z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 1 Looks like all 50 states (maybe a bit early to call for VA) for the
presidential election
and the Senate race
it remains to see if Obama wins the popular vote (my guess is yes) |
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f**********t
发帖数: 51 | 2 Yes, but he is right because of very accurate polling results. The polling
agencies are really professional and have done an exceptional job! |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 3 Agreed. He simply used rigorous statistical methodology on the same polling
results |
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k**l
发帖数: 2966 | 4 If it's that simple, why don't we all go intrade to make good fortune?
polling |
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t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 5 概率统计是数学的一个分支, 是一门科学.
在现有的理论基础上, 比较准确的统计结果是可以做到的. |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 6 在美国的怎么fund intrade acct? |
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k**l
发帖数: 2966 | 7 他们只是不收paypal和美国issue的信用卡而已，
check, wire, 其他国家发行的信用卡。。。都行 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 8 Warner Todd Huston October 7, 2014
A new poll of how people feel about Obama’s presidency is not good for team
Obama. It appears that most respondents feel his presidency is a failure.
A new IBD/TIPP poll which ended Friday, last week found that 53 percent
characterized Obama as a failed president. This versus only 41 percent who
rated it a success. And to show that nearly everyone has an opinion about
this president, only 6 percent said they weren’t sure.
Interestingly, and more ominously for O... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 Brandon Rottinghaus and Justin S. Vaughn | February 13, 2015 11:30am
Measuring Obama against the great presidents
As Presidents Day approaches, so too does our annual reflection about our
greatest presidents and how our current chief executive stacks up against
them. Although much of this commentary is of the arm-chair analyst variety,
a recent cottage industry of systematic investigations has emerged. Famed
Harvard historian Arthur Schlesinger Sr. deserves most of the credit for the
advance of ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1814 | 10 你们知道他为什么要曝光奥巴马吗？
Larry Bland, Nate Spencer, Donald Young 这三个人也是Trinity United Church的
同性恋人员，在2007年不到40天时间里相继死于“意外”
看到奥巴马这么对待自己的老相好们，Larry Sinclair觉得只有主动出击，曝光这件事
，才能让自己活的久一点 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 11 Triumph of Trumpism
Financial Times writer Edwards Luce proclaims Trumpism has Triumphed,
Whoever Wins the Republican Nomination.
Sinclair Lewis, the American novelist, is supposed to have said: “When
fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the
cross”. It has long been easy — far too easy — to write off Donald Trump
as a self-promoting celebrity with little chance of winning the White House.
His chances remain low (Nate Silver, the guru of election data, puts the... 阅读全帖 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 12 Nate Silver poll+ predicts 92% for Trump. |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 13 Sanders. Nate Silver forecast in MI was 99% for Clinton... 92% for Trump |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 14 No Turning Point: What Happens in Wisconsin Stays in Wisconsin; Hell to Pay
In the wake of an expected victory in Wisconsin, Ted Cruz gave the expected
victory speech.
“Tonight is a turning point. It is a rallying cry,” said Cruz to an elated
crowd of his supporters.
Nonsense. What happens in Wisconsin stays in Wisconsin.
Nomination Analysis
Cruz won 36 of 42 Wisconsin delegates. In the Path to a Trump Victory, Nate
Silver estimated Trump needed to win 18 Wisconsin delegates.
Trump won six, leav... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 15 Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of
recent polls in five states.
Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut,
Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries
did Trump lose ground.
State by state, lets take a look.
California
In the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points
over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.
This was barely enough to tip th... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****o
发帖数: 9235 | 16 Nate Cohn
10:51 pm ET
Invalid Date
By my count, the Trump delegate slate leads in 29 of 54 unbound Pennsylvania
delegate slots. Another 13 were pledged to the winner of their district,
while the "Not Trump" or Cruz delegates had 9. |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 18 赛程就是安排的对领头羊有利。那个Nate Silver为首的说如何contested convention
的神棍专家们都是大傻逼。当初版上屡屡有人拿538那些傻逼预测说事 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 19 太绝对了，2012 Nate silver就是纯粹用民调数据+贝叶斯成功预测了所有50州的结果
。不过今年的乱象让先验分布比较难搞，哈哈。 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 20 太绝对了，2012 Nate silver就是纯粹用民调数据+贝叶斯成功预测了所有50州的结果
。不过今年的乱象让先验分布比较难搞，哈哈。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 21
你是说那个只给trump 2%的概率赢提名？nate silver脸还没肿么 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 28 Nate 的创新在于吧预测棒球的那一套应用于政治，而且给不同的民调数据加权重，让
政治预测从gut feeling进化到定量科学 |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 这不是Nate Sliver的网站么，这是一个民主党的liberal网站 |
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D****e
发帖数: 2283 | 30 中新网8月4日电 美国《星岛日报》3日发表文章《特朗普支持群体是谁？》称，特朗
普参选一年多以来独领风骚的选战成绩，已经成为观察人士惊叹、困惑与争相破解的特
朗普现象。当前，主流解释有两项：一是经济焦虑，第二项解释是族群怨恨。出口民调
说明，最激发选民投票的因素是移民议题，而不是经济议题。同时，这批选民倾向于执
行最强硬的移民政策。
文章摘编如下：
7月19日，特朗普在共和党全国代表大会上被提名为该党总统候选人，意味他将正式竞
逐总统宝座。特朗普参选一年多以来独领风骚的选战成绩，已经成为观察人士惊叹、困
惑与争相破解的特朗普现象。
当前，主流解释有两项：一是经济焦虑，由于经济安全感下降，薪资停滞不涨、就业机
会萎缩，底层集体反抗精英，所以，特朗普崛起的根源在于经济；第二项解释是族群怨
恨，特朗普把民众关心的经济、移民、反恐等问题一一揭示，并且找到墨西哥移民、穆
斯林等为替罪羊，唤起民众种族主义情感与种族排外情绪。
尽管任何社会现象都是复杂与相互交织的，单因素解释显然没有多因素解释更全面。然
而，凡事要学会抓主要矛盾，切勿眉毛胡子一把抓。那么，经济焦虑与族群怨恨，何为
主要矛盾？
如果原... 阅读全帖 |
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m***r
发帖数: 798 | 31 过去一周，川普的民调暴跌，统计分析家西瓦尔(Nate Silver)撰文说，如果现在投票
，喜莱莉93%机会可获胜，主流舆论出现川普可能崩溃、甚至退选的消息。但川普会崩
溃吗？我们相信，他的选举运动不会崩盘，他也不会退选，且还可维持高支持度，因为
他的支持者不受民调和川普的负面表现影响。不过我们也有理由相信，川普过去一周的
言论，已彻底暴露他“丑恶”真面目，让不少选民产生恶劣观感。如果川普11月败选，
过去一周就是他走向败选的最重要转捩点。
川普过去一周说了不少错话和丑话，包括总统选举受操纵(但没有提供任何证据)，但对
他造成最大杀伤的，莫过于批评为美国捐躯的卡恩上尉家属。本身是穆斯林的卡恩(
Khizr Khan)，7月28日在喜莱莉的提名大会发言，挑战川普的反移民言论，质疑川普不
知美国宪法规定人人生而平等，美国宪法不反对移民。但忍受不了任何批评的川普恼羞
成怒，连续多天以苛刻言词批评卡恩，谈话充分暴露无理、无情和无耻。
川普指卡恩无权批评他(卡恩当然有权，因为川普反穆斯林，这是攻击宗教自由，涉及
卡恩和所有穆斯林的信仰)，又指责卡恩批评他没读过宪法(卡恩并没有说川普没读过宪
法，... 阅读全帖 |
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l********k
发帖数: 14844 | 32 If Trump wins, will Nate Silver shut 538 down? Obviously not. So quit
talking
out of your ass.
Cheap shit. |
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发帖数: 1 | 33 --The Birth of a Nation, 由黑人强奸犯Nate Parker导演的旨在煽动种族仇恨和黑人
暴乱的影片在烂西红柿上被专家打分96/100 (相比之下，The Hillary's America 在同
样的专家手里仅得四分）。
然而在公众打分的imdb上这个电影还没放映就被踩成屎，得分不到五分（１０分制）。 |
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S******8
发帖数: 24594 | 34 http://www.conradmblack.com/1221/november-8th-predictions
Before outlining my predictions for November 8th, let me first offer this
disclaimer: I am no statistician, do not consult computer algorithms, and
have no experience as a pollster. I am happy to leave all of that to
professionals like Nate Silver. However, my experience as an author of
American history, biographer of two American presidents (who between them,
ran ten times for national office from 1920 to 1972), and as someone who has
cl... 阅读全帖 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 35 在FL, PA最新的Poll里也领先了。如果只按照最近一波民调，Trump赢了。不过538/
Nate Silver要对
近期的平均，加权，而且用概率，所以现在只是上涨，离50%还差不少。Prediction
Market看上去是跟528一起走的 |
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S*****n
发帖数: 692 | 41 Nate Silver 亲自下命令改模型调低川普胜算，你说可信不可信？ |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 43 这个错是 Nate 有点太成功后的自大，加了些主观因素在模型里，其实统计数据是准的
。这恰恰说明主观因素常常带有感情色彩，容易出错，而统计数字是没错的。不过人家
承认了错误，修改了模型，不像川粉死不承认，毫无根据的乱说
打： |
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l********k
发帖数: 14844 | 44 Nate silver 是个比方舟子还恶心的小人。 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 45 老头胜选可能性才13%, 如果错了Nate Silver靠预测巴马胜选积累起来的名声就毁了。 |
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c***g
发帖数: 357 | 46 1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’
Seriously
3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom
5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The
Nomination
6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
538 and Nate Silver ... 阅读全帖 |
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d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 47 Nate Silver的名声就是赌一次赌中了而已。 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 48 老头胜选可能性才13%, 如果错了Nate Silver靠预测巴马胜选积累起来的名声就毁了。 |
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c***g
发帖数: 357 | 49 1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’
Seriously
3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom
5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The
Nomination
6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
538 and Nate Silver ... 阅读全帖 |
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d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 50 Nate Silver的名声就是赌一次赌中了而已。 |
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