e****g
发帖数: 469 | 1 He has a point.
Right now, it is a choice between deflation and hyperinflation. My
personal take is deflation. But Jim apparently is opted for
hyperinflation. That also explains why he has been bullish on
commodities.
Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
and
Jones |
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: Stock
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之三） (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov 14 20:58:04 2009, 美东)
【 以下文字转载自 MacroInvesting 俱乐部 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: MacroInvesting
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之三）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 4 03:42:15 2009, 美东)
Quantitative Easing and Monetization of Debt
利息已经降到0，钞票印得还是不够，价格还是在跌，还是在通缩，怎么办？
这就是普林斯顿大学经济学系主任Benjamin Shalom Bernanke教授一生研究的课题了。
据说研究deflation的重要论文基本上全是他写的。他曾经通俗地解释说，deflation其
实并不可怕，大不了我们坐在helicopter上往下扔钞票，终归是能够解决的。所以江湖
上人送外号Helicopte |
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 3 I thought so at first. but it's getting more amazing the more I thought
about it.
PRPFX sort of inherit the idea with the following allocation
20% gold
5% silver
10% swiss franc
15% natural resource + REIT
15% growth stocks
35% dollar, including both long term bond and short term bills
It emphasis more towards inflation protection over deflation.
yeah right, helicopter Ben knows how to get over deflation anyway..
but when it happens, e.g. second half 2008, the 4x25 portfolio
certainly did better |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4 The threat to the US dollar is hyperinflation, not deflation
by James Turk, Founder of GoldMoney.com
Copyright © 2010 by James Turk. All rights reserved.
In the early 1930’s, the US dollar money supply as measured by M3 dropped
by approximately 30%. This deflation, i.e., drop in the quantity of money,
was one of the steepest in history. The purchasing power of the dollar –
until 1933 redeemable into gold and thereafter redeemable into silver –
rose dramatically because less money was in c |
|
t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 5 stagflation已经够狠的了,还hyperstagflation,会亡国的.
我去年在等10%,那时候中国经济出口下滑,我断它没钱买美国债了,这样30年的利率该涨
了,谁知道,今年初又好起来了,又来买美债,所以我就把北京的房子卖了,在美国买一个.
月初,美国没把中国列为汇率操纵国,我盼望已久的贸易大战也没打起来,离10%又远了.
最近美军搞黄海军演,中国又在卖国债,好象有戏,但另外,中国贸易顺差又大了,这钱我
估计还得买美债. 可又有消息说中国在买日债,和西班牙的欧债,有德国莫克耳背书. 所
以我打算观察几个月,看看到低怎么走. 因为,这个因果关系我还没看透,是因为中国不
买美债买日/欧债了,所以美国才军演? 还是因为美国军演,所以中国才不买美债买日/欧
债?
如果是前者,那会引发全球美债大抛售,那么10%就不远了. 如果是后者,过两月中国还得
增加美债,这说明共军仍然盼定美国长期走不出deflation.
由于现在中国是美国未来的决定性力量(现在若引发美债大抛售,则彻底改变美国今后的
经济状态,是deflation还是hyperinflation),所以我还得跟党走. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 6 deflation pressure formed in 4 days?
It just dropped back to the level about one month ago. Does that
mean the inflation/deflation pressure is same as one month ago? |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 7 dont treat the market with a "either black or white" attitude
Fed has been playing a very dangerous game. inflation and deflation are
competing in the market and one would be dominant only for a certain period.
The commodity rise since last June is fueld by QE1 because these money needs
some time to run into the market.
We have not seen the effect of QE2 yet. It will come after the deflation
ruled summer. Debt in Europe is rising from the horizon. When it bursts, all
liquidity will evaporate qui... 阅读全帖 |
|
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 9 相对来说， Bernanke现在的无穷QE是更可能导致1929年那样大萧条的诱因。
历史上的投机失败的前例比比皆是， 美国历史上就有3，4次， 所以次贷危机的爆发，
可能也就是短期1-2年的short shock. 倒闭一批过渡投机的银行， 重组资产， 因为
实体经济的生产力都在， 只是资金链的问题， 恢复起来也非常快。
但是过渡QE造成了相对生产力的过渡信贷， 货币信用降低， 资本过渡集中， 贫富分
化加剧，这些都是1929年大萧条的前兆。
Bernanke口口声声说deflation是经济最大的敌人， 但是他无节制的过渡QE, 使得未来
的经济政策在生产恢复， 信贷秩序恢复以后的调节空间非常的小。 假设美国在排除
inflation以后的GDP恢复到2-3%的正常水平的时候， 04-06年， 联邦储备利率是3%左
右。 以现在0.25%的rate升上去， 会是多大的一个potential的deflation? 而且QE这
么多轮， 通胀压力已经非常的高。 到时候3%恐怕远远不能遏制通胀， 82年的
hyperinflation的可能非常的大。
， |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 10 to get higher return in longer time frame
one has to try to time the market,
otherwise, just stay with index for an average return
get in small caps of commodity stocks when inflation is running its course
and get out when deflation comes back.
have locked in most of my profit back in April and May by switching those
stocks positions to gold and cash.
I have a few posts at that time on the board warning of a deflation wave
coming. Guess not many people cared. lol |
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 11 hahah, I did not recall that was you. It is a good way to dig out.
Deflation.. You are really KIDDING me. Inflation might not be the immediate
concern but it is FAR FAR away from deflation.
It is really nothing to be proud of by getting 20% or 30% in a shot time in
3m or 6m. It really depends on how much RISK you take to get that return. I
have better return than that but I don't think it is risk justified (
remember sharp ratio?). I could had done better with the risk I took. In
that sense, I... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 I am not here showing off anything or trying to compete with anybody
just try to share what I learned
if deflation was not the dominant force in the market during the summer
I don't know what to say about it.
inflation will come, eventually, maybe hyperinflation. But that does not
rule out some periods when deflation runs its course in the market.
immediate
in
I |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 13 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: kafen (Tiffany & Co), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 好像开始可怕的通缩螺旋了，FXI GLD都是验证
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Dec 12 18:04:29 2011, 美东)
deflation has been running its course the whole summer and fall
you got to get in front of the curve instead of lagging behind it
http://www.mitbbs.com/mitbbs_article.php?board=Investment&id=31
in fact, I think this deflation wave is coming to its end
As early as this month, as late as Feb/March, the market will be
entering a strong inflation wave
copper:gol... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 14 Fed has shown how they can handle such a situation
I am with you that we might see another wave of strong deflation before
Ben leading the charge to get us the inflation spike
things happen more and more quickly toward its end in an exponential world
so it does not have to take too long for all of these unfolding
anyway, gold is the best bet, it fights both inflation and deflation. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 15 Common suspects, such as asset bubbles, unexpected inflation, and Big Ben
being right that is US economy will do well in the next couple of years. And
more importantly, flattered yield may not simply come from a rising short
term interest rate.
Given central banks have nothing to show in terms of battling deflation, and
Fed are rightfully worrying about deflation rather than inflation since the
crisis, what make you think the yield curve would steepen from here.
up? |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 16 10%利率是不可能的，现在是deflation，全球生产过剩。和白宫担不担保没有关系，日
本deflation都20年了，也没见印钱会inflation，关键是大家都在还债，有钱就
deleverage而不是去开工投资。
这个话题去年我就和版上某人辩过，现在她都躲起来不说了。
这个房市价格10年内是不会反弹的，除非是低价short sale，foreclosure，死人了，
离婚了，进的。否则买房就看现金流是不是正的，回报率高就可以买，回报率低就说明
房子还要跌。 |
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t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 17 15,16楼说的大都对,我的判断是:
1,今后几年是deflation没跑了,前提是FED不再印钱,如果还印,那么就不好说了,有可能
还是deflation,也有可能直接hyper-inflation,或stagflation.我估计Stagflation的
机会大,就是除了房价和工资不涨全都涨.
2,现在大家都在deleverage,而且会持续一段时间,等不deleverage了,基本就复苏了,关
键是什么时候结束. NYPD说"多印钞票，扩大投资,刺激消费，正是政府想要作的事情",
这个不太对,现在的数据说公司(非银行)手里有大量CASH,但没有投资的意向.多印钱无
法扩大投资,银行不放贷,企业也不借贷.也无法刺激消费,除非再搞那个cash for
clunkers.FED印钱自己开公司雇人的可能性不大,直接投资也不大.所以我不知道除了等
大家deleverage结束,还有没有其他的办法?
3,现在不是生产过剩,是货币紧缩. 由于物价上涨,失业和资金链断裂(如不能用房子抵
押当ATM了),美国人消费的少了,$ value没少,是量少了. 所以表现出来象是生产过剩,
而从实际来看,生 |
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l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 18 有很多的讨论呀，长期肯定是inflation, 但1-2年之内，到底是inflation还是
deflation, 还是有很多争论的。Fed虽然印了
很多钱，但这些钱大多都没有进入流通。从日本的经验来看，QE结束之后所带来的是
deflation；现在commodities疯长主
要是由于中国因素，但国内限制经济国热的力度很大，比起人民币升值的预期，调控所
带来的负面影响更大。
commodities这种泡沫吹起来容易，破起来更快。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 19
Huh? If you have to spend 40% rather than 20% of income on food after RMB
appreciation, you now have 20% less to finance the mortgage / credit card
payment and other consumption. How does that make people "更加肆无忌惮"?
Deflation is one of the most positive things that can ever happen to an
economy. It breaks the bubbles so that you can CONSUME MORE on the same
amount of money. It's the fools & losers already paying into the bubble
price that hate deflation and want government to fight it for them. |
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b***y
发帖数: 374 | 20 Jul 29 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/24 457K 450K 464K 468K
464K
Jul 29 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/17 4565K 4550K 4550K
4484K 4487K
Jul 29 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Jul - - - - -
Jul 30 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 - NA NA 1.1% -
Jul 30 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q2 - 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% -
Jul 30 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 - 0.7% 1.1% 1.1%
-
Jul 30 8:30 AM Em |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 21 I heard Cash is the King in deflation.
I heard Cash is the King in deflation.
faces |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 22
Asset price is set by supply & demand. When you oversupply real estate,
you are bound to have price falling. That's simply science. If you were
fooled by the bubble and overpaid for a house, you unfortunately have to
suffer a loss when price adjusts itself based on supply and demand.
Fed's fighting deflation with money printing doesn't prevent a deflation
in real purchasing power. All it achieves is to socialize the loss from
the irresponsible fools onto the innocent savers. |
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a********h
发帖数: 819 | 23 yes, and I bought SLW and AXU last week, LOL.
the deflation talk has been all over the place, headlines, ordinary joes
it may be close to the max.
though gold is still safer which have benefits both ways (inflation/
deflation)
silver may get better and better from here |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 24 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said U.S. unemployment may take
five years to fall to a normal level and that Fed purchases of Treasury
securities beyond the $600 billion announced last month are possible.
“At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back
to a more normal unemployment rate” of about 5 percent to 6 percent,
Bernanke said according to the transcript of an interview to air today on
CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program.
The purchase of more bonds than pl... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 25 1. Soros said that he bought gold in the last couple years to hedge
deflation.
I dont think many people understant what he said. Gold is indeed a hedge
against deflation.
2. Base on what you said, gold is certainly not in a bubble as many people
claimed. Or we can say SP500 is in a bigger bubble than gold is. So gold
should continue outperforming SP500 for a while.
3. gold is more like an insurance protecting you from fiat currency failure.
Part of gold holdings need to be liquidated when time i... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 26 In the 1980s, nobody could imagine a mortgage rate below 10%. In the 1990s,
nobody could imagine a mortgage rate below 7%. In the 2000s, nobody could
imagine a mortgage rate below 5%. Yet here we are, in 2011… and mortgage
rates have spent the last month in the 4.5% range.
As long as I can remember, the trend in interest rates has been down. This
chart shows the trend clearly…
Could mortgage rates go any lower? Of course.
How?
Japan's experience shows us how…
In the late 1980s in Japan, asset pr... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 27 This week marks the paper dollar's 150th birthday. In 1861, the U.S.
government introduced paper notes (the first "greenbacks") to help finance
the Civil War.
We'd argue the dollar died shortly thereafter… in 1933. After the Great
Depression, the economy was facing severe deflation. The easiest way out of
deflation is printing money. So Congress and President Roosevelt suspended
the gold standard, banned private ownership of gold bullion, and printed
away. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 28 The key to sound money: limited in supply and infinite divisibility.
Limited in supply ensures that you cannot counterfeit the money out of
thin air. You want it you have to earn it.
Infinite divisibility makes sure you have enough supply of money as long
as you allow deflation to generate that supply.
ID and deflation together provide legitimate money supply b/c it's like
stock split. Printing FIAT is a fraud b/c it's like stock dilution.
Commodity-based money is the closest thing you can get t... 阅读全帖 |
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j*******a
发帖数: 5283 | 29 不是产品贬值，是因为黄金供给不过而以黄金计价的数值下降。
你那黑白电视的例子不是deflation!
不过你真的要问“Why fight the deflation?”咱就不奉陪了。回答这个问题的人太多
了。 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 30 gold is not only driven by money printing
if fact, if inflation is running its course, we should see silver flying
we might experience a strong deflation wave, which will drive gold
through the roof as gold is the money all other assests to deflate to |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 31 deflation is good, it's a way of cleaning the bubbles
depression
after these "disastrous deflation" you named, US still grew into the
#1 economic power instead of going Zimbabwe. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 32 deflation has been running its course the whole summer and fall
you got to get in front of the curve instead of lagging behind it
http://www.mitbbs.com/mitbbs_article.php?board=Investment&id=31
in fact, I think this deflation wave is coming to its end
As early as this month, as late as Feb/March, the market will be
entering a strong inflation wave
copper:gold ratio has been building a solid base since August, signaling
a reverse of the trend. We just need to wait silver, a smaller market,
to com... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********y
发帖数: 2050 | 33 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:17:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
http://www.datanx.org/nxinfo001/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=4498
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ericz (eric) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:20:12 2011, 美东) 提到:
求宅要
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
YUYN (丫丫) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:21:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
自己懒，好好读
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
slimcan (独孤九剑) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:24:54 2011, 美东) 提到:
今天的美国绝对不会是70年代的美国了。第一，利率现在已经是0了。第二，当年bab... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 34 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120320-712102.html
--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defends country's break with gold
standard
--Gold standard can cause both inflations and deflations, Bernanke says
--Practical, policy problems with gold standard
(Updated first paragraph, adds political context in the second paragraph and
comments on China in the seventh and eighth paragraphs and his response to
a student in the 11th and 12th paragraphs.)
By Kristina Peterson
Of DOW JONES NEWS... 阅读全帖 |
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l********a
发帖数: 3384 | 35 现在都担心deflation了.
Deflation is a rising risk for the economic outlook based on import and
export price data where contraction is at its most severe since the 2008-
2009 recession. |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 36 October 22, 2015 — 12:25 AM CDTUpdated on October 22, 2015 — 4:55 AM CDT
General Views Of Shanghai As China's Lingering Deflation Risks Offer Room
For More Easing
square before the information
China’s leaders are poised to announce a 2020 deadline to dismantle
currency controls that have kept the world’s second-largest economy from
fully integrating with global financial markets.
At a gathering next week, top officials in the Communist Party will discuss
pledging to “make the yuan convertible un... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 37 Markets | Wed Dec 9, 2015 2:32pm EST
Biggest 2016 risk may be the one just behind us: oil
------------------
The biggest financial risk in 2016 may be the one that's been on stage all
year.
Financial markets have been living with the consequences of the energy
deflation since mid-2014, and the fallout has been pervasive. The idea of
another shock of that magnitude is unnerving to say the least.
More than a trillion dollars of market capitalization has been wiped off oil
stocks worldwide.
Almost ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********n
发帖数: 13256 | 38 可肉鸽说利润受食品deflation影响，特娃也说利润受药物deflation影响，医保公司的
medical spending ratio也降低了不少。尼玛，到底inflation在哪里？ |
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p**********8
发帖数: 1709 | 39 对inflatable 船感兴趣，主要携带方便。
看了三款，大家有用过的没有，评价如何？请大家提提意见。
一，Sea Eagle 9
This lightweight, affordable inflatable fishing boat holds up to 4 people,
is super stable, and works great with small gas or electric motors.
http://www.seaeagle.com/MotorMountBoats.aspx?hullID=SE9#OrderAr
Exterior: 11' x 4' 8"
Weight: 38 lbs. (hull only), 56 lbs. (w/ floorboards & motormount)
Capacity: 4 Adults or 1200 lbs.
Engine Capacity: 3 hp gas (45 lbs. max weight) or up to 74 lb. thrust
electric
Inter... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******e
发帖数: 6436 | 40 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
perchman2008 (perchman2008) 于 (Mon Mar 18 00:37:13 2013, 美东) 提到:
对inflatable 船感兴趣，主要携带方便。
看了三款，大家有用过的没有，评价如何？请大家提提意见。
一，Sea Eagle 9
This lightweight, affordable inflatable fishing boat holds up to 4 people,
is super stable, and works great with small gas or electric motors.
http://www.seaeagle.com/MotorMountBoats.aspx?hullID=SE9#OrderAr
Exterior: 11' x 4' 8"
Weight: 38 lbs. (hull only), 56 lbs. (w/ floorboards & motormount)
Capacity: ... 阅读全帖 |
|
d**********9
发帖数: 5215 | 41 你没看清楚rw3的论点，不是说这个deflated的球有什么好处，只是说预先知道这个球
是deflated总比那个被蒙在鼓里的要好吧。 |
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E*****c
发帖数: 47 | 42 你现在要讲逻辑，first eat up and clean all these shits...
"You can thank D’Qwell Jackson for sparking Deflate-gate."-NBC
"Jackson noticed the ball felt deflated and mentioned something to the team
’s equipment manager, who brought up the subject to Colts head coach Chuck
Pagano. Pagano told the team’s GM Ryan Grigson, who called the league."-
Larry Brown
"D'Qwell Jackson, of the Indianapolis Colts, intercepted a pass before the
end of the first half of the AFC Championship game against the New England
P... 阅读全帖 |
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h****e
发帖数: 292 | 43 http://sports.yahoo.com/news/physicist-emailed-us-explain-exact
摘要：
“In a just world, you the media, would be apologizing or get sued for
everything you own. This was obviously done with malicious intent.
Unfortunately, one of the more unjust aspects of press freedom is that the
media is shielded from being sued by public figures. That leaves the media
free, except by their own restraint, to lie, sensationalize, and slander. ”
---------------------------------------------------------------------... 阅读全帖 |
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R*2
发帖数: 1631 | 44 有好多，这是其中一条，pdf格式剪切粘贴格式太乱了，等等我找好玩的。
In addition to the messages described above, before the start of the 2014-15
season, McNally referred to himself as “the deflator” and stated that he
was “not going to espn……..yet.” On May 9, 2014, McNally and Jastremski
exchanged the following text messages:
McNally: You working
Jastremski: Yup
McNally: Nice dude....jimmy needs some kicks....lets make a deal.....come on
help the deflator
McNally: Chill buddy im just fuckin with you ....im not going to
espn....... 阅读全帖 |
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y****q
发帖数: 94 | 45 这个Report最被人称道的是McNally自称“deflator”，可是这个短信是5/9/14发的，
根本不是赛季。
美国人开玩笑是最平常不过的事。
On May 9, 2014, during the NFL offseason, McNally and Jastremski exchanged
the following text messages:
Date and Time Sender Recipient Message
05/09/2014
16:37:16 EDT
Bird46
(603) 321-xxxx
John Jastremski
(508) 958-xxxx
You working
05/09/2014
16:37:53 EDT
John Jastremski
(508) 958-xxxx
Bird
(603) 321-xxxx
Yup
05/09/2014
16:39:40 EDT
Bird
(603) 321-xxxx
John Jastremski
(508) 958-xxxx
Nice dude....jimmy needs some kicks...... 阅读全帖 |
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t******g
发帖数: 1936 | 46 Patriots’ legacy deflating compared to the 49ers’ glory years
Posted on May 11, 2015 at 4:58 am by Kevin Lynch in 49ers
EmailPrintShare on Facebook12
The 49ers cheated during their dynastic run. Then owner Eddie DeBartolo
constantly flouted the NFL rules with his financial expenditures. But
somehow that felt more charming than devious. How can you fault an owner who
breaks the rules by spending TOO much on his team? How many sports teams
would love to have that problem.
The 49ers also did ple... 阅读全帖 |
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h*********r
发帖数: 10182 | 47 All the emails from Brady are dumped, none is related to deflating.
All texts except 3 to ball boy and equipment are verified in others
cellphones, none is related to deflating football.
Imo, Brady has a very good shot |
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v***t
发帖数: 27100 | 48 He should deflate the ball.
A deflated ball can not go beyond 50 yards. |
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s***k
发帖数: 2754 | 49 ESPN记者半决赛后就道歉了（聪明人）：
http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls14/story/_/id/12122932
Dear Commissioner Delany:
Hope you had a happy holiday season. It certainly looks like your New Year
is off to a rousing start.
Look, I'm in kind of an uncomfortable position here, having to write
something I've never written before -- a letter of apology. It seems I
inserted my size-11 foot into my mouth back in mid-August. My wife and kids
(as well as many -- OK, most -- of my readers) say it happens all the t... 阅读全帖 |
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o*****e
发帖数: 379 | 50 我觉得如果你出事前是中性浮力，regulator出来的时候往外吐气，本来就是会上升的。
而上升一旦开始，如果不deflate，那会越升越快的...
我印象里是这样，我每次上来之前都要deflate，来控制上升速度的... |
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