USANews版 - No Turning Point: What Happens in Wisconsin Stays in Wisconsin; Hell to Pay |
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 No Turning Point: What Happens in Wisconsin Stays in Wisconsin; Hell to Pay
In the wake of an expected victory in Wisconsin, Ted Cruz gave the expected
victory speech.
“Tonight is a turning point. It is a rallying cry,” said Cruz to an elated
crowd of his supporters.
Nonsense. What happens in Wisconsin stays in Wisconsin.
Nomination Analysis
Cruz won 36 of 42 Wisconsin delegates. In the Path to a Trump Victory, Nate
Silver estimated Trump needed to win 18 Wisconsin delegates.
Trump won six, leaving him 12 short.
New York has 95 delegates. Silver estimates Trump needs 58 of then.
I expect Trump will pick up 70 putting him back on track. I made that
estimate on April 4 in Rumors of Trump’s Demise Overblown; Wisconsin May
Not Matter if Trump Sweeps New York.
Recent Polls
Silver’s Poll’s Only Projection
If those numbers for Trump come in, and we will find out on April 19, the
momentum will clearly have shifted back to Donald Trump.
Still on Course
Financial Times writer Edward Luce sees things pretty much the way I do. In
an article today, Luce says Donald Trump Still Just About on Course.
Despite having self-inflicted the worst two weeks of his campaign, and
provoking the opposition of almost every senior Republican in Wisconsin, Mr
Trump still took more than a third of the vote — and in a state that he was
likely to lose.
Wisconsin’s demographics, which skew towards educated conservatives,
are similar to that of Iowa, which Mr Cruz won at the start of the primary
season two months ago. New York’s are closer to that of New Hampshire,
which Mr Trump won handily the following week.
It is anybody’s guess what Mr Trump will say, or tweet. His capacity
for self-destruction can never be underestimated. But it takes a leap of
faith to believe he will be defeated on his home turf by a Texan
conservative who denigrates “New York values”.
Wisconsin does not drastically alter the bigger picture. Republicans are
probably heading towards a contested convention in Cleveland in which they
will confront a choice between Mr Trump and Mr Cruz.
Contested Convention
It’s a bit premature to come to the conclusion a contested convention is
the odds-on-favorite, but it is increasingly likely.
In January, I stated the only likely way Trump could be stopped was a
contested convention. That was long before media glommed onto the idea.
Today the notion of a contested convention is mainstream.
Hell to Pay
It remains to be seen if we do have a brokered convention but a Talking
Points Memo accurately says there will be Hell to Pay, if we do. Emphasis is
mine.
I certainly knew that election night was not the end of the delegation
selection process in most states – especially in caucus states. But I
confess I did not realize how many states do not allow a candidate any
direct control over who ‘their’ delegates even are. So Donald Trump could
win all the delegates in a particular state but have party functionaries
pick the actual people who will serve as ‘Trump’s’ delegates. So they’re
bound on the first ballot but actually there to support Cruz or Kasich or
some other unicorn candidate.
I think many people imagine a raucous and wild scene where the Trump
delegates walk out of the hall after the convention gives Mitt Romney or
maybe Jeb Bush’s son ‘P.’ the nomination. But in fact there may be no
Trump supporters there to walk out. Now, obviously there will be some. But
maybe not that many.
The ‘Trump delegates’ who agree to vote for someone else on the second
ballot may not be former Trump supporters. They may be Cruz supporters or
just party regulars.
All of this is why this is bounding toward a wildly destructive
conflagration in Cleveland. Elections of all sorts rest not fundamentally on
rules and bylaws but on legitimacy. An RNC national committeeman recently
complained that the press had given people the wrong impression that voters
decided who the nominee was rather than the party. By the rules, he may be
right. But good luck sailing that ship across any body of water.
TPM Readers know, because it’s been one of the site’s core perennial
issues for 15 years, that people’s right to their vote gets disregarded all
the time. But it is by definition almost always the votes of the
marginalized and those lacking power, almost always those most loosely tied
to the political system. And usually it either does not or cannot be proven
to swing an actual election. It is quite another thing, under the bright
lights of intense national press scrutiny to take the win away from the guy
who unambiguously won the most votes.
Trump’s constituency is the part of the electorate which Republican
politicians have been marinating in grievance and betrayal politics for
decades. Only it’s not coming from Al Sharpton or Hollywood elites or
limousine liberals or Feminazis. It will be coming from their supposed
protectors, their party.
It won’t go down well. There will be hell to pay.
Hell to pay indeed!
This is precisely why Trump feels marginalized to the point he may not
support the Republican candidate if he doesn’t win.
And why should he?
Can Cruz Beat Hillary?
Can Cruz or some alternative “hand-picked” candidate defeat Hillary?
It seems dubious, at best. To win the election, the Republican nominee will
have to pick up votes from some independents and some traditional Democrats.
What votes can Cruz pick up? Anything? I challenge anyone to explain what
inroads Cruz, Kasich, or any other hand-picked Republican Neanderthal can
deliver from either Democrats or Independents.
Appealing to the core is the road to ruin, and Trump proves it.
And if Trump runs on a third party ticket, it will be next to impossible for
Cruz or any other Republican candidate win.
Can Trump Beat Hillary?
Despite the talk, Trump will retain nearly all of the traditional Republican
vote. Sure, some may vote Hillary or sit the election out. But the strong
anti-Hillary sentiment will overcome almost all of that.
On the plus side, Trump will pick up votes from anti-war Democrats, anti-war
independents, anti-establishment independents, anti-Fed independents, and
most importantly – angry white Democrats who blame China and Mexico for our
problems.
On the minus side, Trump has offended a lot of people. However, there will
be some time for him to make amends and sound more presidential.
Destructive Republican Party Breakup
Whether Trump wins the nomination or it is stolen from him, a destructive
breakup of the holier-than-thou, war-mongering, neocon pseudo-conservative
hypocrites running the Republican party is potentially at hand.
For that we can all thank Trump, whether you like the guy or not. It’s time
to rebuild the Republican party, and this is a good start.
If the nomination is stolen from Trump, he can finish the job with a third-
party candidacy. | r******g
发帖数: 4002 | | c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 3 Trump is living by polls.
這作者 wishful thinking. Brokered convention 是串譜談判強項，想都別想。
contest convention by rules.
人生贏家要學會 play by rules.
呵呵 | T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 4 worst case is Trump/Kasich ticket, comfortably over 1237 combined, FL & OH
in
the pocket.
Go eat your own shxt.
【在 c******i 的大作中提到】
: Trump is living by polls.
: 這作者 wishful thinking. Brokered convention 是串譜談判強項，想都別想。
: contest convention by rules.
: 人生贏家要學會 play by rules.
: 呵呵
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
