l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 1 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3480782/posts?page=46
后面评论不错
Rasmussen and PPD show similar results. So this poll validated independently
. If one does the math on the D+10 polls out there by making them a
realistic D+5 they, too, show a tie game. The election will be decided by
late game choices by the 5% true undecided. |
w****i
发帖数: 2369 | 2 TRUMP在左逼开动国家机器全面围剿的情况下能有这个成绩充分反映了TRUMP具有强大的
民意支持！ |
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 3 主流媒体的poll都是D+10，太假了。
基于2012总统选举的turnout，应该是D+5。
现在应该不到5%了。
基于2014国会中期选举的turnout，应该是R+5。
【在 w****i 的大作中提到】
: TRUMP在左逼开动国家机器全面围剿的情况下能有这个成绩充分反映了TRUMP具有强大的
: 民意支持！
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 4 老川已经挺过最疯狂的抹黑了。
TRUMP (R)CLINTON (D)JOHNSON (L)STEIN (G)UNDECIDED SPREAD
10/14/2016 1974 LV 43.5 41.7 6.9 2.6 5.6 TRUMP +1.8
10/13/2016 2018 LV 41.5 40.9 7.1 2.4 8.1 Trump +0.6
10/12/2016 2013 LV 40.6 41.4 7.4 2.1 8.5 Clinton +0.8
10/11/2016 2001 LV 39.4 42.5 7.3 2.3 7.5 Clinton +3.1
10/10/2016 1915 LV 39.1 42.1 8.5 3 7.3 Clinton +3.0
10/9/2016 1913 LV 38.2 41 8.7 3.2 8.9 Clinton +2.8
10/8/2016 1921 LV 38.8 41.4 9.1 3.1 7.6 Clinton +2.6
10/7/2016 1903 LV 40.5 41 8.3 2.6 7.6 Clinton +0.5
10/6/2016 1888 LV 41.1 41.9 7.8 1.9 8.3 Clinton +0.8
10/5/2016 1896 LV 42.7 40.9 7.6 2.1 6.7 Trump +1.8
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-
presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/ |
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 5 录音门刚出来那几天确实有影响，第二次辩论老川大胜，就抹平了。
下面出来的毫无根据的抹黑，基本就没有影响了。 |
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 6 今天的poll，川普领先扩大至0.6，44.5%:43.9%。老川民调持续反弹中。
Krooked Killery Klinton
independently
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3480782/posts?page=46
: 后面评论不错
: Rasmussen and PPD show similar results. So this poll validated independently
: . If one does the math on the D+10 polls out there by making them a
: realistic D+5 they, too, show a tie game. The election will be decided by
: late game choices by the 5% true undecided.
|
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 7 We were at a huge car show (800 cars) yesterday in beautiful downtown
Lakeland, Florida and the Donald Trump booth had tons of people all day long.
I put a Trump sticker on my shirt, walked around the show, and it seemed
like it was a magnet. Couldn't believe how many people gave me thumbs up or
came over and talked with me in support of Trump. Absolutely amazing!
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: 今天的poll，川普领先扩大至0.6，44.5%:43.9%。老川民调持续反弹中。
: Krooked Killery Klinton
:
: independently
|
D**D
发帖数: 1832 | 8 民意汹涌。
床铺上台第一件事要把大媒体集团拆分。否则话语权都集中在几个寡头手里。 |
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 9 Great
independently
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: We were at a huge car show (800 cars) yesterday in beautiful downtown
: Lakeland, Florida and the Donald Trump booth had tons of people all day long.
: I put a Trump sticker on my shirt, walked around the show, and it seemed
: like it was a magnet. Couldn't believe how many people gave me thumbs up or
: came over and talked with me in support of Trump. Absolutely amazing!
|
g*****w
发帖数: 1413 | |
|
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 11 我的预测是，最后的大选票，老川估计拿48%左右，老婊子拿42%左右。 |
d****i
发帖数: 4354 | |
d****i
发帖数: 4354 | 13 NBC, CNN, ABC之类的民调都可以忽略,选民成份比例都完全不对。
: 顶
【在 g*****w 的大作中提到】
: 顶
|
y******0
发帖数: 616 | 14 up!
independently
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: We were at a huge car show (800 cars) yesterday in beautiful downtown
: Lakeland, Florida and the Donald Trump booth had tons of people all day long.
: I put a Trump sticker on my shirt, walked around the show, and it seemed
: like it was a magnet. Couldn't believe how many people gave me thumbs up or
: came over and talked with me in support of Trump. Absolutely amazing!
|
l****y
发帖数: 8847 | |
f****t
发帖数: 15913 | 16 +1
【在 D**D 的大作中提到】
: 民意汹涌。
: 床铺上台第一件事要把大媒体集团拆分。否则话语权都集中在几个寡头手里。
|
h*******u
发帖数: 15326 | 17 说得对
传媒必须反垄断
【在 D**D 的大作中提到】
: 民意汹涌。
: 床铺上台第一件事要把大媒体集团拆分。否则话语权都集中在几个寡头手里。
|
T*R
发帖数: 36302 | |
y********a
发帖数: 953 | 19 Really amazing!
long.
or
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: We were at a huge car show (800 cars) yesterday in beautiful downtown
: Lakeland, Florida and the Donald Trump booth had tons of people all day long.
: I put a Trump sticker on my shirt, walked around the show, and it seemed
: like it was a magnet. Couldn't believe how many people gave me thumbs up or
: came over and talked with me in support of Trump. Absolutely amazing!
|
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 20 10/17/2016 44.8%: 43.7%
抓猫门过去了，摸门回火了。
接下来川普应该back to issues.
建议一周两个政见发布会，重新回归主题，扩大票基！
independently
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: We were at a huge car show (800 cars) yesterday in beautiful downtown
: Lakeland, Florida and the Donald Trump booth had tons of people all day long.
: I put a Trump sticker on my shirt, walked around the show, and it seemed
: like it was a magnet. Couldn't believe how many people gave me thumbs up or
: came over and talked with me in support of Trump. Absolutely amazing!
|
|
|
m**t
发帖数: 502 | 21 Selection is rigged! The polls is rigged! Trump必胜！
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 这个poll不是被RIGGED的？
|
q***0
发帖数: 225 | 22 LATimes 是左派报纸，USC这种大学又是左派大本营，这poll一定是rigged，呵呵 |
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 23 这个还真不一样，取样是固定的。3000人一直固定，每天问其中400人，更新民调，绝
对反映趋势。
【在 q***0 的大作中提到】
: LATimes 是左派报纸，USC这种大学又是左派大本营，这poll一定是rigged，呵呵
|
o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 24 但是如果他开始这3000人有问题，就没有办法改变取样。
其他POLL不断换人的。LA/USC的POLL就是观察这3000人的态度吧变化。
都是有瑕疵了，所以要所有POLL，综合起来看。
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: 这个还真不一样，取样是固定的。3000人一直固定，每天问其中400人，更新民调，绝
: 对反映趋势。
|
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 25 latimes是左派大本营，USC是学术机构，你觉得这3000人的取样会偏向老川？
从一开始这3000人就固定了，rigged有点难了。lol
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 但是如果他开始这3000人有问题，就没有办法改变取样。
: 其他POLL不断换人的。LA/USC的POLL就是观察这3000人的态度吧变化。
: 都是有瑕疵了，所以要所有POLL，综合起来看。
|
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 26 10/18/2016 44.9% : 43.3%
Trump up 0.1%
Killary down 0.4%
应该跟O'Keefe video, Wikileaks, FBI docs有关。继续发酵中…
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: 10/17/2016 44.8%: 43.7%
: 抓猫门过去了，摸门回火了。
: 接下来川普应该back to issues.
: 建议一周两个政见发布会，重新回归主题，扩大票基！
:
: independently
|
l*****o
发帖数: 19235 | |
l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 28 川普 +0.1
稀婆 -0.4
稀婆流失的快啊
【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】
: Trump +1.6%了
|
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 29 http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html
A couple of other aspects of the Daybreak poll make it differ from most
other surveys:
Typically, polls ask people which candidate they favor or lean toward. Those
who say they don’t know or are undecided don’t get factored into
calculations of candidate support.
The Daybreak poll, by contrast, asks voters, using a 0-to-100 scale, to rate
their chances of voting for Clinton, for Trump or for some other candidate.
As a result, everyone who responds to the survey has some impact on the
results. Because that approach gathers information from everyone in the poll
sample, it should give a better read on the many voters who remain
ambivalent about their choices.
See the most-read stories this hour >>
Using the 0-to-100 scale, however, almost certainly makes the Daybreak poll
differ somewhat from other surveys. As with the bounce, any difference that
results should shrink as election day gets closer and voters become more
certain of their choices.
Finally, some analysts think the Daybreak poll is slightly tilted toward the
Republican side because of how it accounts for the way people voted in the
last election.
All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match
known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example,
or blacks, whites and Latinos.
The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for
how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are
voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President
Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say
they didn’t vote.
The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls
have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election
that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.
If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would
result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would
probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the
final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count
all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after
election day.
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: 这个还真不一样，取样是固定的。3000人一直固定，每天问其中400人，更新民调，绝
: 对反映趋势。
|
H****t
发帖数: 1367 | 30 这个数字肯定还是比较保守的，真正的百分比老床的优势要大得多。老床胜卷在握了。
independently
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: 10/18/2016 44.9% : 43.3%
: Trump up 0.1%
: Killary down 0.4%
: 应该跟O'Keefe video, Wikileaks, FBI docs有关。继续发酵中…
|
