s*******2
发帖数: 21 | 1 bond正朝着double dip大踏步前进，stock market似乎还存有希望啊。
一般这种情况谁更准？ |
m*h
发帖数: 85 | 2 bond market is bigger than stock market
bond market is mostly professional investors.
but future can't be predicted, even by professional investors.
【在 s*******2 的大作中提到】
: bond正朝着double dip大踏步前进，stock market似乎还存有希望啊。
: 一般这种情况谁更准？
|
c*v
发帖数: 93 | 3 Bond investors are pessimists; stock investors are optimists. |
s*******2
发帖数: 21 | 4 all good points.
【在 m*h 的大作中提到】
: bond market is bigger than stock market
: bond market is mostly professional investors.
: but future can't be predicted, even by professional investors.
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 5 come on, look at the living board,
look at the refinance rate,
bond is double dip?
【在 s*******2 的大作中提到】
: bond正朝着double dip大踏步前进，stock market似乎还存有希望啊。
: 一般这种情况谁更准？
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 6 in deflationary settings, bond rateleads stock market.
are we in a deflationary setting? i tend to believe so, but what do i know
. |
s********h
发帖数: 158 | 7 i think the drop in the long term yield has more to do with the anticipated
fed's announcement (which is confirmed today) of buying the treasury than
investors hedging against deflation. so personally, i don't see how the
equity and debt markets are out of sync.
the bond market is indeed bigger, much bigger, than the stock market, but i
question that there exists more professional investors there compared to the
stock market.
to be more precise, the bond market realistically has two markets, the |
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 8 美国债市30几个trillion$，日交易量800billion$
美国股市没算上衍生品也30几个trillion$，日交易量至少100billion$
按市场大小算，债市股市一般大。按交易量算，由于债券周期短，所以交易量大。炒债
的并不比炒股的强，但是债券价值估算起来的误差比股价的误差小很多。炒债的也不一
定比炒股的悲观。股市不涨债市涨完全符合停滞的经济。 |
S***l
发帖数: 383 | 9 bond is a straight line up for the past couple decades, where is the first
dip???
【在 s*******2 的大作中提到】
: bond正朝着double dip大踏步前进，stock market似乎还存有希望啊。
: 一般这种情况谁更准？
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 10 According to Wilshire Associates, the total U.S. market cap is approximately
$15.35 trillion as of May 23, 2007. I will be surprised if it grows over
the two years rather than shrinks.
【在 a****t 的大作中提到】
: 美国债市30几个trillion$，日交易量800billion$
: 美国股市没算上衍生品也30几个trillion$，日交易量至少100billion$
: 按市场大小算，债市股市一般大。按交易量算，由于债券周期短，所以交易量大。炒债
: 的并不比炒股的强，但是债券价值估算起来的误差比股价的误差小很多。炒债的也不一
: 定比炒股的悲观。股市不涨债市涨完全符合停滞的经济。
|
s*******2
发帖数: 21 | 11 en. 我是说double dip recession。不是bond price
【在 S***l 的大作中提到】
: bond is a straight line up for the past couple decades, where is the first
: dip???
|
k***a
发帖数: 1104 | 12 bond 在dip? bond 在涨， double 涨。 价格和yield 成反比。
【在 s*******2 的大作中提到】
: bond正朝着double dip大踏步前进，stock market似乎还存有希望啊。
: 一般这种情况谁更准？
|
p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 13 Bond market is priced in about 30-40% probability of double dip recession.
Stock market still hangs there around 1100 (S&P).
So stock market is more optimistic than bond market. but sadly, bond market
predicated the past several recessions correctly before any sign reflected
in the stock market.
A little concerned about spread tightening in bond market now. when treasury
is priced razor thin yield, it's hard to imagine an effective QE to rescue
the market again if double dip indeed happens.
【在 k***a 的大作中提到】
: bond 在dip? bond 在涨， double 涨。 价格和yield 成反比。
|
