f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 1 if it is coming, should we buy stocks (especially the commodities stocks),
or bonds?
thanks |
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 2 Never buy regular bonds prior to inception of high inflation. You will be
killed. FOr example, 10year treasury note yields only 3% right now. If the
inflation increase to 10%. Then the new treasury bond will have to yield 10%.
The market value of your bonds will decrease 67%. You may buy commodities or
TIPS bonds or I bond when you see the inflation is coming.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: if it is coming, should we buy stocks (especially the commodities stocks),
: or bonds?
: thanks
|
c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 3 TIPS/commodities/real estate |
x***i
发帖数: 395 | 4 how about putting money to stock fund. Will inflation "bull" stock market?
.
or
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Never buy regular bonds prior to inception of high inflation. You will be
: killed. FOr example, 10year treasury note yields only 3% right now. If the
: inflation increase to 10%. Then the new treasury bond will have to yield 10%.
: The market value of your bonds will decrease 67%. You may buy commodities or
: TIPS bonds or I bond when you see the inflation is coming.
|
c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 5 难说，只要有足够竞争的行业，公司都不能够把inflation完全转嫁给消费者
【在 x***i 的大作中提到】
: how about putting money to stock fund. Will inflation "bull" stock market?
:
: .
: or
|
r****y
发帖数: 3412 | 6 agree on real estate
【在 c*********t 的大作中提到】
: TIPS/commodities/real estate
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 7 what's kind of real estate is good for investment now?
Builder?
Commercial Real estate?
Personal real estate?
Stock market will be outperformed by regular high yield bonds
during high inflation. Buy long term high yield bonds like 15% interest
rate bonds are the best whenever possible in high inflation environment. This is because like everything else, inflation will go down when it is going way up.
【在 r****y 的大作中提到】
: agree on real estate
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 8
or real estate mutual funds, like TIAA real estate?
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: what's kind of real estate is good for investment now?
: Builder?
: Commercial Real estate?
: Personal real estate?
: Stock market will be outperformed by regular high yield bonds
: during high inflation. Buy long term high yield bonds like 15% interest
: rate bonds are the best whenever possible in high inflation environment. This is because like everything else, inflation will go down when it is going way up.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 9 So does it mean: don't buy bonds right now, wait until 1) the inception of
inflation, or/and 2) during inflation? If "during inflation" is ok, that it
would be great: one doesn't need to time the market for the start of the
inflation (hard to do); one can wait to make sure to see the inflation (easy
to do).
(A side notice: I think, even after you buy tips and I-bond, the rate for I
bond (and maybe TIPS) are adjustable every three(or six?) months based on
inflation. so the timing is not important
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Never buy regular bonds prior to inception of high inflation. You will be
: killed. FOr example, 10year treasury note yields only 3% right now. If the
: inflation increase to 10%. Then the new treasury bond will have to yield 10%.
: The market value of your bonds will decrease 67%. You may buy commodities or
: TIPS bonds or I bond when you see the inflation is coming.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 10 You can wait to buy high yield bonds during high inflation, when the bond
yields are way out of touch of FED. But remember that in the beginning of
inflation, Fed can modulate the bond price buying in longer term bond and
artificially lower bond yield. The fear is that bond yield is 10% while the
inflation is 20%, so you still lose big purchasing power during high
inflation.
My strategy will be buy inflation protected bonds now and wait for high
inflation period. Then I will purchase 15% yield
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: So does it mean: don't buy bonds right now, wait until 1) the inception of
: inflation, or/and 2) during inflation? If "during inflation" is ok, that it
: would be great: one doesn't need to time the market for the start of the
: inflation (hard to do); one can wait to make sure to see the inflation (easy
: to do).
: (A side notice: I think, even after you buy tips and I-bond, the rate for I
: bond (and maybe TIPS) are adjustable every three(or six?) months based on
: inflation. so the timing is not important
|
|
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 11
the
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: You can wait to buy high yield bonds during high inflation, when the bond
: yields are way out of touch of FED. But remember that in the beginning of
: inflation, Fed can modulate the bond price buying in longer term bond and
: artificially lower bond yield. The fear is that bond yield is 10% while the
: inflation is 20%, so you still lose big purchasing power during high
: inflation.
: My strategy will be buy inflation protected bonds now and wait for high
: inflation period. Then I will purchase 15% yield
|
x***i
发帖数: 395 | 12 how will long term treasury bond fund perfom during inflation?
the
in
stock
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: You can wait to buy high yield bonds during high inflation, when the bond
: yields are way out of touch of FED. But remember that in the beginning of
: inflation, Fed can modulate the bond price buying in longer term bond and
: artificially lower bond yield. The fear is that bond yield is 10% while the
: inflation is 20%, so you still lose big purchasing power during high
: inflation.
: My strategy will be buy inflation protected bonds now and wait for high
: inflation period. Then I will purchase 15% yield
|
x***i
发帖数: 395 | 13 do you mean to buy long term bond only when(or after) the inflation peaks?
the
in
stock
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: You can wait to buy high yield bonds during high inflation, when the bond
: yields are way out of touch of FED. But remember that in the beginning of
: inflation, Fed can modulate the bond price buying in longer term bond and
: artificially lower bond yield. The fear is that bond yield is 10% while the
: inflation is 20%, so you still lose big purchasing power during high
: inflation.
: My strategy will be buy inflation protected bonds now and wait for high
: inflation period. Then I will purchase 15% yield
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 14 This is true. Buy long term bond too early will be disastrous.
【在 x***i 的大作中提到】
: do you mean to buy long term bond only when(or after) the inflation peaks?
:
: the
: in
: stock
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 15 inflation rise -> bond yield rice -> bond price down -> long term bond
lose money the most
【在 x***i 的大作中提到】
: how will long term treasury bond fund perfom during inflation?
:
: the
: in
: stock
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 16 you mentioned: My strategy will be buy inflation protected bonds now and
wait for high
Can u also address my questions in the previous post? thanks.
inflation period
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: This is true. Buy long term bond too early will be disastrous.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 17
buy regular (note it is not inflation protected bond) 30 year treasury bond
during high inflation to lock in high long term interest rate. If you buy
TIPS bond, the interest rate will goes down automatically if the inflation
tames. But for high interest regular bond, the principle will double tripled
when inflation goes down. For example if you have chance bought 15% 30 year
treasurey bond in 1970s, the value increases significantly in 80s and 90s,
as new 30 year treasurey bond paid less than 5
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: you mentioned: My strategy will be buy inflation protected bonds now and
: wait for high
: Can u also address my questions in the previous post? thanks.
: inflation period
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 18 NEVER BUY ANY US BOND, PERIOD!!
Dollar is going to zero in the upcoming hyperinflation, so there
is no point to buy these bonds that pay you back in Dollar.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Never buy regular bonds prior to inception of high inflation. You will be
: killed. FOr example, 10year treasury note yields only 3% right now. If the
: inflation increase to 10%. Then the new treasury bond will have to yield 10%.
: The market value of your bonds will decrease 67%. You may buy commodities or
: TIPS bonds or I bond when you see the inflation is coming.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 19 thanks. any advice on corp bonds?
also, commodities are good during inflation?
bond
tripled
year
history
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
:
: buy regular (note it is not inflation protected bond) 30 year treasury bond
: during high inflation to lock in high long term interest rate. If you buy
: TIPS bond, the interest rate will goes down automatically if the inflation
: tames. But for high interest regular bond, the principle will double tripled
: when inflation goes down. For example if you have chance bought 15% 30 year
: treasurey bond in 1970s, the value increases significantly in 80s and 90s,
: as new 30 year treasurey bond paid less than 5
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 20 Gold is cleaner. This could be a run on dollar instead of real
inflation. Too much oil & too many houses around
stocks),
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: if it is coming, should we buy stocks (especially the commodities stocks),
: or bonds?
: thanks
|
|
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 21 is it a good time to buy gold now?
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: Gold is cleaner. This could be a run on dollar instead of real
: inflation. Too much oil & too many houses around
:
: stocks),
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 22
junk corp bonds still yield very high rate, it may have chance. Spread
between AAA+ rated bonds and treasury bonds narrowed significantly, it may
be not a good idea to buy those investment grade bond because the recess may
be worse than expected.
It is not a sure bet because the price of commodities depends on demand but
not inflation. You can always increase the supply of commidities when price
is right. In a deep recession, you have high inflation and low commodities
price, as the companies d
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: thanks. any advice on corp bonds?
: also, commodities are good during inflation?
:
: bond
: tripled
: year
: history
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 23 I am not so pessimistic about the future of USA. USA's GDP grow may be
stalled for next decade, but it can maintain its current economic level.
Compare USA and Japan in the past two decades. With zero or negative growth
of past two decades, Japan still looks ok. Yen is depreciated from 80 to 140
and now stand around 100 vs dollar.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: NEVER BUY ANY US BOND, PERIOD!!
: Dollar is going to zero in the upcoming hyperinflation, so there
: is no point to buy these bonds that pay you back in Dollar.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 24 No, too expensive.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: is it a good time to buy gold now?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 25
if recess is bad, then a lot of those companies may go bankruppted. So the
junk bonds would become real junks, and a big lose for investment?
thanks!
may
but
price
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: I am not so pessimistic about the future of USA. USA's GDP grow may be
: stalled for next decade, but it can maintain its current economic level.
: Compare USA and Japan in the past two decades. With zero or negative growth
: of past two decades, Japan still looks ok. Yen is depreciated from 80 to 140
: and now stand around 100 vs dollar.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 26 Right, a lot of companies cannot raise price during recession. But, the good
thing for a good company is its competitors will die or lose a whole lot
amount of businesses to the good one. And, when spring comes back, good
company's earning shot up.
So, it's a good time to buy stocks of low cost commodity makers.
may
but
price
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: I am not so pessimistic about the future of USA. USA's GDP grow may be
: stalled for next decade, but it can maintain its current economic level.
: Compare USA and Japan in the past two decades. With zero or negative growth
: of past two decades, Japan still looks ok. Yen is depreciated from 80 to 140
: and now stand around 100 vs dollar.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 27 so it is the stocks of good companies, not the commodities stocks??
good
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Right, a lot of companies cannot raise price during recession. But, the good
: thing for a good company is its competitors will die or lose a whole lot
: amount of businesses to the good one. And, when spring comes back, good
: company's earning shot up.
: So, it's a good time to buy stocks of low cost commodity makers.
:
: may
: but
: price
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 28 Suppose we have 2 companies making the same material X. Company 1 has cost
of 1 dollar per unit. Company 2 has cost of 1.5 dollar per unit. Consider
the following scenarios:
1) Price of X is 2 dollars per unit, both companies are fine;
2) Price of X is 1.3 dollars per unit, only company 1 makes money.
If X stays at 1.3 dollars per unit for a long time, commodity investor won't
make a lot of money, but investor of company 1 makes money.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so it is the stocks of good companies, not the commodities stocks??
:
: good
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 29 under what price will be a good time to jump in?
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: No, too expensive.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 30 How do you price gold?
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: No, too expensive.
|
|
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 31 Not only good companies. You need to look at companies which have relatively
small percentage of input costs over its profit.
An example is Google: the inflation will not raise the price for the data
which is everywhere. If you can analyze the data and make sense out of it
for the user, your value proposition still holds.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so it is the stocks of good companies, not the commodities stocks??
:
: good
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 32 I will purchase gold only when the price is approaching or even less than
excavation cost of some major miners. Most of the time, I wouldn't touch
commodity itself since it's almost impossible to estimate the value of a
type of commodity except the excavation costs. And mostly, commodity is for
speculators.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: How do you price gold?
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 33 如果差这么多，2会被1吃掉的。
't
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Suppose we have 2 companies making the same material X. Company 1 has cost
: of 1 dollar per unit. Company 2 has cost of 1.5 dollar per unit. Consider
: the following scenarios:
: 1) Price of X is 2 dollars per unit, both companies are fine;
: 2) Price of X is 1.3 dollars per unit, only company 1 makes money.
: If X stays at 1.3 dollars per unit for a long time, commodity investor won't
: make a lot of money, but investor of company 1 makes money.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 34 so < $500?
for
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I will purchase gold only when the price is approaching or even less than
: excavation cost of some major miners. Most of the time, I wouldn't touch
: commodity itself since it's almost impossible to estimate the value of a
: type of commodity except the excavation costs. And mostly, commodity is for
: speculators.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 35 At least. But, this only applies to myself.
I suppose everyone who buys gold now is to catch the gold price surge
similar to the one 30 years ago. It's very likely the gold price will
replicate the same pattern or do something similar, but I don't bet on it.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so < $500?
:
: for
|
