l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 1 两个月前开始DCA进入TIPS index fund作为inflation hedge，只占portfolio的5%以下
。考虑了REIT，commodity和TIPS，还是觉得TIPS的概念最清晰，也最直接。而且
treasury的什么I-Bonds啥的也有很长时间的历史了，长期这个概念也应该是work的。
caveat是作为在二级市场上trade的债券，同时也因为把interest和principle分开了的
缘故，短期会受到非理性的通胀预期影响比较大，不过长期持有同时DCA的话应该会好
很多。这是不是也说明ETF会比fund要好些，至少基金经理没有赎买压力？
真诚请教/讨论！ |
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 2 tips exclude food/oil,
so already missed a lot.
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 两个月前开始DCA进入TIPS index fund作为inflation hedge，只占portfolio的5%以下
: 。考虑了REIT，commodity和TIPS，还是觉得TIPS的概念最清晰，也最直接。而且
: treasury的什么I-Bonds啥的也有很长时间的历史了，长期这个概念也应该是work的。
: caveat是作为在二级市场上trade的债券，同时也因为把interest和principle分开了的
: 缘故，短期会受到非理性的通胀预期影响比较大，不过长期持有同时DCA的话应该会好
: 很多。这是不是也说明ETF会比fund要好些，至少基金经理没有赎买压力？
: 真诚请教/讨论！
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 4 TIPS is indexed w/ CPI-U, not "core" CPI, so food and fuel are included.
However, TIPS has never been tested in an inflationary environment, its
usefulness is uncertain. Besides, it's first and foremost treasury, w/ a
small twist.
【在 h****h 的大作中提到】
: tips exclude food/oil,
: so already missed a lot.
|
y****e
发帖数: 23939 | 5 agree
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: TIPS就是joke
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6 When in doubt buy gold. TIPS is a fraud. |
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 7 真正要beat通胀的话，基本金属和粮食是最好的选择。
铝，铜，锡，铅，镍，小麦，玉米，大豆。
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: When in doubt buy gold. TIPS is a fraud.
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 8 如果是滞胀的话，基本金属也许不会很好，油价不停的涨，如果现在的油价100是新的
底点，有可能滞
胀。现在看看股市历史，和油价有很强的关联，08年股市的crash实际上是油价高涨触
发的
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 真正要beat通胀的话，基本金属和粮食是最好的选择。
: 铝，铜，锡，铅，镍，小麦，玉米，大豆。
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 9 大牛展开说说？
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: TIPS就是joke
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 10 为什么呢？
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 真正要beat通胀的话，基本金属和粮食是最好的选择。
: 铝，铜，锡，铅，镍，小麦，玉米，大豆。
|
|
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 11 哈哈, I like that: it's first and foremost treasury
我的问题是这毕竟是一个clean的选择，你说的对TIPS is untested，但是treasury以
前的savings bond是test过的，只不过TIPS把principle和interest分开了。。。
我的前提是small portion DCA
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: TIPS is indexed w/ CPI-U, not "core" CPI, so food and fuel are included.
: However, TIPS has never been tested in an inflationary environment, its
: usefulness is uncertain. Besides, it's first and foremost treasury, w/ a
: small twist.
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 12 Now if you look at the buy-to-open put to call ratio on GLD, it is
speculative/unhedged that are playing now...
Don't you worry about that? Besides, China may have played a big role in
bidding gold up ... don't you worry about that too?
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: When in doubt buy gold. TIPS is a fraud.
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 13 同意呀
我记得谁说过gold不是inflation hedge，而是用来hedge paper currency fail
completely的。。。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 如果是滞胀的话，基本金属也许不会很好，油价不停的涨，如果现在的油价100是新的
: 底点，有可能滞
: 胀。现在看看股市历史，和油价有很强的关联，08年股市的crash实际上是油价高涨触
: 发的
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 14 in history, gold can get cold rather quickly. limit gold under 5% of your
portfolio.
add some raw material funds, e.g. VMIAX
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: Now if you look at the buy-to-open put to call ratio on GLD, it is
: speculative/unhedged that are playing now...
: Don't you worry about that? Besides, China may have played a big role in
: bidding gold up ... don't you worry about that too?
|
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 15 滞胀就没救了，油价现阶段基本是炒作，供求关系没啥变动，也就是仗着美国不敢加息
往上冲。回头经济一放缓，一加息，油价应声落下来。
北美的油田最近两年大幅增产，只不过增加的产能都堆在cushing，所以WTI和Brent的
spread越来越大。现在能直接炼cushing油的几个炼油厂都赚发了。
滞胀的话，唯有粮食。不过我觉得美国滞胀的风险不大。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 如果是滞胀的话，基本金属也许不会很好，油价不停的涨，如果现在的油价100是新的
: 底点，有可能滞
: 胀。现在看看股市历史，和油价有很强的关联，08年股市的crash实际上是油价高涨触
: 发的
|
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 16 老巴不是说了么，如果一个火星人看见地球人把gold费死劲从地下挖出来，然后融了，
然后又在地下挖个坚固的坑，把gold埋下去，再雇上好多人看着，估计会把头发揪光了
也想不出来为什么。
Gold现在的意义就有点像古代用贝壳做货币，反正大家说它值钱它就值钱。等到突然一
天大家不认它了，就啥也不值。
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: in history, gold can get cold rather quickly. limit gold under 5% of your
: portfolio.
: add some raw material funds, e.g. VMIAX
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 17 I like this fund -- the expense ratio is attractive, although I think I have
already missed the start of this cycle for basic materials. Will consider
loading some up during next cycle.
Thanks for the recommendation!
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: in history, gold can get cold rather quickly. limit gold under 5% of your
: portfolio.
: add some raw material funds, e.g. VMIAX
|
B***r
发帖数: 79 | 18 Right.
Gold is not for value investors. It's for speculative. So Soros and Paulson
buy it.
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 老巴不是说了么，如果一个火星人看见地球人把gold费死劲从地下挖出来，然后融了，
: 然后又在地下挖个坚固的坑，把gold埋下去，再雇上好多人看着，估计会把头发揪光了
: 也想不出来为什么。
: Gold现在的意义就有点像古代用贝壳做货币，反正大家说它值钱它就值钱。等到突然一
: 天大家不认它了，就啥也不值。
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 19 这个分析非常精到！
其实讨论inflation hedge主要是这里面有很多不同的观点，inflation hedge本身在
asset allocation里面都不应该占多于10%。我主要是把bond都卖了，所以才会load一
些TIPS回来。。。呵呵
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 滞胀就没救了，油价现阶段基本是炒作，供求关系没啥变动，也就是仗着美国不敢加息
: 往上冲。回头经济一放缓，一加息，油价应声落下来。
: 北美的油田最近两年大幅增产，只不过增加的产能都堆在cushing，所以WTI和Brent的
: spread越来越大。现在能直接炼cushing油的几个炼油厂都赚发了。
: 滞胀的话，唯有粮食。不过我觉得美国滞胀的风险不大。
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 20 我觉得那是2009年QE最猛的时候，很多hedge fund都load了不少黄金。现在主要是散户
跟风的阶段了吧？其实回头看看这段时间内GLD和SPY的return基本也是一样的哈。。。
Paulson
【在 B***r 的大作中提到】
: Right.
: Gold is not for value investors. It's for speculative. So Soros and Paulson
: buy it.
|
|
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 21 油价现阶段基本是炒作,但炒作也是有原因的，对将来的预期，现在全世界的油供应已
经快到顶了。核能
又不发展了，新能源技术还没有上来，世界经济如何在油供应停滞的情况下增长是个问
题。
美国加息加的不好的话，说不定滞胀，
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 滞胀就没救了，油价现阶段基本是炒作，供求关系没啥变动，也就是仗着美国不敢加息
: 往上冲。回头经济一放缓，一加息，油价应声落下来。
: 北美的油田最近两年大幅增产，只不过增加的产能都堆在cushing，所以WTI和Brent的
: spread越来越大。现在能直接炼cushing油的几个炼油厂都赚发了。
: 滞胀的话，唯有粮食。不过我觉得美国滞胀的风险不大。
|
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 22 油到顶了其实也是个大joke，不过别的，统计过按照美国现在的用量，光加拿大的油砂
就够美国用100年。还不说美国近些年在Rocky地区大量发现非常规油气田。这些supply
在油价到150美元一桶的时候马上kick in。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 油价现阶段基本是炒作,但炒作也是有原因的，对将来的预期，现在全世界的油供应已
: 经快到顶了。核能
: 又不发展了，新能源技术还没有上来，世界经济如何在油供应停滞的情况下增长是个问
: 题。
: 美国加息加的不好的话，说不定滞胀，
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 23 you missed the last cycle and yet you think you are able to catch the next
one. :)
I am not trying to be offensive and sarcastic. but truth is nobody really
knows this kind of things.
have
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: I like this fund -- the expense ratio is attractive, although I think I have
: already missed the start of this cycle for basic materials. Will consider
: loading some up during next cycle.
: Thanks for the recommendation!
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 24 People tend to forget TIPS are treasuries first, and because of the way they
are structured, TIPS carry more interest rate risk comparing to ordinary
treasury with same length of maturity.
TIPS MFs are even worse.
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈, I like that: it's first and foremost treasury
: 我的问题是这毕竟是一个clean的选择，你说的对TIPS is untested，但是treasury以
: 前的savings bond是test过的，只不过TIPS把principle和interest分开了。。。
: 我的前提是small portion DCA
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 25 many articles suggest to using "equity income funds" (stocks paying high
divident)
to protect portforlio from inflation
good idea?
they
treasury以
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: People tend to forget TIPS are treasuries first, and because of the way they
: are structured, TIPS carry more interest rate risk comparing to ordinary
: treasury with same length of maturity.
: TIPS MFs are even worse.
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 26 I started investing rather lately. That's why I need to learn from you guys.
:-) I'm also not trying to be too cute on timing the market.
No offense taken, hehe.
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: you missed the last cycle and yet you think you are able to catch the next
: one. :)
: I am not trying to be offensive and sarcastic. but truth is nobody really
: knows this kind of things.
:
: have
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 27 Why TIPS carries more interest rate risk than regular TSY?
I'm thinking of buying TIPS as a long term insurance plan for unexpected
hyperinflation in the long run. It is not necessary that inflation always
moves with intereste rate, is it?
I agree with you that TIPS is essentially TSY. However I would think that it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
BTW, I'm not 100% sure but I think TIPS principle won't be adjusted down in the case of deflation, right?
they
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: People tend to forget TIPS are treasuries first, and because of the way they
: are structured, TIPS carry more interest rate risk comparing to ordinary
: treasury with same length of maturity.
: TIPS MFs are even worse.
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 28 哦，还有我能想到的是TIPS，尤其是TIPS MFs会相对volatile，that's why I think
DCA is important。。。 |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 29 I am surprised there are still so many gold bashers
gold will not stop untill all of them converted to gold bugs |
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 30 我记得有人估算过， 如果在油价到150美元一桶，美国经济增长率要下降2%-3%，基本
上是没有经济增
长了。
supply
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 油到顶了其实也是个大joke，不过别的，统计过按照美国现在的用量，光加拿大的油砂
: 就够美国用100年。还不说美国近些年在Rocky地区大量发现非常规油气田。这些supply
: 在油价到150美元一桶的时候马上kick in。
|
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 31 you need to google "hyperinflation" to see what it really is
dont just assume it is a "ultra high inflation"
it is a totally different animal
it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
in the case of deflation, right?
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: Why TIPS carries more interest rate risk than regular TSY?
: I'm thinking of buying TIPS as a long term insurance plan for unexpected
: hyperinflation in the long run. It is not necessary that inflation always
: moves with intereste rate, is it?
: I agree with you that TIPS is essentially TSY. However I would think that it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
: BTW, I'm not 100% sure but I think TIPS principle won't be adjusted down in the case of deflation, right?
:
: they
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 32 呵呵,my bad，googled and learnt，that is not what I meant and I don't expect
it to happen in the US, although in that case it would be gold's world as
you stated
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: you need to google "hyperinflation" to see what it really is
: dont just assume it is a "ultra high inflation"
: it is a totally different animal
:
: it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
: in the case of deflation, right?
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 33 我记得M*上说100到120的增幅相当于take out了social security那2%，这么说我们看
到的估算是consistent的。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 我记得有人估算过， 如果在油价到150美元一桶，美国经济增长率要下降2%-3%，基本
: 上是没有经济增
: 长了。
:
: supply
|
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 34 那是现在呀，如果是10年以后油价150一捅大家会觉得很便宜，
现在油价没有可能sustain在150一桶，很简单，如果在150半年，全世界重新衰退，
demand一下来，油价又变60。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 我记得有人估算过， 如果在油价到150美元一桶，美国经济增长率要下降2%-3%，基本
: 上是没有经济增
: 长了。
:
: supply
|
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 35 不是bash gold，也不是说gold不会涨。
但是现在这个status我会把gold全部换成basic material，例如铜，锡，precious
metal里面，银子也比金子好，铂如果汽车工业能稳步复苏上升空间也很大。
实际上我已经这么做了。IRA里面hold的金子从2008年底到三月初已经陆陆续续换成上
面说的这些了。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I am surprised there are still so many gold bashers
: gold will not stop untill all of them converted to gold bugs
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 36 那时候，我就全仓油了。
不过如果美元像现在这样贬下去，投机完全有可能使油价在1-半年到达150. 如果美联
储采取措施太
晚，到了一个拐点，美元泡么破了，那就是不可控的通膨。那时候，很多美国人会想把
大本投入监狱。
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 那是现在呀，如果是10年以后油价150一捅大家会觉得很便宜，
: 现在油价没有可能sustain在150一桶，很简单，如果在150半年，全世界重新衰退，
: demand一下来，油价又变60。
|
t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 37 我hold了大概15%的油，被contango吃的一塌糊涂。当时没仔细研究，不懂这些东西。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 那时候，我就全仓油了。
: 不过如果美元像现在这样贬下去，投机完全有可能使油价在1-半年到达150. 如果美联
: 储采取措施太
: 晚，到了一个拐点，美元泡么破了，那就是不可控的通膨。那时候，很多美国人会想把
: 大本投入监狱。
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 38 Although I don't exactly think gold is in bubble state (the purchasing
power of gold, even at $1400, has been declining over the years). I think
the idea that the bubble will form only when all your friends own more
than a token amount of gold-related investments is ridiculous.
Nickel formed a perfect bubble shape in late 80s. Cocoa formed a perfect
bubble shape in late 70s. How many people have Nickel or Cocoa as their
retirement portfolio?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I am surprised there are still so many gold bashers
: gold will not stop untill all of them converted to gold bugs
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 39 I am doing the opposite
gold is getting stronger than other metals
looking at GSR
it has come down a long way from 70+ to 36 in a little bit more than one
year
it is due for a correction imo
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 不是bash gold，也不是说gold不会涨。
: 但是现在这个status我会把gold全部换成basic material，例如铜，锡，precious
: metal里面，银子也比金子好，铂如果汽车工业能稳步复苏上升空间也很大。
: 实际上我已经这么做了。IRA里面hold的金子从2008年底到三月初已经陆陆续续换成上
: 面说的这些了。
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 40 i am learning, too. i have to say that you will definitely learn more on
websites such as bogleheads.org than here. there is no 100% inflation proof
asset class. there will be gold basher, tips basher, commodity basher. as
long as you have a diversified portfolio with some inflation hedging element
in it, you will do just fine most of the time.do you really think gold
bullion/tip/commodity can save you when extreme situation happens? if, God
forbid, ultra-hyper-super-uber-inflation wipes me out, so be it.
guys.
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: I started investing rather lately. That's why I need to learn from you guys.
: :-) I'm also not trying to be too cute on timing the market.
: No offense taken, hehe.
|
|
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 41 Thursday, the IMF released a report named World Economic Outlook.
Its analytic chapter says that the recent spike in oil prices suggest
that the global oil market has entered a period of increased scarcity.
According to the report, the origins of this scarcity can be traced to
the tension between the upward shift in global oil consumption growth
due to fast-growing emerging market economies and supply constraints,
which have led to a downshift in oil supply growth.
The report notes that scarcity is reinforced by the low responsiveness
of both oil demand and oil supply to price changes, especially in the
short-to- medium term.
The report says an unexpected sizable downturn in oil supply trend
growth of 1 percentage point would slow annual global economic growth by
less than 0.25 percent in the medium and long term.
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 那是现在呀，如果是10年以后油价150一捅大家会觉得很便宜，
: 现在油价没有可能sustain在150一桶，很简单，如果在150半年，全世界重新衰退，
: demand一下来，油价又变60。
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 42 if you treat gold as money
you can understand the difference
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Although I don't exactly think gold is in bubble state (the purchasing
: power of gold, even at $1400, has been declining over the years). I think
: the idea that the bubble will form only when all your friends own more
: than a token amount of gold-related investments is ridiculous.
: Nickel formed a perfect bubble shape in late 80s. Cocoa formed a perfect
: bubble shape in late 70s. How many people have Nickel or Cocoa as their
: retirement portfolio?
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 43 Because the way TIPS are structured, the terminal payment is increased
throughout the life of the security (OK, assuming CPI-U is always positive),
which ensures TIPS will have greater duration than traditional treasuries
of equal maturity, thus more sensitive to interest rate changes.
TIPS is a better diversifier, yes, but I will only be interested in it if
the real rate is above 2%, preferably 3%.
Prior to maturity, the accrued principal of a TIPS can go below the face
value.
it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
in the case of deflation, right?
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: Why TIPS carries more interest rate risk than regular TSY?
: I'm thinking of buying TIPS as a long term insurance plan for unexpected
: hyperinflation in the long run. It is not necessary that inflation always
: moves with intereste rate, is it?
: I agree with you that TIPS is essentially TSY. However I would think that it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
: BTW, I'm not 100% sure but I think TIPS principle won't be adjusted down in the case of deflation, right?
:
: they
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 44 what is GSR?
hehe, let us wait a year and see.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I am doing the opposite
: gold is getting stronger than other metals
: looking at GSR
: it has come down a long way from 70+ to 36 in a little bit more than one
: year
: it is due for a correction imo
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 45 你要赌油的话，PGH这种partnership最好了，还有些类似的和油价correlation >0.8的
，另外还有>6%的dividend。
或者像版大指的，oil pipeline，尤其你要看谁家有从Cushing出来的管道，现在
Cushing堆满了油出不来。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: Thursday, the IMF released a report named World Economic Outlook.
: Its analytic chapter says that the recent spike in oil prices suggest
: that the global oil market has entered a period of increased scarcity.
: According to the report, the origins of this scarcity can be traced to
: the tension between the upward shift in global oil consumption growth
: due to fast-growing emerging market economies and supply constraints,
: which have led to a downshift in oil supply growth.
:
: The report notes that scarcity is reinforced by the low responsiveness
: of both oil demand and oil supply to price changes, especially in the
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 46 gold silver ratio
if you would hold your base metals, hold them tight during the coming
deflation
storm
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: what is GSR?
: hehe, let us wait a year and see.
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 47 you sure deflation is coming ?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: gold silver ratio
: if you would hold your base metals, hold them tight during the coming
: deflation
: storm
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 48 nobody talks about it anymore, right?
that's when it comes out and show off its muscles
the debt issue in Portugal might provide a good catalyst
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: you sure deflation is coming ?
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 49 这个，要得西班牙倒下了我才信:)
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: nobody talks about it anymore, right?
: that's when it comes out and show off its muscles
: the debt issue in Portugal might provide a good catalyst
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 50 谢谢！你很nice！
proof
element
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: i am learning, too. i have to say that you will definitely learn more on
: websites such as bogleheads.org than here. there is no 100% inflation proof
: asset class. there will be gold basher, tips basher, commodity basher. as
: long as you have a diversified portfolio with some inflation hedging element
: in it, you will do just fine most of the time.do you really think gold
: bullion/tip/commodity can save you when extreme situation happens? if, God
: forbid, ultra-hyper-super-uber-inflation wipes me out, so be it.
:
: guys.
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|
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l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 51 OK， I got the duration part and I agree.
"I will only be interested in it if the real rate is above 2%, preferably 3%
."
The real rate is basically the coupon rate for TIPS, right? Besides, I would expect the "normal" (although I start to lose the sense of what is normal lately ^-^) short term rate will be around 2-3%. Or you are actually refering to the
cPI-U being 2-3%.
I understand that the price of TIPS on the secondary market is rather
volatile and can go below face value. But upon maturity, it will alway be
greater than or equal to the face value... An additional thought: does it
indicate that TIPS is better purchase and hold as a ladder? This won't suit
my case since my TIPS holdings is too low to justify the hussle.
You are very knowledgable and thanks for sharing you thoughts.
),
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Because the way TIPS are structured, the terminal payment is increased
: throughout the life of the security (OK, assuming CPI-U is always positive),
: which ensures TIPS will have greater duration than traditional treasuries
: of equal maturity, thus more sensitive to interest rate changes.
: TIPS is a better diversifier, yes, but I will only be interested in it if
: the real rate is above 2%, preferably 3%.
: Prior to maturity, the accrued principal of a TIPS can go below the face
: value.
:
: it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
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l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 52 有pipeline的MF推荐么，我比较害怕MLP的税麻烦
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 你要赌油的话，PGH这种partnership最好了，还有些类似的和油价correlation >0.8的
: ，另外还有>6%的dividend。
: 或者像版大指的，oil pipeline，尤其你要看谁家有从Cushing出来的管道，现在
: Cushing堆满了油出不来。
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 53 Yes, coupon rate. It would be nice to have CPI-U + 3% with little risk if
one intended to hold it to maturity.
You are right, TIPS is better for holding to maturity. I generally stay away
from TIPS MFs or ETFs.
3%
would expect the "normal" (although I start to lose the sense of what is
normal lately ^-^) short term rate will be around 2-3%. Or you are actually
refering to the
suit
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: OK， I got the duration part and I agree.
: "I will only be interested in it if the real rate is above 2%, preferably 3%
: ."
: The real rate is basically the coupon rate for TIPS, right? Besides, I would expect the "normal" (although I start to lose the sense of what is normal lately ^-^) short term rate will be around 2-3%. Or you are actually refering to the
: cPI-U being 2-3%.
: I understand that the price of TIPS on the secondary market is rather
: volatile and can go below face value. But upon maturity, it will alway be
: greater than or equal to the face value... An additional thought: does it
: indicate that TIPS is better purchase and hold as a ladder? This won't suit
: my case since my TIPS holdings is too low to justify the hussle.
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 54 could you suggest some 有些类似的和油价correlation >0.8的，另外还有>6%的
dividend
thanks
【在 t****g 的大作中提到】
: 你要赌油的话，PGH这种partnership最好了，还有些类似的和油价correlation >0.8的
: ，另外还有>6%的dividend。
: 或者像版大指的，oil pipeline，尤其你要看谁家有从Cushing出来的管道，现在
: Cushing堆满了油出不来。
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 55 gold is running harder than silver and copper is falling like a rock
deflation is giving signals, it's already on the horizon
I am doing the opposite
gold is getting stronger than other metals
looking at GSR
it has come down a long way from 70+ to 36 in a little bit more than one
year
it is due for a correction imo
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I am doing the opposite
: gold is getting stronger than other metals
: looking at GSR
: it has come down a long way from 70+ to 36 in a little bit more than one
: year
: it is due for a correction imo
|
