g**c
发帖数: 2339 | 1 Goldman Sachs strategists have issued a big warning to clients hiding out in
bond funds: You're about to lose your shirt.
The reason: interest rates began rising this week, and if they return to the
historical average yield of 3 percent, prices for long-term bonds will
plummet. (By their very nature, fixed income prices must fall if rates rise.)
"A reversion of risk premiums to historical averages of 6% nominal rates (3%
real rates and 3% inflation) would suggest estimated losses in portfolios
with bond durations of 5 years of 25% or more," equity strategist Robert D.
Boroujerdi said in a note.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury hit almost 2 percent this week–an 8-month
high–after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed several
members believe the central bank's quantitative easing should end this year.
(Read More: End of Stimulus? What's Behind the Fed's Surprise Statement)
Play Video
The Fiscal Drag & the Jobs Number
How all the furry over the "fiscal cliff" impacted the U.S. economy and the
December jobs number, with Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist.
That's one giant bond buyer leaving the market.
Instead of bonds, Goldman suggests investors look to equities for income.
That's because companies have plenty of cash to pay out on their books,
mutual fund flows are set to pick up for stocks and equity valuations
relative to bonds are very attractive. They list a number of "income-through
-equity" plays.
"Companies that return cash to shareholders in the form of dividends or
accretive buybacks should outperform, in our view," wrote the Goldman team.
Specifically, Bristol-Myers, Lorillard, Verizon, and Duke Energy are
highlighted by Goldman because they have ample cash flow to comfortably pay
their existing debt and then increase their dividend. The stocks also will
appreciate by at least 5 percent over the next 12 months according to
Goldman individual company analysts.
Despite Goldman's call and the big move in yields this week, some investors
believe low inflation and a slow-moving Fed chief will keep real rates (
nominal yield plus inflation) in favorable territory for bonds.
In fact, Goldman's own economist, Jan Hatzius, told CNBC Friday he expects
quantitative easing to continue well into 2014. (Read More: Bond Buying Will
Go On for Long Time: Hatzius)
"My expectation is QE is still going to run for a long time through 2013,
even 2014 at a reduced pace," Hatzius said in a"Squawk on the Street"
interview. "That obviously is only going to become clear over time and it's
going to depend on the economic data."
Hatzius isn't alone, either.
"It's a long journey to the higher yields many speculate on," said Tony
Crescenzi, market strategist for PIMCO, the largest bond manager in the
world. "Real interest rates today are deeply negative and the high level of
unemployment limits inflation risk. Moreover, with the U.S. population aging
, investors will prefer to stay high in the capital structure, especially
with the memory of two shocks in a decade."
For the best market insight, catch "Fast Money" each night at 5 p.m. ET, and
the "Halftime Report" each afternoon at 12 noon ET on CNBC. Follow @
CNBCMelloy on Twitter. | s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 2 how come 3%, 6% ?!
美国政府债台高筑， 要是回到3%，日子就难过了。 要是回到6%， 那就直接default
了。 西班牙和意大利闹了那么久， 不就是6%吗。
in
the
rise.)
3%
.
month
【在 g**c 的大作中提到】
: Goldman Sachs strategists have issued a big warning to clients hiding out in
: bond funds: You're about to lose your shirt.
: The reason: interest rates began rising this week, and if they return to the
: historical average yield of 3 percent, prices for long-term bonds will
: plummet. (By their very nature, fixed income prices must fall if rates rise.)
: "A reversion of risk premiums to historical averages of 6% nominal rates (3%
: real rates and 3% inflation) would suggest estimated losses in portfolios
: with bond durations of 5 years of 25% or more," equity strategist Robert D.
: Boroujerdi said in a note.
: The yield on the 10-year Treasury hit almost 2 percent this week–an 8-month
|
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