c******n
发帖数: 16403 | |
N******r
发帖数: 642 | 2 won't last long. its nothing but volatility. |
c******n
发帖数: 16403 | 3 俺觉得半年内会逐步回落， 然后秋天开始再涨。 俺就一点点的炒短线看看。 反正只投
了一小批
【在 N******r 的大作中提到】
: won't last long. its nothing but volatility.
|
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 4 35刀，便宜的很啊。要是想砸到30刀-，一定要有很大的勇气和决心。
【在 N******r 的大作中提到】
: won't last long. its nothing but volatility.
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 5 In 130 ASE over the weekend. If it drops to 30 I'll buy more. :-)
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 35刀，便宜的很啊。要是想砸到30刀-，一定要有很大的勇气和决心。
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 6 I will short it if it goes to mid- $40's.
Longs of gold/silver are ultimate shorts of world economy.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: In 130 ASE over the weekend. If it drops to 30 I'll buy more. :-)
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 7 You got that exactly right. I'm ultimately shorting the world economy,
and I've been doing it for more than three years.
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: I will short it if it goes to mid- $40's.
: Longs of gold/silver are ultimate shorts of world economy.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 8 Yes, the world economy is a short right now.
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: I will short it if it goes to mid- $40's.
: Longs of gold/silver are ultimate shorts of world economy.
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 9 Long PM is shorting world economy?
When/If economy fall back into recession, the treasuries will remain to be
the (temp) safe harbor, every and all assets priced in USD will fall. So no,
long PM is NOT shorting world economy, it is shorting Fiat money in general
and USD in particular.
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: I will short it if it goes to mid- $40's.
: Longs of gold/silver are ultimate shorts of world economy.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 10 in pure recession, USD will do the best
in stagflation when food and energy stay high and industrial materials
falling,
gold will shine the best after food and energy themselves
I think we are heading into stagflation, a big one
no,
general
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Long PM is shorting world economy?
: When/If economy fall back into recession, the treasuries will remain to be
: the (temp) safe harbor, every and all assets priced in USD will fall. So no,
: long PM is NOT shorting world economy, it is shorting Fiat money in general
: and USD in particular.
|
|
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 11 as of today, stagflation is less likely than deflation. gas and food are
not enough to push wages up. deflation is a path with much less resistance.
either way it implies world instability therefore gold is in good shape.
that's why it's doing great recently. silver is very poor for deflation,
tho. to hedge against that doom senario, nothing is better than long term
treasury.
so a split between gold/silver/LT is a good package for your non-stock
portfolio. or simply cash is not bad choice. |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 12 I don't understand how we can get deflation when the Fed is printing
money like crazy and deficit is bigger than ever.
resistance.
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: as of today, stagflation is less likely than deflation. gas and food are
: not enough to push wages up. deflation is a path with much less resistance.
: either way it implies world instability therefore gold is in good shape.
: that's why it's doing great recently. silver is very poor for deflation,
: tho. to hedge against that doom senario, nothing is better than long term
: treasury.
: so a split between gold/silver/LT is a good package for your non-stock
: portfolio. or simply cash is not bad choice.
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 13 you mean deflation?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: I don't understand how we can get deflation when the Fed is printing
: money like crazy and deficit is bigger than ever.
:
: resistance.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 14 rising food/energy without wage increase
this sounds stagflation to me
long bond may have a dead cat bounce
but its destination has been determined, that's zero
gold in physical form has the least risk
inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation
it will perform well in all these conditions
resistance.
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: as of today, stagflation is less likely than deflation. gas and food are
: not enough to push wages up. deflation is a path with much less resistance.
: either way it implies world instability therefore gold is in good shape.
: that's why it's doing great recently. silver is very poor for deflation,
: tho. to hedge against that doom senario, nothing is better than long term
: treasury.
: so a split between gold/silver/LT is a good package for your non-stock
: portfolio. or simply cash is not bad choice.
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 15 gold will suffer during deflation, right?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: rising food/energy without wage increase
: this sounds stagflation to me
: long bond may have a dead cat bounce
: but its destination has been determined, that's zero
: gold in physical form has the least risk
: inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation
: it will perform well in all these conditions
:
: resistance.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 16 under usual deflation
yes, gold will go down, cash would be the best
but gold will go down less than other commodities and stocks
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: gold will suffer during deflation, right?
|
T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 17 bond是对付deflation的， gold也就是在inflation时好使，其他时候不行。80-90s年代
都是死水一潭。
另外长期来看，gold也并不能增值。你如果在80-90年代买gold就瞎菜了
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: rising food/energy without wage increase
: this sounds stagflation to me
: long bond may have a dead cat bounce
: but its destination has been determined, that's zero
: gold in physical form has the least risk
: inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation
: it will perform well in all these conditions
:
: resistance.
|
w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 18 I agree, deflation is unlikely. inflation is kind of
possible but still waiting for the wage raise to trigger
the up trend.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: I don't understand how we can get deflation when the Fed is printing
: money like crazy and deficit is bigger than ever.
:
: resistance.
|
w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 19 我看目前市场对gold好像slightly overvalue,可能panic premium，大家都被2007-200
8的crisis吓坏了。
年代
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】
: bond是对付deflation的， gold也就是在inflation时好使，其他时候不行。80-90s年代
: 都是死水一潭。
: 另外长期来看，gold也并不能增值。你如果在80-90年代买gold就瞎菜了
|
T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 20 slightly这个词用得不好吧，否则就是market noise了。
总的来说，金子作为一般等价物，可以兑换固定量的实物；有一个标准是一套质地不错
的西服，领带和裤子，200年前1oz金子可以买这些，现在的也基本上可以买到，所以还
不算overvalue,真正overvalue要到$2000以上，以下都应该在震荡区间
200
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: 我看目前市场对gold好像slightly overvalue,可能panic premium，大家都被2007-200
: 8的crisis吓坏了。
:
: 年代
|
|
|
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 21 seriously I think gold will hit 3000 sooner or later this big cyclce
Actually I feel I am very conservative
I expect to exchange some of my gold at 3000+ to US treasury when its rate i
s pretty high so I can pay my mortgage with treasury interests down the way.
Believe it will happen
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】
: slightly这个词用得不好吧，否则就是market noise了。
: 总的来说，金子作为一般等价物，可以兑换固定量的实物；有一个标准是一套质地不错
: 的西服，领带和裤子，200年前1oz金子可以买这些，现在的也基本上可以买到，所以还
: 不算overvalue,真正overvalue要到$2000以上，以下都应该在震荡区间
:
: 200
|
w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 22 slightly只是用来表达我对gold overprice的程度的描述，
也可以把它换成 "a little bit"， 这里没有market noise的意思。
不过我不同意你对金子value的标准，这种等价实物，完全忽略了
生产效率，科技发展对实物价值的影响。
200年前， 你1oz金子可以买到一台电脑吗？ 现在呢，
电脑可能那时候没有， 那你1oz能买到几个鸡蛋，到现在呢？
即使是西装领带裤子， 名牌和不名牌差别太大， 也不好比。
况其，生产1oz黄金的成本200年前后差别很大， 所以很难用等价实物来衡量。
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】
: slightly这个词用得不好吧，否则就是market noise了。
: 总的来说，金子作为一般等价物，可以兑换固定量的实物；有一个标准是一套质地不错
: 的西服，领带和裤子，200年前1oz金子可以买这些，现在的也基本上可以买到，所以还
: 不算overvalue,真正overvalue要到$2000以上，以下都应该在震荡区间
:
: 200
|
T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 23
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~黄金不是普通商品，它的价值不是
生产成本来衡量的，否则不是和铜铁锡一样的东西了吗？所谓等价实物，用fancy的语
言来说就是扣除物价上涨后的实际购买力。金子本身的价值是不变的，不能升值的。
历史上金子升值的阶段都是其他货币不稳，政局动荡的时期。其他时候金子的实际购买
力基本没有变化。
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: slightly只是用来表达我对gold overprice的程度的描述，
: 也可以把它换成 "a little bit"， 这里没有market noise的意思。
: 不过我不同意你对金子value的标准，这种等价实物，完全忽略了
: 生产效率，科技发展对实物价值的影响。
: 200年前， 你1oz金子可以买到一台电脑吗？ 现在呢，
: 电脑可能那时候没有， 那你1oz能买到几个鸡蛋，到现在呢？
: 即使是西装领带裤子， 名牌和不名牌差别太大， 也不好比。
: 况其，生产1oz黄金的成本200年前后差别很大， 所以很难用等价实物来衡量。
|
j**s
发帖数: 1028 | 24 How about rental homes? If rent covers mortgage.
resistance.
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: as of today, stagflation is less likely than deflation. gas and food are
: not enough to push wages up. deflation is a path with much less resistance.
: either way it implies world instability therefore gold is in good shape.
: that's why it's doing great recently. silver is very poor for deflation,
: tho. to hedge against that doom senario, nothing is better than long term
: treasury.
: so a split between gold/silver/LT is a good package for your non-stock
: portfolio. or simply cash is not bad choice.
|
n****u
发帖数: 229 | 25
假设三十年前你在底特律买了房子，想着出租，收来的房租能cover mortgage。
但是你也知道现在这城市经济垮了，没人租你的房子，而且你都没法卖掉房子，你说怎
么办？
房子这东西流动性差，你想卖房子就立马能卖出去？
而且这玩意就讲究location location location。
你能保证自己能选中一个好的location五十年不变？
我觉得投资买房，买一个就差不多。多了的话风险大，还不如买实物黄金。
Just my 2 cents
【在 j**s 的大作中提到】
: How about rental homes? If rent covers mortgage.
:
: resistance.
|
