has sagged.
Amodei entered Election Day as the candidate to take down, with early voting
and registration numbers alike heavily favoring the GOP. History was also
on his side. The district made up of rural, conservative voters has ne... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 39 On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I
predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former
Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice
Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long
before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL
Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my livi... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 40 On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I
predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former
Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice
Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long
before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL
Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my livi... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 41 Mitt Romney will score a vital victory in Florida, a pollster for one of the
state’s most influential newspapers confidently predicted Saturday after
his latest survey gave the Republican challenger a six-point lead.
“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Brad Coker
who conducted the Mason-Dixon poll for the Miami Herald. “Will it be five
points? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly.
“I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going
to have a recount-r... 阅读全帖 |
|
r*s
发帖数: 2555 | 42 Democratic Turnout Dips in Vermont: Vermont, another state with consistently
high percentages of voter eligible population turnout, saw a slight dip in
Democratic primary participation compared to 2008. The last time Vermont
Democratic primary voters faced an open field in 2008, 155,279 participated
in the primary, about 32% of the voting eligible population at the time.
This year, only about 27% of the voting eligible population cast a vote in
the Democratic contest, representing 134,600 votes,... 阅读全帖 |
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a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 43 turnout不是精算师能预测的。
12年几个砸了牌子的都是多估了R的turnout。
brexit那么大误差也是turnout估计错误。
stream |
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l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 44 怎么说了这么多遍你还不明白。
第一，这些人不是铁板一块。我朋友Lesbian，坚定投Trump。
第二，turnout，turnout！比如说希拉里的基本盘占全部人口70%，川普的占30%。但是
川普的turnout rate是希拉里方的3倍，谁赢？（数字只是打个比方） |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 45 President Barack Obama suggested that Hillary Clinton’s hyper-progressive,
city-focused campaign strategy led to her defeat on Nov. 8, and has given
the GOP a chance to win political dominance for many years.
“One message that I do have for Democrats, is that a strategy that’s just
micro-targeting particular discrete groups in a Democratic coalition
sometimes will win you the election but it is not going to win you the broad
mandate you need,” a subdued Obama told reporters at a Nov. 20 press
co... 阅读全帖 |
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z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 46 There are two different ways to compute voter turnout. Your 73% number is
the registered voter turnout. The overall eligible voter turnout should be
no more than 60% as many eligible voters don't bother to register if they
don't intend to vote. |
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S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | 48 结论，龙虾下雨所以出来投票的少多了，所以蓝方大胜。逻辑推出，船铺是最大龙虾。
这些都是来自船粉们自己的帖子。
论据，
选举前船粉做出这些判断:
发信人: ilovenewyork (逍遥游), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: VA州长选举输了，奥黑是不是要找块豆腐。。。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Nov 6 12:05:49 2017, 美东)
明天下雨，龙虾躲在家里不敢出门，也降低了民主党胜选的可能性。
发信人: ilovenewyork (逍遥游), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: VA州长选举输了，奥黑是不是要找块豆腐。。。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Nov 6 12:10:50 2017, 美东)
2016年大选，老婊子动员到极致了，中期选举，龙虾一般不会那么起劲。明天的结果拭
目以待！
发信人: lczlcz (lcz), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: VA州长选举输了，奥黑是不是要找块豆腐。。。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Nov 6 12:18:51 2017, 美东)
嗯, 明天下雨温度... 阅读全帖 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 49 http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/09/rel9b.-.2018.midterms.pdf
A total of 1,009 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live
interviewers calling both landline and cell
phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire
sample, 31% described themselves
as Democrats, 25% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described
themselves as independents or
members of another party.
这个sample偏的没边了。44%的Independents！只有25%的Republicans。。
虽然它得出的结论是Dem 54% 对GOP 41%，但是... 阅读全帖 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 50 我想还是要客观。
Independent也有很多对Trump大嘴不满的。
目前的poll，我能查到党派数据的，基本上independent都是55-45或者57-43这种比例
偏向主党。而且两党对base的保持度都很好（90%左右）。两党的turnout热情也都是很
高。确实之前一系列事件使得主党更加偏主党而和党更加偏和党。女性，尤其是未育女
性强烈偏主党的问题也是客观存在的。
实际上16年的poll虽然失准，但是如果去看independent数据的话，independent数据确
实基本都是Trump +6, +7左右，还是比较准的。不准的是turnout model。所以推断今
年的independent数据55-45应该也是比较准的。
2014年的independent turnout是28%，说20%是算的太少了。Independent确实early
vote少，但是不代表最后还是少。
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/race/house/#exit-polls |
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