b****e
发帖数: 460 | 1 Inflation is always a long term effect unless it's the case of Zimbabwe.
Will I put money in Zimbabwe's stock market at all? |
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 2 Right. If I live in Zimbabwe I will hold gold bars. In the US, such dramatic
inflation is not likely to happen. So, I will only hold gold/silver at 2%
level and put rest of money into the market and other places. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 3 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tonys (基因决定人生) 于 (Mon Oct 6 22:36:40 2008) 提到:
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Wohui (我不会) 于 (Mon Oct 6 23:20:16 2008) 提到:
M3 2006年后的估计准确度高吗？简直是脱缰野马
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
jiangh (jiang) 于 (Mon Oct 6 23:27:13 2008) 提到:
Pictures show inflation.
Future is not certain. There are many possible causes:
1. Fallen asset prices.
2. Insolvent companies. (e.g., AIG)
3. Insolvent banks. (too many to list)
4. Fear of insolve |
|
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 5 St Louis FED M1: The plunging ratio suggests that little of this base money
is
actually making its way into M1.
St Louis FED Reserve Bank Credit: Base money is sitting in bank reserves. In
other words, banks are not lending.
Debt level: The debt chain is in deflation. On the other side of debt, there
's
the credit. Without credits, where is the inflation?!
泡沫经济崩溃之后，印
了20年的钞票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。 |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 6 Japan didn't start printing money until 10 years into recession. And
even when they do, FED now prints more in a few months than what
they print in a few years. Japan is a country of savers. It is politically
hard to print money. Here in US, inflation is really good for the
country of reckless borrowers.
泡沫经济崩溃之后，印了20年的钞
票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。 |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 7 This is a very dangerous mindset. The same mindset in 2006 allows the
bank to lend recklessly to the subprime borrowers because even if he
can not pay, he can always sell the house and pay the money back, right?
So while everyone just focuses on the very short-term consequence, no
one cares about the long term.
However, at least right now FED is not sleeping at the wheel as opposed
to in the Greenspan era. Ben Bernanke knows what he is doing. He just
thinks that inflation is the less of the two |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 8 I can not decide whether I should buy in TIPS bonds now. I expect the recess
will last at least another 6 months. Recess will suppress the inflation.
Maybe it is good idea to wait another three months. If you examine the chart
of TIP (an ETF of TIPS), the price is dropping rather quickly recently. I
am afraid of catching a falling knife. |
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t********m
发帖数: 54 | 10 Buying TIPS is a perfect example of trusting the fox to guard your hen house
. The basic problem with TIPS is that they are indexed to the CPI, which
does not reflect actual inflation, but rather the government's highly
understated version of it. Ultimately, the CPI can be manipulated to produce
any result the government wants. As the supply of TIPS outstanding
continues to increase, so too does the government's incentive to make them
less costly by understating the CPI.
Peter Schiff, "Crash Pro |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 11 thanks.
I understand TIPS principle value is indexed to CPI, which may be understated by government who has incentive to do so. But I can not think of better way to hedge inflation risk. Gold is not good investment because it does not appreciate overtime. Commodities are cyclic and thus too risk. |
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x***i
发帖数: 395 | 12 how about putting money to stock fund. Will inflation "bull" stock market?
.
or |
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c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 13 难说，只要有足够竞争的行业，公司都不能够把inflation完全转嫁给消费者 |
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x***i
发帖数: 395 | 14 how will long term treasury bond fund perfom during inflation?
the
in
stock |
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x***i
发帖数: 395 | 15 do you mean to buy long term bond only when(or after) the inflation peaks?
the
in
stock |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 16 inflation rise -> bond yield rice -> bond price down -> long term bond
lose money the most |
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 17 thanks. any advice on corp bonds?
also, commodities are good during inflation?
bond
tripled
year
history |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 18 Gold is cleaner. This could be a run on dollar instead of real
inflation. Too much oil & too many houses around
stocks), |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 19 Not only good companies. You need to look at companies which have relatively
small percentage of input costs over its profit.
An example is Google: the inflation will not raise the price for the data
which is everywhere. If you can analyze the data and make sense out of it
for the user, your value proposition still holds. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 20 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
plainheart (Tommy) 于 (Sun Nov 16 20:25:39 2008) 提到:
刚看到新闻，Obama说要刺激经济，不要在乎赤字。那么他肯定是选择inflation了。
Obama: Fixing economy comes before fixing deficit
WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Barack Obama says eliminating the federal
deficit is less important than getting the U.S. economy back on track.
"We shouldn't worry about the deficit next year or even the year after,"
Obama said in an interview broadcast Sunday on CBS' "60 Minutes." "The most
important th |
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 21 inflation is gone, and oil is down?
confused |
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s**********r
发帖数: 16 | 22 It seems that you have a big position of oil or energy.
Everybody is saying that oil was up because of hot money. Nobody said
inflation, except you. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 23
Inflation will emerge in the precious medals first, then rampant into
food, energy, consumer goods and everything else.
Some people already decided to run on Costco b4 the sh*t hits the fan: |
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i*******d
发帖数: 1430 | 24 My comments on the youtube video clip:
What a joke! This guy is stocking up bottled water, dog food, tooth brush
and toilet paper to combat inflation! I am sure there are more reasonable
selections in costco if he is really into being ahead of the curve. |
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t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 25 如果两年后出现较高inflation, 应该如何应对？
(1) buy TIP ?
(2) dump long-term bond?
(3) buy index stock funds?
what else can we do?
thanks! |
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D********n
发帖数: 1595 | 26 不能一概而论。要看你要买的东西是不是已经priced in inflation. |
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t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 27 对付inflation 的利器：
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) |
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l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 28 两个月前开始DCA进入TIPS index fund作为inflation hedge，只占portfolio的5%以下
。考虑了REIT，commodity和TIPS，还是觉得TIPS的概念最清晰，也最直接。而且
treasury的什么I-Bonds啥的也有很长时间的历史了，长期这个概念也应该是work的。
caveat是作为在二级市场上trade的债券，同时也因为把interest和principle分开了的
缘故，短期会受到非理性的通胀预期影响比较大，不过长期持有同时DCA的话应该会好
很多。这是不是也说明ETF会比fund要好些，至少基金经理没有赎买压力？
真诚请教/讨论！ |
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l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 29 同意呀
我记得谁说过gold不是inflation hedge，而是用来hedge paper currency fail
completely的。。。 |
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t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 30 many articles suggest to using "equity income funds" (stocks paying high
divident)
to protect portforlio from inflation
good idea?
they
treasury以 |
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l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 31 Why TIPS carries more interest rate risk than regular TSY?
I'm thinking of buying TIPS as a long term insurance plan for unexpected
hyperinflation in the long run. It is not necessary that inflation always
moves with intereste rate, is it?
I agree with you that TIPS is essentially TSY. However I would think that it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
BTW, I'm not 100% sure but I think TIPS principle won't be adjusted down in the case of deflation, right?
they |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 32 you need to google "hyperinflation" to see what it really is
dont just assume it is a "ultra high inflation"
it is a totally different animal
it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
in the case of deflation, right? |
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Y**j
发帖数: 13 | 33 想请教一下大家觉得未来2-5年inflation是否会越来越严重？如果不会，美国会用什么
方法抑制价格上升，或转嫁给他人？如果会，那什么是较好的投资呢，房子，
communities？ 谢谢大牛指教。 |
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a**d
发帖数: 64 | 34 这是Yale的Robert Shiller 教授, the author of "Irrational Exuberance", 的大作
.
他说, 你也可以从图上看出, 从1890到1990, 房价与 Inflation Rate 刚好持平. |
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c***a
发帖数: 942 | 35 银行利率是在太少了，看了下inflation protected mutral fund觉得还是非常稳健的
投资，每年总归比银行利率要多。唯一看了下好像如果买了hold半年不到，brokage会
收50刀的交易费。 |
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b*******2
发帖数: 3202 | 39 the USD will go down more
inflation will be controlled in any way
the mark will go north |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 PureSpeculation 俱乐部 】
发信人: guanjiu (酒倌副主席), 信区: PureSpeculation
标 题: Inflation expectation coming back down.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 6 22:30:11 2011, 美东)
as per measured by TIPS spread, i.e., the yield spread between 10 year TIPS
and 10 year bond.
一个问题：金子现在能否买？ |
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l****t
发帖数: 1379 | 41 从股票的VALUATION来说, 一般来说, INFLATION越高, 股票的价值越低.
实际情况的话, 经济就很糟糕, 企业效益很低, 失业率上去了, 货币贬值的厉害,
基本就是民不聊生了. |
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g8
发帖数: 3784 | 43 ...
Investors bought $15 billion worth of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected
Securities at a negative yield at an auction for the first time in the 15
years since TIPS were introduced.
...
This meant investors essentially paid the U.S. government to own 10-year
TIPS at a time when some of them have been hoarding Treasurys, including
TIPS, due to fears about Europe's debt crisis spiraling out of control.
全文见：
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46070802 |
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r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 44 Trumpeting inflation scare again. |
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p****a
发帖数: 4829 | 45 Wrong. GDP prediction 3% is inflation-adjusted. |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 46 只要inflation涨过2％，OT ends， then stock rally will end。 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 47 No. High inflation will distort the pricing system and stop the easing policy
earlier, which is really not desirable for equities.
|
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G*******m
发帖数: 16326 | 48 Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs I (VIPIX)
11.56 Up 0.07(0.61%) Feb 4 |
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p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 49 housing missed- no certainty on escape velocity growth
inflation beats- tapers on, maybe early rate hike
come on, flash crash, let's do it!! |
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m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 50 Fed tapers another $10 billion; no inflation talk |
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