T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 1 这是他们自己算的利率，目前fixed rate 0, inflation rate at Nov, 1, 2010是0.37
%/half year, 按他们的公式算出来等价APR是0.74%.
May, 1 2011的利率还没出来，目前看来应该差不多。你这个should是怎么来的？
另外提前支取还可能有penalty, 1年不能取，5年之内取出来有3month interest
penalty
可能偶尔很高，取决于你的fix rate和当时的inflation rate, 08年的时候inflation
可能达到了2.5%/half year, 如果你的fix rate是1.5%, 那你的apr就是6.5%；6.5%/
half year是绝没有可能的，除非你的fix rate是8%以上。那应该是90年以前买的了。
如果你现在买, fix rate is 0, 除非inflation rate超过5% (中国目前的通胀速度)，
你的rate都不可能到5%,美国在过去13年之内还没有超过5%的时候
your |
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 2 来自主题: Investment版 - 很想烧国债 PIMCO will purchase Treasuries on recession risk
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PIMCO-will-change-US-short-rb-329
老哥说了，美国再次进入衰退，他才会买国债。
Asked Friday what would change his bet against government debt, Gross told Reuters: "Treasury yields are currently yielding substantially less than historical averages when compared with inflation. Perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession that substantially lowered inflation and inflationary expectatio... 阅读全帖 |
|
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 3 There are several advantages.
1. A well-chosen stock portfolio is inflation-protected. When inflation
comes, very good companies, such as Coco-cola, Pepsi, can increase their
dividends by raising their product prices. Bonds are not inflation proteced,
as you may know.
2. Even without inflation, stock portfolio can appreciate with the economy.
Bonds will never appreciate.
The only disadvantage is the downside. |
|
r*******y
发帖数: 290 | 4 In today's market, there is no such investment that will
guarentee you 3% return. The breakeven inflation rate for TIPs is 2.5%,
today's inflation is 2%. TIPs does not protect your purchasing power.
It only protects if the realized inflation rate is higher than the expected
inflation rate, which is 2.5%. |
|
r*******y
发帖数: 290 | 5 In today's market, there is no such investment that will
guarentee you 3% return. The breakeven inflation rate for TIPs is 2.5%,
today's inflation is 2%. TIPs does not protect your purchasing power.
It only protects if the realized inflation rate is higher than the expected
inflation rate, which is 2.5%. |
|
c********h
发帖数: 7827 | 6 Buying a House During Inflation
3. If you can see inflation happening, then buying a house could be an
excellent move. If inflation is at an all time high in real estate, you
should wait to buy a house. As inflation affects lives and people need to
sell their homes, they will be forced to sell for less than it was
previously worth. As less homes are put on the market, the competition for
the buyer goes up and the prices are reduced. Since there are not as many
buyers who can afford to b |
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 7 What Inflation Is: Inflation is the sustained increase in the average cost
of goods and services. It is measured in an annual percentage rate that
shows you how much less your dollar will buy this year as opposed to
previous years. People have written books and gotten into life long debates
about the causes of inflation but there are two theories that are most
agreed upon. Demand-pull inflation happens when there is an abundance of
money and not enough product or services to meet the demand of t |
|
q**j
发帖数: 10612 | 8 玩I-bond无非两个因素， fixed rate和float rate。每个10月，四月底，大家都在犹豫
应不应该早买。这里在下先讲一下如何玩float rate。
根据规则：Also, every May and November, the Treasury announces a semiannual
inflation rate based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban
consumers (CPI-U). The semiannual inflation rate announced in May is a measure
of inflation from the previous October through March; the rate announced in
November is a measure of inflation from the previous April through September.
The CPI-U is published monthly by the |
|
s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: smokinggun (硝烟), 信区: Military
标 题: 格林斯潘涉嫌伪造美国的低通货膨胀率数据
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 18 00:19:21 2011, 美东)
Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of
what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the
Consumer Price Index honestly.
Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President
Reagan to 2006 under President George... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 10 【 以下文字转载自 MacroInvesting 俱乐部 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: MacroInvesting
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之二）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 4 03:30:22 2009, 美东)
Money Supply and CPI
社会生产在发展，在不断创造新财富，这就要求货币供应(money supply)相应增长。货
币供应增长太快，就会造成inflation(包括asset price inflation)。增长不够，就会
造成deflation。过高的inflation会造成抢购和挤兑，甚至革命。而deflation之下东
西越来越便宜，造成人们defer消费，这样恰恰会加剧deflation，形成恶性循环而导致
大萧条。一般认为，长期温和的inflation是最符合统治者需要的，因为这样可以缓慢
地消灭savings，温水煮青蛙地剥夺人民的劳动所得。
CPI的猫腻很多。首先顾名思义，Consumer Price Index只考虑消费品，不包括
assetprice。房价涨了，根本不包括在CP |
|
|
|
l***n
发帖数: 812 | 13 QE2 is practically printing money to save the credit market. the devaluation
of US dollar would drive the commodity price up, which already happened.
oil price went up to the level can support margin in costly ultra deep water
drilling. hence more contract at better rates for drys.
however, ppl started to talk about fed's role to battle inflation and it may
jeopardize QE2's execution. in addition, other part of the world, say China
, started to fight with inflation already, a heads-up to the fed... 阅读全帖 |
|
b*p
发帖数: 242 | 14 Hook and Cook-son 这两个姓取得真是有水平啊。不要脸的金融骗子印度金子卖不动，
来煽风点火骗中国人买了哈。印度人还真是拜金，就喜欢囤金子做首饰嫁妆，标榜自己
身份。在美国也不例外。
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/life/religion/new/7280301.html
Indians not celebrating price of gold during Diwali
Jewelers say they're selling fewer items for annual festival
By KATE SHELLNUTT
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Nov. 5, 2010, 5:44AM
Record-high gold prices have hurt business for local Indian jewelers during
Diwali, the popular Hindu festival of lights and the start of a new fiscal
year.
For the... 阅读全帖 |
|
l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 15 不要忘了single property没有diversify任何随机和地域风险，reit和reit fund我觉
得更靠谱些。。。
你计算房子的cost算depreciation了么？为什么选择residential而不是commercial
properties？而且房子的收益leverage之后跟没有leverage的其他instruments比是不
公平的。
过去的一个DECADE 是BOND 的牛市， 在未来的几年， 恐怕很难再指望BOND 每年将近
10%的收益了。
内，都很难说是很好的 INFLATION HEDGE。不过， 因为拥有STCOK 也是拥有对上司公
司拥有的一部分HARD ASSET的CLAIM， 长期看，STOCK是比BOND 更好INFLATION HEDGE
。至于在INFLATION 的环境下，究竟购买什么样的STOCK 最 MAKE SENSE， 我希望以后
发贴详细探讨。
购买 RENTAL PROPERTY 出租。首先我们现在还处于美国房市很多年的一个低谷，房子
的按揭贷款利率也仍然相对较低。 其次， 统计资料， 很多美国人失去自己的HOUSE... 阅读全帖 |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 16 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-keynesian-solutions-af
Submitted by Jim Quinn Of The Burning Platform
Keynesian Solutions - After Total Failure -Try, Try Again
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist
system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation,
governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of
the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but
they confiscate arbitrarily; and... 阅读全帖 |
|
d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 17 The Federal Reserve on Tuesday left monetary policy on hold but said
financial market turbulence posed threats to economic growth, leaving the
door open to further easing next year.
Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
The Fed characterized the U.S. economy as expanding moderately despite an
apparent slowing in global growth, though it added that unemployment
remains elevated and housing activity de... 阅读全帖 |
|
i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 18 Look at that lackluster corporate earning!
On top of that, inflation of US is hurting the consumers. Imported goods
from China couldn't cool the inflation down anymore, coz inflation in China is just crazy. Oil price is heading
towards $110, $120 rapidly.
The only reason for the market to rally is the artificial low interest! Ordinary American
cannot save but have to invest.
But as inflation accelerates, can Fed keep its low interest promise to
2014??? I don't think so.
This feast is coming to a... 阅读全帖 |
|
t******y
发帖数: 6206 | 19 Fed Statement Tracker
Aug. 01, 2012 → Sep. 13, 2012 show changes Compare other statements »
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August
suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace
in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment
rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but
growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing
sector has shown some further sign... 阅读全帖 |
|
g**c
发帖数: 2339 | 20 Goldman Sachs strategists have issued a big warning to clients hiding out in
bond funds: You're about to lose your shirt.
The reason: interest rates began rising this week, and if they return to the
historical average yield of 3 percent, prices for long-term bonds will
plummet. (By their very nature, fixed income prices must fall if rates rise.)
"A reversion of risk premiums to historical averages of 6% nominal rates (3%
real rates and 3% inflation) would suggest estimated losses in portfolios
w... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**********4
发帖数: 187 | 21 简单说，Fed对钱的概念和我们不一样，因为Fed可以随便印钱的
Fed真正要控制的，是流通中的货币量M2
Fed现在主要是通过控制银行的balance sheet来达到这种目的
比如Fed每个月买入85 billion MBS，就等于先印钱，然后拿印出来的钱从银行手中买
来MBS
那整个金融体系，就平白每个月多了85 billion USD出来
当然，实际没这么简单，还要乘以一个multiplier，所以多出来的一般比85 billion还多
至于Fed怎么把印的钱收回来，就不好说了，因为这取决于经济的走势
Fed的理想情况，是经济慢慢复苏，但不要一下子过热
然后Fed就可以慢慢减少MBS的购买，也就是慢慢少印钱
必要时候，还可以卖出MBS，直接把钱收回来
普遍的担心，是万一inflation上升过快，而经济又没有完全复苏，怎么办？
这种情况，Fed就陷入两难境地
而一旦出现这种情况，非常难办
美国人常说，God bless America
实际中，美国真的是非常幸运
Fed这样大肆印钱，inflation竟然还很低，你说美国幸运不幸运？
首先，欧洲日本竟然经济更差，导致美元强势
所有... 阅读全帖 |
|
a*******t
发帖数: 1886 | 22 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A comment from a hawkish Federal Reserve
official on Thursday that bond buying should continue beyond its scheduled
end lifted stock markets and surprised many observers.
The Federal Reserve should consider extending its bond-buying program beyond
October due to the market sell-off to see how the U.S. economic outlook
evolves, said James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Fed, on Thursday.
At the moment, the Fed is buying $15 billion in securities each month,
havi... 阅读全帖 |
|
t****u
发帖数: 8614 | 23 Dude, House purchased with 400K loan is far far better
than house rented at $1500/mon. You igored the living
quality difference which sometimes is very important.
The equivelant rent range for a house purchased with
400K loan is around $2200 to $2400/mon, even rent went
down a lot.
And what if there is a big inflation? Rent, House value,
and interest will centainly all go up with inflation (I
mean a long term inflation. For short term, inflation
might pull down the house price, but for a long te |
|
f******r
发帖数: 1105 | 24 THE Commonwealth Bank has slugged homeowners on Melbourne Cup Day by raising
its standard mortgage rate by almost double the increase in official rates
announced by the Reserve Bank.
CBA was the first to follow the RBA's increase, increasing its standard
variable mortgage rate by 45 basis points, nearly double the Reserve Bank's
increase of 25 basis points.
At its annual meeting last week, the nation's biggest lender revealed a $6.1
billion profit for the last financial year.
The bank said toda... 阅读全帖 |
|
A*******y
发帖数: 11148 | 25
Yes, prices always rise, and so inflation always exists.
The textbook is skewed... Inflation is a general term and can be
simultaneously positive and negative to the economy. In fact most economists
favor a low steady rate of inflation.
But anyway, the statement that there is NO inflation in China just makes me
laugh.
http://finance.ifeng.com/news/special/201005data/20100610/2301503.shtml |
|
g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 26 (1) 泡沫: 股市, bit frothy有点泡沫:房市
(2) 全球余震: 投资者预期美国更高的回报，从新兴市场自己的钱拿出来
(3) 稀缺的工作机会
(4) 政治干预
-----------------------------------
(1) Bubbles. They’re hard to spot when you’re in them, but there certainly
is some risk that artificially low interest rates have pushed stock prices
a lot higher than they’d be otherwise. Bernard Baumohl of the Economic
Outlook Group points out that margin debt—which is basically borrowed money
used to buy stocks--is at an all-time high of $445 billion, driven at least
in p... 阅读全帖 |
|
i********s
发帖数: 105 | 27 其实大家常说的保值实际上是指保持购买能力。明白了这一点，就好很多。简单一点说
，黄金其实也只是一种货币。如果经济体崩溃，供给不足，不管你持有什么货币，购买
力无论如何都会下降（在这种时候，保持消费的最好办法是拥有商品，尤其是Staple
Goods)。好了，如果经济体系不崩溃，只是有Inflation的麻烦，看上去黄金似乎可以
保持购买力了，因为黄金的供给是有限的，而纸币的供给理论上是无限的。但问题在于
，如果假设我们没有Information Advantage（你如果认为你可以Beat Market，那是另
外一码事 - 那我得叫你大哥先啊），当Inflation的信号出现的时候，纸币与黄金的兑
换价格也会相应变化，根据市场对于今后Inflation的预期相应地Discount纸币。所以
，我们现在买黄金的话，实际上无非是把手里的纸币提前贬值而已。当然，我们可以希
望当前市场里的Discount Rate低于今后实际的Inflation下的Discount Rate，而这也
是大多数投资人的心理。但是，嘿嘿，这又是另外一个层面上的故事了,涉及到心理学
，社会学以及政治学中间很多有趣 |
|
B******e
发帖数: 5730 | 28 bearish 能否说明通膨如何而来？
我想 bearish 的目标是 asset inflation, or in particular, real estate
inflation
经济学的原理说，通膨是由于过多的钱追逐有限的商品造成的
因为中国和其他第三世界国家，不断地互相竞争对美输出廉价商品
Core CPI 大幅上升的机会不大
传统上，由商品价格inflation 造成 asset inflation 的机会不大
是看到 Obama政府在借钱印钱
但是如果这些钱进不了湾区买房阶级的口袋
请问房价如何上扬？ |
|
x***m
发帖数: 1733 | 29 ni lao calculated so fast, only in 3 minutes. hehe
I guess except sevens, all the others missed a point about the effect of
inflation. Even on paper, the break
point is 6% after 5 or 7 years. however, 30 years later, the dollar is not
as value as it is today.
Thus, from nominal terms, if 5 years later, the break even rate is above 6%,
namely you will lose money in
terms of over all interest payment. but we don't count the inflation effect,
namely the later payment is inflated
dollars.
can ni lao... 阅读全帖 |
|
x***m
发帖数: 1733 | 30 Indeed, inflation is a wild card.
However, when extreme inflation comes early say in 7 years, it would be
advantage to you to carry some
mortgages. But you want it to be fixed rate, so that you can pay inflation
dollars.
If the inflation is something like 5 to 6 percent for another 10 to 20 year,
it is really hard to say which is better,
without seeing a simulation. |
|
C********e
发帖数: 202 | 31 I don't diagree with what you've observed. What's made this all happen is
not the "invisible hand", it's the US government. When US needed to buy
everything from overseas where everything was "globalized" to, they needed
strong $; now that they want to bring back jobs and sell everything to
overseas, they need the toilet $.
As toilet as it is, how many out there really think US$ will lose its
reserve currency status?
The inevitable by-product of the toilet $ is inflation. You can hedge
inflation... 阅读全帖 |
|
n***s
发帖数: 163 | 32 If you hit AMT, mortgage interest is fully deductible (~44%) and property
tax is state tax deductible (~9%).
买房vs租房最重要的factor就是
1) your actual tax situation。这个只有你个人清楚，没必要争论。
2) inflation rate。长期看来，房价和房租都是按inflation rate增长的。现在市场
对未来每年inflation的期望大概是2.5%（参看TIPS rate）。你可以认为你买的房子能
beat (or lose to) inflation, but that's just your speculation。
3) rate of return from alternative investment。这个跟个人的investment skill/
style，以及避税手段很相关。还有market总是有很大risk，很难预测。这个可能是影
响买房vs租房最不确定的因素。
4) how soon you plan to sel... 阅读全帖 |
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 33 When you are renting, you have the option of flexibility, and the risk of
real-estate or rent inflation (which can be somewhat hedged with reasonable
investment strategy).
When you are buying, you have the option of levered asset appreciation, as
well as the risk of levered asset depreciation. Your living "rent" is also
somewhat protected as long as you can maintain stable income (but there is
never a guarantee). You are still, however, vulnerable on economic shocks or
run-away inflation. Housin... 阅读全帖 |
|
m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 34 三藩市房东的血泪史 The Tragic History of SF Landlords
作者：苦叶
| 发表于2011年9月22日《星岛日报》
（零）前言
最近『星岛日报』新闻上，有位三藩市华人房东因租霸长期欠租，而被迫银主盘。在银
行清盘的过程中，发现这些导致他破产的租客仍然住在他的楼房里，激愤难当！他与这
些租客发生骂战，并升级到肢体冲突。事后，租霸恶人先告状，报警把房东送进了牢房
。可怜的房东，因为不懂租务法律，白白失去了心爱的房子，一生的积蓄也化为虚有，
还失去了做人的尊严。
这样的故事天天发生，华人业主的租务纠纷，让许多人倾家荡产。甜美的美国梦，有可
能一下子就掉进官非的深渊。这样的故事罄竹难书，令人心酸。三藩市的租务法律为何
到了这种不公平的地步？这要从其租务条例的简史说起。
（一）背景
三藩市是弹丸之地，面积7英里x7英里（121平方公里），人口约80万。人口密度与香港
大致一样（约6200人/平方公里），面积只是香港的十分之一，却没有多少民用的高楼
大厦，因此住房一贯紧张。90%以上的民居是建于20年代的两层或三层的墙贴墙的窄长
房子。每个房子格局都差不多，第一层都是... 阅读全帖 |
|
m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 35 "If the inflation goes up, bond interest will go up too."
也不怕风大删了舌头，什么都敢招呼
bond price and rates in general react to QE and QE only. Inflation is NOT a
factor for how many years already?
What was the real inflation in the past 5-10 years? What was the bond rate
today? 你懂inflation怎么定义么？
多争论无意义。你肯定不能退休，想都不要想了，瞎耽误时间
8 |
|
i*****s
发帖数: 15215 | 36 Bank of Canada holds rates, sees faster recovery
By Louise Egan and Randall Palmer | Reuters
OTTAWA (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate at 1 percent
on Tuesday, but forecast a faster Canadian recovery than expected despite an
increasingly worrying outlook for the global economy.
Governor Mark Carney has held the central bank's rate unchanged for 16
months, the longest period without a rate change since the bank began
targeting the overnight rate in 1994. A below-inflation 1 p... 阅读全帖 |
|
h****e
发帖数: 292 | 37 http://sports.yahoo.com/news/physicist-emailed-us-explain-exact
摘要：
“In a just world, you the media, would be apologizing or get sued for
everything you own. This was obviously done with malicious intent.
Unfortunately, one of the more unjust aspects of press freedom is that the
media is shielded from being sued by public figures. That leaves the media
free, except by their own restraint, to lie, sensationalize, and slander. ”
---------------------------------------------------------------------... 阅读全帖 |
|
R*2
发帖数: 1631 | 38 In the weeks and months before the AFC Championship Game, McNally
periodically exchanged text messages with the Patriots equipment assistant
primarily responsible for the preparation of the Patriots game balls, John
Jastremski. In a number of those text messages, McNally and Jastremski
discussed the air pressure of Patriots game balls, Tom Brady‟s
unhappiness with the inflation level of Patriots game balls, Jastremski&#
8223;s plan to provide McNally with a “needle” for use by McNally, and... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**********t
发帖数: 2636 | 39 方便与否只是一方面。正好你列的两款我和我gg各用一款，我们side by side比较过
你的那个air pad的只有self-inflating的1/5那么多，卷起来非常小，放backpack里几
乎不占地方。self-inflating的体积就大多了。重量上没啥区别。air pad舒适程度要
高很多，吹起来以后比self-inflating的厚一倍
air pad如果被捅破漏气，你就一点insulation都没有了; self-inflating的漏气也有
一定的insulation。你如果长的trip可靠性高的当然好
我没比较过低温下的保暖程度，这个也很重要 |
|
|
s*****e
发帖数: 21415 | 41 下面讲讲投资的产品，这里主要就是说有价证券。房地产是个大坑，
不好说。古董和其他实物我也不怎么懂。
有价证券基本上分为股票，债券，商品，和外汇。
如果大家的目标是资本增值，长期看beat inflation，唯一有可能达
成这个目标的长期投资是股票。这就回到我刚才的话题，投资到底是
为什么目的，是赚小钱还是赚大钱。
为什么呢？债券的利息，除非承担必要的风险，否则利息是不可能战
胜inflation的。即使是政府的 inflation adjusted债券，比如说TIP
的ETF，也很难。（如果大家知道CPI数字里面的猫腻的话，估计就很
容易理解了）。商品和外汇是都是实物，长期看持有实物（非艺术品）
完全是和人类的创造力对立，肯定没啥好结果。考虑到carry cost，
商品外汇的长期投资回报率都是负数。
所以剩下的只有股票了。马克思教育我们，资本是榨取剩余价值的唯一
渠道。只要有资本，你就能榨取别人的剩余价值。——这就是股票为什
么能beat inflation的根本，因为虽然是一股，但是代表了你雇佣了
别人帮你干活。所以大家投资股票的时候不妨心理想象一下在某个边远
地区的矿井里正有十... 阅读全帖 |
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 42 才300w，也就是一个R01的钱
Award Abstract #1044978
Collaborative Research: BICEP2 and SPUD - A Search for Inflation with
Degree-Scale Polarimetry from the South Pole
NSF Org: PLR
Division of Polar Programs
divider line
Initial Amendment Date: June 9, 2010
divider line
Latest Amendment Date: July 18, 2011
divider line
Award Number: 1044978
divider line
Award Instrument: Continuing grant
divider line
Program Manager: Vladimir O. Papitashvili
PLR Division of Polar Programs
GEO Director... 阅读全帖 |
|
M****N
发帖数: 27 | 43 你这个帖子的信息量好大呀。最近几年全世界经济都违背经济学常识，但是也能马后炮
找到原因：
where is the missing inflation?
首先中国的supposed inflation被房地产这个庞大的蓄水池给吸走很多了，没怎么参与
流通就固化了。还有就是外汇管制，让国内与外界无法成为一个free market,所以就很
难用主流经济学去解释很多东西了。
美国的missing inflation还是更好解释。一方面，美国的QE相对中国来说算非常克制
的：美国的M2从2007到2017才增长了不到一倍，而中国同期增长了四倍多。另一方面，
美国QE的钱都大部分跑到境外去变成别国的外汇储备或投资了,也是没怎么参与流通就
固化了；这个可以从M2/GDP的ration可以看出：2017年美国的M2是GDP的0.69倍，所以
美国应该感受到通缩而不是通胀，而中国的M2是其GDP的2.08倍，所以中国的通胀还是
不小。
去年开始，美联储老加息，大家的预期是还要加息，所以美元回流: missing
inflation is coming back... |
|
o***1
发帖数: 592 | 44 Is the Big Bang in the Bible?
By Karl W. Giberson March 23, 2014 12:00 AM The Daily Beast
The “Big Bang” theory of the origin of the universe got a big boost this
week when scientists reported the discovery of 14-billion-year-old echoes of
the universe’s first moments—the first proof of an expanding universe,
and the last piece of Einstein’s general theory of relativity.
Major discovery bolsters Big Bang theory of universe AFP
5 Reasons to Care About New Big Bang Inflation Theory Discovery SPACE... 阅读全帖 |
|
c**********g
发帖数: 222 | 45 我现在要攻击inflation了。:)做为观众，我觉得inflation走火入魔了，尤其是这个et
ernal inflation，把inflation的美都搞没了。 |
|
z**********i
发帖数: 12276 | 46 经过这段时间的学习,得到如下收获.
这是个COUNT DATA,OVERDISPERSED, ZERO-INFLATED.
如下方法我需要比较:
POISSON, NEGATIVE BINOMIAL, ZERO-INFLATED POISSON, ZERO-INFLATED NEGATIVE
BINOMIAL.
我面临的问题:我们的数据只能用SAS9.1
没有现成的ZERO-INFLATED MODEL在9.1上.
我需要用NLMIXED PROCEDURE自己写点程序.NLMIXED没法处理REPEATED,只能放到RANDOM
里考虑.
希望能继续得到大家的帮助和建议.
多谢!!
a
year? |
|
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 47 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: walstudio (午夜未眠人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Hyperinflation 2.0
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Apr 26 14:56:43 2011, 美东)
Very interesting
-----------------------------------
Economist Allan Meltzer explains how hyper-inflation developed in the 1970s.
It wasn't because people were stupid then. It wasn't because they didn't
care about inflation. It wasn't because they didn't think inflation was a
problem.
It was because they thought pumping money into the economy would strengthen
the rec... 阅读全帖 |
|
L********l
发帖数: 575 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 bluechips 俱乐部 】
发信人: sanguo (小牛向前冲), 信区: bluechips
标 题: China's GDP Up 11.9 Percent (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 14 23:39:06 2010, 美东)
【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: sanguo (小牛向前冲), 信区: Stock
标 题: China's GDP Up 11.9 Percent
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 14 23:38:31 2010, 美东)
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/04/14/business/AP-AS-China-Economy.html?
src=busln
SHANGHAI (AP) -- China's economic growth surged to 11.9 percent in the first
quarter but inflation was lower than expected, easing pr... 阅读全帖 |
|
c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 49 谢谢您的post. Very inspiring.
"1)MOBILE Internet TREND"
Definitely yes. 许多相关股票价格已经很高，我们应该再挖掘机会。
"2)REAR EARTH ELEMENT (REE) TREND"
这个与其它原材料一样，上周长势很猛。另一个原因是中国限制稀土出口. 中国限制稀
土出口目的是
进行提炼增加技术附加值而不是简单的卖矿土. 这个 sector 很小，但应重视。
有两个 risk 需要注意。
1. REE 储量不 rare，供需基本平衡，中国限制稀土出口影响有多大?
2. REE & MCP IPO 不久，liquidity 不好，不可大进。
"3)GOLD & SILVER TREND"
在 Fed 大量投放货币的情况下，hedge inflation 是热门。我没找到好的投资 GOLD &
SILVER方式。买 GOLD & SILVER 公司股票，波动太大，GOLD & SILVER ETFs 费用又太
高。
大家有什么好办法说说。
说到 inflation，农业股也是 hedge inflation 的好方法。近期... 阅读全帖 |
|
c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 50 Most Americans have not heard of Lang Lang, or his playing piano in White
House. But many--they are supporters of Pres. Obama; a majority of
Massachusetts voters are--are angry they know many of their friends and
relatives who are laid off and that China steals all those jobs (
manufacturing job, that is), by artificially lowering exchange rate of
China's and America's currencies. This is something Chinese need to address-
-urgently. (Fortunately for Taiwan, Americans do not even think of Taiwa... 阅读全帖 |
|
