s***5
发帖数: 453 | 1 11-06
538: 291 vs. 246
RCP: 297 vs. 241
electoral-vote: 317 vs. 215
Princeton Election Consortium: 314 vs. 224
huffington pollster: 335 vs. 203 |
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s***5
发帖数: 453 | 2 11-07
538: 295 vs. 242
RCP: 301 vs. 237
electoral-vote: 317 vs. 221
Princeton Election Consortium: 311 vs. 227
huffington pollster: 325 vs. 213 |
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s***5
发帖数: 453 | 3 11-08
538: 302 vs. 235
RCP: 272 vs. 266
electoral-vote: 288 vs. 215
Princeton Election Consortium: 307 vs. 231
huffington pollster: 323 vs. 215 |
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d****n
发帖数: 626 | 4 But Nevada is a famously difficult state for national pollsters to get right
. Its population is transient and many work at night. Furthermore, its
population is over one-quarter Hispanic, and it’s often challenging for
English-language polls to sample Hispanic voters accurately. |
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p******e
发帖数: 897 | 5 Nobody wants to jinx the defeat of the most singular threat to American
democracy to ever crawl out of the WWE Hall of Fame. But something is going
on.
Early voting hasn't been uniformly good for Hillary Clinton's campaign. But
as tens of millions of voters have been making their way to the polls, the
news has been getting progressively better out of the three key early voting
battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada.
If the Democratic nominee sweeps or even picks up two of these thre... 阅读全帖 |
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p******e
发帖数: 897 | 6 based on this R pollster number, HRC is surge on OHIO and Neveda |
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h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 7 这个poll整体低估了床铺 丫FL OH至少赢5%
: based on this R pollster number, HRC is surge on OHIO and Neveda
|
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r*****4
发帖数: 4016 | 8 2012年最后的polls 奥黑 vs 摩门
Rasmussen 48 49
Nov 3 – Nov 5, 2012
CNN 49 49
Nov 2 – Nov 4, 2012
Gallup 48 49
Nov 1 – Nov 4, 2012
Politico/GWU/Battleground 47 47
Nov 4 – Nov 5, 2012
Gravis Marketing 48 48
Nov 3 – Nov 5, 2012
IBD/TIPP 50 49
Nov 3 – Nov 5, 2012
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 47 47
... 阅读全帖 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 9 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。
country
exceptions
and |
|
发帖数: 1 | 10 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。 |
|
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 12 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。
country
exceptions
and |
|
发帖数: 1 | 13 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。 |
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z***o
发帖数: 1254 | 16 fl大幅落后的时候，本版的 pollster tnc 估计也慌神了，承认自己预测失败，一堆牛
鬼蛇神上来打脸的。。.后来一点点搬回来，傻叉们顿做鸟兽散了，一根鸡毛都见不着了 |
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s***l
发帖数: 2769 | 18 原文链接：
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37918303
Donald Trump has defied all expectations from the very start of his
presidential campaign more than a year ago.
Very few people thought he would actually run, then he did. They thought he
wouldn't climb in the polls, then he did. They said he wouldn't win any
primaries, then he did. They said he wouldn't win the Republican nomination,
then he did.
Finally, they said there was no way he could compete for, let alone win, a
general election.
N... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 20 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-09/tc-online-how-did-the-polls-get-it-so-wrong/8011092
Well, folks, this should be the end of industrial political polling as we
know it.
Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump began his tilt at the
presidency as an outlier, and even as recently as voting day was
characterised by many pollsters as the likely loser.
Now he is the US president elect, an outcome that most mainstream observers
regard as an astonishing upset. Comparisons with the Brexit surpr... 阅读全帖 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 21 现在很多pollster也是一路货，就会整几个script，和变暖窖研究一样，一个劲算co2
浓度和气温的关系，以为这玩艺叫科学。稍微有点hard science training就知道你先
要把model整明白。我从一开始就指出过clinton这个牌子出来选是冒险，这个事情和92
年老bush屎诗似的选举一样会载入史册成为经典。原因就是当年的nafta作为92年老
bush兵败如山倒的罪魁，男克竞选的最大卖点就是他不会签nafta.结果男克上台后厚颜
无耻的出卖了蓝州midwest工人阶级，和和党强行通过了nafta，虽然96，00选举这件事
似乎并没有backfire他和主党，那只是被整体经济形势还可以掩盖了，到了今年女克又
来卖tpp，一下子就把人们的痛苦回忆给勾起来了。所以oh根本毫无悬念，pa,mi,wi
all in play就是这道理。老川最后几周的突击绝对不是无用功 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 22 他们刻意掩盖是一个问题，但是他们的model方法论都是错误是事实。这就是为什么包
括和党自己的internal poll也肯定是错的离谱，不然泡软这些人不会跳船跳得这么积
极。
他们用的model和方法论和变暖窖蠢的令人发笑，变暖教认为co2是唯一温室气体，气温
就是co2的单变量函数。这些pollster作的就是纯粹的数据采集然后根据所谓过去30年
的经验模式，得出个阶层各地区一般有多少turn out，把前几次的大选数据简单加个权
就完事了，最多再把以前的poll data拿回去实际投票数据作一下拟合，统统是大一
course project的水平
果。 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 23 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: WCNMLGB (CCC), 信区: Military
标 题: trump阵营惊心动魄的一晚
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 9 17:46:54 2016, 美东)
From ‘Humility to Euphoria’: Donald Trump’s Team Triumphs
By Gabriel Sherman
ShareShareTweetShareShareEmail
Photo: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Shortly after 3 p.m. on November 8, Donald Trump walked into the war room on
the 14th floor of Trump Tower and received rousing cheers from his staff.
While virtually the entire media Establishment was predicting Hillary
Cl... 阅读全帖 |
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e*****g
发帖数: 87 | 24 Donald Trump’s Team Triumphs
By Gabriel Sherman
ShareShareTweetShareShareEmail
Photo: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images。
Shortly after 3 p.m. on November 8, Donald Trump walked into the war room on
the 14th floor of Trump Tower and received rousing cheers from his staff.
While virtually the entire media Establishment was predicting Hillary
Clinton was on track to win the election, Trump’s team remained “nervous
but optimistic,” in the words of one adviser, that their man would pull off
... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 25 老头团队要打台湾牌了，其实巴马之前每届总统开始都想打台湾牌，但都很快发现不是
那么好玩的，面临战争威胁迅速升级，没做好全面对抗的准备都退缩回原地。
Trump’s Taiwan phone call was long planned, say people who were involved
Donald Trump’s protocol-breaking telephone call with Taiwan’s leader was
an intentionally provocative move that establishes the incoming president as
a break with the past, according to interviews with people involved in the
planning.
The historic communication — the first between leaders of the United States
and Taiwan since 1979 — was the product of... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 26 MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime
Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing
to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
"We are behind," Conway said on NBC's "Meet the Press." Clinton, she said, "
has some advantages" |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 27 问题是川普阵营自己也自认落后啊，难道康薇也良心喂狗？
MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime
Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing
to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
"We are behind," Conway said on NBC's "Meet the Press." Clinton, she said, "
has some advantages"
"Ed Rollins, the chair of the pro-Donald Trump Great America PAC, said
Tuesday it will take a miracle for the Republican nominee to win the
election."
关注 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 28 问题是川普阵营自己也自认落后啊，难道康薇也良心喂狗？
MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime
Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing
to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
"We are behind," Conway said on NBC's "Meet the Press." Clinton, she said, "
has some advantages"
"Ed Rollins, the chair of the pro-Donald Trump Great America PAC, said
Tuesday it will take a miracle for the Republican nominee to win the
election." |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 不知道 我问过左派高知这个问题 她就会说fire the pollsters |
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发帖数: 1 | 30 1/6 are stupid enough to admit it to pollsters |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 32 Trump the Dealmaker Projects Bravado, but Behind the Scenes, Faces Rare Self
-Doubt
By GLENN THRUSH and MAGGIE HABERMAN
MARCH 23, 2017
WASHINGTON — President Trump, the author of “The Art of the Deal,” has
been projecting his usual bravado in public this week about the prospects of
repealing the Affordable Care Act. Privately he is grappling with rare
bouts of self-doubt.
Mr. Trump has told four people close to him that he regrets going along with
Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s plan to push a health car... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 33 Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said on Thursday that
misogyny "played a role" her 2016 defeat.
"Certainly, misogyny played a role," Clinton said at the Women of the World
Summit in New York. "I mean, that just has to be admitted. And why and what
the underlying reasons were is what I'm trying to parse out myself."
Her comments marked a rare reflection by Clinton on a presidential contest
that many pundits and pollsters expected her to win with ease. In a question
and answ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 34 最牛的是去年大选前，拉里阵营主动把从PA, WI, MI的pollster给撤走了。而同时
trump却加大了在以上三州和MN的polling.这判断力，也是醉了。 |
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S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 36 http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-towns-filled-with-refugees-ask-who-is-integrating-whom-1508074522
SALZGITTER, Germany—Late this summer, Nadine Langer took her six-year old
to her first day at school. The girl was one of two German children in her
class, she said, amid 20, mostly Syrian, refugees.
“I am not against foreigners,” said Ms. Langer, 41. “But there is a point
where we have to wonder who is integrating whom.”
Germany’s 2015 refugee crisis has largely disappeared from the headlines.
B... 阅读全帖 |
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h****r
发帖数: 258 | 37
folksinger 15 hours ago [-]
Let's take a recent election as an example:
A Bayesian pollster began with a certain set of prior probabilities. That
the college educated were more likely to vote in previous elections, for
example, informed the sample population, because it wouldn't make much sense
to ask the opinions of those who would stay home.
Thus, based on priors that were updated with new empirical data, a new set
of probabilities emerged, that gave a certain candidate a high probability
... 阅读全帖 |
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j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 38 冥猪党加油啊，跑步冲向极左纳粹党。哈哈哈哈
California Democratic Party doesn't endorse Feinstein re-election bid
The California Democratic Party will not endorse Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s re
-election bid this year, with delegates at the party’s annual convention
giving the majority of votes to her top primary challenger, progressive
State Sen. Kevin de Leon.
De Leon got 54 percent of the vote, compared to 37 percent for the more
moderate Feinstein, according to results released Sunday. But neither
Democrat will recei... 阅读全帖 |
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l*h
发帖数: 4124 | 39 Hillary Clinton的前首席策士Mark Penn的看法跟我们的一样，deep state和HRC的竞
选团队构陷Donald Trump：
Stopping Robert Mueller to protect us all
Mark Penn
The “deep state” is in a deep state of desperation. With little time left
before the Justice Department inspector general’s report becomes public,
and with special counsel Robert Mueller having failed to bring down Donald
Trump after a year of trying, they know a reckoning is coming.
At this point, there is little doubt that the highest echelons of the FBI
and the Justi... 阅读全帖 |
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r*********t
发帖数: 4911 | 40 作者提出些个要么证据不足要么毫无证据的可能。好像这些个可能，别人想不到一样，
纯粹凑字数。这种文风，和湾仔完全一致。其实提出可能让大家来讨论，这是可行的。
但是把无数可能都扔出来，却缺乏干货支持，一般我看完这类垃圾文章都有一个好奇，
作者你有时间写这么多可能，就不愿意仔细考虑考虑，哪些可能是傻子都能想出来的，
完全没必要写下来浪费读者时间的？
Is it possible that these high-quality pollsters are simply missing black
respondents who dislike Trump? Sure. That, though, is a theory without any
evidence that I know of。
Could it be that some African-Americans are saying they approve of the
President but they won't end up voting Republican in an election? Of course. |
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发帖数: 1 | 41 唉，你真是不受教。告诉你其他可能，就是让你知道还有其他可能，合理的可能。
: 作者提出些个要么证据不足要么毫无证据的可能。好像这些个可能，别人想不到
一样，
: 纯粹凑字数。这种文风，和湾仔完全一致。其实提出可能让大家来讨论，这是可
行的。
: 但是把无数可能都扔出来，却缺乏干货支持，一般我看完这类垃圾文章都有一个
好奇，
: 作者你有时间写这么多可能，就不愿意仔细考虑考虑，哪些可能是傻子都能想出
来的，
: 完全没必要写下来浪费读者时间的？
: Is it possible that these high-quality pollsters are simply missing
black
: respondents who dislike Trump? Sure. That, though, is a theory without
any
: evidence that I know of。
: Could it be that some African-Americans are saying they a... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 42 猪党药丸，就连反trump的保守派都受不了了。
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-never-conservatives-1538608630
The Never Conservatives
The Kavanaugh fight isn’t about Trump. We’re all deplorables now.
Donald Trump didn’t help Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation with his crude
mockery of Christine Blasey Ford on Tuesday night in Tennessee, but then
this Supreme Court moshpit isn’t about this President. The left’s all-out
assault on the judge is clarifying because it shows that the “resistance”
is really about anything and ev... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 43 Pollster Lee Miringoff told Hill.TV in an interview that aired Thursday that
"Never-Trump" Republicans are essentially extinct.
"The 'Never Trumpers' have vanished in the Republican Party. They're extinct
," Miringoff, the head of the Marist Poll, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha on "
What America's Thinking."
Various "Never Trump" conservatives, however, frequently appear on cable
news to advocate against Trump's presidency, including Bill Kristol, Ana
Navarro, and David Brooks.
Trump has enjoyed high... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********e
发帖数: 240 | 44 中期选举将在下个星期二(Nov. 6). 有人预测 blue wave, 有人说是red tsunami. 像
专业人士Nate Silver 的538网predict 民主党这次有85%的机会赢众议院 (但他也说过
Hillary 在2016年有71.4%的可能性当选总统).
咱这业余人士,也来做个predictions. 纯粹是为了fun.
根据Realclearpolitics 的polls和gut feeling, 我觉得共和党会同时赢参议院和众议
院, 原因有三:
1. 有很多polls非常靠近.
2. 往往参与polling 的人当中, 民主党人更多.
3. 共和党人有些较内敛, 不会告诉pollsters 真正的想法.
先看参议院(Senate):
现有50 Republicans 的席位比较安全, 我觉得以下几个州会给共和党:
a). Nevada- Heller
b). Missouri- Hawley
c). Indiana- Brawn
d). Florida- Scott
e). Montana-Rosendale
预测: 55 共和党, 45 ... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*********e
发帖数: 240 | 45 中期选举将在下个星期二(Nov. 6). 有人预测 blue wave, 有人说是red tsunami. 像
专业人士Nate Silver 的538网predict 民主党这次有85%的机会赢众议院 (但他也说过
Hillary 在2016年有71.4%的可能性当选总统).
咱这业余人士,也来做个predictions. 纯粹是为了fun.
根据Realclearpolitics 的polls和gut feeling, 我觉得共和党会同时赢参议院和众议
院, 原因有三:
1. 有很多polls非常靠近.
2. 往往参与polling 的人当中, 民主党人更多.
3. 共和党人有些较内敛, 不会告诉pollsters 真正的想法.
先看参议院(Senate):
现有50 Republicans 的席位比较安全, 我觉得以下几个州会给共和党:
a). Nevada- Heller
b). Missouri- Hawley
c). Indiana- Brawn
d). Florida- Scott
e). Montana-Rosendale
预测: 55 共和党, 45 ... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 46 即使福斯新闻的民意调查结果都不利于他，他现在只有少输为赢地解决掉墙的问题。宣
布进入紧急状态之前，白宫最好自己找 pollsters 做一次民意调查，看看人民究竟要
如何？如果宣布紧急状态，会更糟还是挽救一点？ |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 47 不是pollster无能，而是受访者太政确。
明明是个闭塞落后无能仇外的老白，一被poll上了，左得比AoC四人帮还左。当然，人
家也是没有办法，现在左逼基本上就是麦肯锡反共，真正的吞舟巨鲸在那儿浪啊浪啊，
他们不敢惹；专门就拿小右棍这种升斗小民开刀，甚至到托儿所去骚扰人家孩子。那人
家明的斗不过你，就玩阴的咯。平时问起来就是最高指示不离口，进了投票舱，才要你
好看。
上次大选，盖洛普，就是poll的祖师爷，公开说过，我能证明上帝存在，从统计上讲。
都被吓得不敢给预测了。敢接这活儿的，都是不懂统计的。 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 48 大家都消消气，好好说话。不过美帝现在两极分化严重，过去那种坐下来心平气和的讨
论的场景已经很难再现了。CBS有个pollster说，90年代末，他因为弹劾林顿组织
townhall,当时双方群众，至少能让对方把话说完，再发言。去年12月，他组织
townhall,两边群众根本就不让对方说话。对方一开口，这边就插话反对。 |
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S*******h
发帖数: 7021 | 49 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: StanMarsh (ojo), 信区: USANews
标 题: 传Zuckerburg要代表民主党出来选总统
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 3 12:59:15 2017, 美东)
Joel Benenson, the chief strategist in Clinton’s 2016 DOOMED campaign has
been hired to conduct research for Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan’s
nonprofit, the Zuckerberg-Chan initiative. It gives Zuckerberg access to
yet another top pollster as rumors of a potential presidential run grow ever
louder.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-02/president-zuck-fac... 阅读全帖 |
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