s***5
发帖数: 453 | |
B*Q
发帖数: 25729 | |
s***5
发帖数: 453 | |
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 4 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
I get why Silver wants to hedge. It’s not easy to sit here and tell you
that Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning. Everything inside us
screams out that life is too full of uncertainty, that being so sure is just
a fantasy. But that’s what the numbers say. What is the point of all the
data entry, all the math, all the modeling, if when the moment of truth
comes we throw our hands up and say, hey, anything can happen. If that’s
how we feel, let’s scrap the entire political forecasting industry. |
l********k
发帖数: 14844 | |
s***5
发帖数: 453 | |
q***0
发帖数: 225 | 7 我以前说过几次了，Nate Silver 出名后有点滑头，担心出错砸了招牌，主观的调整数
据 |
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 8 11-06
538: 291 vs. 246
RCP: 297 vs. 241
electoral-vote: 317 vs. 215
Princeton Election Consortium: 314 vs. 224
huffington pollster: 335 vs. 203 |
B*Q
发帖数: 25729 | |
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 10 我这是做个笔记，做个参考，自娱自乐
【在 B*Q 的大作中提到】
: 左媒叫得越欢
: 西坡末日越近
: rigged！
|
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 11 11-07
538: 295 vs. 242
RCP: 301 vs. 237
electoral-vote: 317 vs. 221
Princeton Election Consortium: 311 vs. 227
huffington pollster: 325 vs. 213 |
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 12 11-08
538: 302 vs. 235
RCP: 272 vs. 266
electoral-vote: 288 vs. 215
Princeton Election Consortium: 307 vs. 231
huffington pollster: 323 vs. 215 |
