j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 1 1)MOBILE Internet TREND
2)REAR EARTH ELEMENT TREND
3)GOLD & SILVER TREND
as long as market didn't crash, those 3 trend likely very good.
HOPE someone can do some FA on it.
I believe big money is being make of trading around big trend stock.
better trader can buy on dip , and sell on pop..
normal trader can hope and hold.
in 2010, even experience trader like me, lost on MOMO around stock,
especially subpenny or sub dollars..In fact, since SEPT 2009, I has very
little chance to win on subpenny, and quit for few month already. But google
's post wake up me up my memory of the fortune of JUNE to SEPT 2009, the era
of SUBPENNY going crazy, I will follow him for sometime coming forward, if
I lost, I will quit again.
Overall, I recommend average trader to do some FA on those 3 big trend
together, and make $$$ together..
people who think they are good trader or afford to lose can MOMO around
stock or follow google's sub penny pick, which is tough money, but need to
be small size and immediately quit if start losing more than 2% to 5% of
their account size.
personally, I have big size on REAR EARTH ELEMENT stock, REE & MCP, I will
keep trading around those
THANKS | M*****g
发帖数: 3145 | 2 thanks a lot for sharing. obviously you are very smart and confident, that's
the first totally worth to learn. | c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 3 谢谢您的post. Very inspiring.
"1)MOBILE Internet TREND"
Definitely yes. 许多相关股票价格已经很高，我们应该再挖掘机会。
"2)REAR EARTH ELEMENT (REE) TREND"
这个与其它原材料一样，上周长势很猛。另一个原因是中国限制稀土出口. 中国限制稀
土出口目的是
进行提炼增加技术附加值而不是简单的卖矿土. 这个 sector 很小，但应重视。
有两个 risk 需要注意。
1. REE 储量不 rare，供需基本平衡，中国限制稀土出口影响有多大?
2. REE & MCP IPO 不久，liquidity 不好，不可大进。
"3)GOLD & SILVER TREND"
在 Fed 大量投放货币的情况下，hedge inflation 是热门。我没找到好的投资 GOLD &
SILVER方式。买 GOLD & SILVER 公司股票，波动太大，GOLD & SILVER ETFs 费用又太
高。
大家有什么好办法说说。
说到 inflation，农业股也是 hedge inflation 的好方法。近期农业股大涨，有天灾
原因，也有hedge inflation的意愿。大家抓到没有？2009年7月回调，就是农业股先涨。这次会
不会也如此？
very
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: 1)MOBILE Internet TREND
: 2)REAR EARTH ELEMENT TREND
: 3)GOLD & SILVER TREND
: as long as market didn't crash, those 3 trend likely very good.
: HOPE someone can do some FA on it.
: I believe big money is being make of trading around big trend stock.
: better trader can buy on dip , and sell on pop..
: normal trader can hope and hold.
: in 2010, even experience trader like me, lost on MOMO around stock,
: especially subpenny or sub dollars..In fact, since SEPT 2009, I has very
| j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 4
this mobile internet, in 168, has some good FA, I like ARMH alot, can it be
INTC of mobile phone, someone know can say say.
NO SUPPLY and increasing demand for next 10year.
as china cut supply to 8000ton for 2nd HALF of this year, price already
increase 3X from early JULY.($16.9 to $44.83)
country outside of CHINA, need 60,000 TON per year, outside of china only
5000 total production. So, 8000 * 2 + 21,000 TON per year for country out of
china.
next 5year's supply, assume china unchange export quota.
SUPPLY 1)LYSCF.pk, start production in q3, 2011, total production: 22,000
TON
supply 2)MCP, full production in 2012, total production, 20,000 TON
DEMAND: according to alot of report I read so far. in 2015, will be rise to
200,000 TON to 250,000 TON per year.
current supply 21,000 TON(CHINA + current outside of china production) +
LYSCF(2011) + MCP(2012)=63,000(no other mine start production until 2015 or
later), but need total 100K to 125K TON to country outside of china, huge
supply shortage.
NOTICE: JPM give LYSCF a target price is A$0.91 when spot price is $16.9 on
late JUNE, now spot price is 44.83, or equal to LYSCF's new target price of
$4, when they will update target price again.
since MCP is same size of LYSCF, MCP should worth 80buck according to today'
s spot price.(notice this is a NON producer price target, if producer, then
target price should be at least 2X from $4)
if spot price continue to rise, then MCP & LYSCF, no questoin 10X from here.
but if economy falling apart, suddenly no demand of REE, then it will be
ugly..
but overall this is the best commodity we should look at now.RISK is if we
will see SPX 600 again next 2year.
GOLD and SILVER, I favor silver play, espcially those exploration stock.
silver top pick: SLW AXU, GOLD's top pick: BRD.
Overall, all 3 big trend, we should play, BUY on rumor, sell on NEWS
appraoch, until MOBILE marekt hit 40 to 50%, all those stock is BUY.
REE stock, until MCP's production out of ground, I think REE spot price only
go to higher, so those stock is buy.
gold & silver, usually their bull market last 17year, we are only 10th year,
so alot of silver & gold should able to 10X from few year later.
anyway, I just feel we should work as a group, focus on these TREND, instead
of MOMO around this and that, since most of MOMO trader is losing money,
except some high hand trader.
【在 c******e 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢您的post. Very inspiring.
: "1)MOBILE Internet TREND"
: Definitely yes. 许多相关股票价格已经很高，我们应该再挖掘机会。
: "2)REAR EARTH ELEMENT (REE) TREND"
: 这个与其它原材料一样，上周长势很猛。另一个原因是中国限制稀土出口. 中国限制稀
: 土出口目的是
: 进行提炼增加技术附加值而不是简单的卖矿土. 这个 sector 很小，但应重视。
: 有两个 risk 需要注意。
: 1. REE 储量不 rare，供需基本平衡，中国限制稀土出口影响有多大?
: 2. REE & MCP IPO 不久，liquidity 不好，不可大进。
| i****e
发帖数: 157 | 5 nice post!
One question: why choose BRD? Any particular reason?
it
be
already
only
out of
22,000
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
:
: this mobile internet, in 168, has some good FA, I like ARMH alot, can it be
: INTC of mobile phone, someone know can say say.
: NO SUPPLY and increasing demand for next 10year.
: as china cut supply to 8000ton for 2nd HALF of this year, price already
: increase 3X from early JULY.($16.9 to $44.83)
: country outside of CHINA, need 60,000 TON per year, outside of china only
: 5000 total production. So, 8000 * 2 + 21,000 TON per year for country out of
: china.
: next 5year's supply, assume china unchange export quota.
| j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 6 1)reduce leverage by payoff debt, better in balance sheet
2)production increasing
3)cash flow increase
4)undervalue due to high leverage & low grade, but start next Q, production
is back to normal, and reduce leverage.
5)compare to AZK(1billion) to BRD 180million(undervalue)
6)start 2013, increase production from 120,000ounce to 200K ounce, at total
cost $500 to $550, also HEDGE is off by 2013 as well, in 2011 & 2012, 50% of
production is hedge at 876buck per ounce.
at my calculatiion, assume GOLD price at at 1250 by 2013, BRD's cash flow is
$750 * 200K= 150million, usually mid tier producer trading at 10 to 20X
cash flow, lets assume BRD, trade at 12 cash flow, BRD will equal to 1.
8billion or 10X from today.
target 1.8 to 2.2 by year end as Q3 production number coming out, and 12 to
15buck by mid 2013..(ASSUME GOLD Price stay at 1250, but if GOLD price to go
to $2000 to $3000, which is likely to happen, look out a 20 to 30X er.)
again, risk is the spot price..
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: nice post!
: One question: why choose BRD? Any particular reason?
:
: it
: be
: already
: only
: out of
: 22,000
| a****g
发帖数: 8131 | 7 interesting perspective
be
already
of
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: 1)reduce leverage by payoff debt, better in balance sheet
: 2)production increasing
: 3)cash flow increase
: 4)undervalue due to high leverage & low grade, but start next Q, production
: is back to normal, and reduce leverage.
: 5)compare to AZK(1billion) to BRD 180million(undervalue)
: 6)start 2013, increase production from 120,000ounce to 200K ounce, at total
: cost $500 to $550, also HEDGE is off by 2013 as well, in 2011 & 2012, 50% of
: production is hedge at 876buck per ounce.
: at my calculatiion, assume GOLD price at at 1250 by 2013, BRD's cash flow is
| M*****g
发帖数: 3145 | | j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 9 update, spot price of REE is 50.52/KILO as today, LYSCF jump 17% in aus.
expect another big day for my REE stock on tuesday.
NOTICE, according to JPM analyst, every 17cent jump in SPOT price increase
result $38million NAV jump in LYSCF or MCP.
SPOT price jump 35.5buck since late JUNE. this is crazy...
35.5/0.17=208.82 * 38million=$7.9billion :D
in theory, MCP should jump 97.5buck since end of JUNE, and LYSCF should jump
4.77buck..
bottomline, this play is stock need to catch up fundamental of change of REE
spot price.
also, take in notice, cost to produce REE is 5.8/kilo +/- 10% or 5 to 6.5
range. few month ago, those producer set to just make only 5 to 7.
at today's spot price, they are make 45buck/KILO, profit almost 10X, while
most of REE stock only 2X since JUNE 2010...
also, please don't ZT my FA to other place, I only like to share with
pennystock club, where help me my TON of $$$ last year..
thanks.
【在 M*****g 的大作中提到】
: 很好的帖子。赞。
| i****e
发帖数: 157 | 10 Great!
BTW: where did you get the production data of LYSCF, I went to their
website and downloaded their Q2 report, but didn't see any production
predictions. Any links? Thanks.
aus.
increase
should jump
of REE
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: update, spot price of REE is 50.52/KILO as today, LYSCF jump 17% in aus.
: expect another big day for my REE stock on tuesday.
: NOTICE, according to JPM analyst, every 17cent jump in SPOT price increase
: result $38million NAV jump in LYSCF or MCP.
: SPOT price jump 35.5buck since late JUNE. this is crazy...
: 35.5/0.17=208.82 * 38million=$7.9billion :D
: in theory, MCP should jump 97.5buck since end of JUNE, and LYSCF should jump
: 4.77buck..
: bottomline, this play is stock need to catch up fundamental of change of REE
: spot price.
| | | c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 11 Jenny,
Very insightful. Would you please update news about Rare Earth Element news
regularly and those on gold but more in long term way? Thanks. | S*T
发帖数: 685 | 12 rear earth element 应用是啥方面
多谢帖子
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: 1)MOBILE Internet TREND
: 2)REAR EARTH ELEMENT TREND
: 3)GOLD & SILVER TREND
: as long as market didn't crash, those 3 trend likely very good.
: HOPE someone can do some FA on it.
: I believe big money is being make of trading around big trend stock.
: better trader can buy on dip , and sell on pop..
: normal trader can hope and hold.
: in 2010, even experience trader like me, lost on MOMO around stock,
: especially subpenny or sub dollars..In fact, since SEPT 2009, I has very
| j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 13 I take 60% off today, looks like the market is PEAK for next 45day.
【在 S*T 的大作中提到】
: rear earth element 应用是啥方面
: 多谢帖子
| S*T
发帖数: 685 | 14 PEAK for next 45day -- 这也太神了吧。555
我完全踏空了，在外边看大家数钱呢
为啥45days?
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: I take 60% off today, looks like the market is PEAK for next 45day.
| S******t
发帖数: 8388 | | S*T
发帖数: 685 | 16 稀土很牛啊，会不会像08年coal那样好多好多x?
【在 S******t 的大作中提到】
: very nice discussion.
| r*****g
发帖数: 7139 | 17 你每天都很早呀！哈哈！
【在 S*T 的大作中提到】
: 稀土很牛啊，会不会像08年coal那样好多好多x?
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | 18 昨天跟了MCP，可惜没抱住，能挣1000，可惜只挣500就出来了，看看今天还有没有机会
。 | S*T
发帖数: 685 | 19 en, i am online around 7:30 am
555
【在 r*****g 的大作中提到】
: 你每天都很早呀！哈哈！
| r*****g
发帖数: 7139 | 20 可以想象，你两眼冒着金星！
【在 S*T 的大作中提到】
: en, i am online around 7:30 am
: 555
|
|
