m****g
发帖数: 2215 | | m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 2 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-09/tc-online-how-did-the-polls-get-it-so-wrong/8011092
Well, folks, this should be the end of industrial political polling as we
know it.
Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump began his tilt at the
presidency as an outlier, and even as recently as voting day was
characterised by many pollsters as the likely loser.
Now he is the US president elect, an outcome that most mainstream observers
regard as an astonishing upset. Comparisons with the Brexit surprise abound.
The result underscores how badly modern polls serve us. Polling is an
enormous, lucrative and influential industry – Australia has lost sitting
prime ministers over poll results. But the US election outcome shows how
unreliable polls can be at predicting our political futures. | m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 3 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036
By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections
had been left in shambles — just like the ones a year ago that all-but
ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party’s
presidential nomination.
Headed into Election Day, polling evangelist Nate Silver’s 538 website put
Clinton’s odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight,
the site had more than flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent
chance of winning.
Trump had notched hugely significant upset victories in Florida, North
Carolina and Wisconsin — critical swing states where almost every public
poll and most private projections had shown Clinton ahead.
The Republican nominee’s surprisingly strong performance, which left the
race on a razor’s edge at the publication of this story, seemed to at least
partly validate his claims that many polls “just put out phony numbers.” | G****e
发帖数: 11198 | | b*****e
发帖数: 53215 | 5 这倒不一定 媒体习惯性装逼看不起红波 装成傻逼了
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里花钱买的。都说过 N回了。
| y****w
发帖数: 3747 | 6 哈哈 赞
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 这倒不一定 媒体习惯性装逼看不起红波 装成傻逼了
| R*********0
发帖数: 3242 | | w**d
发帖数: 2334 | | j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 9 不是poll错了，是这帮傻B没有良心，weight dem +10. 整一个傻B。 |
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