c****p
发帖数: 6474 | 1 Alaska的：
What are slow vehicle turnouts?
Slow vehicle turnouts are pull out areas designated for use by slow-moving
vehicles, enabling them to pull over and allow faster traffic to pass. Signs
indicate where the lane will begin and the distance before you reach it.
By law, if a slow-moving vehicle delays five or more vehicles closely behind
, the driver must pull over as soon as he or she comes to a turnout lane
that is adequate for their vehicle configuration to use and let traffic pass
. If a... 阅读全帖 |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 2 我早上大概看了几篇文章。
说做poll的，对各个人种的turnout rate把握的不准，这个确实很难。今年GOP支持者
turnout 大大超过了DEM传统票仓的 turnout rate. |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 3 因为两党的精英们懂一样东西，叫算数。人家知道，投票数是人口数x turnout
rate.
很明显latino的总投票数在井喷式的增长。就算turnout rate低了，总投票数仍可能不
低。共和党没有足够的latino很难赢得大选。
对民主党来说，保险期间，人家当然希望是高的总人口数，加高的turnout rate,这才
是双保险。而且人家也知道这次CIR过了，功劳大部分是归民主党的。这至少可以让
latino支持个10年。
另外，政客是不会老给empty promise的。巴马事实上也不都给latino empty promise.
人家至少给dreamer发了EAD,不再遣返没有犯法的非法移民。这都是能够钓出latino投
票的原因。 |
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x**********5
发帖数: 161 | 4 今年8月的时候和bf两个又穷又喜欢玩的人去了黄石和犹他的circle。一直懒懒的没有
上来记录一下，眼看着下一年就来了，就把第一次游记贴献给四海为家吧。
高帅富和带小宝宝们的可以绕道了，希望能给像我一样的屌丝男女们一点参考。
先说行程吧。
8.10-8.20 Salt lake city - Yellowstone，Grand Teton - Antelope Island -
Zion - Page(glen canyon dam,horseshoe bend, Lower antelope canyon ) - the
Wave(现场抽签)-Monument valley - Moab(Arches，Canyonlands including the
Needles and Island in the sky, Dead horse point) - Salt lake city
旅行计划（基本按这个走的）
Day 1: 10/08/2012
8:30a: Flight: Southwest home –SLC
11:30p: Car rental: Alamo (10da... 阅读全帖 |
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x**********5
发帖数: 161 | 5 去年8月的时候和bf两个又穷又喜欢玩的人去了黄石和犹他的circle。一直懒懒的没有
上来记录一下，眼看着又一年了，就把第一次游记贴献给四海为家吧。
高帅富和带小宝宝们的可以绕道了，希望能给像我一样的屌丝男女们一点参考。
先说行程吧。
8.10-8.20 Salt lake city - Yellowstone，Grand Teton - Antelope Island -
Zion - Page(glen canyon dam,horseshoe bend, Lower antelope canyon ) - the
Wave(现场抽签)-Monument valley - Moab(Arches，Canyonlands including the
Needles and Island in the sky, Dead horse point) - Salt lake city
旅行计划（基本按这个走的）
Day 1: 10/08/2012
8:30a: Flight: Southwest home –SLC
11:30p: Car rental: Alamo (10days... 阅读全帖 |
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d****y
发帖数: 229 | 6 07/05/2001
开头先点明主题,这是我这次旅行最难忘的一天,为什么?因为这一天的得到的
乐趣最多.
吃过早餐之后,从visalia出发,大概到Sequoia NP也就不到一个小时的路.虽然
是单lane,但是路上有很多turnout的地方,(turnout我也不知道具体怎么翻译,
就是路边分出一块,给停车用的,因为加州有条法律:如果慢车阻碍了交通是要
给罚单的,所以一辆慢车如果后面跟了很多车,它都会到turnout的地方停住,把
后面的车让过,再继续开.)我们开得还是比较快的.路是山路,旁边有标记告诉
你现在的高度是多少,转眼就到了差不多2100米的地方,这时候耳鸣得比较厉害,
不时要咽口水,就和坐飞机一样.想当年爬黄山的时候,最高处是1800多米,可真
是一步步爬上去的,也不觉得有什么反应.现在肯定不行了,想不服老都不行.:(
美国的景区,无论是有山也罢还是没山也罢,公路是一定要有的,就算是不许你驾
自己的车过去,也会有免费的公共汽车载你到各个景点,非常方便.如果有些人就
是喜欢走路的话,也会有专门的trail供人hiking用,满足不同层次人的需要.:)
Sequoia是一种 |
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c*******9
发帖数: 9032 | 7 http://homepages.cwi.nl/~tromp/go/Go.hs
{-# LANGUAGE ScopedTypeVariables #-}
module Go where
import Data.Ix
import Data.List
import Data.Array
import Control.Monad
import Control.Monad.State
data Player = Black | White deriving (Eq, Enum, Show)
data Color = Empty | Stone Player deriving (Eq, Show)
newtype Position p = Position (Array p Color) deriving (Eq)
color :: (Point p) => Position p -> p -> Color
color (Position pos) p = pos!p
class (Show p, Ix p) => Point p where
pointBounds :: (p,p)
... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 8 First of all, vote. Even if 50-50 split at 50+% turnout, it will be far
better than 80-20 at 10% turnout. You do not vote, you do not exist as far
as pols concern.
Then second, political donation. Like it or not, US government is the best
government that money can buy.
标。 |
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h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 9 Iowa turnout 很低 区区几万人完全可以靠ground organization 改变选举结果 trump
没有ground troops Nevada turnout远比Iowa 多 这就不是人为能左右的了 |
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o*****e
发帖数: 551 | 10 两党制选举，两党基本选民相近，所以实质上是由中间选民决定。这次，由于Trump 的品
格太差，近似于疯癫，反而Turn on 许多中间选民，他们感到厌恶，为了制止他才投H
，所以他成了H的最佳助选人。另外他的许多粉丝的表现，实在是猪队友，造成反感，
也Turn on 一些中间选民选H，等于帮H 助选。结果是，三方面热情都高涨。对
Trump显然不利。
就拿我老而言，如果Rand Paul 出线，定会投他，哪怕Pence领军，也可能投他，就是
Trump这个人，投不下手。 |
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a****n
发帖数: 1528 | 11 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: arklin (arklin), 信区: USANews
标 题: NEVADA今年情况超好，希拉里已经稳赢了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov 5 10:32:52 2016, 美东)
early voting turnout比12年奥巴马还高，今年的主力是hispanic
12年奥巴马就是大胜，今年只会超过奥巴马
希拉里拿下NEVADA，TRUMP的path to 270就更难了
今年FL的hispanic turnout也很高，希拉里拿下FL希望很大！ |
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d*********p
发帖数: 1531 | 12 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: DonaldTrump (Make America Great Again!), 信区: USANews
标 题: Michigan已经红！
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 8 15:34:57 2016, 美东)
投票率创历史新高
同时底特律黑人呆家里了
巴马出动忽悠也没用了
密歇根，共和党州长，共和党州参议院，共和党州众议院
这次彻底翻红！！
1 / 125
Josie Polizzi, 5, works on a drawing of Rapunzel at her grandmother's feet
as she fills out her ballot to vote at Pioneer High School on Tuesday,
November 8, 2016. Melanie Maxwell | The Ann Arbor News
Melanie Maxwell | [email protected]/* */
Print Email Paula Gardner | [e... 阅读全帖 |
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s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 13 狗屁党和疮破如此不堪，连战略都被敌人一眼识破了。
这5000难民团非常可疑，八成是疮破雇人招来助选的。
Trump and Republicans settle on fear — and falsehoods — as a midterm
strategy
President Trump walks from the Oval Office to board Marine One to depart
from the South Lawn of the White House on Monday. (Jabin Botsford/The
Washington Post)
By Ashley Parker ,
Philip Rucker and
Josh Dawsey October 22 at 8:21 PM
President Trump has settled on a strategy of fear — laced with falsehoods
and racially-tinged rhetoric — to help lift his party to victory ... 阅读全帖 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 14 https://time.com/5770140/millennials-change-american-politics/?utm_source=
facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content
=20200127&fbclid=IwAR36be58A6V9VvNGfu55yIWFvzqs8zNMpZsfrol02sAtggNde_
tGjMlveqI
How Millennial Leaders Will Change America
BY CHARLOTTE ALTER JANUARY 23, 2020
Love ’em or hate ’em, this much is true: one day soon, millennials will
rule America.
This is neither wish nor warning but fact, rooted in the physics of time and
the biology of human cells... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 15 竞争激烈的威斯康星州法官选举，突然发现一个城市的选票没有输入数据库，目前共和
党候选人选票领先，之前民主党候选人已经宣布胜选
Corrected Brookfield tally puts Prosser ahead after 7,500-vote gain
In one explosive stroke Thursday, the clerk in a Republican stronghold
tilted the tight Supreme Court race in favor of Justice David Prosser by
recovering thousands of untallied votes for the incumbent.
Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus said Thursday that she failed to save
on her computer and then report 14,315 votes in the city of Brookfield,
omitting them enti... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 16 Sep 13 11:56 PM US/Eastern
By BETH FOUHY
Associated Press
NEW YORK (AP) - Republicans have scored an upset victory in a New York City
House race that became a referendum on President Barack Obama's economic
policies.
Retired media executive and political novice Bob Turner defeated Democratic
state Assemblyman David Weprin (WEHP'-rihn) in a special election Tuesday to
succeed Rep. Anthony Weiner (WEE'-nur), a seven-term Democrat who resigned
in June after a sexting scandal.
The heavily Democratic... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 17 By Staff, Associated Press
December 2, 2011
CAIRO (AP) — A spokesman says an ultraconservative Islamist party plans to
push for a stricter religious code in Egypt after claiming surprisingly
strong gains in the first round of Egypt's parliamentary elections.
Final results are to be announced later Friday, but preliminary counts have
been leaked by judges and individual political groups.
Spokesman Yousseri Hamad says the Salafi Nour party expects to get 30
percent of the vote. That would put it i... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 18 By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com
on February 29, 2012
Did Romney eek out a victory in Michigan? No. He actually won by a hefty
margin. Did he lose blue collar voters, showing weakness in that key sector
? No. He carried them quite nicely.
So why don't the results reflect this? Because the primary was invaded by
Democrats who largely voted for Santorum. Had the Democrats not done so,
Romney would not have won a narrow 3 point victory in Michigan but would be
celebrating a 7 point... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 19 March 13, 2012
The Obama administration’s Department of Justice under embattled Attorney
General Eric Holder has rejected Texas’ pre-clearance application for its
new voter ID law. The feds say the state did not prove that the law will not
discriminate against minority voters, especially Hispanics.
DOJ’s head of the civil rights division, Tom Perez, sent a six-page letter
to the Texas director of elections saying that Texas had not “sustained its
burden” of proof under Section 5 of the Voting Ri... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 21
are
are
MI
If
own
在几个关键州，如果O8的voter turnout 能和2008年持平，他就赢了，现在O8派自己的
说法是O8的voter turnout要超过2008年。不关最后结果如何，他们自己是真信，看O8
现在声嘶力竭的演讲风格就知道，他现在根本不care independents，而是认为只要把
自己的基本盘都叫出来投票就赢了。 |
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g***y
发帖数: 1268 | 22 当然美国走上radical的路，罪魁祸首是Clinton。Clinton 之前都是moderate路线。
Clinton是红州Arkansas州长，老布什是副总统不算，Reagan是蓝州California的州长
。Jimmy Carter 是红州Georgia的州长。
Clinton把moderate的路走的太成功。作为Dem的总统，居然不搞大政府，居然 balance
budget，你让GOP怎么活。
等到2000年，GOP选出深红州Texas的州长Bush。他简直就是GOP的stereotype，前总统
的傻儿子，像个不会骗你的修车的。GOP觉得我再怎么moderate，也比不过Gore。人家
毕竟有过去8年做基础。于是Bush还有Karl Rove发明新的战法。一改以往靠赢中间选民
来赢大选。反其道行之，搞提高base的turnout的辟邪剑法。一举赢得两次大选。
Dem一看，这招好使，我也来，我搞个Obama，蓝州的Senator。DEM的stereotype。黑人
，community organizer. Bush的避邪剑法是boost白人evangelical的turn... 阅读全帖 |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 23 Team Obama Preening, Romney Camp Eye-Rolling, Frayed Nerves For Both
In essence, the preening and eye-rolling, the chest-thumping and sarcasm
across the tense terrain of this presidential election reflects the
difficulty of understanding the dimensions of the 2012 political universe.
It can be said Obama remade the known political universe in 2008 when he
boosted turnout in Iowa and most other caucus states and held on to capture
the Democratic nomination over Hillary Rodham Clinton. He simila... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 24 look at the data for Ohio early voting:
Dem: (- 150k from 2008)
GOP: (+100k from 2008)
So far GOP has a net 250k gain in early voting.
2008 Obama won Ohio by 260k votes.
GOP traditionally has much higher turnout on election day. only needs to
beat DEM by 10k to win.
OHIO: GOP has increased their early turnout by more than 100k from 2008.
Dems down 150k. That is 250k net (Obama won in 2008 by 260k). |
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p****a
发帖数: 631 | 25 我也觉得是，大家都料到了GOP的turnout会很高，但是没有料到Dem的turnout更高，特
别是主要城市。 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 How Conservatives Can Win in Blue-State America: Lessons from South Africa's
Opposition
The new conventional wisdom in the aftermath of the 2012 elections is that
Republicans face two challenges: first, that the United States is no longer
a center-right nation, but a center-left one; second, that the country’s
demographic shift away from whites will make it tougher for Republicans to
win votes. The proposed solution is that Republicans must compromise on the
party’s core policies, from immigrati... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 ObamaCare Event in Virginia Draws Overflow Crowd of … One Person »
by Jammie
No stopping that ObamaCare momentum now.
That means gatherings like today’s in Centreville — although the slow
start here is probably not what OFA organizers had in mind. After a
scheduling snafu over the start time, a few people showed up and left before
it actually started. Just one volunteer stayed to help work the phone bank
for the health law, and the event’s organizer bolted after 20 minutes —
although he... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 Boeing Union Accepts Concessions to Keep 777X in Seattle
By Julie Johnsson, Brendan Case and Peter Robison
Boeing Co. (BA) gained a decade of labor peace after its largest union voted
to accept contract concessions in exchange for a promise to base production
of the new 777X jet and three other models at its Seattle hub.
Machinists’ union members late yesterday voted 51 percent in favor of
ratifying the new agreement, which is effective through 2024. The deal would
freeze pensions starting in 20... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 29 SAN ANTONIO, Texas—In an apparent violation of state law, Battleground
Texas officials are exploiting legally protected information to turn voters
out to the polls as part of the Democratic party's quest to paint the Lone
Star State blue, a new undercover video from James O'Keefe reveals.
The footage shows Battleground Texas volunteer Jennifer Longoria saying the
group uses the phone numbers from voter registration forms in later efforts
to boost turnout on election day.
Texas Election Code proh... 阅读全帖 |
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s**r
发帖数: 669 | 30 Prediction 1: Carson 2.7%, Fiorina 8.1%, Christie 5.9%, Trump 31.4%, Bush 16
.3%, Kasich 13.9%, Rubio 10.8%, Cruz 10.9%. Turnout number: 228,000
Prediction 2: Carson 2.9%, Fiorina 5.5%, Christie 5.6%, Trump 31.7%, Bush 16
.5%, Kasich 11.7%, Rubio 9.5%, Cruz 14.3%. Turnout number: 231,000 |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1814 | 31 http://www.zhihu.com/question/31592568
川普者，伟男子也。年近七旬，本当坐拥娇妻，纵情声色犬马，然不忍见民于水火，是
其仁；三度破产，三度复起，是其毅；不囿于意识形态，主动示好普京，不屈强权，呛
声教皇，是其理；花最少的钱，拿最多的票，强势逆袭，席卷宇内，是其智；二十年一
诺，铁肩担道义，振臂而出，是其信；大嘴战群英，横眉冷对举国媒体围剿，是其勇。
仁毅理智信勇，具于一身，奈何天降其人于美利坚。
Q. 共和党为什么这么怕特朗普当选？
首先，问题应该修改一下：现在的共和党的当权派为什么害怕川普当选。
为什么需要修改呢？因为共和党并不害怕，不仅不害怕，而且还支持，这就是这次初选
和民调所展示。
而且，接下来共和党的当权派会被换掉。不支持川普这种思潮的，很大一部分会被选民
换掉。
其次，回答为什么当权派不支持川普的政治主张。一句话，他们本来就代表不同的利益
体。
川普是一个地产商，他的政治主张，比如贸易保护美国，要求资本必须优待美国本土，
优待美国劳工，同布什等为代表的当权的政治主张是不同的。比如，美国的制药企业，
就是支持布什等当权派，他们的利益就是允... 阅读全帖 |
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a****n
发帖数: 1528 | 32 Basically, if Black turnout and Latino turnout stay anywhere near the levels
where they were in 2012, and if women turn out to vote against a man who
openly despises them, and if those zany Millennials can stop Snapchatting
nude photos to each other long enough to actually show up at the ballot box,
Trump is toast. |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 33 Late Thursday night, Trump appeared to correct himself in a tweet: "Thank
you West Virginia. Let's keep it going. Go out and vote on Tuesday — we
will win big. #Trump2016."
West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas confirmed that the
party still wants voters to show up on Tuesday.
"We're hoping for a very large Republican turnout on Tuesday," Lucas said in
an email late Thursday night. "High Republican turnout is essential for our
judicial races and to send a message where West Virgin... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 34 A new Reuters poll has many Republicans worried about the outcome of the
2016 presidential race--and many on the Democratic side ready to pop the
champagne corks.
The poll shows presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading by a
shocking 14 percent over her Republican rival Donald Trump: 47 percent to 33
percent.
Unfortunately there’s one problem with the poll. It is heavily skewed.
The Gateway Pundit reports that of Reuters’ 1,201 respondents, 626 were
Democrats and only 423 were Repub... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 36 2012年大选作弊如此猖獗，就看今年共和党怎么防范作弊了。
* In 59 voting districts in the Philadelphia
region, Obama received 100% of the votes
with not even a single vote recorded for Romney.
(A mathematical and statistical impossibility).
* In 21 districts in Wood County Ohio, Obama
received 100% of the votes where GOP
inspectors were illegally removed from their
polling locations – and not one single vote
was recorded for Romney.
(Another statistical impossibility).
* In Wood County Ohio, 106,258 voted in a
county with ... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 37 * In 59 voting districts in the Philadelphia
region, Obama received 100% of the votes
with not even a single vote recorded for Romney.
(A mathematical and statistical impossibility).
* In 21 districts in Wood County Ohio, Obama
received 100% of the votes where GOP
inspectors were illegally removed from their
polling locations – and not one single vote
was recorded for Romney.
(Another statistical impossibility).
* In Wood County Ohio, 106,258 voted in a
county with only 98,213 eligible voters.
*... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 38 转个帖子，让你们看看为何嗷巴驴为了拉希里，死命反对大选期间投票时必须查验带
Photo的ID:
No Photo ID, No Vote!!
DemocRAT is an efficient voter FRAUD machine, Obama can't be a president
without the Election Fraud, let the FACTs SPEAK:
* In 59 voting districts in the Philadelphia region, Obama received 100% of
the votes with not even a single vote recorded for Romney. (A mathematical
and statistical impossibility).
* In 21 districts in Wood County Ohio, Obama received 100% of the votes
where GOP inspectors were illegally removed from th... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 39 大选就看turnout率，如果川普支持者turnout非常高，除了直接在机器上改数据，还能
怎么作弊？ |
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x**i
发帖数: 63 | 40 看polls的数据，得理解他们的数据是怎么采样的。比如一个100人的poll，就是随机选
取100个登记选民，然后问：“你打算投老床，系拉拉，或者别人？”然后数数，有49
个人回答系拉拉，39个人回答老老床。民调数据就出来啦，系拉拉49%，老床39%。
可是最关键的turnout在民调里没有反应。最近的几个总统选举，turnout比例都没有上
过60%。就是说，回答问题的那100个人里，最后只有50几个人会出去投票。但民调不知
道是哪50几个人会出去投票，是回答系拉拉的人，还是回答老床的人？
在两边人群的投票意愿接近的情况下，民调数据就会比较准。如果投票意愿差别大，民
调就会有偏差。所以大家看看就好，不用太纠结数字。 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 41 http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html
(CNN)Donald Trump is aiming to pull off one of the greatest political
comebacks in history.
The Republican nominee is rebounding from a summer of repeated stumbles that
threatened to undermine his candidacy, underscoring his ability to claw his
way back and stay competitive despite controversies that would sink any
other politician.
Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race
Trump and Hillary Clinton enter t... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 42 802 个 likely voter, Trump 44%, Clinton 39%…
绝大部分 poll 都不是 raw, 而是 weighted, 用 2012 年 voter turnout 来 weigh.
但大家都知道，Trump supporter 对 Trump support 的热情 和 Romeny Supporter 对
Romney 的 support 热情绝对不是一个等级。所以用 2012 的 turnout 来 weigh
poll, 绝对低估了 Trump 的支持率。
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/14/interesting-bloomberg-non-
weighted-poll-of-802-ohio-likely-voters-trump-44-clinton-39/ |
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f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 43 没有了三德子，猪党的general turnout大概也就比primary turnout高一点 |
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f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 44 没有了三德子，猪党的general turnout大概也就比primary turnout高一点 |
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a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 45 抛去主观因素，这些做poll的一个是错误估计了MSM和体制内大佬的表态对普通民众的
影响力。另一个是对turnout的预测。现在基本所有的poll的sample都是dem+5到dem+10
，这样即使trump赢了independent，也不能抵消dem的优势。但是这个turnout的预测要
是错了，所有的poll就都偏了。 |
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a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 46 你自己看看sample里D和R的比例就知道了。这次比上次多了3到4个点的D。
现在I里面Trump领先，拼得就是两者基本盘的turnout，谁turnout高谁就赢。 |
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G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 47 quotes from 538
“Jake Roth
I loathe trump. He is a racist bigot, but that being said I feel like there
might something wrong with the pollsdva here in florida. Hillary is
supposedly winning the educated vote, but I am a delivery Driver in the
super wealthy areas of orlando and the Trump signs are everywhere there.”
Mike Stanley
I feel the same way about Pennsylvania that you do about Florida. Many
people in PA are saying the same neighborhoods that were littered with Obama
signs in 2008 and 2012... 阅读全帖 |
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f********a
发帖数: 4239 | 48 poll如何反映turnout rate？也就是说怎么能知道被调查的人会出来投票？你问到他头
上了他当然会告诉你选谁，但是它可不一定投票啊。川普支持者turnout率高，这个是
没有疑问的吧
: poll的模型基于人口结构和对人群里最终谁会出来投票的预测。
: 现在这些参数都是基于12年的数据，而Trump这边的希望是今年这些参数不适用。
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l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 49 主流媒体的poll都是D+10，太假了。
基于2012总统选举的turnout，应该是D+5。
现在应该不到5%了。
基于2014国会中期选举的turnout，应该是R+5。 |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 50 民主党就是人多。
如果TURNOUT率高，共和党就有问题。
所以民主党大选年战绩好，就是TURNOUT率高。
中期选举就不行了，老百姓都不出来投票。
polls
confidence
margin |
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