m*****s
发帖数: 4427 | 1 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-early-polls-suggest-a-post-debate-bounce-for-clinton/
Every scientific poll we’ve encountered so far suggests that voters thought
Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in Monday night’s debate. In fact, some
of them showed her winning by a wide margin — wide enough to make it a good
bet (though not a guarantee) that she’ll gain in horse-race polls against
Trump over the next week or so.
But so far, we’ve seen just two polls released that tested Clinton’s
standing against Trump after the debate. They have pretty good news for
Clinton, but I’d recommend some caution until we get more data.
The first poll is from Morning Consult, which shows Clinton leading by 3
percentage points in a matchup that includes third-party candidates — that
’s a 4-point swing toward Clinton from the 1-point Trump lead that Morning
Consult showed before the debate. In a head-to-head matchup against Trump,
Clinton leads by 4 points, up from a 2-point lead before the debate.
The other survey is from Echelon Insights, and it shows Clinton leading
Trump by 5 percentage points. In theory, that would be consistent with a
bounce for Clinton, since she led Trump by just 1 to 2 points overall before
the debate, based on FiveThirtyEight’s projection. But it’s hard to know
for sure because Echelon has surveyed the race only once before — just
after the Republican convention, when they showed Clinton leading Trump by 1
point.
Apart from these polls, the only other data we have is from the USC Dornsife
/Los Angeles Times and UPI/CVOTER national tracking polls, but I’d
discourage people from paying very much attention to them. It’s nothing
against the polls themselves — in fact, I’ve defended the USC/LA Times
poll’s methodology in the past — it’s just a matter of timing. Each poll
uses a 7-day field period, which means that only about one-seventh of their
interviews were conducted after the debate. I’d wait a couple of days
before making too much of these surveys — until they consist mostly of post
-debate interviews.
There are other reasons to be cautious, too. Polls conducted over a one- or
two-day period, like the Morning Consult and Echelon Insights polls, can
suffer from low response rates, since the pollsters won’t have time to
recontact voters who they missed the first time around. That could plausibly
bias the poll toward whichever candidate has the most enthusiastic
supporters at the time of the poll, making it less representative. Many
traditional pollsters prefer their polls to be in the field for three or
four days, and we won’t see any results from polls like those until Friday
at the soonest.
Another complication is that it can be hard to separate voters’ reaction to
the debate itself from their reaction to the media’s reaction to the
debate. By that I mean: Clinton has had some tough news cycles lately, so
getting some better headlines could help her, and that could plausibly also
affect the polls. Or maybe not, since Trump has a knack for turning the news
cycle on its head.
One last admonition: When evaluating a post-debate bounce, consider whether
the poll was an outlier before. For instance, the most recent NBC/Wall
Street Journal poll showed Clinton ahead by 6 percentage points nationally,
on the high end of her range heading into the debate. By contrast, the most
recent Rasmussen Reports poll had Clinton trailing Trump by 5 points.
Clinton is more likely to improve her numbers in the next Rasmussen poll
than in the next NBC poll, but that could reflect reversion to the mean as
much as a debate bounce.
Overall, there are some tentatively positive signs for Clinton — but not
more than that, yet. At the moment, our polls-only model shows Clinton with
a 58 percent chance of winning; polls-plus shows her with a 56 percent
chance. But our forecast models don’t make any special assumptions about
the debate, and they’ll take several days to catch up to whatever impact it
has or hasn’t had. You can track the latest polls as they’re added to the
model here.
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @
natesilver538 | a******e
发帖数: 5411 | 2 i only look at rally hugeness. | w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 3 but the hands are really small
【在 a******e 的大作中提到】
: i only look at rally hugeness.
| d**z
发帖数: 104 | 4 太好了，我们龙虾一族下一个四年的食物券有着落了，ldy继续努力不要停，我们都指
望你这个中流砥柱！
小小龙虾敬上 | m*****s
发帖数: 4427 | | f********a
发帖数: 4239 | 6 True，先不说poll是否可信。数字上是这样的。
不过只是很小的变化，看未来三天吧
thought
some
good
against
【在 m*****s 的大作中提到】
: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-early-polls-suggest-a-post-debate-bounce-for-clinton/
: Every scientific poll we’ve encountered so far suggests that voters thought
: Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in Monday night’s debate. In fact, some
: of them showed her winning by a wide margin — wide enough to make it a good
: bet (though not a guarantee) that she’ll gain in horse-race polls against
: Trump over the next week or so.
: But so far, we’ve seen just two polls released that tested Clinton’s
: standing against Trump after the debate. They have pretty good news for
: Clinton, but I’d recommend some caution until we get more data.
: The first poll is from Morning Consult, which shows Clinton leading by 3
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