发帖数: 1 | 1 作者：SS Wang
链接：https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/23592369
来源：知乎
著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。
"How did this happen?!" they cry.
你哭着对我说，事情怎么会成这样？
You want to know how this happened? You want to know how America resorted to
bigotry and racism? You want to know how we let a TV star with no
experience get to the White House? You want to know why we couldn’t stop
being stupid enough to listen to what you had to say?
I can explain.
你想知道为什么这一切会发生？你想知道为什么美国人会转向偏执狂和种族主义？你想
知道我们为什么会选一个没经验的脱口秀明星当总统？
那我就大发慈悲... 阅读全帖 |
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t******r
发帖数: 8600 | 2 Mom of Murdered Obama Gay Lover Speaks Up
May 26, 2013 by Dylan
https://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2010/07/25/mom-of-murdered-obama-gay-lover-
speaks-up/
by Dr. Eowyn
In late May, Wash. DC-based investigative journalist Wayne Madsen had a
bombshell revelation about Obama’s membership in a Chicago gay club, Man’s
Country. Madsen also reported on Obama’s sexual relationships with other
men, including named D.C. politicians and Donald Young, the openly-gay choir
-director of the church in Chicago of ... 阅读全帖 |
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z**m
发帖数: 391 | 3 题外话：想象一下，以后的中国各大城市一堆黑人挥着尼日利亚国旗，一堆穆斯林挥着
沙特国旗反对我国新任国家主席是什么样子。--宁南山
这篇写非常好，从美国白人的角度说明为什么他们要选Trump。原文用词精辟，我
翻译太渣，大家尽量看英文，翻译仅供对照。
原文由Velostodon发在Reddit。
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---------
"How did this happen?!" they cry.
你哭着对我说，事情怎么会成这样?
You want to know how this happened? You want to know how America
resorted to bigotry and racism? You want to know how we let a TV star with
no experience get to the White House? You want to know why we couldn’t stop
be... 阅读全帖 |
|
g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 4 上周四早上我发过一个贴，说选举既然Nate Silver
说是70：30，谁赢都正常。不赌.
当时拿来比较的例子是垃圾火箭队和马刺队。
我说火箭队和马刺队常规赛比赛，不能赌。
结果居然真的闯爷赢了。
火箭也...赢了。
Below is my old post:
发信人: chebyshev (......), 信区: Stock
标 题: There is a solid path for a Trump-win situation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 4 13:38:23 2016, 美东)
According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
not
believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
Now, let's think about the sim... 阅读全帖 |
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e*******e
发帖数: 9616 | 5 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – "Cap"[1]
Ray Allen – "Ray Ray",[2] "Jesus Shuttlesworth"[3] (after his character
in the movie He Got Game),[3]
Rafer Alston – "Skip To My Lou"[4]
Chris Andersen – "Birdman"[5]
Greg Anderson – "Cadillac"[6][7]
Carmelo Anthony – "Melo"[8]
Nate Archibald – "Tiny"[6][9]
Gilbert Arenas – ""Agent Zero", "The Hibachi"[10][11]
Trevor Ariza – "Cobra"[12]
Paul Arizin – "Pitchin' Paul"[9]
Ron Artest – "Metta World Peace" "Ron Ron"[13]
St... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******0
发帖数: 5247 | 6
首先，这个人叫Nate Solder
其次，NFL选的是潜力，看学校有蛋用，Colorado不给力是教练SB，好歹出了两个第一
轮好不。
此人315 pound, body fat小于7.5%
power-cleaned 415 pounds
hang-cleaned 473 pounds
4.88 forty
32 inch vertical jump
拍子不选，扣子肯定选
现在拍子如果Light回来，还能顶几年，正好培养Nate。Nate一旦技术成型，绝对是长
期Pro Bowl |
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J********i
发帖数: 50662 | 7 The Portland Trail Blazers signed Head Coach Nate McMillan to a two-year
contract extension, it was announced today by General Manager Rich Cho. “
With his NBA and USA Basketball track record, Nate has established himself
as one of the premier minds in the game of basketball,” said Cho. “What
Nate has accomplished in the last few years is truly remarkable and getting
his contract extended was a top priority for the franchise and me.”
黑大叔确实不错 |
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c****g
发帖数: 37081 | 8 FIRST TEAM
OFFENSE
Quarterback — Cam Newton, junior, 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, Auburn.
Running backs — LaMichael James, sophomore, 5-9, 185, Oregon; Kendall
Hunter, junior, 5-9, 200, Oklahoma State.
Tackles — Gabe Carimi, senior, 6-7, 327, Wisconsin; Nate Solder, senior, 6-
9, 315, Colorado.
Guards — Rodney Hudson, senior, 6-2, 282, Florida State; John Moffitt,
senior, 6-5, 323, Wisconsin.
Center — Chase Beeler, senior, 6-3, 285, Stanford.
Tight end — Michael Egnew, junior, 6-6, 235, Missouri.
Wide ... 阅读全帖 |
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t**********r
发帖数: 2019 | 9 剧情和对话上与2代比是没出彩，但是我倒觉得3代比2代更注重人物形象的刻画了。比
如触及Nate和他'祖先'的关系，和sully的情感等等。lalaphin在egames那边贴过一个
网上的评论，分析的不错。
和Elena的爱情戏比较隐晦，也很少触及，但是有一点我还是有点感触。在几个关卡一
起历险之后，直到飞机场去救sully得时候，我一直想，编剧是不是nc了，经过2代的剧
情两人应该是板上钉钉了，不管后来又有何变故，nate如果真爱elena的话会让她像以
前1代2代里那样跟着他出生入死么？恰恰在这个时候，剧情演到nate一个人翻墙而过，
把elena留在这边，说了一句类似于 I almost lost you before (in UC2), I can't
let it happen again 之类的话。这个片段按说比较老套，但是我觉得也到位了。 |
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q*****g
发帖数: 1 | 10 ◆原 名：Gossip Girl Season 1
◆译 名：流言蜚女 第一季
◆演 员：Blake Lively ... Serena van der Woodsen
Leighton Meester ... Blair Waldorf
Chace Crawford ... Nate Archiblaid
Taylor Momsen ... Jenny Humphrey
Penn Badgley ... Dan Humphrey
Ed Westwick ... Chuck Bass
Matthew Settle ... Rufus Humphrey
Kelly Rutherford ... Lily van der Woodsen
Nan Zhang ... Kati Farkas
◆类 型：剧情 校园
◆片 长：每集45分钟左右
◆本季首播：美国时间2007年9月19日
◆文件大小：每集约350MB
◆国 家：美国CW电视台
◆语 言：英语
◆字 幕：YDY-YTET字幕组出品中文字幕
◆官方网站：
http://cwtv.com/shows/gossip-girl... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 11 看阁下进一步的发言，便知是此间行家。与本论坛美国新闻版上的众假货
有云泥之别。如果我的了解正确，Nate Silver 的预测手法就是试图克服
这信息量与杂讯量共存的问题。简单地说：
1. 538 网站从来不自己作民调。它是将其他新闻机构所作的民调层层叠叠
地堆积起来，然后再据此进行它自己的分析与预测。
2. 数学理论方面，其实就是高中程度的贝氏定理(Bayesian Theory)。
3. Nate Silver 厉害的地方便是将贝氏定理的条件机率的部分玩转地十分
细致。依各州选民的种族，性别，年龄来进行预测。
4. Obama 的两次总统选举，51 个选区(50州+DC特区)共 102 个样本点中，
Nate Silver 准确地预测了 99 个。
谢谢阁下从 538 网站转来的两张图。可是我最喜爱的其实下面这张分时
走势图。清楚地说明该网站对此次美国总统大选在各个不同时点的预测。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 12 看阁下进一步的发言，便知是此间行家。与本论坛美国新闻版上的众假货
有云泥之别。如果我的了解正确，Nate Silver 的预测手法就是试图克服
这信息量与杂讯量共存的问题。简单地说：
1. 538 网站从来不自己作民调。它是将其他新闻机构所作的民调层层叠叠
地堆积起来，然后再据此进行它自己的分析与预测。
2. 数学理论方面，其实就是高中程度的贝氏定理(Bayesian Theory)。
3. Nate Silver 厉害的地方便是将贝氏定理的条件机率的部分玩转地十分
细致。依各州选民的种族，性别，年龄来进行预测。
4. Obama 的两次总统选举，51 个选区(50州+DC特区)共 102 个样本点中，
Nate Silver 准确地预测了 99 个。
谢谢阁下从 538 网站转来的两张图。可是我最喜爱的其实下面这张分时
走势图。清楚地说明该网站对此次美国总统大选在各个不同时点的预测。 |
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c***s
发帖数: 70028 | 13 从新富阶层，可以频繁出境的外企金领，到越来越多的普通人，“翻墙”成了一种时尚乃至必需，“墙”外更低更稳定的物价是他们共同的目标。而这堵物价之“墙”形成的秘密是什么？
在这个物价上涨风潮来袭的年末，“去海外打酱油”已是最新购物口
2011年元旦，深圳罗湖口岸，从香港购物归来等待入关的内地游客。
境外购物已不是高端人群的专利，普通人群也开始“去海外打酱油”
新年购物季，香港海港城LV专卖店门口排长队等候购物的顾客，其中以内地人居多。
物价在上涨，人民在干嘛？他们在“翻墙”。
苏小姐住在北京CBD一座高档公寓里，打开她的冰箱，你能看到一个三口之家的饮食习惯、烹饪风格和这位频繁往来中美两地的母亲对生活的精打细算。六个月前从洛杉矶回到北京，为了逃离本地复杂的供应链和日益攀升的价格，她带回了小儿子的奶粉，十几瓶难以叫出名字的西餐调料，甚至几串香蕉和一袋1.36公斤、 21.2美元的KIRKLAND咖啡豆。
拥有多国工作经验的FRANK与自己的妻子住在北京北部的中产阶级别墅区，他们已经形成了境外购物习惯。“除了油盐酱醋之外，几乎不在内地市场购买任何物品。”这个家庭习惯前往欧洲郊区的OUTLET购买衣... 阅读全帖 |
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c***s
发帖数: 70028 | 14 一对新人于下午先在当地教常行礼，戚黛黛透露整个过程非常感人，令大家纷纷感动落泪。
新郎为娶张嘉儿 甘愿吃虫子
据香港媒体报道，前港姐冠军张嘉儿于温哥华时间九月十二日下嫁圈外男友Nate，两人的亲友均从香港、美国等地飞往温哥华观礼，好朋友戚黛黛则担任圈中代表到当地赴宴。
手指发胀戴不了戒指
一对新人于下午先在当地教常行礼，戚黛黛透露整个过程非常感人，令大家纷纷感动落泪：“嘉儿挽着爸爸走进教堂，她一走进来就开始有点落泪，到读誓言的时候，基本上都感动哭了，一班姐妹、一对新人都眼眶湿润。”她又大曝行礼时的尴尬事：“嘉儿帮丈夫戴戒指时，很难戴上对方的手指，因为彩排时教堂人都说，紧张的时候手指会发胀，如果没能顺利套上去都是正常的，结果到了婚礼时，她丈夫手指突然办胀很多，嘉儿用了很多时间、很尽力才戴到手指上。”
晚上，一对新人又于酒店举行西式婚宴，现场约三百名宾客出席，场面很大！期间，两人分别向对方及家人致谢词，向来说英语的新郎却“被迫”转Channel，戚黛黛笑言：“当新郎谢嘉儿及家人时，嘉儿要他说中文，他说得真好笑，因为他中文不是很好，突然要他说都翻译不及，挺可爱。”席间又播放了嘉儿为丈夫偷偷制... 阅读全帖 |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 16 A just released USA Today/Gallup Poll finds swing state voters are now split
48-48. comparing last poll, Obama up 4.
The battle between 538 Nate and Gallup: Nate scores 1. |
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d**t
发帖数: 1671 | 17 就是不知道真假，这个逃生的女孩，网名 Nate Bentley.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2013/02/elisa-lams-death-
Nate Bentley
You are all making me angry with these stupid conspiracies. How many of you
have ever been to skid row? How many of you have ever tried booking a hotel
in Los Angeles and the Cecil was top of the list as the cheapest per night?
None of you commenting are taking her death as hard as I am because I lived
in the Cecil for a month before escaping my own death. Last summer, I ran
away after d... 阅读全帖 |
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l*h
发帖数: 4124 | 18 中国留美学生代购蓖麻毒素被判十六年
一名曾在美国纽约大学就读的中国男子因在网上代购剧毒的蓖麻毒素，结果找的卖家是
联邦调查局（FBI）卧底探员，８日被曼哈顿一家联邦法院判处１６年监禁。
被告名为乐成（音译），现年22岁，曾在纽约大学就读物理学专业，不久离校，在独自
租住的曼哈顿一处公寓内做起了网络代购生意。
检察官说，2014年12月，在一家名为“进化”的网络黑市网站上，向网名为“黑暗马尔
特”的商贩打听购买蓖麻毒素事宜，称自己有不少二手买家。
“黑暗马尔特”实际上是当时在调查黑市不法行为的联邦调查局卧底。
法庭文件显示，乐成在同“黑暗马尔特”聊天时写道，“如果你能把（蓖麻毒素）做成
简易药片，肯定会大卖。”他还在发给对方的信息中说，把蓖麻毒素药片混入普通维生
素药瓶，目标对象每天吃一片，“迟早会因摄入的剧毒药片而死掉”。
蓖麻毒素是一种致命剧毒物，而且没有解药。美国媒体先前报道，“基地”组织曾计划
用蓖麻毒素、氰化物等致命毒剂对美国发动恐怖袭击。
乐成在聊天记录中还写道，“毕竟我们卖的东西是用来杀人，风险越小，越有效，也就
越好。”
联邦调查局探员把假的蓖麻毒素邮寄给乐成。提货时，乐... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 19 影评家们高潮连连。票房会不会破纪录？将军们会去看吗？我对黑人没兴趣，所以不太
可能去看。
The Revolutionary Power of Black Panther
TIME Staff
The RevolutionaryPower of Black Panther
Marvel’s new movie marks a major milestoneBy JAMIL SMITH
The first movie I remember seeing in a theater had a black hero. Lando
Calrissian, played by Billy Dee Williams, didn’t have any superpowers, but
he ran his own city. That movie, the 1980 Star Wars sequel The Empire
Strikes Back, introduced Calrissian as a complicated human being who still
did the right t... 阅读全帖 |
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t**x
发帖数: 20965 | 20 Chinese Woman Admits to Cheating on U.S. College Admission Exam
April 2, 2018, at 4:55 p.m.
BY NATE RAYMOND
BOSTON (Reuters) - A Chinese woman pleaded guilty on Monday to cheating on a
college entrance exam, becoming the latest person to admit wrongdoing amid
U.S. probes into international students who use imposters to gain admission
to American universities.
Leyi Huang, who had been attending Pennsylvania State University using a
student visa, pleaded guilty in federal court in Boston to conspi... 阅读全帖 |
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k*****e
发帖数: 22013 | 21 30.Ru Paul
出生于1960年11月17日，由其易装角色RuPaul出名，他参与了许多电视电影，且发行了
许多专辑。
29.Scott Evans
出生于1983年9月21日，因为在ABC肥皂剧《One life to Live》中扮演了一个同性恋警
察Oliver Fish，他也是电影演员Chris Evans的弟弟
28.Darry StephensBo
出生于1974年3月7日，因出演电视节目《Noah's Arc》中Noah Nicholson一角而出名。
此后，他还出演了了《Boy Culture》《Another Gay Movie》,在2007年高调出柜。
27.Tom Ford
出生于1961年8月27日，他不仅是美国流行设计师，现在也是一个电影导演，他的处女
作是2009年的《A Signal Man》。他和他的伴侣Richard Buckiey从1986年就在一起了
。
26.Nate Berkus
出生于1971年9月17日，他以Chicage的内部设计师开始发展，他从担任The Oprah
Winfrey Show的常驻嘉宾开始走红，此后，他在2010年... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******e
发帖数: 2113 | 22
WOW，牛人！Nate Silver has become Nate Silver God.
A Gay God! how's that. |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 24 Models & Markets..... Romney..... Obama..... Winner?
Princeton University..... 12%..... 88%..... Obama
Nerdwallet............. 20.2%..... 78.4%..... Obama
New York Times..... 28.7%..... 71.3%..... Obama
Washington Post ..... 41.6%..... 58.4%..... Obama
American University..... Obama heavily favored..... Obama
Betfair betting market ..... 37.0%..... 62.1%..... Obama
Intrade Betting Market..... 40.7%...... 59.2%..... Obama
Nate Silver... 23.7%..... 76.3%..... Obama
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nyt... 阅读全帖 |
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d****i
发帖数: 4354 | 25 看看标题，那方更desperate
Real Clear Politics Thursday
The Case for Barack Obama - E.J. Dionne, Time
[O - 1]
How Far Obama Has Fallen - Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
[Neutral]
Obama's Electoral College 'Firewall' Holding - Nate Silver, New York Times
[Neutral]
Don't Be Surprised When Obama Loses - Dan McLaughlin, Baseball Crank
[Neutral]
GOP's Protection-Racket Politics - Paul Krugman, New York Times
[O - 1]
The Most Important Election Since 1980 - Charles Krauthammer, Wash Post
[Neutral]
RCP Aftern... 阅读全帖 |
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l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 26 Mitt Romney Is Losing The Election That Matters
Jason Sattler
If you average all the national polls together, Mitt Romney has a slight
lead over President Obama — anywhere from .01 percent to .09 percent.
But if you look at the swing states where the race is being decided, Mitt
Romney is losing — and he’s never been ahead.
As The New Republic’s Nate Cohn wrote Thursday morning, “With just 12 days
to go, every day without signs of Romney making gains in Ohio, Wisconsin,
or Nevada counts as a win ... 阅读全帖 |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 27 A just released USA Today/Gallup Poll finds swing state voters are now split
48-48. comparing last poll, Obama up 4.
The battle between 538 Nate and Gallup: Nate scores 1. |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 28 民调有意义，但是即使是从民调的原始数据的处理，也有可能带有一定处理人的偏见
2012年大选，Nate Silver客观些，基本上每个州都预测准了，但共和党的民调那边就
很多一厢情愿的，
今年初选，Nate Silver因为自己的偏见在Trump上栽了大跟头 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 29 民调有意义，但是即使是从民调的原始数据的处理，也有可能带有一定处理人的偏见
2012年大选，Nate Silver客观些，基本上每个州都预测准了，但共和党的民调那边就
很多一厢情愿的，
今年初选，Nate Silver因为自己的偏见在Trump上栽了大跟头 |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 30 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 31 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 32 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
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c********i
发帖数: 102 | 34 仔细看了一下本版战友推荐的这个分析，感到我们其实还可以做更多事情。
fivethirtyeight.com的Nate Silver说，如果Trump赢得Amish人的支持，那么希拉里就
不可能在大选中胜出。一点背景：Amish人勤劳简朴，恪守传统，对使用现代化的机器
有很多限制，大部分人没有车。他们往年一般不参与太多政治，但是今年很多人愿意投
票，保卫传统价值观。
已经有宾州的朋友在支持Amish人，提供交通。但是是否其它州的朋友也可能行动呢？
根据这个分析，Amish人居住的州包括如下摇摆州：宾州，俄亥俄，弗吉尼亚，密歇根
和佛罗里达。宾州和俄亥俄州最多。
下面这个帖子有Ａｍｉｓｈ ＰＡＣ的联系方式。
http://impeachobamatoday.blogspot.com/2016/11/amish-pac-for-trump-focuses-on.html
虽然现在联系有点晚，但是大家还是行动起来，看看在自己投票之外，是否可以帮助他
们做点什么。我已经发过邮件给他们，有什么回复会来更新。
最后一战了!
According to statistician Nate Silver ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******t
发帖数: 4756 | 35 https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/5c5ctg/they_just_dont_fucking_
get_it/
zi [email protected]/* */ 翻译
"How did this happen?!" they cry.
"这是怎么发生的？！”他们哭泣着。
You want to know how this happened? You want to know how America resorted to
bigotry and racism? You want to know how we let a TV star with no
experience get to the White House? You want to know why we couldn’t stop
being stupid enough to listen to what you had to say?
你想知道这是怎么发生的？你想知道为什么美利坚诉诸偏见与种族主义？你想知道我们
是怎样让一个毫无经验的TV秀明星步入白宫... 阅读全帖 |
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e*i
发帖数: 10288 | 36 这是我在 Nate 登陆前发的帖子
唐老创还是很厉害的，墙还没有建，老墨名字的飓风，什么 Jose， Maria 之类都挡在
美国大陆外面了。Maria 袭击的 PR，那里的公民绝大部分是老墨。
这个 Nate 估计是要登陆的，上面的 Harvey，Irma 也不是老墨，因此进来了。
哈哈。 |
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G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 37 今天看到这则体育评论(一个教练Singletary评价一个quarterback Nate Davis)，心里
直冒冷汗，要是我这种工作态度到了NFL...
"Right now, Nate Davis is working his tail off to try and learn this system,
” Singletary told San Francisco reporters. “But in the offseason, that’s
when you take the time to get that done, and I’m not sure how hard he
worked this offseason getting that done. So when I talk about work ethic,
you just can’t turn it on and it off, and now come to training camp (and
say), ‘Coach, I’m really trying. I’m really trying.’ Y... 阅读全帖 |
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n*****a
发帖数: 2802 | 38 找成就感很重要，不过说起来容易做起来难。
兴趣这东西，开始可能有，但是小孩子往往很容易有挫折感，遇到挫折
就退缩了。大人也容易这样。
peer presure也有一定作用，记得小时候学滑轮，屁股都摔肿了，晚上只能
趴着睡，第二天听同学叫着要去滑，就又冲出去了。因为大家都玩这个，你
得会才能加入进去，何况这个还真挺好玩。
前段时间给儿子入了套how to train your dragon，给儿子读了一点点，他有想读
的意思，但是感觉自己读有些费劲，我也没时间给他读，结果说就扔一边了。
后来发现他没事时会捡起来自己读，一读读一个小时，书买了两个月后他跟我说，
这套书九本他都读完了。我还真吃惊，他还在上k，这套书应该还是有难度的。
人家说了句：“nate说，他一天就可以把这套读完呢。我还不行啊”。nate是我
们家邻居的一娃，一直上私校，已经三年级了。感觉娃有点不甘示弱地样子。
所以得空就去读。 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 39 Models & Markets..... Romney..... Obama..... Winner?
Princeton University..... 12%..... 88%..... Obama
Nerdwallet............. 20.2%..... 78.4%..... Obama
New York Times..... 28.7%..... 71.3%..... Obama
Washington Post ..... 41.6%..... 58.4%..... Obama
American University..... Obama heavily favored..... Obama
Betfair betting market ..... 37.0%..... 62.1%..... Obama
Intrade Betting Market..... 40.7%...... 59.2%..... Obama
Nate Silver... 23.7%..... 76.3%..... Obama
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nyt... 阅读全帖 |
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m****s
发帖数: 707 | 40 发表于 2015-01-23 14:50 |只看楼主
Capital One那么多中国人，一定炸锅了吧。。。。。。
据说3年搞了300w?
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KV26Y20150122?irpc=93
U.S. regulators sue former Capital One employees for insider trading Thu
Jan 22, 2015 12:43pm EST
By Nate Raymond
(Reuters) - U.S. securities regulators have accused two former Capital One
Financial Corp data analysts with engaging in insider trading based on sales
data the credit card issuer had collected from millions of its customers.
The U.S. Securi... 阅读全帖 |
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g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 41 我有两个问题
第一，你主持过生产一个卖出去的数据分析产品吗？
第二，你查过Nate silver的简历吗
这两条如果都是否。那我只能选择相信Nate silver. |
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g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 42 我有两个问题
第一，你主持过生产一个卖出去的数据分析产品吗？
第二，你查过Nate silver的简历吗
这两条如果都是否。那我只能选择相信Nate silver. |
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c*******v
发帖数: 2599 | 43 According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
not
believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
a 70-30 case implied:
(1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
(2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.
Wil... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******v
发帖数: 2599 | 44 According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
not
believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
a 70-30 case implied:
(1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
(2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.
Wil... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****1
发帖数: 316 | 45 PRESIDENT OBAMA is taping his NCAA picks today, and they’ll be revealed
tomorrow on ESPN. … NATE SILVER’s March Madness bracket http://nyti.ms/fc2qH9
=======================================================================
Japanese fear apocalypse; economic ripples go global -- House GOP uber-
message: 'Adults in charge' – Paul Ryan cranks up PAC – Infrastructure
bank gets push from business, labor
PRESIDENT OBAMA is taping his NCAA picks today, and they’ll be revealed
tomorrow on ESPN. … NATE S... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 46 Models & Markets..... Romney..... Obama..... Winner?
Princeton University..... 12%..... 88%..... Obama
Nerdwallet............. 20.2%..... 78.4%..... Obama
New York Times..... 28.7%..... 71.3%..... Obama
Washington Post ..... 41.6%..... 58.4%..... Obama
American University..... Obama heavily favored..... Obama
Betfair betting market ..... 37.0%..... 62.1%..... Obama
Intrade Betting Market..... 40.7%...... 59.2%..... Obama
Nate Silver... 23.7%..... 76.3%..... Obama
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nyt... 阅读全帖 |
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F**********y
发帖数: 707 | 47 nate本来就很爱装
不过这回他是真急了，合同明年到期，照这样被教练晾下去，到时候就要去签底薪了
curry也是被踢到替补的出来的，但是手上有刺客送的非到期大合同，心态就平和的多
，所以一直拉着nate |
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n*l
发帖数: 1126 | 48 除了刚开始办那几届参加人比较杂，90年代以后都基本是年轻球员。
00年是公认的史上最精彩的一届扣篮赛，不过当时的卡特弗朗西斯踢麦都在新秀合同，
还没到成名巨星这个级别。
# 2009 (Phoenix) - Nate Robinson, New York Knicks
# 2008 (New Orleans) - Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
# 2007 (Las Vegas) - Gerald Green, Boston Celtics
# 2006 (Houston) - Nate Robinson, New York Knicks
# 2005 (Denver) - Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
# 2004 (Los Angeles) - Fred Jones, Indiana Pacers
# 2003 (Atlanta) - Jason Richardson, Golden State Warriors
# 2002 (Philadelphia) - Jason Richardson, Golden State Warri |
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J********9
发帖数: 36508 | 49 你这个说的歪了千八丈去了
Rondo没中远投 Nelson可以放开距离 防突破
Nate能突能投 Nelson还放开距离 Nate能把你投死 |
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s*******u
发帖数: 1855 | 50 Letting perk go is already really weird. But there are explanation:
donating thunders to get rid of lakers.
But why let tony allen go? why let nate robinson go?
that is so stupid.
for celtics: tony allen + nate > jeff green
if two oneal do not work, they are kind of losing perk for nothing.
although i support celtic throughout eastern playoff, I will bet on heat
if i have to. Predict: 4:2 or 4:3, heat wins.
celtic has only 1 chance: one of the two oneal's do their work. otherwise,
no way. for th... 阅读全帖 |
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