r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 1 On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I
predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former
Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice
Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long
before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL
Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my living
for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the
Super Bowl and March Madness. I did it well enough to be awarded my own 180
pound granite star on Las Vegas Blvd- the only oddsmaker ever inducted into
the Las Vegas Walk of Stars (along with Vegas legends such as Elvis, Frank
Sinatra, Wayne Newton, Dean Martin, Liberace, and Sammy Davis Jr).
But it's my political predictions that have turned heads in the national
media.
In November of 2004, only days before the Presidential election, I went on
CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every
poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax
called it the most accurate prediction of the 2004 Presidential election.
In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get
slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.
In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win
the GOP Presidential nomination and go on to win the Presidency. For the
next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders-
Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It
seemed no one wanted Mitt for President. It seemed no one believed in Mitt.
No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast forward to May 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP Presidential, but
trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney
landslide here at TownHall.
Fast forward to June 2012, when experts forecast a defeat for Wisconsin
Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of
sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union
rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points
right here at TownHall. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic
voter irregularities).
For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in every poll, especially
the all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney
victory. Why? Based on pure gut instincts. This election is Reagan/Carter
all over again. And I always believed the results would be the same: a
Reagan-like landslide.
Today I’m making it official:
Mitt Romney will win the Presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. With an outside shot at
10 points. Electorally it won’t be that close. Romney will win many states
that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio,
Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina,
and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Romney even wins one or two Democratic
"safe states" like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey. On election night
, Democrats will be in shock and mourning as the results come in.
In the days before the first Presidential debate, polls showed Romney
trailing badly in most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one,
the polls were always wrong. They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite
simply they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that
looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama. The
turnout on November 6th will look nothing like 4 years ago.
Here are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on
election day:
· The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards Obama. In the
West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama. In
deep blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even, or
leading in recent polls. In pro union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country
mile. But worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Romney
competitive in Illinois- Obama’s home state. Romney is actually winning by
a landslide in the suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the
country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits
among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40). These are very bad
signs for Obama.
· In 2008 Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of Governorships
. Today Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential
elections are always steered in each state by the Governor- the most
powerful force in state politics.
· After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean
Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South
Carolina, and Utah. Deep blue Democrat states like New York, New Jersey,
Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.
That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these
ultra liberal, high tax states in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof
of the failure of Democrat ideas?
· Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money,
although there is a major question if it's coming from illegal foreign
contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama
overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t
happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks
of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.
· Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended
Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians
did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the
most anti-Christian President in U.S. history. How motivated are Christians?
Did you see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A a few
weeks ago? I predict you’ll see those same lines on election day. It's time
to stand up to a man destroying our values, killing jobs, fatally damaging
our economy, and abandoning Israel. Christians have had enough of turning
the other cheek.
· Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many
states- particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing
like 2008.
Which brings up another important question. What kind of political party
relies on felons and illegals to win elections? The Democratic Party of
Barack Obama.
· The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused,
intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in
record numbers in 2009. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to
Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters
and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.
I know several people who voted for Obama in 2008, but never again. Does
anyone know a McCain voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.
. Jewish voters are not a large percentage of the electorate, but their
numbers are important in places like Florida and Ohio. Democrats will be
shocked at the Jewish vote totals on election day. If I know 100 Jews...the
vote breakdown was around 80% for Obama in 2008. Not this time. Obama has
thrown Israel under the bus and treated Netanyahu with disrespect. This time
around it's about 50% to 55% with my 100 Jewish friends. That's enough of a
change to tip a few key states like Florida and Ohio (and elect Josh Mandel
U.S. Senator in Ohio).
· Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the
challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on election day-
just like Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate
performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger.
This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same
economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans.
The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak
the rich, demonize the business owners, policies.
I predict the same result on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide.
And If I'm wrong- God help The United States of America.
http://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2012/10/12/las_ve | l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 2 Intrade November 2, 2012: Obama 68% Romney 32%
living
180
into
【在 r******g 的大作中提到】
: On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I
: predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
: I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former
: Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice
: Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long
: before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL
: Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my living
: for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the
: Super Bowl and March Madness. I did it well enough to be awarded my own 180
: pound granite star on Las Vegas Blvd- the only oddsmaker ever inducted into
| r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 3 On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I
predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former
Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice
Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long
before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL
Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my living
for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the
Super Bowl and March Madness. I did it well enough to be awarded my own 180
pound granite star on Las Vegas Blvd- the only oddsmaker ever inducted into
the Las Vegas Walk of Stars (along with Vegas legends such as Elvis, Frank
Sinatra, Wayne Newton, Dean Martin, Liberace, and Sammy Davis Jr).
But it's my political predictions that have turned heads in the national
media.
In November of 2004, only days before the Presidential election, I went on
CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every
poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax
called it the most accurate prediction of the 2004 Presidential election.
In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get
slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.
In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win
the GOP Presidential nomination and go on to win the Presidency. For the
next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders-
Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It
seemed no one wanted Mitt for President. It seemed no one believed in Mitt.
No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast forward to May 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP Presidential, but
trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney
landslide here at TownHall.
Fast forward to June 2012, when experts forecast a defeat for Wisconsin
Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of
sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union
rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points
right here at TownHall. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic
voter irregularities).
For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in every poll, especially
the all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney
victory. Why? Based on pure gut instincts. This election is Reagan/Carter
all over again. And I always believed the results would be the same: a
Reagan-like landslide.
Today I’m making it official:
Mitt Romney will win the Presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. With an outside shot at
10 points. Electorally it won’t be that close. Romney will win many states
that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio,
Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina,
and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Romney even wins one or two Democratic
"safe states" like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey. On election night
, Democrats will be in shock and mourning as the results come in.
In the days before the first Presidential debate, polls showed Romney
trailing badly in most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one,
the polls were always wrong. They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite
simply they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that
looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama. The
turnout on November 6th will look nothing like 4 years ago.
Here are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on
election day:
· The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards Obama. In the
West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama. In
deep blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even, or
leading in recent polls. In pro union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country
mile. But worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Romney
competitive in Illinois- Obama’s home state. Romney is actually winning by
a landslide in the suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the
country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits
among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40). These are very bad
signs for Obama.
· In 2008 Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of Governorships
. Today Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential
elections are always steered in each state by the Governor- the most
powerful force in state politics.
· After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean
Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South
Carolina, and Utah. Deep blue Democrat states like New York, New Jersey,
Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.
That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these
ultra liberal, high tax states in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof
of the failure of Democrat ideas?
· Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money,
although there is a major question if it's coming from illegal foreign
contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama
overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t
happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks
of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.
· Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended
Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians
did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the
most anti-Christian President in U.S. history. How motivated are Christians?
Did you see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A a few
weeks ago? I predict you’ll see those same lines on election day. It's time
to stand up to a man destroying our values, killing jobs, fatally damaging
our economy, and abandoning Israel. Christians have had enough of turning
the other cheek.
· Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many
states- particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing
like 2008.
Which brings up another important question. What kind of political party
relies on felons and illegals to win elections? The Democratic Party of
Barack Obama.
· The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused,
intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in
record numbers in 2009. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to
Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters
and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.
I know several people who voted for Obama in 2008, but never again. Does
anyone know a McCain voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.
. Jewish voters are not a large percentage of the electorate, but their
numbers are important in places like Florida and Ohio. Democrats will be
shocked at the Jewish vote totals on election day. If I know 100 Jews...the
vote breakdown was around 80% for Obama in 2008. Not this time. Obama has
thrown Israel under the bus and treated Netanyahu with disrespect. This time
around it's about 50% to 55% with my 100 Jewish friends. That's enough of a
change to tip a few key states like Florida and Ohio (and elect Josh Mandel
U.S. Senator in Ohio).
· Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the
challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on election day-
just like Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate
performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger.
This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same
economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans.
The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak
the rich, demonize the business owners, policies.
I predict the same result on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide.
And If I'm wrong- God help The United States of America.
http://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2012/10/12/las_ve | l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 4 Intrade November 2, 2012: Obama 68% Romney 32%
living
180
into
【在 r******g 的大作中提到】
: On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I
: predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.
: I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former
: Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice
: Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long
: before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL
: Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my living
: for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the
: Super Bowl and March Madness. I did it well enough to be awarded my own 180
: pound granite star on Las Vegas Blvd- the only oddsmaker ever inducted into
| l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | | c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 6 楼主歇了吧。要是哪个赌盘奥巴马的几率低于intrade的，你只要在那个赌盘
赌奥巴马赢，在intrade赌罗姆尼赢。那么你就是白白地捡钱。
举例来说，要是你所谓的那个赌盘里奥巴马的几率只有50%。 那么你下注$50赌奥巴马
赢。你同时在intrade下注 $68赌罗姆尼赢。那么不管谁赢，你都白赚 $18。
楼主要是这点都弄不明白，就别出来秀自己的智商了。 | l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 7 人家只是贴别人的文章，你太过分了。INTRADE全世界都可以买，你那么看好O8，经济
这么差，去买啊？可以赚点钱，弥补你智商不足！
【在 c**********e 的大作中提到】
: 楼主歇了吧。要是哪个赌盘奥巴马的几率低于intrade的，你只要在那个赌盘
: 赌奥巴马赢，在intrade赌罗姆尼赢。那么你就是白白地捡钱。
: 举例来说，要是你所谓的那个赌盘里奥巴马的几率只有50%。 那么你下注$50赌奥巴马
: 赢。你同时在intrade下注 $68赌罗姆尼赢。那么不管谁赢，你都白赚 $18。
: 楼主要是这点都弄不明白，就别出来秀自己的智商了。
| l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 8 人家只是贴文，你太过分了。INTRADE全世界的人都可以买，你那么看好O8，经济
这么差，去买啊？可以赚点钱，弥补你智商不足！careerchange(Stupid) Stupid！呵
呵！
【在 c**********e 的大作中提到】
: 楼主歇了吧。要是哪个赌盘奥巴马的几率低于intrade的，你只要在那个赌盘
: 赌奥巴马赢，在intrade赌罗姆尼赢。那么你就是白白地捡钱。
: 举例来说，要是你所谓的那个赌盘里奥巴马的几率只有50%。 那么你下注$50赌奥巴马
: 赢。你同时在intrade下注 $68赌罗姆尼赢。那么不管谁赢，你都白赚 $18。
: 楼主要是这点都弄不明白，就别出来秀自己的智商了。
| l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 9 哪个竞选人敢说以色列或者韩国或者日本或者印度或者日本或者德国或者英国或者法
国或者泰国或者马来亚或者印尼或者台湾或者越南或者墨西哥或者古巴或者巴西或
者阿根廷 是骗子吗？？？
罗姆尼骂中国人是骗子，你们中国人的后代难道不感到可耻/害羞/愤怒/丢脸/傻蛋
吗??
如果有人说要杀你们中国人全家，你们中国人还亲热的舔他吗？
这么蠢的中国人，连非洲的猴子都不如啊！！！
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: 人家只是贴文，你太过分了。INTRADE全世界的人都可以买，你那么看好O8，经济
: 这么差，去买啊？可以赚点钱，弥补你智商不足！careerchange(Stupid) Stupid！呵
: 呵！
| l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | |
|
