h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: Stock
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之二） (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov 14 20:57:41 2009, 美东)
【 以下文字转载自 MacroInvesting 俱乐部 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: MacroInvesting
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之二）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 4 03:30:22 2009, 美东)
Money Supply and CPI
社会生产在发展，在不断创造新财富，这就要求货币供应(money supply)相应增长。货
币供应增长太快，就会造成inflation(包括asset price inflation)。增长不够，就会
造成deflation。过高的inflation会造成抢购和挤兑，甚至革命。而deflation之下东
西越来越便宜，造成人们defer消费，这样恰恰会加剧deflation，形成恶性循环而导致
大萧条。一般认为，长期温和的inf |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 2
still do not understand why deflation. Japan's government debit is also
printing money, right? most of US government's debit is also bought by
Americans.the only difference is some of US debit are purchased by
foreigners.
it is for sure that inflation can be prevented if the government wants by do
not printing extra money, but this is not same as printing money will
definitely introduce inflation.if there is deflation potential in economy
field, it can be deflation. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 3
This deflation / inflation thing can be explained by a quick analogy so
simple even Paul Krugman could understand it.
Imagine a stock's fair price is 10$/share but gets hyped to 40. Someone
jumps in right at the top only to see it plunging toward 35, 30, 25 ...
Is that deflation? No, that's just a fool deflating his wallet to send
money to whoever conned him at the top. He should have known better.
It becomes inflation when government jumps in declaring this fool is too
big to fail and then tri |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 4 3 metals as barometers for the market
gold for deflation
silver for inflation
copper for economic bull
gold outperforms the other two signals deflation pressure
silver outperforms the other two signals inflation pressure
copper outperforms the other two signals bull market
with gold leading the way, copper has been terrible since Feb, and recent
smackdown of silver, deflation and a major market downturn are written
on the wall.
Be careful, guys. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 5 I meant the market felt the deflation pressure today with the cross board
selloff
the deflation pressure started building since early Feb. when gold/copper
ratio bottomed. The market had not felt it until recently. I warned this
when I noticed it.
http://www.mitbbs.com/mitbbs_article.php?board=Investment&id=31
this is the whole point of this thread. looking at these metals behaviors,
you can often get some leading indications. When liquidity running into
gold, i.e., the money, and escaping from ... 阅读全帖 |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 6 as of today, stagflation is less likely than deflation. gas and food are
not enough to push wages up. deflation is a path with much less resistance.
either way it implies world instability therefore gold is in good shape.
that's why it's doing great recently. silver is very poor for deflation,
tho. to hedge against that doom senario, nothing is better than long term
treasury.
so a split between gold/silver/LT is a good package for your non-stock
portfolio. or simply cash is not bad choice. |
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z********e
发帖数: 8818 | 7 tips 和 ibond 很相似。但是 ibond 仿佛更保守些。
http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/tipsbond.html
上面这个链接说的是它们的区别：
Series I Savings Bonds (I-Bonds) and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
(TIPS) both protect investors against the ravages of inflation. They are
both available from the US Treasury's Department of Public Debt. You may buy
I-Bonds on-line from Savings Bonds Direct or at your local bank without
fees or commissions. TIPS may be bought through Treasury Direct at auction
without fees or commissions... 阅读全帖 |
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r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 8 看到一个有趣的投资组合
Harry Browne 4 x25 permanent portfolio
http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2009/04/20/fail-safe-investin
25% in U.S. stocks, to provide a strong return during times of
prosperity. For this portion of the portfolio, Browne recommends a basic S&P
500 index fund such as VFINX or FSKMX.
25% in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which do well during prosperity
and during deflation (but which do poorly during other economic cycles).
25% in cash in order to hedge against periods of “t... 阅读全帖 |
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N**D
发帖数: 2885 | 9 呵呵，我不反对你的观点，因为一来本来大家是在讨论在预测，二来很多经济学家都持
有完全不同意见，我们之间有不同看法是再正常不过的了。
我的观点是通胀对美国政府来讲，是付好药，但也有很强的副作用，而且国际压力太大
，你让美国债主们怎么想。还有如何产生通胀，也不是光靠印钞票就能做到的。
Deflation是美国政府正极力想避免发生的事情，会不会持续10年现在还很难说。如果
能持续这么久，那这个政府就太失败了。我就不用来证明deflation的致命危害了，有
兴趣的话，可以再讨论。
所以我觉得inflation是当前努力的方向，deflation说明政府失败。未来会怎么样，现
在无法预测，得看政府的努力。
话说回来，对于我们个人来讲，特别是现金很多的人，是应该diversify，可以买些好
资产来保值以抵抗可能的高通胀，同时持有一定的现金来对付紧缩。就像虽然股事你无
法预测，不妨碍你有一个好的策略，来降低自己的风险。
", |
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l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 10 【 以下文字转载自 MacroInvesting 俱乐部 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: MacroInvesting
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之二）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 4 03:30:22 2009, 美东)
Money Supply and CPI
社会生产在发展，在不断创造新财富，这就要求货币供应(money supply)相应增长。货
币供应增长太快，就会造成inflation(包括asset price inflation)。增长不够，就会
造成deflation。过高的inflation会造成抢购和挤兑，甚至革命。而deflation之下东
西越来越便宜，造成人们defer消费，这样恰恰会加剧deflation，形成恶性循环而导致
大萧条。一般认为，长期温和的inflation是最符合统治者需要的，因为这样可以缓慢
地消灭savings，温水煮青蛙地剥夺人民的劳动所得。
CPI的猫腻很多。首先顾名思义，Consumer Price Index只考虑消费品，不包括
assetprice。房价涨了，根本不包括在CP |
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l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 11 【 以下文字转载自 MacroInvesting 俱乐部 】
发信人: lopt (运去英雄不自由), 信区: MacroInvesting
标 题: 美元印钞机的工作原理（之三）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 4 03:42:15 2009, 美东)
Quantitative Easing and Monetization of Debt
利息已经降到0，钞票印得还是不够，价格还是在跌，还是在通缩，怎么办？
这就是普林斯顿大学经济学系主任Benjamin Shalom Bernanke教授一生研究的课题了。
据说研究deflation的重要论文基本上全是他写的。他曾经通俗地解释说，deflation其
实并不可怕，大不了我们坐在helicopter上往下扔钞票，终归是能够解决的。所以江湖
上人送外号Helicopter Ben。Wall Street早在2006年就把这位有着一个犹太得不能再
犹太的名字的deflation专家安插到了Fed Chairman的位子上，令人不得不浮想联翩，
阴谋论自然是此起彼伏。别忘了当时大家都在担心credit expansio |
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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 12 贵重金属， 原材料， equity， 房地产肯定不灵了。
除了fixed income, cash, 还有啥好搞的？
Pimco CEO Sees U.S. On 'Road To Deflation'
By ANDREW MONAHAN
TOKYO—The head of one of the world's largest bond funds said the U.S. faces
a significant risk of falling into deflation, and that Japan's struggle
with damaging price falls is becoming increasingly difficult—trends that
are constraining policy makers in both countries.
"On the road to deflation, which is what the United States is on today…
policy becomes less effective," said |
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p******h
发帖数: 33 | 13 最近看新闻, 经常看到说现在long term bond yield很低,
有deflation的危险,
可是又听说只有inflation才是不好解决的,
碰到deflation, 只要印钞票就行了.
这么说, deflation应该没什么好怕的,
fed打开印钞机就行了，
大家是杞人忧天，是吗？
泡泡鱼给大家跪谢了！ |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 14 market has recognized part of gold's monetary premium
that's why gold ran drastically under deflation pressure
in another words, in deflation, everything deflates not only
against dollar, but also against gold. gold is money now
at least, this is how the market reacted.
silver is actually the meter measuring inflation
when inflation comes, gold will rise against all fiat currency
due to its intrinsic value, but it will be silver who will
shine the most under that condition.
so, gold will shine n |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 15
Nah. It's still pure inflation and socializing the loss.
Say the fair value of a stock is 20$/share but gets hyped to 100, and I
jump in at 100 on full margin. So I end up deflating my wallet to inflate
that of whoever selling me those shares.
"BANG"! The bubble pops and the stock plunges, and I then start to scream
"holly sh*t deflation!!" as my portfolio gets bombed. It's not deflation
at all. That's purely the price adjusting to market fundamentals.
Lucky for me, government comes in for resc |
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w*******q
发帖数: 1764 | 16 Morgan Stanley had a report out a few weeks ago, saying that Japan could and
would have beaten deflation had it chosen to do so, deflation still rules
Japan because it's the course unconsciously chosen by Japanese themselves
and it's the course best suited for a rapidly aging society with large
number of retirees living on fixed income who're also over-represented in
Japanese political system. Deflation is good for people with fixed income
and good for people with savings, both abound in Japan. |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 17 By Frank Tang and Aaron Pressman
NEW YORK/BOSTON | Tue May 17, 2011 12:31am BST
(Reuters) - Billionaire financier George Soros, who called gold "the
ultimate bubble," dumped almost his entire $800 million stake in bullion in
the first quarter, well before a commodities slump blamed partly on reports
he was liquidating his holdings.
Famed gold bull John Paulson held his ground, but Soros was joined in the
retreat by several other big names, including
Eric Mindich and Paul Touradji, according to 1... 阅读全帖 |
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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 18 PLEASE Note - This is not research and is not intended as such. This has
been prepared by individuals on the sales/trading desks of the Securities
Division. This material does not represent a formal or official view of
Goldman Sachs as the views expressed herein are solely those of the author(s
), which may differ from those of Global Investment Research. All prices
are indicative only. All references to “we/our” refer to the observations
of the sales and trading desk.
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, A... 阅读全帖 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 19 deflation vs inflation哪个更糟，的确有不同看法。deflation或者超低的inflation
fed当然不喜欢，但fed绝对是不允许真正的通膨出现的。
恶性通膨是所有国家经济的噩梦，钱在不停的贬值，老百姓怨声载道，后果是灾难性的
。我说的通膨不是说2.x%,3.x%的概念，2.x%根本不是通膨，是健康的经济发展，通膨
起码是以上7%，卡特时代的利率17-18%, 经济股市债市全部一塌糊涂。这个是fed永远
的教训，所以卡特时代以来，fed的第一任务是防止再次出现高通膨，美国再来一次15%
的利率时代，国家就完蛋了。deflation或者低inflation很多年了，美国仍然好好的，
股市债市高歌猛进，来个15%通膨大家看看，会是灾难的。
QE了这么多次，外面的钱很多，一旦经济真正"起飞"，fed如果加息晚了，或者加息不
够，通膨一旦上了加速轨道，再控制就很难了，经济也就载了。这么多人关心利率都是
因为害怕通膨，否则"2.4%过了就加息 不到就减息"这么容易操控自如，fed这么紧张干
吗？ |
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M*****R
发帖数: 650 | 20 Gold appreciation in the last few trading days is probably just a
speculation play.
Fed's current policy is clearly fighting deflation or expected deflation.
What the market is worrying about is that Fed is running out ammunition to
fight deflation, and in that case, the only way is for USD to devalue
itself by a great margin. |
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b*****n
发帖数: 2333 | 21 另外两点也有点意思
Performance: Definitely improved by deflation
Now, this is tricky, because as noted above, I'm not an NFL quarterback, and
presumably neither are you. (If you are, get in touch and tell me how wrong
I am.) I noticed a slight grip improvement on the deflated ball, and my
throwing distance was ... well, let's just say I won't be turning heads at
the combine, but there's a measurable distance improvement when you're able
to get slightly more grip on the ball. But kicking a properly inflat... 阅读全帖 |
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R*2
发帖数: 1631 | 22 信，这事儿madden分析了，100%汤哥是知道的，95%是汤哥授意的，小鸡不知道/不掺和
的可能很大。
John Madden: Blame Tom Brady for deflated footballs
Posted by Mike Florio on January 21, 2015, 7:46 PM EST
images
The week began with Patriots quarterback Tom Brady laughing off the
suggestion that the team had deflated footballs used on Sunday against the
Colts. When Brady, who said in 2011 that he likes deflated footballs, meets
with the media on Friday, he probably won’t be doing much laughing.
He’ll be reacting to a bunch of questions abo... 阅读全帖 |
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z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 23 The NFL’s findings hinge on incriminating text messages sent between
McNally and Jastremski. And boy, are they incriminating. And hilarious.
After a game between the Patriots and Jets on Oct. 16, 2014, Brady “
complained angrily about the inflation level of the game balls,” leading to
the following text-message exchange between the two equipment managers:
McNally:Tom sucks … im going make that next ball a [expletive] balloon
Jastremski:Talked to him last night. He actually brought you up and sai... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 24 【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: GoDotNet (()), 信区: Investment
标 题: 巴菲特午餐采访：高通胀迟早要来
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 01:31:45 2009, 美东)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31526815/page/3/
BECKY: When we sat down with you here last year, you said inflation was a
very big worry for you. What do you see today? Do you worry about
inflation or deflation?
BUFFETT: Well, I don't worry about deflation at all. We won't see
deflation in any significant amount in your lifetime, which is more relevant
than my lifetime. ... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 25 【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: kafen (Tiffany & Co), 信区: Investment
标 题: gold silver copper
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 4 21:30:47 2011, 美东)
3 metals as barometers for the market
gold for deflation
silver for inflation
copper for economic bull
gold outperforms the other two signals deflation pressure
silver outperforms the other two signals inflation pressure
copper outperforms the other two signals bull market
with gold leading the way, copper has been terrible since Feb, and recent
smackdown of... 阅读全帖 |
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g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 26 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: dadabear (bless you), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: [合集] goldenrain的观点未免偏颇
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 8 16:24:51 2007), 站内
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
MSJ (Mission San Jose) 于 (Tue Feb 6 00:42:38 2007) 提到:
看完他blog的《现在在哪里买房风险小》，我只能笑着摇摇头。在我眼里，这个列表与
其说是“风险小”列表，不如说是“房子难涨地区列表”。试论证一二：
1. 常言道“强者恒强，弱者恒弱”。NYC, SF地区房价高企不是一年两年了，支撑房价
的不是那个affordability的percentage，而是能afford的人口数和房子总数的比例。
这里看百分比是没有多大意义的。只要还有人能买得起还愿意买，即使affordability
只有15%又如何呢？
2. 正如high tech公司的P/E要远大于... 阅读全帖 |
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c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 27 楼主抄来的这篇文章的作者太孤陋寡闻了，这样比太可笑了
美国30年代的经济大萧条不是高房价高房贷引起的，因为那时候美国还没有房产贷款大
众化
恰恰相反，正是因为经济大萧条后，银行缩减了信用供给，人们买不起房子，导致了恶
性循环的
deflation-->失业增加-->more deflation-->更多失业（跟中国房产私有化之前一样）
所以30年代美国建立了FHA，国家借给人民大笔大笔的钱买房子，用房贷锁住劳动人民
，激发了
人们努力工作偿还债款的信心，从而使美国的生产力突飞猛进，二战中胜利，二战后造
就了美国
经济奇迹
所以中国的经济起飞是和房地产起飞分不开的 |
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g********s
发帖数: 590 | 28 中国人民表示压力不大，情绪稳定
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/17/news/economy/cpi_inflation/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Consumer prices for everything other than food
and energy are rising, but at a rate so sluggish, it's the smallest price
increase on record, the government said Wednesday.
The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, increased 1.2% over
the past 12 months ending in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
* 31
*
*
* Email
* Print
* Comment
But afte... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 29 This week marks the paper dollar's 150th birthday. In 1861, the U.S.
government introduced paper notes (the first "greenbacks") to help finance
the Civil War.
We'd argue the dollar died shortly thereafter… in 1933. After the Great
Depression, the economy was facing severe deflation. The easiest way out of
deflation is printing money. So Congress and President Roosevelt suspended
the gold standard, banned private ownership of gold bullion, and printed
away. |
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R****a
发帖数: 6858 | 30 欧洲债务火山又开始井喷了
来源: deewoo 于 2012-04-16 22:29:41 [档案] [博客] 旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄
话] 本文已被阅读：631次 字体：调大/调小/重置 | 加入书签 | 打印 | 所有跟帖 |
加跟贴 | 查看当前最热讨论主题
(发表于美国最大的Financial Newsletter出版商Agora的旗舰刊物Daily Reckoning中
国版）
IMF总裁Lagarde女士可以算是世界上最有品位最有幽默感的乞丐了：在参加世界经济论
坛的时候，她拿起自己的路易斯威登提包对在场的全球政经大佬说：我带着我的小包包
来这里讨点钱使了（I am here, with my little bag, to collect a bit of money.
）。
欧债危机在打上LTRO的创可贴后再次井喷。
四个星期之前，法国总统Sarkozy还热情宣布欧元危机已解，Lagarde女士也附和道：欧
洲的春天就要到了。如果真是这样的话，那么这将是史上最短的一个春天。
如同我在2月18日广州日报撰文写到：ECB 的良好愿景是商业银行从LTRO得到流动性后,... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 31 They made a big mistake by adopting austerity plan in '97 in the aftermath
of their bubble bursting. Not surprisingly, the austerity plan send them to
a deflation spiral, and they never recovered since. 15 years later, their
GDP shrinks 10%, debt doubles, and they still in deflation dog house. |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 32 增速计算的时候,要扣除物价原因,也就是GDP deflator.这个扣除率在地方和全国统计
数据中也不太一样.
每年公布的全国物价涨幅都比GDP deflator低2-3个百分点. |
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t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 33 中国的CPI数据比GDP deflator低2-3个百分点?
那很可能是CPI被低估了. 美国的CPI与GDP deflator的差距很小. |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 34 Only $16 Dollars now.
Japan’s deflation battle reflected in sagging blow-job market
http://www.tokyoreporter.com/2015/05/30/japans-deflation-battle
On Friday, data released by the internal affairs ministry indicated that
Japan’s annual inflation rate for April was zero.
The report showed that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic revival plan is
being hampered by falling prices, particularly for fuel and consumer
electronics.
The report did not mention blow-jobs, but, according to Takarajima (Jul... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 35 The US Dollar is the great manipulator.
The US high dollar policy exports inflation and imports deflation. A Trade
Deficit is a ratio of Inflation/deflation and nothing more. The US is the
greatest exporter of Inflation through the US dollar reserve and high dollar
policy.
When people understand Trade Deficits they realize the US is the greatest
manipulator of the global economy in history. Their form of economics has
been that of a feudal Lord over the world. If they don't like you they
sanctio... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 36 If you have any intelligence Powell, please let this play out without any
central bank intervention!
Let the debt and asset bubbles deflate on their own.
A recession and deflation are necessary in a debt driven economy to cleanse
the economy of unproductive debt.
James Grant got it right when he said the demand for debt should determine
interest rates.
Link the rate of change of private sector debt to the interest rates and let
the chips fall where they may.
End the central banks and neo-classic... 阅读全帖 |
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h****6
发帖数: 229 | 39 Honestly, Japan is not a good example. Japan is export directed and their
market depends on consumers in US. On the other hand, US controls everything.
They will learn a lesson from Japan. The US government will never let
deflation happend. They will not let the housing market crash. Government
will definately behind housing market. The government will print, borrow
money, press China, do whatever it can to cause small inflation. Don't even
think severe deflation will ever happen. If housing cra |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 41 Striking NYC School Bus Drivers Slash Tires on Buses
by Jammie
These thugs have been running scare tactic commercials claiming “the
children” are less safe on buses driven by so-called scabs. Well, they’ll
really be in trouble riding on buses with slashed and deflated tires.
But this is how the union thugs roll in Obama’s America.
Saboteurs stabbed holes in tires of two school buses and deflated tires
on 10 others idled by school bus drivers’ strike, authorities and bus
company employees sai... 阅读全帖 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 43 只有前面的气囊会几秒deflate, side bag deflate很慢，如果能把人卡住，那时车体
强度不够，形变太严重，属于设计缺陷 |
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S********5
发帖数: 753 | 44 这黑的也太没水平了吧，气囊deploy以后deflate难道不是气囊自己的属性？要怪也应
该怪气囊提供商，而不是tesla啊？之前有过air bag recall，是一批takada airbag，
不知道后来有没有换供应商。你觉得tesla问takada定了一批气囊，然后特地改成不会
自动deflate来加害用户？菲力猫你这要拿多少钱才会这么抹黑啊？ |
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s**n
发帖数: 6126 | 45 网上找到这个
How to Stabilize Whipped Cream
I have a recipe for a potato chip dip that calls for whipped cream. Is
there any kind of preservative to put in it to make it stay?
Whipped cream, as you know, is a very fragile foam of air bubbles, a water
film, and droplets of fat. The fat wants to turn into butter; the water
wants to weep out of the foam; the air wants to escape back into the
atmosphere of your kitchen. And you have the bright idea of trying to
incorporate it into something that you're go... 阅读全帖 |
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C****8
发帖数: 332 | 46 deflation => 油价下跌, or 油价下跌 => deflation? |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 47
pay3
I agree with demon on this one. In a world of fiat money, it is foolish to
think we will just replay 1929-style deflation, especially when the money
has nowhere else to go.
Now looking back, it is almost like they have planned it. First, delay the
impact of subprime mortgage issue. Second, wait for the world economy to
collapse. Last, start to print money as much as they want. It is hard to
have deflation if the government is printing trillions of dollar at a time.
However, I want to cauti |
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P**a
发帖数: 1267 | 48 I recently read about TIPS and here is some of my take to share:
The yield spread among the norminal rate Treasury and TIPS (breakeven rate)is indication of future expected inflation/deflation.The breakeven rate was in negative territory
last Nov-Dec since the market anticipates a future deflation and investors
rushed to buy safest treasuries, and it was a good entry point (low price =>
high yield). But as more and more investors are turning to risker options,
they move out of Treasury to TIPS,w |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 49 I'm actually being converted to the deflation camp recently...mainly
disappointed by the stress-test results and the increasing accumulation of "
shadow inventory" in the real estate market.
So I agree with the importance of fighting for survival in the deflationary
period. But it is also important to accumulate assets whenever possible (i.e
. make sure of survival first), otherwise one gains nothing in the end.
I still believe the deflation cycle in US is going to be shorter than the
Japanese, |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 50
This doesn't make sense. If you expect continuous deflation, you should
pay off your loan as quick as possible...because tomorrow's money is
going to worth more than today's. So, most likely, you are expecting
inflation soon as well? (unlike Japan's forever deflation cycle?)
I also think excessive cash makes no sense. Some of the people here
have argued for 3+ years emergency cash. But the fact is you couldn't
expect the society will still hold together if there is prolonged mass
unemployment. |
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