n****i
发帖数: 1772 | 1 " Speaking of TSLA, by all available evidence, the company has had a
difficult year. TSLA has had trouble demonstrating efficient production, and
it has delayed capital spending which pushes out future growth
opportunities in the Model Y and the Semi. TSLA is accommodating Model 3
customers who are willing to pay for premium features – making the car more
of a luxury item with a smaller addressable market than the mass market car
TSLA had promised. This high-grading of the backlog combined with the
reduction in the government subsidy by early next year, new product delays
and the emergence of viable competition for the Models S and X means that
2019 should be a very challenging year for TSLA. We doubt the entry-level
Model 3 will be produced profitably anytime soon, if ever.
The odd thing is that while investors claim to be interested in the long
-term growth of TSLA (as the valuation certainly can’t be supported by the
current loss-making enterprise), the company is focusing investors on very
short-term goals. Can the company produce a certain number of cars in a
single week through short-term surge production techniques? Can the company
fire enough staff and scrimp on capex to show a profitable or cash flow
positive quarter or two?
On the other hand, we wonder whether surge production techniques to
support self-congratulatory tweets are economically efficient ways of
ramping production, or whether customers will be happy with the quality of a
car rushed through production to prove a point to short sellers. We also
wonder whether the company’s lack of capital and its determination to show
positive cash flow is delaying investments in additional manufacturing
capacity and infrastructure necessary to fulfill the bulls’ long-term
growth expectations. With TSLA’s first-to-market window beginning to close,
delaying investment undermines the opportunity. Strangely, the bulls don’t
seem to care.
On a personal note, David is happy that his Model S lease ended (there
were growing problems with the touchscreen and the power windows) and is
excited to get the Jaguar IPACE, which has gotten excellent reviews. The
Model S residual values are falling. Meanwhile, the Model 3 initially
received lukewarm reviews, and the raft of bad publicity is probably having
a negative impact on the brand.
The most striking feature of the quarter is that Elon Musk appears
erratic and desperate. During the quarter Mr. Musk:
Attacked an analyst for asking “boring bonehead questions” on the
quarterly conference call;
Hung up on the head of the National Transportation Safety Board;
Assailed the media for the audacity to report that Tesla’s
customers crash while using “autopilot”;
Accused an internal whistleblower of “sabotage”;
Appeared to paint the tape with trivial insider purchases; and
Went on a tweetstorm calling for “the short burn of the century.”
The market preferred this bravado much more than say, GM’s actual
accomplishments. TSLA soared 29% during the quarter and was our second
biggest loser.
" |
x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 2 喜不自胜。。。有比我做多FB更惨的，比我哭的凶。该，该
and
more
car
【在 n****i 的大作中提到】
: " Speaking of TSLA, by all available evidence, the company has had a
: difficult year. TSLA has had trouble demonstrating efficient production, and
: it has delayed capital spending which pushes out future growth
: opportunities in the Model Y and the Semi. TSLA is accommodating Model 3
: customers who are willing to pay for premium features – making the car more
: of a luxury item with a smaller addressable market than the mass market car
: TSLA had promised. This high-grading of the backlog combined with the
: reduction in the government subsidy by early next year, new product delays
: and the emergence of viable competition for the Models S and X means that
: 2019 should be a very challenging year for TSLA. We doubt the entry-level
|
n****e
发帖数: 130 | |
a******9
发帖数: 20431 | 4 鸡精经理真是不好做
管你以前挣了多少 多么有自信 分分钟就打回原型
：" Speaking of TSLA, by all available evidence, the company has had
a
：difficult year. TSLA has had trouble demonstrating efficient production,
and it has delayed capital spending which pushes out future growth |
s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 5 对冲基金经理讲话水平就是不一样，用词和逻辑都非常牛
不过做空技术难度高 |
s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 6 做基本面分析就是这样，考验意志力和耐力，market can stay irrational longer
than you can stay solvent.
【在 a******9 的大作中提到】
: 鸡精经理真是不好做
: 管你以前挣了多少 多么有自信 分分钟就打回原型
:
: ：" Speaking of TSLA, by all available evidence, the company has had
: a
: ：difficult year. TSLA has had trouble demonstrating efficient production,
: and it has delayed capital spending which pushes out future growth
|
s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 7 ximan做多了FB？ 如果丑闻过后牢底的现在应该还在水面上
【在 x***n 的大作中提到】
: 喜不自胜。。。有比我做多FB更惨的，比我哭的凶。该，该
:
: and
: more
: car
|
Y*****e
发帖数: 619 | 8 今天还有td pm打电话来骚扰说要不要谈谈strategy, 我说没空，听他扯淡给花姐送钱
。。
【在 a******9 的大作中提到】
: 鸡精经理真是不好做
: 管你以前挣了多少 多么有自信 分分钟就打回原型
:
: ：" Speaking of TSLA, by all available evidence, the company has had
: a
: ：difficult year. TSLA has had trouble demonstrating efficient production,
: and it has delayed capital spending which pushes out future growth
|
x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 9 吃进去的吐出来很难受。能用打折价格买更多，有喜有悲
【在 s******1 的大作中提到】
: ximan做多了FB？ 如果丑闻过后牢底的现在应该还在水面上
|
N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 10 Soros做空DB，从14块烧到21，憋了2年现在也赚到了。
David Einhorn的空仓最早今年，最晚明年也会大赚。 |
z*****u
发帖数: 3010 | 11 哪有一定赚钱的事情
他一直坚持short nflx amzn tsla
他的投资人受不了 撤资的话
他的对手盘的 再加把火
到时候不想cover 也得cover
搞不好泡沫等他 cover了 再破 怎么办？
: Soros做空DB，从14块烧到21，憋了2年现在也赚到了。
: David Einhorn的空仓最早今年，最晚明年也会大赚。
【在 N*****d 的大作中提到】
: Soros做空DB，从14块烧到21，憋了2年现在也赚到了。
: David Einhorn的空仓最早今年，最晚明年也会大赚。
|
c******9
发帖数: 1 | 12 那还好 只要他还在做空 tsla的小散股东们看来都有机会
【在 z*****u 的大作中提到】
: 哪有一定赚钱的事情
: 他一直坚持short nflx amzn tsla
: 他的投资人受不了 撤资的话
: 他的对手盘的 再加把火
: 到时候不想cover 也得cover
: 搞不好泡沫等他 cover了 再破 怎么办？
:
:
: Soros做空DB，从14块烧到21，憋了2年现在也赚到了。
:
: David Einhorn的空仓最早今年，最晚明年也会大赚。
:
|
s******s
发帖数: 1793 | 13 这水平都没坏男孩厉害，坏男孩做空都挣了4，5十万了吧？出来说说？ |
