N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 1
Deleveraging always overshoots its fair price, which is what happens
when the asset gets bubbled up too much.
Government intervention doesn't really stop deleveraging b/c it only
makes it as if stable when measured in Dollar. If you measure it in
gold which is true money that cannot be depreciated, it still deflates.
What government does is depreciating the current and then spreading the
pain onto responsible people. |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 2 not the fund PRPFX, but the actual portfolio proposed by Harry Browne.
It's such a simple, but unintuitive, but again excellent idea.
the allocation goes like this:
25% gold: economic and political turbulence, unexpected inflation
25% LT treasury bond: deflation, flight to quality
25% cash: recession, expected inflation
25% stocks: prosperity
gold, LT t-bond, cash are all considered bad long term investment ideas,
but together in this portfolio they work beautifully. It will never
get you super |
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h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 3 but, with that cash, u have to buy sth to prevent inflation.
nomatter inflation or deflation, u have to bet on sth to get rich.
doing nothing will just let u be an avg joe for ever.
the
even
need |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 4 if you can buy house with cash sale right now, but you are afread of
inflation, and borrow the money to buy the house. this is not good too. 1.
not sure if there will be inflation, maybe deflation. 2. what do you do with
your large amount of cash in hnad. investing in stock is too risky now,
saving in money market account gives you too low interet while you pay much
higher mortgage rate.
I think the right way to put money in TIPS or I-bond to get protection from
inflation, then when there comes |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 5 Inflation/deflation and appreciation/depreciation are two different things.
One is about how much you can buy inside the country per currency unit, the
other is about how much you can exchange for other currencies outside the
country. They are related, but definitely totally different. |
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j********1
发帖数: 628 | 6 according to wsj today, Fed still has internal debate as to whether imminent
danger is deflation or inflation.
don't expect it to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. and stock has
another leg to go. |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 7 Put the current rate into a historic perspective is not a good way to
compare the seriousness of the bond market. I agree the current rate is
lower (4%) than the historic norm 5.48% for 10 year treasury bonds. But you
have to remember that growth rate and more importantly inflation rate are
very high in 70-80-90s. Inflation was close to or above 10% in 80s. We have
very low growth rate and low inflation and possible deflation environment.
So the spread between the rate and inflation is actually |
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a***r
发帖数: 146 | 8 Inflation or deflation, this is a certainly a million dollar question.
The Wall Street is trying to force ECB to do what the Fed did more than a
year ago - printing money, lots of them, but ECB refused yesterday. The
market tanked today. As the debt crisis spreads wider and deeper across the
Europe, sooner or later ECB will be forced to print lots of money to buy
government bonds.
If ECB does not print lots of money, the Fed may hesitate to print more
money. However once ECB does, I bet the Fed |
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N******r
发帖数: 642 | 9 John Murphy has an excellent book abt intermarket movements in a technical
point of view.
http://tinyurl.com/2wvgcrg
fundamentally, everything boils down to the argument of deflation and
inflation at different stages. |
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j****h
发帖数: 219 | 10 看来 Deflation 要成为现实了，我看了 “THOUGHTS ON THE END GAME”和 "THIS
TIME IS DIFFERENT"后，今年开始投入的 VUSTX 现在也受益 10%了。
问题是：要不要增加投资？ |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 11 or EDV if you want more leverage for deflation protection. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 EU prevents PIGS from printing money and the last G20 has basically decided
to go deflation. Yes, it's bad there. But we will see Euro getting stronger
from here against dollars. That's how market reacts and it tells you why
gold will continue its uptrend aginst dollars if Ben keeps printing.
Euro may fail eventurally due to disintegration of Euro land，but it is
another story.
not
truly |
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X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 13 Deflation of currency discourages capital investing. More importantly,
A stable store of value prevents the society from being more productive
collectively -- because people would be exploited less if they don't
fear their money would lose value. And such society inevitably either
adopted the better way -- fiat money -- or perished. It seems that you
never understand that all these concepts, be it 'currency', 'value',
or 'private property', are collectively invented, or more precisely,
evolved, |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 14 ... for now anyway.
David Cameron’s new Government in Britain announced Tuesday that it will
introduce austerity measures to begin paying down the estimated one trillion
(U.S. value) in debts held by the British Government. Lets let that sink in
for a moment, for it is a stunning announcement.
Now repeat it: Britain will introduce austerity measures in order to
eliminate the deficit and begin paying down the national debt. And that
being said, we have just received the signal to an end to globa |
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c*******o
发帖数: 1722 | 15 if Europe decides to go to this route, it will be a real bad news.
trillion
in
have |
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j**********e
发帖数: 442 | 16 The Third Depression
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: June 27, 2010
The New York Times
Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there
were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “
depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that
followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed
the financial crisis of 1929-31.
Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of
the 20th was an e |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 17 it's just as likely that we heading into a long deflation period (a la
japonaise) as hyperstagflation.
what do we know? |
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 18 i think the drop in the long term yield has more to do with the anticipated
fed's announcement (which is confirmed today) of buying the treasury than
investors hedging against deflation. so personally, i don't see how the
equity and debt markets are out of sync.
the bond market is indeed bigger, much bigger, than the stock market, but i
question that there exists more professional investors there compared to the
stock market.
to be more precise, the bond market realistically has two markets, the |
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S***l
发帖数: 383 | 19 I remember you always call for hyperinflation here, why suddently deflation
now? Read some online ariticle last night that changed your mind?
China bought record number of Japan bonds recently. Yen is all time high
from 1987. And you are calling Japan either default or print??? |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 20
deflation
I didn't change at all as print = inflate & print too much = hyperinflate.
And yes, Japan will have to either default or print. All paper currencies
are doomed to fail as politicians just cannot keep their hands off the
printing press. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 21
Just about every hyperinflation started from a debt induced deflation.
Government then fought it with some printing and some more until the
currency eventually failed and sent it right snap into a hyperinflation. |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 22 what gold hedges here is instability and sign of inflation, not deflation.
a short term chart from april means absolutely nothing. gold has been
historically little correlated with stock market, which is beautiful and one
of the main reasons i hold gold. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 23 why only gold was signaling inflation and all the others are fighting
deflation? gold must be in another world, lol
you can ignore the trend that gold is becoming a safe heaven due to people's
fear of a stock market crash. we will see how things evolve.
one |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 24 from the interest of a saver and creditor like you and me, should they print
more greenback? hell no!
from the interest of the US government, should they print money? absolutely
! why not?
being deeply affected by your emotion and political belives, tho, can not be
good for your investment. at least make sure that you understand the terms
inflation/deflation before acusing politicians. they may be doing the right
thing for their nation. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 25
Increasing money supply <==> inflation. Just because price falling in the
undesired, overpriced and oversupplied garbage assets aka real estates
doesn't meant it's a deflation. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 26 gold is never a hedge against inflation
it's mainly a hedge against the possible failure of paper money
and together with cash paper money (when paper money is still in use), it's
actually a hedge against deflation because gold is the real money.
if one only worry about inflation, silver, oil and grains are better places
to be.
attract |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 27 I agree with all that. I am just pointing out that there are other
theories (e.g. deflation, where Japan tried hard but didn't escape) and
other possibilities that maximizing borrowing may not be the optimal
investment strategy. |
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l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 28 Why TIPS carries more interest rate risk than regular TSY?
I'm thinking of buying TIPS as a long term insurance plan for unexpected
hyperinflation in the long run. It is not necessary that inflation always
moves with intereste rate, is it?
I agree with you that TIPS is essentially TSY. However I would think that it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
BTW, I'm not 100% sure but I think TIPS principle won't be adjusted down in the case of deflation, right?
they |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 29 you need to google "hyperinflation" to see what it really is
dont just assume it is a "ultra high inflation"
it is a totally different animal
it is better complematary to an equity dominated portfolio.
in the case of deflation, right? |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 30 Because the way TIPS are structured, the terminal payment is increased
throughout the life of the security (OK, assuming CPI-U is always positive),
which ensures TIPS will have greater duration than traditional treasuries
of equal maturity, thus more sensitive to interest rate changes.
TIPS is a better diversifier, yes, but I will only be interested in it if
the real rate is above 2%, preferably 3%.
Prior to maturity, the accrued principal of a TIPS can go below the face
value.
it is better com... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 31 gold silver ratio
if you would hold your base metals, hold them tight during the coming
deflation
storm |
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 32 you sure deflation is coming ? |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 33 gold is running harder than silver and copper is falling like a rock
deflation is giving signals, it's already on the horizon
I am doing the opposite
gold is getting stronger than other metals
looking at GSR
it has come down a long way from 70+ to 36 in a little bit more than one
year
it is due for a correction imo |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 34 inflation in necessary commodities while deflation in wages
is exactly what you are going to get |
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S******1
发帖数: 1831 | 35 这个解释还make sense，但是目前还远没这么糟糕，美国要到那一步就没必要待下去了
，而中国经济也相应垮了，全世界都日子不好过，无所谓inflation还是deflation了。 |
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n****u
发帖数: 229 | 36 I heard the recent silver crush is "hit job" by JP Morgan since JP short
silver.
Silver is riskier than gold, but I don't think there's deflation since Feds
always print money.
I still believe inflation is on its way along with dollar crash. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 37 sell of across the board
if this is not deflation pressure, tell me what is. |
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n****u
发帖数: 229 | 38
Fed keep printing the money, why is there a deflation? Can you explain this?
I mean gas price is up,higher than 1 year ago, food price is up too. People
purchase gold and silver to protect their
asset because of fear of inflation. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 39 I don't understand how we can get deflation when the Fed is printing
money like crazy and deficit is bigger than ever.
resistance. |
|
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 41 rising food/energy without wage increase
this sounds stagflation to me
long bond may have a dead cat bounce
but its destination has been determined, that's zero
gold in physical form has the least risk
inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation
it will perform well in all these conditions
resistance. |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 42 gold will suffer during deflation, right? |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 43 under usual deflation
yes, gold will go down, cash would be the best
but gold will go down less than other commodities and stocks |
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T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 44 bond是对付deflation的， gold也就是在inflation时好使，其他时候不行。80-90s年代
都是死水一潭。
另外长期来看，gold也并不能增值。你如果在80-90年代买gold就瞎菜了 |
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 45 I agree, deflation is unlikely. inflation is kind of
possible but still waiting for the wage raise to trigger
the up trend. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 46 your post that was deleted did not give any reasoning or discussion
about why you think commodity will fall
If I remember correctly you just accused the op being yy in your post
I posted a month ago in a thread why I think a deflation wave is coming
and commodity especially base metals will fall. the post is still there |
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l*****7
发帖数: 153 | 47 And also, I see their points on solving the problem of double transaction
and securing anonymity. But they don't really ensure bitcoin has the
quality
to be a currency, that is, what would be the global effect and trend if
using bitcoin. There are online articles indicating that bitcoin has
built-
in deflation. http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-
a-good-idea
I am not a finance or econ major. I think people should consider seriously
before making an investment.
But still, ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****7
发帖数: 153 | 48 And also, I see their points on solving the problem of double transaction
and securing anonymity. But they don't really ensure bitcoin has the
quality
to be a currency, that is, what would be the global effect and trend if
using bitcoin. There are online articles indicating that bitcoin has
built-
in deflation. http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-
a-good-idea
I am not a finance or econ major. I think people should consider seriously
before making an investment.
But still, ... 阅读全帖 |
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 49 not true.
If someone got stocks in 2009 and made a big return,
can you say Stock has real return with no (or little) risk?
TIPS has its risk, like interest rate risk, deflation.
It just happened to be a couple good years for TIPS. It doesn't mean TIPS ha
s no or little risk. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 50 We are talking about positive real return and no risk. Individual TIPS, not
TIPS fund, when hold to maturity, will have positive real return, regardless
interest change and deflation. Saving bond are even better.
ha |
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