x***3
发帖数: 15 | 1 Thanks!
let's continue this discussion... |
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 2 不要担心
抵制inflation最好的办法是投资在能够抵抗inflation而赚钱的企业
美国的基本利益就是美元这个标志，这个比暂时的经济萧条更重要
我的看法是现在的管理层不会让inflation发生的
金银是下策，金银只要是开采成本没有显著增加，政府想控制价格还是很容易的
【在 x***3 的大作中提到】
: Thanks!
: let's continue this discussion...
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 3 管理层是不想让inflation发生，而不是不会
就像管理层不想要recession, 结果呢
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 不要担心
: 抵制inflation最好的办法是投资在能够抵抗inflation而赚钱的企业
: 美国的基本利益就是美元这个标志，这个比暂时的经济萧条更重要
: 我的看法是现在的管理层不会让inflation发生的
: 金银是下策，金银只要是开采成本没有显著增加，政府想控制价格还是很容易的
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 4 金子银子是不是可以抵御inflation
我们可以看历史数据
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 管理层是不想让inflation发生，而不是不会
: 就像管理层不想要recession, 结果呢
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 Assume you believe there will be strong inflation in 2009. Then:
Gold, oil, corn, rice...
Yes.
Do your own research bah. Can't answer in less than 5 sentences...
See the assumption on top. The answers to 1) and 2) will be complete
different if the assumption is not valid.
【在 x***3 的大作中提到】
: Thanks!
: let's continue this discussion...
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 6 我确实不知道是否会有inflation发生
所以我不赌inflation会发生，我也不赌他不会发生
我相信这里没有人对此答案有确定的回答
就算inflation发生了，金银也不是什么好的对冲手段
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 管理层是不想让inflation发生，而不是不会
: 就像管理层不想要recession, 结果呢
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 7 if inflation, then what are good for对冲?
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 我确实不知道是否会有inflation发生
: 所以我不赌inflation会发生，我也不赌他不会发生
: 我相信这里没有人对此答案有确定的回答
: 就算inflation发生了，金银也不是什么好的对冲手段
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 8 买房子比买金子好，
套住了就住。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 我确实不知道是否会有inflation发生
: 所以我不赌inflation会发生，我也不赌他不会发生
: 我相信这里没有人对此答案有确定的回答
: 就算inflation发生了，金银也不是什么好的对冲手段
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 9 Buy Coke.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: if inflation, then what are good for对冲?
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 10 Coke is anti-inflation, i.e., its stock tends to rise if inflation rate is
low. I was a KO holder for some time.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Buy Coke.
|
|
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 11 很简单
怕inflation说白了就是怕物价涨
物价涨了的话
有的公司的盈利就跟着涨
比如巧克力涨价，巧克力公司的盈利就涨
石油涨价，石油公司的盈利就涨
当然机票是不会涨价的，航空公司也会一破再破的
【在 x***3 的大作中提到】
: Thanks!
: let's continue this discussion...
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 12 Right
怕inflation不就是怕可乐和巨无霸涨价吗？
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Coke is anti-inflation, i.e., its stock tends to rise if inflation rate is
: low. I was a KO holder for some time.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 13 Then why did you recommended buying Coke in inflation? @_@
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Right
: 怕inflation不就是怕可乐和巨无霸涨价吗？
|
h***z
发帖数: 233 | 14 TIPS or bond funds that invest heavily in TIPS. You can also try I-bonds
if you only plan to buy $5000 or less and will hold it for the long term.
Precious metals are another option for hedging inflation risks, but prices
for precious metals are fairly volatile and you will be exposing yourself to
potentially greater risks by purchasing precious metals.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: if inflation, then what are good for对冲?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 15 I mean to buy Coke to hedge inflation.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Then why did you recommended buying Coke in inflation? @_@
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 Buy KO stock or buy a bunch of coke bottles? I am quite confused, //blush...
Hedge inflation normally means hedge inflation risk bah (investors usually
hate inflation)? @_@
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I mean to buy Coke to hedge inflation.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 17 I vote for crude oil, since it dropped the most right now.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: if inflation, then what are good for对冲?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 18 Both are fine. I intentionally made it ambiguous. :)
But I prefer KO stock since Coke will someday expire, though the expiration
time of a can of Coke is much longer than most derivative securities. And if
there is no inflation, KO stock is not bad at all.
..
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Buy KO stock or buy a bunch of coke bottles? I am quite confused, //blush...
: Hedge inflation normally means hedge inflation risk bah (investors usually
: hate inflation)? @_@
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 19 I agree with you if you buy the bottled coke. But for KO stock, there
is a problem.
I originally bought KO to hedge inflation. I thought KO is a good stock
in high inflation. (My reasoning for that is quite irrelavent to cost
and sale price though.) But later I found out KO is actually anti-
inflation, i.e., it under-performs in high inflation. It turns out that
the cost to make coke is the major parameter in the analysis.
Therefore, in my opinion KO is not a good stock to buy, if one believes
i
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Both are fine. I intentionally made it ambiguous. :)
: But I prefer KO stock since Coke will someday expire, though the expiration
: time of a can of Coke is much longer than most derivative securities. And if
: there is no inflation, KO stock is not bad at all.
:
: ..
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 20 This can partially be seen from the attachment.
The shapes of DBA and KO is a little bit 反指 to each other. Of course,
later this year they both go down with DOW, making the 反指 effect
not so obvious to see.
DBA is a classic commodity ETF that's good to hold in inflation. Therefore,
I personally don't like KO in high inflation.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you if you buy the bottled coke. But for KO stock, there
: is a problem.
: I originally bought KO to hedge inflation. I thought KO is a good stock
: in high inflation. (My reasoning for that is quite irrelavent to cost
: and sale price though.) But later I found out KO is actually anti-
: inflation, i.e., it under-performs in high inflation. It turns out that
: the cost to make coke is the major parameter in the analysis.
: Therefore, in my opinion KO is not a good stock to buy, if one believes
: i
|
|
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 21 people would drink tap water, if no money
expiration
if
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Both are fine. I intentionally made it ambiguous. :)
: But I prefer KO stock since Coke will someday expire, though the expiration
: time of a can of Coke is much longer than most derivative securities. And if
: there is no inflation, KO stock is not bad at all.
:
: ..
|
M*******l
发帖数: 33 | 22 the new worry is deflation, not inflation
if u worry about inflation, better to long meterials or railroad
companies instead of buying gold
【在 x***3 的大作中提到】
: Thanks!
: let's continue this discussion...
|
s**********r
发帖数: 16 | 23 if it is defation, materials will be hurted badly.
【在 M*******l 的大作中提到】
: the new worry is deflation, not inflation
: if u worry about inflation, better to long meterials or railroad
: companies instead of buying gold
|
g****g
发帖数: 310 | 24 Gold的开采成本在增加，差不多要600$了，楼下搞commodity的人都知道。
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 管理层是不想让inflation发生，而不是不会
: 就像管理层不想要recession, 结果呢
|
z***c
发帖数: 102 | |
D******r
发帖数: 491 | 26 Published inflation rate is heavily manipulated by government, the core rate
excludes housing, health care, education, food and fuel.
【在 z***c 的大作中提到】
: 关于对抗inflation，买TIPS如何？
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 27 Look at 40 year result. Is KO share price better than gold? How about
dividend KO paid along the way?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you if you buy the bottled coke. But for KO stock, there
: is a problem.
: I originally bought KO to hedge inflation. I thought KO is a good stock
: in high inflation. (My reasoning for that is quite irrelavent to cost
: and sale price though.) But later I found out KO is actually anti-
: inflation, i.e., it under-performs in high inflation. It turns out that
: the cost to make coke is the major parameter in the analysis.
: Therefore, in my opinion KO is not a good stock to buy, if one believes
: i
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 28 你这么说就明显不懂矿的开采成本
不同的矿开采成本完全不同
比如石油,沙特的成本是2美元一桶
中国是17美元一桶
所以笼统地说一个600美元很不精确
【在 g****g 的大作中提到】
: Gold的开采成本在增加，差不多要600$了，楼下搞commodity的人都知道。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 29 In the long run gold is never a good thing to hold. But it's very good
in high inflation eras -- probably the hottest commodity.
There is no reason anyone should hold gold for 40 years. KO could be
a candidate to hold for another 40 years.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Look at 40 year result. Is KO share price better than gold? How about
: dividend KO paid along the way?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 30 Inflation is always a long term effect unless it's the case of Zimbabwe.
Will I put money in Zimbabwe's stock market at all?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: In the long run gold is never a good thing to hold. But it's very good
: in high inflation eras -- probably the hottest commodity.
: There is no reason anyone should hold gold for 40 years. KO could be
: a candidate to hold for another 40 years.
|
|
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 31 If you live in Zimbabwe, no, you shouldn't buy stocks (including
Zimbabwe Cola Company), but you may want to hold a few gold brick
in your basement.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Inflation is always a long term effect unless it's the case of Zimbabwe.
: Will I put money in Zimbabwe's stock market at all?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 32 Right. If I live in Zimbabwe I will hold gold bars. In the US, such dramatic
inflation is not likely to happen. So, I will only hold gold/silver at 2%
level and put rest of money into the market and other places.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: If you live in Zimbabwe, no, you shouldn't buy stocks (including
: Zimbabwe Cola Company), but you may want to hold a few gold brick
: in your basement.
|
x***3
发帖数: 15 | |
x***3
发帖数: 15 | |
d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 35 CPI and Core CPI doesn't exclude housing and health care. It is using owner'
s equivalent rent as measurement of housing cost change, which is the
biggest component of Core CPI or about 30%. It also includes measurement of
all out-of-pocket health care insurance/spendings. However, it excludes
employer-paid healthcare insurance. The reason is, CPI is a measure for cost
of living against disposable income. So it doesn't count the item not a
part of disposable income. This may be a little controve
【在 D******r 的大作中提到】
: Published inflation rate is heavily manipulated by government, the core rate
: excludes housing, health care, education, food and fuel.
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 36 你的"long-run＂还是不够"Long"．你只看到了正常情况，真正的＂Long run＂，基本
平均上是要每一两个寿命周期就要经历一次巨大的社会变动．比如中国，苏联的革命，
欧洲的战争，美国现在有一百多年没有伤筋动骨的战争了，（上一次是美国内战）．但
是这不代表美国今后不会有．
这种情况下，所有的股票基本全部清零．你想想，在你的有生之年，有５０％以上的概
率股票基本全部清零，你还会说：＂In the long run gold is never a good thing
to hold.＂？
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: In the long run gold is never a good thing to hold. But it's very good
: in high inflation eras -- probably the hottest commodity.
: There is no reason anyone should hold gold for 40 years. KO could be
: a candidate to hold for another 40 years.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 37 文革期间你有金子也被抄家抄掉
投资永远是在社会稳定法制健全的基础之上的上层建筑
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 你的"long-run＂还是不够"Long"．你只看到了正常情况，真正的＂Long run＂，基本
: 平均上是要每一两个寿命周期就要经历一次巨大的社会变动．比如中国，苏联的革命，
: 欧洲的战争，美国现在有一百多年没有伤筋动骨的战争了，（上一次是美国内战）．但
: 是这不代表美国今后不会有．
: 这种情况下，所有的股票基本全部清零．你想想，在你的有生之年，有５０％以上的概
: 率股票基本全部清零，你还会说：＂In the long run gold is never a good thing
: to hold.＂？
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 38 这个问题说明投资需要分散。
比如说，存在外国银行，就不会被抄家抄掉了
实物黄金是风险极高的，付出的储存成本太多了，不值得
２0年前工资１00元，买1g黄金
现在平均工资2000元，月工资可以买10多克
说明黄金并不是那么保值的，因为经济水平提高了
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 文革期间你有金子也被抄家抄掉
: 投资永远是在社会稳定法制健全的基础之上的上层建筑
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 39 I am curious about how you got that "50%" number. My estimate is much
less than that.
Anyway, if war happens, I have much more important things to worry about
than my money.
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 你的"long-run＂还是不够"Long"．你只看到了正常情况，真正的＂Long run＂，基本
: 平均上是要每一两个寿命周期就要经历一次巨大的社会变动．比如中国，苏联的革命，
: 欧洲的战争，美国现在有一百多年没有伤筋动骨的战争了，（上一次是美国内战）．但
: 是这不代表美国今后不会有．
: 这种情况下，所有的股票基本全部清零．你想想，在你的有生之年，有５０％以上的概
: 率股票基本全部清零，你还会说：＂In the long run gold is never a good thing
: to hold.＂？
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 40 这个就是我们所不可预料到的了．美国长期看来危机重重，尤其是劳模的突飞猛进．
在维多利亚时代，大英帝国，乃至整个欧洲可是社会稳定，法制健全，结果还不到２０
年，两次大战相继爆发了．
文革时候其实并没有饿死什么人，饿死人的是大跃进，当时据说很多人在黑市上用金子
换米吃．
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 文革期间你有金子也被抄家抄掉
: 投资永远是在社会稳定法制健全的基础之上的上层建筑
|
|
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 41 金子没用
那年头，宝贵的是粮票，有钱你买不到物资的
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 这个就是我们所不可预料到的了．美国长期看来危机重重，尤其是劳模的突飞猛进．
: 在维多利亚时代，大英帝国，乃至整个欧洲可是社会稳定，法制健全，结果还不到２０
: 年，两次大战相继爆发了．
: 文革时候其实并没有饿死什么人，饿死人的是大跃进，当时据说很多人在黑市上用金子
: 换米吃．
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 42 Just because it is 不可预料, I will ignore all such considerations.
I don't think that belongs to the scope of investment.
A more extreme example would be meteor impact (the thing that killed
dinasours). Will my money get wiped out? Yes. Will my life end? Very
likely. Will my gold still be there? Very likely. do I care? No.
It's not worth it to prepare for such situations. It's just simply not
worth the effort. I only have one life. I don't want to do some defense
for a whole life just to find out t
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 这个就是我们所不可预料到的了．美国长期看来危机重重，尤其是劳模的突飞猛进．
: 在维多利亚时代，大英帝国，乃至整个欧洲可是社会稳定，法制健全，结果还不到２０
: 年，两次大战相继爆发了．
: 文革时候其实并没有饿死什么人，饿死人的是大跃进，当时据说很多人在黑市上用金子
: 换米吃．
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 43 当年没钱买吃的快饿死了,也没法出国
海外账号就是狗屁
当你的生命安全都得不到保障的时候，谈投资有点奢侈
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 这个问题说明投资需要分散。
: 比如说，存在外国银行，就不会被抄家抄掉了
: 实物黄金是风险极高的，付出的储存成本太多了，不值得
: ２0年前工资１00元，买1g黄金
: 现在平均工资2000元，月工资可以买10多克
: 说明黄金并不是那么保值的，因为经济水平提高了
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 44 我没说文革饿死人，请看清楚
另外，如果未来10年内美国玩完的可能性是1%
而十几年后孩子上大学的可能性是80%
那么我们的主要精力是为了那80%的可能性去努力呢还是为了1%的可能性去努力呢?
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 这个就是我们所不可预料到的了．美国长期看来危机重重，尤其是劳模的突飞猛进．
: 在维多利亚时代，大英帝国，乃至整个欧洲可是社会稳定，法制健全，结果还不到２０
: 年，两次大战相继爆发了．
: 文革时候其实并没有饿死什么人，饿死人的是大跃进，当时据说很多人在黑市上用金子
: 换米吃．
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 45 虽然不可预料，但是有很大概率会发生，你能ignore么？
你的被陨石击中是个很差的类比，被陨石击中是个小概率事件
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Just because it is 不可预料, I will ignore all such considerations.
: I don't think that belongs to the scope of investment.
: A more extreme example would be meteor impact (the thing that killed
: dinasours). Will my money get wiped out? Yes. Will my life end? Very
: likely. Will my gold still be there? Very likely. do I care? No.
: It's not worth it to prepare for such situations. It's just simply not
: worth the effort. I only have one life. I don't want to do some defense
: for a whole life just to find out t
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 46 你小看黑市的作用了，
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 金子没用
: 那年头，宝贵的是粮票，有钱你买不到物资的
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 47 大跃进的时候，批斗并不厉害，抄家也不厉害，你的金子藏在家里被发现的可能性很小
．不知道你到底想说什么．
你孩子不上好大学，上公立大学的悲惨系数是１，而你被饿死的悲惨系数是１００，你
到底应该怎么办呢？
很显然，你必须拥有一些安全的财产，然后才能研究在正常情况下的投资．就好像红楼
梦里秦可卿给凤姐托梦的一样．
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 我没说文革饿死人，请看清楚
: 另外，如果未来10年内美国玩完的可能性是1%
: 而十几年后孩子上大学的可能性是80%
: 那么我们的主要精力是为了那80%的可能性去努力呢还是为了1%的可能性去努力呢?
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 48 My estimate of a war on the USA land is less than 5% before I reach
70. We have significantly different views. Maybe I am just too
optimistic.
No, the meteor, as long as it has an OK size, only needs to hit any
part of the earth surface to wipe out most of human kind. But again,
the chance of that is zero before I die.
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 虽然不可预料，但是有很大概率会发生，你能ignore么？
: 你的被陨石击中是个很差的类比，被陨石击中是个小概率事件
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 49 我啥时候说大跃进了？
另外，地震海啸什么的几率都挺大，美国每年开车死4万多人，中国死10万多人，那我
们就不开车了？
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 大跃进的时候，批斗并不厉害，抄家也不厉害，你的金子藏在家里被发现的可能性很小
: ．不知道你到底想说什么．
: 你孩子不上好大学，上公立大学的悲惨系数是１，而你被饿死的悲惨系数是１００，你
: 到底应该怎么办呢？
: 很显然，你必须拥有一些安全的财产，然后才能研究在正常情况下的投资．就好像红楼
: 梦里秦可卿给凤姐托梦的一样．
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 50 金子藏起来被发现的几率还是很大的，你可以自己去查查
连房子都抄走了，还有什么能剩的
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 大跃进的时候，批斗并不厉害，抄家也不厉害，你的金子藏在家里被发现的可能性很小
: ．不知道你到底想说什么．
: 你孩子不上好大学，上公立大学的悲惨系数是１，而你被饿死的悲惨系数是１００，你
: 到底应该怎么办呢？
: 很显然，你必须拥有一些安全的财产，然后才能研究在正常情况下的投资．就好像红楼
: 梦里秦可卿给凤姐托梦的一样．
|
|
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 51 My personal opinion is not to prepare for any contingency that has less
than "a certain level of chance" to happen before I am old enough to die,
if death is the consequence of the incident.
That "certain level of chance" is probably 0.1%-10%. I am not sure.
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 大跃进的时候，批斗并不厉害，抄家也不厉害，你的金子藏在家里被发现的可能性很小
: ．不知道你到底想说什么．
: 你孩子不上好大学，上公立大学的悲惨系数是１，而你被饿死的悲惨系数是１００，你
: 到底应该怎么办呢？
: 很显然，你必须拥有一些安全的财产，然后才能研究在正常情况下的投资．就好像红楼
: 梦里秦可卿给凤姐托梦的一样．
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 52 There is nothing wrong with your thinking. The only difference is you
tend to consider investment on a larger-than-life-span time frame --
unless you really think there is more than 50% chance your stock/bond
will become 0 before you die.
Just like the environmentalists saying sth like "Use alternative energy,
save your children". I never buy that. Why would I care about my children's
environment? I am selfish and the only thing I care is that using oil
now wouldn't cause any problem before I di
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 大跃进的时候，批斗并不厉害，抄家也不厉害，你的金子藏在家里被发现的可能性很小
: ．不知道你到底想说什么．
: 你孩子不上好大学，上公立大学的悲惨系数是１，而你被饿死的悲惨系数是１００，你
: 到底应该怎么办呢？
: 很显然，你必须拥有一些安全的财产，然后才能研究在正常情况下的投资．就好像红楼
: 梦里秦可卿给凤姐托梦的一样．
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 53 你既不是说大跃进，文革期间你有金子也被抄家抄掉又有什么了不起的，
搞金子的目的就是为了救命钱．你以为是干啥？
有生之年开车死掉的概率不过千分之一到百分之一之间．而有生之年发生战争或者其他
彻底崩盘的概率，根据历史统计，高达５０％左右，你的类比有意义么？
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 我啥时候说大跃进了？
: 另外，地震海啸什么的几率都挺大，美国每年开车死4万多人，中国死10万多人，那我
: 们就不开车了？
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 54 事实上如果根据历史统计，当然历史不能预测将来，有生之年Ｓｔｏｃｋ变成０的概率
高达５０％以上。
就算从１９００年开始算吧，有股票的地方大约有欧美日，中国的国民党的短期股市（
最后归零）就不算了，其他什么非洲，南美的也不算了，它们的更不稳定。这么多国家
中其中没有归零的只有英国和美国。有的国家甚至归零了好几次。英国其实也差点归零
了。
另外需要指出的是你对环境的认识是极为自私的。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: There is nothing wrong with your thinking. The only difference is you
: tend to consider investment on a larger-than-life-span time frame --
: unless you really think there is more than 50% chance your stock/bond
: will become 0 before you die.
: Just like the environmentalists saying sth like "Use alternative energy,
: save your children". I never buy that. Why would I care about my children's
: environment? I am selfish and the only thing I care is that using oil
: now wouldn't cause any problem before I di
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 55 你说得没错
金子是救命的，我在这个版以前说过
但是5%的舱位足够了
在这一点上房产和金子的重要性相若
然而房产的使用价值是金子无法比拟的
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 你既不是说大跃进，文革期间你有金子也被抄家抄掉又有什么了不起的，
: 搞金子的目的就是为了救命钱．你以为是干啥？
: 有生之年开车死掉的概率不过千分之一到百分之一之间．而有生之年发生战争或者其他
: 彻底崩盘的概率，根据历史统计，高达５０％左右，你的类比有意义么？
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 56 归零 is not the end of the market.
Most European stocks have come back to their tops later.
Again, I only see war and natural disaster as possible causes to wipe
out USA market. I just have trouble imagining those to be more than
50% chance in 30-50 years.
I am against environment because I am not rich enough not to be. My opion
towards why environmentalists have so much trouble persuading people has
always been "the human civilization hasn't reached a high enough level
for people to pay attention
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 事实上如果根据历史统计，当然历史不能预测将来，有生之年Ｓｔｏｃｋ变成０的概率
: 高达５０％以上。
: 就算从１９００年开始算吧，有股票的地方大约有欧美日，中国的国民党的短期股市（
: 最后归零）就不算了，其他什么非洲，南美的也不算了，它们的更不稳定。这么多国家
: 中其中没有归零的只有英国和美国。有的国家甚至归零了好几次。英国其实也差点归零
: 了。
: 另外需要指出的是你对环境的认识是极为自私的。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 57 问题是战争来了，你可以带走金子，却带不走房子阿，呵呵。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 你说得没错
: 金子是救命的，我在这个版以前说过
: 但是5%的舱位足够了
: 在这一点上房产和金子的重要性相若
: 然而房产的使用价值是金子无法比拟的
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 58 我只考虑未来10年内甚至2年内归零的几率，20年以后的事情我10年以后甚至18年以后
再开始考虑
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: 事实上如果根据历史统计，当然历史不能预测将来，有生之年Ｓｔｏｃｋ变成０的概率
: 高达５０％以上。
: 就算从１９００年开始算吧，有股票的地方大约有欧美日，中国的国民党的短期股市（
: 最后归零）就不算了，其他什么非洲，南美的也不算了，它们的更不稳定。这么多国家
: 中其中没有归零的只有英国和美国。有的国家甚至归零了好几次。英国其实也差点归零
: 了。
: 另外需要指出的是你对环境的认识是极为自私的。
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 59 是，所以要5%嘛
真正战争来的时候，我要是能在世界任何角落都能做个男体盛挣个零花，岂不更好？
所以投资自己是最好的办法
不过真正战争来了，小命儿丢了一切就都白搭了
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 问题是战争来了，你可以带走金子，却带不走房子阿，呵呵。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 60 男体盛? @_@
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 是，所以要5%嘛
: 真正战争来的时候，我要是能在世界任何角落都能做个男体盛挣个零花，岂不更好？
: 所以投资自己是最好的办法
: 不过真正战争来了，小命儿丢了一切就都白搭了
|
|
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y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 61 Most european stocks come back, but unfortunately all pre-war investor's
money were all gone. The new stock has nothing to do with the old ones. It
's just like the Stock in China now has nothing to do with the Shanghai
stocks in 1930s. Things can definitely happen faster than people's vision.
For the environment, unfortunately it's not completely reversible or take
very long time to reverse it. Your argument is ok if once people realize the
importance of the trees, then all the trees will com
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 归零 is not the end of the market.
: Most European stocks have come back to their tops later.
: Again, I only see war and natural disaster as possible causes to wipe
: out USA market. I just have trouble imagining those to be more than
: 50% chance in 30-50 years.
: I am against environment because I am not rich enough not to be. My opion
: towards why environmentalists have so much trouble persuading people has
: always been "the human civilization hasn't reached a high enough level
: for people to pay attention
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 62 I agree with your first paragraph. So the only conflict is the percentage
of chance estimate now.
The 2nd paragraph: for those things that will be gone forever, their
value has already been, or will be, reflected by their prices. Panda
maybe already costs 1 million a piece?
Global warming effect will be reflected in tree prices (and sth else
like gas taxes. I will only use tree prices to simplify my point).
Trees are still cheap these days, indicating global warming is a
non-issue (to the extent
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: Most european stocks come back, but unfortunately all pre-war investor's
: money were all gone. The new stock has nothing to do with the old ones. It
: 's just like the Stock in China now has nothing to do with the Shanghai
: stocks in 1930s. Things can definitely happen faster than people's vision.
: For the environment, unfortunately it's not completely reversible or take
: very long time to reverse it. Your argument is ok if once people realize the
: importance of the trees, then all the trees will com
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 63 You didn't get the point. True, it will eventually be reflected to the price
, but it will be too late. If something is not reversible, reflecting into
price means nothing. If some problem takes a very long time to reverse,
reflecting into price also means nothing. Panda was lucky. It didn't go
extinct. What about extinct animals such as sea cow or dodo bird? You can
put a price tag as 1 billion on them. But what's the point? Even if you
have 10000 billions, you can't buy a single live dodo b
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I agree with your first paragraph. So the only conflict is the percentage
: of chance estimate now.
: The 2nd paragraph: for those things that will be gone forever, their
: value has already been, or will be, reflected by their prices. Panda
: maybe already costs 1 million a piece?
: Global warming effect will be reflected in tree prices (and sth else
: like gas taxes. I will only use tree prices to simplify my point).
: Trees are still cheap these days, indicating global warming is a
: non-issue (to the extent
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 64 What you said is totally correct. However, to persuade down-to-earth
people like me to save the environment, it takes more than that.
The sea cow and dodo bird examples you showed: I've never heard of
them in my whole life, and I personally surely didn't do anything
to kill them... (I don't love animals in the sense of their meat or fur.)
With that said, if there is a panda in front of me, whose price tag
is $100, and there is an environmentalist standing beside it, claiming
"the price is totall
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: You didn't get the point. True, it will eventually be reflected to the price
: , but it will be too late. If something is not reversible, reflecting into
: price means nothing. If some problem takes a very long time to reverse,
: reflecting into price also means nothing. Panda was lucky. It didn't go
: extinct. What about extinct animals such as sea cow or dodo bird? You can
: put a price tag as 1 billion on them. But what's the point? Even if you
: have 10000 billions, you can't buy a single live dodo b
|
y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 65 You didn't care about sea cow and dodo bird is just because you haven't had
a chance to know them. For one thing, both are very delicious. And dodo bird
actually are slow, stupid and easy to raise (similar to turkey).
Another example that you probably have seen. The hybrid rice developed by
yuan longping is from some wild rice surviving in some wet-land in 海南. If
you destroyed the wet-land, there would be hybrid rice. In fact, yuan
longping was lucky according to the following news:
作为中国野生稻资源最丰
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: What you said is totally correct. However, to persuade down-to-earth
: people like me to save the environment, it takes more than that.
: The sea cow and dodo bird examples you showed: I've never heard of
: them in my whole life, and I personally surely didn't do anything
: to kill them... (I don't love animals in the sense of their meat or fur.)
: With that said, if there is a panda in front of me, whose price tag
: is $100, and there is an environmentalist standing beside it, claiming
: "the price is totall
|
h**********e
发帖数: 34 | 66 真热, 吐个泡, 凑个热闹.
-
有时候我顶不代表我也懂或同意楼主观点, 只是因为我受教了, 或我喜欢.
owner'
of
cost
not
housing
【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】
: CPI and Core CPI doesn't exclude housing and health care. It is using owner'
: s equivalent rent as measurement of housing cost change, which is the
: biggest component of Core CPI or about 30%. It also includes measurement of
: all out-of-pocket health care insurance/spendings. However, it excludes
: employer-paid healthcare insurance. The reason is, CPI is a measure for cost
: of living against disposable income. So it doesn't count the item not a
: part of disposable income. This may be a little controve
|
h**********e
发帖数: 34 | 67
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I agree with your first paragraph. So the only conflict is the percentage
: of chance estimate now.
: The 2nd paragraph: for those things that will be gone forever, their
: value has already been, or will be, reflected by their prices. Panda
: maybe already costs 1 million a piece?
: Global warming effect will be reflected in tree prices (and sth else
: like gas taxes. I will only use tree prices to simplify my point).
: Trees are still cheap these days, indicating global warming is a
: non-issue (to the extent
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 68 It's actually not totally selfishness. Have you noticed how future
civilizations are described in sci-fi movies? Star wars, Independence
Day, Men in Black, Matrix, etc., without exception future is described as
a chunk of concrete, either on land or in a spaceship. This tells us
that most people are still fasinated by that type of future. I personally
am totally fine living on Mars, if I can drive UFO to work and own 10
robots.
If we look back, many major inventions in several hundred years are
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】
: You didn't care about sea cow and dodo bird is just because you haven't had
: a chance to know them. For one thing, both are very delicious. And dodo bird
: actually are slow, stupid and easy to raise (similar to turkey).
: Another example that you probably have seen. The hybrid rice developed by
: yuan longping is from some wild rice surviving in some wet-land in 海南. If
: you destroyed the wet-land, there would be hybrid rice. In fact, yuan
: longping was lucky according to the following news:
: 作为中国野生稻资源最丰
|
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 69 赞长篇争论。
打酱由飘过。 吸吸
不过如果你扔足够多的灯在桌子上
即便制造不出嘟嘟袅来， 也能造出一个呼呼鸟来给你解闷儿。。
of course there are many things that are priceless.. 吸吸 |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 70 I personally agree more with KennyD, although I don't think I'll
be fine living on Mars even I can drive UFO, particularly at this
moment when I just came back from Caribbean :)
engergy
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It's actually not totally selfishness. Have you noticed how future
: civilizations are described in sci-fi movies? Star wars, Independence
: Day, Men in Black, Matrix, etc., without exception future is described as
: a chunk of concrete, either on land or in a spaceship. This tells us
: that most people are still fasinated by that type of future. I personally
: am totally fine living on Mars, if I can drive UFO to work and own 10
: robots.
: If we look back, many major inventions in several hundred years are
|
