k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 1 确实是虚拟币，但有一定的区别，主要就是不能乱发，有21M的cap。
而其有built in perpetual deflation，造成价值一路升高。
小打小闹那是肯定的，不过它有其特定的市场。随着接受的人越来
越多，形成其小型economy是没问题的。中国数十万的gold farmer挖
WoW金币卖钱，就因为WoW里面金币可以换点虚拟装备。呵呵，就算
mit的伪币也有价值啊，虽然mit伪币乱发，不过也可以换美刀啊。 |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 2 true
US debt has passed the point of coming back
it will be on an accelerated path to default, one way or another
so gold, physical only, will rally hard, deflation or hyperinflation |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 3 nice
thanks for sharing these thoughts
I do agree with you that crude oil could rally hard, maybe shortly
gold has its cycle high early next year, mainly driven by deflation pressure
after, inflation pressure should carry gold further for a few more years
but it will be silver that shine better in that cycle
I am not sure about the time line of 2020 though, it's too far for me
financial, is anyway a dead meat
性还可以。不过其他问题还是有的，你看到国债信心出现问题时你就要小心了，但是应
该有足够时间你取得利润退出的。
下降到了那时候是最低谷。美国财政压力危机最深的时候，市场一定会... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 4 finally when gold game is out of control, we will see the fall like that in 80s.
it's very easy to beat gold's speculation by deflation, and as long as the sam is
willing to do so , it's easy for him. |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 5 that's true.
现在的经济环境的主要矛盾， 就是1%过于容易的剥削欠发达地区的人工和资源
然而已发达地区的99%的收入跟不上产品扩张的速度。
所以在经济表观上， 基本生活资料， 物价越来越高。 高档/高科技消费品， 价格越
来越低。 也就是老百姓面临的inflation vs. Ben's deflation.
造成99%生活负担越来越重， 但是企业层面利润越来越薄， 只有少数国际性， 品牌型
的大corp靠新增海外市场实现扩张。 |
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s*****e
发帖数: 21415 | 6 今年这点算啥deflation，in for the long term根本不用care |
|
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p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 8 通胀 in china is not curable right now.
降准 seems an signal that CCP will save "housing" first. RMB deflation is
the sacrifice CCP is going to commit for the sake of "housing bubble".
what can u do? the ruling people are stupid, they still want to protect
their "properties". |
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s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 9 some sectors inflaton, some sectors deflation. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 10 an earthquake (deflation) and a volcano eruption (inflation)
are taking place simultanously under the sea level.
From surface obsevation, they offset each other and people see the quiet
scene
and enjoy this peaceful moment before the storm comes.
this may not be the best example I can give, but you could get my point. |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 11 I don't get doomsday people. Yes, dollar will eventually crash, just like
all currency does. But the question is when...because remember all human
dies as well. It doesn't matter if it happens when we are all dead.
According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, 20 percent
failed through hyperinflation, 21 percent were destroyed by war, 12 percent
destroyed by independence, 24 percent were monetarily reformed, and 23
percent are still in circulation approaching one of the other ou... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 dollar made a higher high but stock made a higher low
copper:gold and CRB:gold even rose/spiked
I think this is the final puke of this round of deflation wave
now it's time for inflation to kick ass |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 13 the foundamentals you sais are always there
the question is when the tide turns
there is just no straight line in the market
people have to engage some other exercises to time when the market turns
the debt crisis is certainly not over, neither is the deflation force
but I think Ben is doing what he said he would do
t
major |
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a***r
发帖数: 146 | 14 2012 markets: Expect ups and downs
BY Jurrien Timmer, Co-Manager of Fidelity® Global Strategies Fund,
Fidelity Viewpoints — 12/21/11
Consider U.S. stocks, high-yield corporate, and floating-rate high-income
bonds.
It’s been quite a year, one of violent mood swings but little overall
direction. We seem to be in a time warp where everything happens faster and
faster. Everything seems to be correlated. There are very few places to hide
, and even those places don’t feel like good options anymor... 阅读全帖 |
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r***e
发帖数: 2539 | 15 ibond在deflation的时候，会变成负利率吗，还是最低是零利率？ |
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z****7
发帖数: 880 | 16 I bond 利息不会是负的,最低为0
Can I ever lose money in I Bonds?
No. They are U.S. Treasury securities backed by the U.S. Government. I Bonds
even protect you from the effects of severe deflation—the earnings rate
can't go below zero and the redemption value of your I Bonds can't decline.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res |
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m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 17 copper price indicates there might be deflation ahead, so the collapse of
gold price is not surprising. |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 18 Would you tell us what is the driver that will drive the short term rate up?
Of course there is always possibility. In 2006, Fed jacked the short term
interest rate up to 5%, hoping to cool down overheating economy.
Fed will act to increase the short term rate either to suppress high
inflation or to discourage lending. However,for now, Fed is worrying about
deflation and wants to encourage lending. I see no catalyst to see the
yield reversal. But yielding widening is quite likely. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 19 While I am light on bond for several years now and especially light on US
treasury, but for the sake of counter-argument that interest will rise soon,
without checking, can you tell me the spread between US 10-year and Irish
10-year? Yes that Irish as in the PIIGS, the answer is 0.03%. Can you
believe it? Adding the recently unexpected very low yoy CPI reading in China
, the world may still falls victim of deflation. |
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m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 20 I am worried about the yield as well,
deflation? Japan? very strange indeed,
do |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 21 Yes, interest rate is now so low that it has to start going up at some point
. When that happens, treasury bonds are going to fall like a rock. They have
to... but wait... aren't Japan and Europe already in negative interests
territory? Why are we so sure that US won't follow suit? The whole point of
hedging is you don't really know what will happen. Treasury bonds are so
volatile and could move in the opposite direction vs. stocks (i.e., during
deflation), which makes them a good candidate for ... 阅读全帖 |
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s****a
发帖数: 195 | 22 现在几乎没通胀，只有deflation了。最安全而且流通性又最强的只有短期saving。 |
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v**t
发帖数: 91 | 23 也是，the Recovery act authorized 787billions over 2009-2012...基本上解决就
业，当时大环境还是deflating。
但是现在好像不一样了，unemployment is low, minimum wages are creeping up..... |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 24 In 2010, the relative worth of $200,000.00 from 1945 is:
$2,420,000.00 using the Consumer Price Index
$2,000,000.00 using the GDP deflator
$4,130,000.00 using the unskilled wage
$4,990,000.00 using the Production Worker Compensation
$5,880,000.00 using the nominal GDP per capita
$13,000,000.00 using the relative share of GDP |
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t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 25 你说的都对,就是我说的,FED已经竭尽全力想造出通货膨胀,但失败ing,参考下面文章,
所以说deflation是避免不了的. 如果再印钱,有三种结果,我倾向stagflation,说过的.
Bernanke's Scorecard
Here is Bernanke’s roadmap, and a “point-by-point” list from that speech.
1. Reduce nominal interest rate to zero. Check. That didn’t work...
2. Increase the number of dollars in circulation, or credibly threaten to do
so. Check. That didn’t work...
3. Expand the scale of asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of
assets it buys. Check & check. That didn’t work...
4. Make lo |
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w*******q
发帖数: 1764 | 26
经济发展导致各种asset升值是不可避免的，是一定回发生的，现在北京上海当然涨的
很过分了，但是随着其他地方的发
展，那些地方的房价只可能往上涨，我假设楼主的房子不在一线诚实，如果在一线城市
，现在美国房产市场还不明确的情
况下进来还是有很大风险的，比起在北京上海，美国要是真的进入deflation spiral,
房地产不能碰的。至于天朝GDP, 天朝
14亿人，美国3亿人，增长＋必然会较高的通胀＋人民币升值，总量超过美国不是什么
难事，绝大多数预测都是下10－20
年的时间。当然这都是数字游戏，总量和实际生活水平是两回事情，本来GDP的意思就
不大。 |
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a***r
发帖数: 594 | 27 since many pension programs define payout amount by percentage of ending
wage, it is inflation protected because wages will rise according to
inflation.
worse, many unions got pay raise in the deflating environment of 2007 and
2008. |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 28 这个根本不是半仙呐．
speculation靠bet.
investment靠strategy & patience.
花街能预测未来吗？ 人不能吧， 长期来看， 花街大部分人／公司都是赚的脑满肠
肥的．
其实就个人财务做一些基本的理财． 不能像花街那样操纵市场， 但是顺势而为还是
很容易的． 其实这经济／金融就是走波浪， 你要不追求抓底／抓顶， 摸个大趋势
很容易的， ０３年和０８年的底我都抓到， 虽然我胆子小， 但是还是比正常的ti
me span多放一两万进去， 所以yield一下就高了很多．
投资又不是投机， 靠的是follow strategy和做好数学．
就拿买房来说， 你把down pay/principle一个劲的放进去， 更接近投机而不是投资
． 房子本身的风险就不再提． 面对未来， 把cash hold在手， 用mortgage loa
n hedge, 如果未来inflation. loan hedge了你的cash, 你的cash可以放进股票， 高
息bond, 黄金等， 提高整体资产保值率． 如果deflation， cash hedge loan, 继
续h... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 29 握在手里， 钱到用时方恨少．
我０３年０８年的bottom的时候都敢往股票里放钱， 但是总是受限于活钱太少．
cash和loan互相hedge.
inflation了， 有loan, 然后cash买个抗通etf之类的
deflation, 有cash， 你才能捡便宜货买， 不然干看着， 没招．
现在这个年景， 老中应该充分体会到手里有cash抄房市底的快感了吧． |
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w**7
发帖数: 1265 | 30 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
sspanzer (sspanzer) 于 (Tue Aug 3 21:38:59 2010, 美东) 提到:
国内有个闲房
放在那里不装修也没法出租 租出去也没多少钱
我爸考虑他国内养老金以后比较少
想一次性卖了, 在美国买个condo或者小house
然后出租, 每月的租金1000多美元也够国内的花费了
即使不怎么升值, 还是比较划算的吧
我想想也是, 从道理上来说听起来是不错的主意
但是我自己没结婚也还都没有买房子(一两年也会买), 所以没什么经验
大家说说这样可操作么
如果房子放我的名下, 将来两个房子, 是不是税啊什么都会很高?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fromSWS (boy) 于 (Tue Aug 3 22:20:06 2010, 美东) 提到:
可行，但是建议考虑以下事项。
1.相当多的condo不让出租。
2.condo的管理费也不低。
3.房租有可能收不到。
4.专业出租说不定还要交营业税。
5.如果能够支付... 阅读全帖 |
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f*****u
发帖数: 729 | 31 【 以下文字转载自 BayAreaHomeLoan 俱乐部 】
发信人: frankfu (Frank), 信区: BayAreaHomeLoan
标 题: Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 27 20:11:47 2011, 美东)
The Federal Reserve will remain the biggest buyer of Treasuries, even after
the second round of quantitative easing ends this week, as the central bank
uses its $2.86 trillion balance sheet to keep interest rates low.
While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed
said June 22 that it will contin... 阅读全帖 |
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v********e
发帖数: 1985 | 32 提前付本金最不合算了。如果deflation，房价跌，你想strategic default，本金付的
越少越好。如果inflation，货币贬值，同样一百块钱，越晚付越好。 |
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d****t
发帖数: 372 | 33 这个教授本人是个jew, 却是个反华先锋! 大家应该反击它才对!
http://www.arthurhu.com/index/matloff.htm
Norman Matloff, The Hatchet Man of Asian Immigration
(Arthur Hu's Norm Matloff fan site) | New additions
Arthur Hu's Norman Matloff page
http://www.arthurhu.com/index/matloff.htm
2 Quick Intros to Matloff / Immigration Issues
Asian Focus April 1998: The Chinese Must Go! Matloff's Myth of a Programmer
Shortage
George Nichol's Other Matloff Fan Site (easier to navigate than this one!)
Where Matloff's been Published
How to C... 阅读全帖 |
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f******I
发帖数: 769 | 34
when the cuff is deflating, you auscultate with stethscope, correlating the
height of the mercury, the first sound you hear is the systolic pressure and
the last sound you hear is the diatolic pressure |
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b****b
发帖数: 199 | 35 The only reason to buy saving bond now is because it allows using credit card.
With 2-5% cash rebate (or plus 6-12 months 0% APR), it would be a very good
deal. The choice is determined by the length of period you expected to hold.
For a relatively short period, 1-2 years, EE bond wold be a good choice due to
expected deflation and increasing interest rate.
However, if you don't have a good credit card to use by now (the last day of
saving bond purchase by credit card), and you don't plan to h |
|
q**j
发帖数: 10612 | 36 抛砖引玉，希望能够引起大家讨论。
ibond adjust for inflation by changing the floating component of the rate.
TIPS adjust for inflation by changing the principle.
So suppose there is a big inflation jump, i bond will not compensate you
for the money you lost from that jump to next interest adjustment date,
while TIPS can fully account for this. So the point is that i bond only
provide imperfect hedge against inflation, while TIPS provide perfect
inflation hedge. (in the case of deflation, uncle sam guarantee tha |
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l**********9
发帖数: 526 | 37 是啊，现在不是bernanke同志讲话以后大家都担心美国经济double dip和deflation，
今年的买东西是便宜了。 |
|
m*******e
发帖数: 1886 | 38 孕前虽然也有腰痛的毛病，但是睡memory foam topped extra firm mattress睡得非常
好。腰
疼也好几年没发了。
孕8周前也没有问题，直到第一次见完OB回来当晚，不知道怎么了，腰骶部疼得忍不住
要哭出来。一晚上
没睡好，只好把床上的memory foam拿掉，消停了1个月之后，慢慢开始侧睡。
侧睡没多久，骨盆一侧和床接触的地方就开始疼，十几二十分钟就要换姿势，平躺肚子
就发硬。再加上
一晚上要上厕所3-5趟，夜夜没有好觉，按摩也只是稍微缓解一段时间，睡一会儿又是
一样。
现在睡觉需要肚子和双腿之间一个枕头，后背一个枕头，双脚下面一个枕头垫高，舒服
了几分钟就开始
噩梦了。。。
做了无数body pillow的research，都差不多是很普通的那种晴棉？填充物，这种非常
容易
deflate，而且support也不够firm，加上amazon上面卖的都不让return，所以一直就没
买。只能
先用着我那些鸭绒枕头。。。
唉，怎么办呐？？书上说宝宝生长都是靠妈妈睡眠时释放的什么什么来帮助的，我都1
，2个月没睡好觉
了。。。这日子怎么过啊？？？ |
|
y*****g
发帖数: 193 | 39 This is called direct catheterization which should be simple and easy. The
problem sounds like the catheter was looped inside the bladder and advance
into it resulting a knot. When baby''s urethra is so narrow and forcing
pulling out the knot, trauma can be caused at bladder neck. Baby's prostate
glands are very small, hopefully not injury done there.
There is no balloon with direct catheterization, so it should not be the
error not to deflate the balloon.
Follow with the urologists, they will g... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****g
发帖数: 19398 | 40 （原文标题－－The Best Language for Math ）
Sept. 9, 2014
【注：刚才遇到一位平时熟悉的美国教育学系的教授．
她说看了这篇文章，以为是我写的．
因为平时我发表的中文对数学教育影响的观点，
以及围棋数学这个游戏对儿童数学能力的影响，
基本上已经覆盖了这篇文章中几位教授的工作．
我说暂时还和文章里面的教授们没有交集，
不过早晚有一天他们会知道围棋数学．】
What's the best language for learning math? Hint: You're not reading it.
Chinese, Japanese, Korean and Turkish use simpler number words and express m
ath concepts more clearly than English, making it easier for small children
to learn counting and arithmetic, research shows.
The language gap is drawing... 阅读全帖 |
|
z****e
发帖数: 54598 | 41 如果你没看懂他的文章，我只能说你愧对你手中的高等学历的文凭了
他其实很好地给你描述了一种往上爬的路
首先第一，老中大多数是中产阶级
属于那种要往上爬又承受不了那么高的价格
留在原地又不甘心的那种怪胎
讲白了就是上不上，也下不下的死要面子的蠢材
对不对？
然后说第二步，其实我看到他的帖子首先想到的是如何合理的规划你手中的资源
假设你和你ld都工作，那么你一年的工资能有多少钱？
其实没多少吧，估计也就是10万＋，不到20万这样子吧
大多数老中来说，超过20万的我直接忽略你
你负得起那么高的学费，你应该去给美帝国主义缴纳如此高昂的学费
美国需要你，美国底层人民也需要你
那么对于中产阶级这部分老中来说
其实我是这么看
你的娃未必会沦落到community的地步
我估计你的娃会落在state和private中间这个档次
对吧？
这个时候问题其实是一样的，你的娃上state开销少
直接去private开销大，后者让你很心疼，但并不是供不起
但是供起来很痛苦
第三步，其实northbeach给你们揭示了一条明路
你完全可以让你的娃在state先读两年
然后申请转到private去，当然这么做有风险
... 阅读全帖 |
|
a*****g
发帖数: 19398 | 42 （原文标题－－The Best Language for Math ）
Sept. 9, 2014
【注：刚才遇到一位平时熟悉的美国教育学系的教授．
她说看了这篇文章，以为是我写的．
因为平时我发表的中文对数学教育影响的观点，
以及围棋数学这个游戏对儿童数学能力的影响，
基本上已经覆盖了这篇文章中几位教授的工作．
我说暂时还和文章里面的教授们没有交集，
不过早晚有一天他们会知道围棋数学．】
What's the best language for learning math? Hint: You're not reading it.
Chinese, Japanese, Korean and Turkish use simpler number words and express m
ath concepts more clearly than English, making it easier for small children
to learn counting and arithmetic, research shows.
The language gap is drawing... 阅读全帖 |
|
t*******r
发帖数: 22634 | 43 地下室学 Javascript 速成。。。也别 title deflation 那个 coding 的词。。。 |
|
l*****8
发帖数: 16949 | 44 我对UNC/UVA不太了解。个人感觉如果是第一类，藤校还是有优势的。藤校的一个特点
是注重本科教育。大公立学校教授的科研水平也许不输藤校，但班级大，学生多，教授
的更多精力都放在科研上。而且像哈佛这样的学校本科很多课的水平是相当高的，里面
有世界上最挑战的课程。比如数学最有名的Math55(哈哈等着某个贱人进来揭露我），
还有很多人觉得更难的physics 16, 经济系的数量经济.而且他们愿意给本科生很多资
源，来的名人多，学生眼界也容易变宽。
对于第二类，我觉得进藤校优势不大。因为考医学院（或者法学院）GPA很重要。就GPA
来说，有进哈佛的水平到其他公立学校拿个超高GPA应该不是难事。藤校之间给分松劲
也有差别。据我所知，普林斯顿(和MIT)给分紧(有Grade Deflation政策。不过据说要
改变），哈佛很多课程的特点是内容深，作业和考试超难，但最后给的成绩松。不过这
类难的课程拿Ａ也不容易，但也极少给B以下（即使期末只考个30-40分）。所以3.3~3.
5很稀松平常，但达到3.8或者3.9的GPA还是相当不容易的。 |
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w**d
发帖数: 2334 | 45 不和逻辑不通，打滚撒泼，臭大街的人讨论。grades inflation人所共知。
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/04/harvard-grade-inflatio
Getting an A-letter grade isn't above average for undergraduate students at
Harvard University; it's the norm.
Now, a Harvard professor is speaking out against's the Ivy League school's
tendency to hand out As, a practice which suggests a flaw in the college's
grade system and reflects a wider trend among the country's top universities.
At a heated monthly meeting for the college's Faculty o... 阅读全帖 |
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d****2
发帖数: 6250 | 46 通胀是富人的福音，固定资产和工厂都是跟通胀跑的，穷人和小资拿工资的都是现金财
富，今天的工钱发了立马要用掉，明天就不值钱了。
所以fed，御用经济学家都是对deflation非常恐惧的，那是富人的噩梦。 |
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M***o
发帖数: 710 | 47 美国房市太操蛋，我那房子降了价都没什么人来看，估计已经走上日本的路了，20年的
deflation. |
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b*****9
发帖数: 8922 | 48 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
outcry (outcry) 于 (Sat Aug 14 17:31:46 2010, 美东) 提到:
读史有感（庄子之大盗）
庄子说：“彼窃钩者诛，窃国者为诸侯。” 你害怕小偷，把钱紧紧地锁在箱子里，可真正
的大偷，却会连箱子都跟你一起背走，把钱放在箱子里，那不过是为了大盗
省去了麻烦。从某些方面来看，这概括了人类几千年的历史，直到今天，仍不失为极深
洞察。那个小偷能偷几千亿美圆，但美元一贬值，登时美国的债务就少了几千个亿，于是那些
人就成为了救市的英雄。中国也一样，用不着去抢银行，把房价一涨，自然就把你银行
的钱抢走许多，那些人一样是社会精英，成功的企业家。
而且你自己还要赶紧帮着抢，其实抢来抢去，都不过是在抢自己罢了。
实际上美元贬值对我们这些人影响最大，真正的富翁，两千万变成一千万，还是有钱人
；穷人根本没有什么存款，不会有什么影响；而我们有个十万，变成了五万，就叫真正被偷了。
当银行存款的数目在增加，太太自然总是很高兴。我这人喜欢发牢骚，就说：那个增加
不过是假的，美元贬值早就超过了你... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******8
发帖数: 3182 | 49 GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RAL... 阅读全帖 |
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d********8
发帖数: 74 | 50 【 以下文字转载自 TA 俱乐部 】
发信人: dadaodan88 (三一), 信区: TA
标 题: Bond yield
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 26 22:14:05 2009, 美东)
BOND YIELDS AND STOCKS TREND TOGETHER... During most of the postwar era,
rising rates were considered to be negative for stocks. That hasn't been the
case since 1998 however. A deflationary threat that started with the 1997-
1998 currency crisis caused a major decoupling of bond and stock prices. As
my 2004 book on intermarket analysis points out, deflation causes bond
prices to rise wh |
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