l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Brandon Rottinghaus and Justin S. Vaughn | February 13, 2015 11:30am
Measuring Obama against the great presidents
As Presidents Day approaches, so too does our annual reflection about our
greatest presidents and how our current chief executive stacks up against
them. Although much of this commentary is of the arm-chair analyst variety,
a recent cottage industry of systematic investigations has emerged. Famed
Harvard historian Arthur Schlesinger Sr. deserves most of the credit for the
advance of this knowledge, thanks to his 1948 effort to poll the nation’s
top historians for Life magazine. Subsequent polls took place in 1962 and
1996, with his son, Arthur Schlesinger Jr., lead the latter investigation.
Today, there are numerous additional examples, with each survey utilizing
its own methodological approaches. Given the diversity of approaches, the
relative consensus of these studies’ results can be surprising. The top
tier of greatness polls consistently reports the same handful of presidents
—Lincoln, Washington, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, followed closely by
Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt—while the bottom of the list also exhibits
continuity, with names such as Harding, Buchanan, Pierce, and Hoover
consistently among the most ignominious.
Barack Obama & presidential greatness
Like many of his predecessors, Barack Obama’s standing in such polls,
whether respondents are experts or members of the mass public, has evolved.
For example, a Gallup poll conducted in early February 2011 found that 5% of
Americans viewed Obama as the nation’s greatest president. A year later,
another Gallup poll revealed 10% of Americans viewed Obama as an outstanding
president, but more than 60% believed he would go down in history as
average, below average, or poor. By 2013, the number viewing Obama as
outstanding had dropped to 6%, while those selecting average or worse had
increased to 71%. This past June, a Quinnipiac University survey of over 1,
400 Americans found Obama was viewed as the best modern president by 8% of
respondents, while 33% viewed him as the worst president since World War II.
(For comparison purposes, only 28% of respondents chose George W. Bush as
the worst president during the same time period.)
Scholarly perspectives have showed less variance, partly a function of being
less subject to the over-exuberance of regular citizens in the early days
of the Obama presidency and, so far, less disappointment by his performance
in the years since. Even so, there is limited evidence of a slight decline
in expert perceptions of the 44th president’s relative greatness. The
earliest major scholarly poll that included Obama was a 2010 Siena College
Research Institute survey, which ranked him as the 15th greatest president.
A 2012 Newsweek survey rated him as the 10th best since 1900 and a History
News Network survey of historians gave him an overall B- grade in 2013.
Statistical mastermind Nate Silver’s metaanalysis of multiple scholarly
polls placed Obama at #17, just behind John Adams and before Bill Clinton.
New evidence: More of the same, but worse
We decided to conduct our own, original poll of several hundred members of
the American Political Science Association on the topic of presidential
greatness and President Obama’s current place in history (more on the
methodology below.) The results of our survey of political scientists with
expertise in the American presidency include findings similar to other such
polls and some intriguing new evidence, as well.
First, President Obama ranks 18th overall, but beneath the surface of the
aggregate figures lurks evidence of significant ambivalence. For example,
those who view Obama as one of the worst American presidents outnumber those
who view him as one of the best by nearly a 3-1 margin. Similarly, nearly
twice as many respondents view Obama as over-rated than do those who
consider him under-rated. One area where there is significant expert
consensus about the president, however, concerns how polarizing he is viewed
as being - only George W. Bush was viewed as more a more polarizing
president.
Next, Obama does not perform well on more specific dimensions of
presidential greatness, often viewed as average or worse. For example, he is
the midpoint in terms of both personal integrity and military skill (e.g.,
10th of 19 in both categories), but falls to 11th when it comes to
diplomatic skill and 13th with respect to legislative skill. Even so, when
asked which president should be added as the fifth face of Mt Rushmore,
Obama ties with James Madison as the 7th most popular choice.
What can we take away from this? First, it is easy to infer that scholars
and the public alike expected greatness from Obama early on and awarded it
to him prematurely. Compare, after all, the fact that Obama’s first ranking
in a major greatness poll was at #15; one must go back a half-century to
Lyndon Johnson to find a president who entered the rankings at a higher
number (#10), and LBJ was a well-known figure on the national stage who
entered office after the national tragedy of his predecessor’s
assassination. Second, scholars seem to hold Barack Obama in high regard
personally, but view his skills and performance as mediocre to poor. Few
think of Obama as an excellent president, while many more rate his
presidency quite low, with the bulk of experts appearing to give him a
passing grade but not one that would get him on the Dean’s list.
It could be worse for Obama, of course. Barring unforeseen scandal, he’s
unlikely to become significantly less popular, and as he enters his post-
presidency, he is likely to experience the same slow rise up the greatness
polls George W. Bush has had. Whether that is a sluggish climb or more
noteworthy, as the case has been with Truman and George H.W. Bush, remains
to be seen, but there is still plenty of time left in his presidency to lay
the foundation for future claims on the empty spot to the right of Lincoln
on Mount Rushmore’s granite façade.
*****
About the survey: 391 members of the American Political Science Association
’s Presidents & Executive Politics section, the premier organization of
experts of the American presidency, were invited to complete the online
survey, which was administered by Brandon Rottinghaus of the University of
Houston and Justin S. Vaughn of Boise State University. 162 surveys were
completed online between May and November 2014. For more information, please
contact the authors. | m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 2 美国人太傻太笨太蠢，所以必然会被两边抽，pia pia pia
当初选了一只黑猩猩，是错误的.
选上之后现在这个猩猩基本上无为而治，经济还凑合，是 cleanest shirt in your
laundry basket. 已经狠不错了。
可惜太傻太笨太蠢的美国人，还有猥琐男们，地富反坏右们，却不断指责这只猩猩
首先是自己选了，然后不负责不承担责任
其次是功过不分，就知道whine
,
the
s
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: Brandon Rottinghaus and Justin S. Vaughn | February 13, 2015 11:30am
: Measuring Obama against the great presidents
: As Presidents Day approaches, so too does our annual reflection about our
: greatest presidents and how our current chief executive stacks up against
: them. Although much of this commentary is of the arm-chair analyst variety,
: a recent cottage industry of systematic investigations has emerged. Famed
: Harvard historian Arthur Schlesinger Sr. deserves most of the credit for the
: advance of this knowledge, thanks to his 1948 effort to poll the nation’s
: top historians for Life magazine. Subsequent polls took place in 1962 and
: 1996, with his son, Arthur Schlesinger Jr., lead the latter investigation.
| l**m
发帖数: 33 | | w*****s
发帖数: 2896 | | d*b
发帖数: 4184 | 5 难道还能有比奥黑驴更差的？？？？阿明转世了还是水扁移民了。
【在 l**m 的大作中提到】
: 等下届更差的上来。
| X***R
发帖数: 2410 | 6 还真不好说。
上面老总看大家日子太好了，于是故意操纵民意和选票，选些怪人上来，
然后看见老百姓在政策下拼命挣扎，分成两派像疯狗一样互咬，哈哈大笑。
估计要等到熊国的舰队开到家门口才会醒过来。
【在 l**m 的大作中提到】
: 等下届更差的上来。
| r******t
发帖数: 8967 | |
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