s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 1 Morning After To-Do List:
1. Take over the Democratic Party and return it to the people. They have
failed us miserably.
2. Fire all pundits, predictors, pollsters and anyone else in the media who
had a narrative they wouldn’t let go of and refused to listen to or
acknowledge what was really going on. Those same bloviators will now tell us
we must “heal the divide” and “come together.” They will pull more
hooey like that out of their ass in the days to come. Turn them off.
3. Any Democratic membe... 阅读全帖 |
|
y***q
发帖数: 55 | 2 Donald Trump’s protocol-breaking telephone call with Taiwan’s leader was
an intentionally provocative move that establishes the incoming president as
a break with the past, according to interviews with people involved in the
planning.
The historic communication — the first between leaders of the United States
and Taiwan since 1979 — was the product of months of quiet preparations
and deliberations among Trump’s advisers about a new strategy for
engagement with Taiwan that began even before he be... 阅读全帖 |
|
r*****2
发帖数: 3513 | 3 有区别吗？
Rasmussen Reports就是个右逼的poll
Time magazine has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning
polling group."The Washington Post called Rasmussen a "polarizing pollster."
John Zogby said that Scott Rasmussen has a "conservative constituency."The
Center for Public Integrity listed "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a paid
consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign. |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 4 President Trump’s Real Fear: The Courts
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/06/opinion/president-trumps-real-fear-the-
courts.html?ref=opinion
When President Trump doesn’t get what he wants, he tends to look for
someone to blame — crooked pollsters, fraudulent voters, lying journalists.
Anyone who questions him or his actions becomes his foe.
Over the past few days, he’s added an entire branch of the federal
government to his enemies list. |
|
m*******e
发帖数: 1598 | 5 BY TINA AMIRTHA8 MINUTE READ
This story contains interviews with Christian Kästner, assistant
professor at Carnegie Mellon University; Amy Hirotaka, state policy and
advocacy manager at Code.org; and Janet Siegmund, researcher at the
University of Passau.
In order to expose more students to computer science, 17 states have passed
legislation to create basic math and science requirements in the curriculum,
rather than count them as electives. But lawmakers in Texas have made
computer program... 阅读全帖 |
|
h***n
发帖数: 1275 | 6 很多人猜是pence
不过这事要 back fire
美国人民对这种soft coup, secret cabal，欧洲贵族宫廷政治非常非常厌恶和反感
现在的poll已经失效了
除了华人这种没脸没皮的，和底层宏博，没人敢对pollster说自己支持trump
结果20年trump又当选 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 7 中期选举将在下个星期二(Nov. 6). 有人预测 blue wave, 有人说是red tsunami. 像
专业人士Nate Silver 的538网predict 民主党这次有85%的机会赢众议院 (但他也说过
Hillary 在2016年有71.4%的可能性当选总统).
咱这业余人士,也来做个predictions. 纯粹是为了fun.
根据Realclearpolitics 的polls和gut feeling, 我觉得共和党会同时赢参议院和众议
院, 原因有三:
1. 有很多polls非常靠近.
2. 往往参与polling 的人当中, 民主党人更多.
3. 共和党人有些较内敛, 不会告诉pollsters 真正的想法.
先看参议院(Senate):
现有50 Republicans 的席位比较安全, 我觉得以下几个州会给共和党:
a). Nevada- Heller
b). Missouri- Hawley
c). Indiana- Brawn
d). Florida- Scott
e). Montana-Rosendale
预测: 55 共和党, 45 ... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****t
发帖数: 10738 | 8 Andrew Yang的core base是网上的nerd，这些人基本很难被pollster问到。所以他的实
际支持率应该远超poll。 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 9 颤抖吧，床粪，哈哈哈哈。。。
Americans expect President Trump to get roughed up in a House impeachment
but soldier on to win reelection, according to the latest poll on the White
House crisis.
In the Zogby Analytics survey provided exclusively to Secrets:
Likely voters, 53% to 40%, support the House impeachment inquiry.
By a margin of 47%-41%, they support impeachment.
And by a wide gap of 46% to 33%, voters “believe President Trump will
win re-election in 2020.”
Pollster Jonathan Zogby said, “May... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 10 疮聚聚以前曾经开除过自己竞选班子的民调员，就因为如实报告对丫不利的结果。现在
竞选团队的民调员为保住饭碗只说好听的，所以疮聚聚认为90%反对弹劾，狐狸台竟敢
说超过半数支持弹劾，疮聚聚立刻派司法部长巴尔找默多克训话。
"From the day I announced I was running for President, I have NEVER had a
good @FoxNews Poll," Trump tweeted. "Whoever their Pollster is, they suck.
But @FoxNews is also much different than it used to be in the good old days.
With people like Andrew Napolitano, who wanted to be a Supreme Court
Justice & I turned him down (he’s been terrible ever since), Shep Smith, @
donnabrazile (who gav... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 11 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/22/obamas-approval-holdin
WASHINGTON -- In spite of 9.2 percent unemployment and overall "satisfaction
" with the state of the country at a two-year low, Americans continue to
give President Obama higher approval ratings than experts would predict
based on the economic climate.
The latest Gallup poll marks a 43 percent approval rating and a 49 percent
disapproval rating for President Obama. A newly released CNN poll has the
president's approval rating at 45 ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 13 "up to 2009 support for gay marriage
increased at a rate of 1% a year. Starting in 2010 the change in the level
of support accelerated to 5% a year.
all age groups are rethinking their position.
This is not about a
generational shift in attitudes, this is about people changing their
thinking as they recognize their friends and family members who are gay or
lesbian.” |
|
m******1
发帖数: 19713 | 14 因为gay marriage的问题不是选民们主要关心的问题，所以影响不了什么选票
经济问题才是 #1 priority。 |
|
g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 15 A new Public Policy Poll shows that 57% of Maryland voters would vote to
uphold the state’s new marriage equality law in a likely referendum this
fall, with 55% of African-Americans expressing support.
Marylanders for Marriage Equality, the coalition working to pass the
referendum, released the poll results Thursday morning. The poll shows a 12-
point increase from March in the number of voters who would vote yes, where
an affirmative vote would uphold the new marriage equality law. In the
lates... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 16 What a polling firm calls "the Obama effect" continues among black voters;
this time, with a dramatic 48-point swing in Florida.
In September, Public Policy Polling found just 23% of Florida black voters
supported marriage equality. Now not only do black voters support marriage
equality, they favor it by a wide margin, 49% to 31%. It wasn't enough,
though, to turn the entire state in favor of marriage with voters as a whole
still opposed 45% to 42%.
PPP has identified a national trend of suppor... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
N*****e
发帖数: 1094 | 18 【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
发信人: NewNote (新天地), 信区: ChinaNews
标 题: 川普与普京通话 似没提解除对俄制裁
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jan 29 08:36:55 2017, 美东)
2017年1月28日午后，美国总统川普与俄罗斯总统普京进行他上任后的首次通话，希望
改善两国关系，加强打击国际恐怖主义的合作。 (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
大约在周六（1月28日）正午过后不久，白宫发言人斯派塞（Sean Spicer）发表推文说
，在结束了与德国总理默克尔45分钟的通话后，总统川普（特朗普）正在与俄罗斯总统
普京通话。据悉，这是川普1月20日宣誓就职后首次与普京通话，且是经过事先安排的
一次对话。
从斯派塞发布在推特上的照片显示，川普坐在白宫椭圆办公室，正在通过电话与普京交
谈。而美国副总统彭斯、国家安全顾问弗林、白宫幕僚长普利巴斯以及总统高级顾问班
农等都悉数在场。
白宫方面，周六并没有对外界透露太多的谈话内容。在周五与英国首相一起举行的新闻
发布会上，川普并没有表态他将是否会考虑取... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
a**********s
发帖数: 50 | 20 http://drudgereport.com/flashmm.htm
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak
early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the
first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election
study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the
Democratic can |
|
x****b
发帖数: 584 | 21 Pew Poll: Trust In Government Hits Near-Historic Low
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126047343
April 18, 2010
Americans' trust in government and its institutions has plummeted to a near-
historic low, according to a sobering new survey by the Pew Research Center.
Only 22 percent of Americans surveyed by Pew say they can trust government
in Washington "almost always or most of the time" -- among the lowest
measures in the half-century since pollsters have been asking the ques |
|
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 23 http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/democrats-are-losing-women/
Ever since the abortion debate burst on the American political scene in the
wake of the Roe v Wade decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, women have voted
more Democratic than men. Particularly unmarried women have since typically
backed Democratic candidates – attracted by their pro-choice positions –
by
between ten and twenty points in each election.
But now the trend has stopped! In one of the most important findings in the
post-election... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 如果不提佩林，左倾的有线电视网MSNBC不知道怎么活，有关佩林的内容超过其他有线
电视网
Sarah Palin: MSNBC's Obsession With Her
10:03 AM 1/27/2011 by Paul Bond
share
* Comments (196)
7
Illustration: Kat Shady
This week's Hollywood Reporter magazine tallies how many times the left-
leaning network discusses her (it's more than Fox) and how a reality star
with sinking approval ratings is vital to its survival.
The following article appears in this week's issue of The Hollywood Reporter
on newsstands Thursday.
Now that Keith Olbermann... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 By Brendon S. Peck
Confronted with an unwelcome intrusion, employees at a Target store in New
York rejected unionization and dealt a blow to the grand plans of the UFCW.
That average Americans continue to stand against these job-killing, profit-
leaching forces is most encouraging. But make no mistake, the fight is far
from over.
Labor unions are in decline and desperate. Today, union membership is under
12% of the U.S. workforce -- it was over 20% in the 1980's. Among retail
unions, like the... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 President Obama's latest "pivot to jobs" has turned out to be more of a
sharp left turn. First he announced a new $447 billion stimulus of new
spending and temporary tax cuts. Then on Monday he proposed to offset it
with $1.5 trillion over 10 years in permanent tax hikes. Mr. Obama knows
that little of what he's proposing will pass the Republican-controlled House
, so the conventional wisdom has it that the President is trying to emulate
Harry Truman by setting up a "do-nothing Congress" as a re... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 (Reuters) - Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, seen as a rising star in the
Republican Party, won re-election on Saturday as voters largely ignored his
nine poorly funded challengers.
"You've chosen to give me another four years as your governor," he told
supporters at his Baton Rouge campaign headquarters less than an hour after
polls closed. "We've got a lot more work to do over these next four years."
With more than 99 percent of precincts reporting, Jindal carried 66 percent
of the vote with h... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 By Jerry Shenk
Tea Parties and the Occupiers have a few commonalities, but, although many
media outlets have attempted to do so, it's a mistake to equate the two
phenomena.
The American left has been pining for a liberal balance to the popular Tea
Party/grassroots groups since the latter reached numbers sufficient to
assure that its collective voice would be heard. But the "movement" the
left produced will end badly for the progressive politicians whom, through
their ignorance, the Occupiers ex... 阅读全帖 |
|
b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 29 Ron Paul won a straw poll in Illinois Saturday, the latest in a string of
such wins for the GOP presidential hopeful. Supporters say the mainstream
media are ignoring him, but such polls are not scientific and they can favor
an enthusiastic following like Paul's
Ron Paul won another Republican straw poll this weekend, in Illinois this
time.
It’s starting to become routine for Paul, points out The State Column, an
online source of state political news:
“Paul has consistently demonstrated his abil... 阅读全帖 |
|
B**W
发帖数: 2273 | 30 Washington (CNN) -- The gridlock and partisanship that threatens to ruin
Christmas in Washington could be an election year gift for President Barack
Obama's campaign.
A growing number of voters , 50% compared to 44% in March, trust Obama to
solve the nation's problems while the percentage of those with faith in
congressional Republicans is slipping, according to a CNN/ORC International
Poll.
CNN Poll: President's approval nearing 50%
For the Obama team, the poll numbers seem to validate the pres... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 65 Percent of Union Members Say Obama is More Liberal Than They Are
(CNSNews.com) - President Barack Obama has tried to portray himself as a
champion of the average American against a wealthy elite. However, a new
Rasmussen poll found that 65 percent of union members say they believe Obama
is more liberal than they are.
The poll also found that 59 percent of likely voters think Obama is more
liberal than they are, an increase of 7 points from last month.
When asked if in political terms Presiden... 阅读全帖 |
|
m******1
发帖数: 19713 | 32 【 以下文字转载自 QueerNews 讨论区 】
发信人: globalized (麻球), 信区: QueerNews
标 题: Florida's Black Voters Show Big Shift on Marriage
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 10 18:43:05 2012, 美东)
What a polling firm calls "the Obama effect" continues among black voters;
this time, with a dramatic 48-point swing in Florida.
In September, Public Policy Polling found just 23% of Florida black voters
supported marriage equality. Now not only do black voters support marriage
equality, they favor it by a wide margin, 49% to 31%. It... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 33 (Reuters) - French President Francois Hollande's approval rating slipped
sharply in July, a poll showed on Monday, as enthusiasm for the Socialist
leader suffered amid weak economic news, unfavorable headlines and a raft of
heavy tax rises.
Hollande's popularity dropped five percentage points to 53 percent while
that of his prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, was steady at 56 percent,
pollster LH2 said in a survey published in left-leaning magazine Le Nouvel
Observateur.
July has been Hollande's ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 34 Friday night, Fox News' Sean Hannity hosted an exclusive one hour special on
our latest film "The Hope and The Change." This documentary follows the
surprising personal journeys of 40 Democrats and independents from across
America who supported Obama in 2008.
Writer/Director Stephen K. Bannon, former Democrat pollster Pat Caddell, and
I were interviewed by Hannity about the film he called the best documentary
he has ever seen. During the one hour special, viewers saw exclusive clips
from the fi... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 35 On Labor Day, 1980, Jimmy Carter’s presidential re-election campaign was
ahead by 4 points. On November 4, 1980, the incumbent lost by 10 points. As
I learned firsthand back then, a lot can happen in two months.
Today, as the RealClearPolitics average shows Mitt Romney down by less than
a point in his White House bid, the challenger needs “the fierce urgency of
now,” to borrow a phrase often used by Barack Obama in 2008--although he
hasn’t used it much since. Ronald Reagan had that sense of ur... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*****e
发帖数: 789 | 36 In an election season that has produced reels of negative ads and dizzying
spin, more Americans find that President Barack Obama's ads remain honest,
giving his campaign a 12-point lead over that of his Republican opponent,
Mitt Romney, according to the Yahoo!/Esquire poll.
Many Americans appear to agree with Romney pollster Neil Newhouse's
statement that "We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-
checkers," though perhaps not in the way the Romney campaign would like.
Among the g... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 37 我就说过，不要相信这些所谓的民调。这些亲民主党媒体的民调是想让ROMNEY的支持者
在投票日呆在家里。无论支持谁，请记住，一定要做好选民登记，总统投票日走出家门
去投票。美国将来要中美洲化或仍然维持第一强国的地位，把握在你我手中！ |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 by Jammie
Yup, sure looks like respondents to polls also thought Obama got his ass
kicked all over the stage Wednesday night.
There’s no debate about it — Mitt’s bouncing high.
After what many saw as a landslide victory during the first presidential
debate last Wednesday, Mitt Romney led President Obama by two percent in a
national poll released today, winning support from 49 percent of voters
nationwide, compared to Obama’s 47 percent.
Going into the debate, Obama led by two points,... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
l******x
发帖数: 1697 | 40 要小心pollster的trick.
他们为了让自己的数据看上去更有戏剧性，会动态调整data pool
据说最近的poll故意加大了共和党员的比例，造成戏剧效果。
it is all business. |
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 41 一方面是自己的理性分析（而不是本版很多为了几百美元税钱，为了AA,为了同性恋，
为了黑人而骂奥巴马的），一方面是poll。
第一，poll还是很准的，以前那个啥效应（黑人在民调中被种族主义者支持，但投票时
被种族主义者抵制的）现在根本不灵了。美国民主发展到今天，民族平等已经深入人心
，极少数种族主义者和极右派不会影响投票结果。如果你看最近两个月的poll,
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-elect
看各个摇摆州的很多不同的poll，奥巴马只是在NC明显落后,FL略微落后一点，
VA几乎是平手，NV,CO,IA,WI,NH一直领先，几乎没有落后过，所以这些州其实根本算不
上真正意义上的战场州。就剩下一个Ohio,奥巴马也是一直领先3-5%，大家觉得Ohio是
战场州，是因为它在历史上的重要和那个魔咒，其实奥巴马过去几年在这个州做了那么
多工作来积攒人气争取民心，罗姆尼想两个月就抢过来太难了。
最后唯一吃惊的是奥巴马赢了FL，所有的分析就很明确，没有FL，罗姆尼就直接game
over了，其他州都不用看了... 阅读全帖 |
|
T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 42 Rasmussen 在2000年大选后成立，2004和2008的poll还是很准的，还有就是比较稳定没
太大跳跃性。而且统计的presidential approval rating和选O8的%比较接近，符合情
理。
Gallup跳跃性比较大，但好在历史数据丰富。但最近被DOJ的诉讼压力被迫修改
presidential approval的统计方式，导致O8的approval rating 比较高，和选O8的比
例脱节，看着奇怪。
Zogby最垃圾。 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 43 October 30, 2012 Doug Johnson
The new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of
1,000 likely Ohio voters – taken from last Monday through Thursday – shows
Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. That
represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but
reflects a race that remains statistically tied. Even the swing is within
the margin of error, so it is possible the candidates were tied last week
when Romney lead by 2 perc... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 44 We all have more or less partisanship. But that doesnt mean we cant be
professional at the same time. 538 site bias is a little bit more than RCP,
maybe 0.5 % which you can say just a statistics noise. Any other site is
more truthful to you other than single pollster? |
|
w**d
发帖数: 956 | 45 有兴趣的可以看看读者的评论，indiana 的人民终于开始认清tea party extremist 的
危害了。
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/mourdock-senate-rape-abortio
Mourdock trails by 11 points in Indiana Senate race, new poll shows
Mourdock (AP/File)
Richard Mourdock--the Indiana Republican Senate candidate who sparked a
controversy during a debate last month when he said he opposes abortion even
in the case of rape because "it is something that God intended to happen"--
is now trailing Democrat Joe Donnelly by 11 points, a new state po... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 46 Tab owns most infamous pollster title in USANEWS. |
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 47 #6, According to Ramssaon (which all GOP deems a reliable pollster), if
sitting president job approval rate is or above 50%, he is very likely win
re-election. According to Gallup, Obama approval rating is 50% or more for
whole Oct. month now, and right now it's 51%. How do you reconcile two views
? |
|
l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 48 Mitt Romney will score a vital victory in Florida, a pollster for one of the
state’s most influential newspapers confidently predicted Saturday after
his latest survey gave the Republican challenger a six-point lead.
“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Brad Coker
who conducted the Mason-Dixon poll for the Miami Herald. “Will it be five
points? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly.
“I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going
to have a recount-r... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 50 Most reputable pollster Pew just reported today national poll O:R is 50: 47
.
For all swing states, O leads except Florida. |
|
