x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 1 银行看具体个股。招商银行很bearish，别的就不好说 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 2 In the U.S. the savings rate is 5.1%2 with 25% of net worth going into the
markets3. In China the savings rate is an impressive 50%4, however,
according to China economic research firm PRC Macro, the average household
only has 4.4% of their net worth5 invested in the stock market.
###xiaoxiaoren's comments:
Yes, in my family, my parents contribute less than 1% in stock market. I am
doing the exact reverse way 200% in stock market.
401k in china is absolutely a game change policy. It will happen,... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******g
发帖数: 1978 | 3 sorry can not type Chinese now.
your statement, these contradicts each other:
"中国股市特别是牛市，和国家经济的关系我认为不大"
vs
"今年有中国经济本身的疲软。...但这个是潜在大利空之一"
I never hear any stock market that only rely on bearish outlook and refuse
to rely on bull outlook.
it has to be symmetrical. |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 4 wrong again。
大volume要看趋势，
大volume可以是bearish，也是bullish。
小volume才是反转。
TA基础，美女。别瞎预测了，没几个人TA弄成大湿这样的。 |
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q**c
发帖数: 179 | 5 provide a few reasons?
I sold more yesterday, and now only have 1/5 of the total.
The only reason I realized that I might be so wrong
was that I saw lots of people did the same thing
yesterday on the discussion boards.
A few days ago, there was a good discussion about being bullish
or bearish in the SZ board. Actually half vs. half. Each side
has seemingly solid reasons. I guess that's why mkt is side-walking
these days. I would think mkt is waiting for a signal and each way
is possible. |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 6 平安有很多，中国平安还是平安银行？
交通银行被我弄撤了，短期bearish |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 7 3只乌鸦装扮 脑残大傻逼士兵。
very bearish!
感谢昨天马前炮提出三个士兵的菜鸟， 暴力做反大青蛙。
大青蛙。 哇哇哇。 |
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d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 10 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
** 投票结果:
** 标题:
看牛还是看熊？
** 描述:
看牛还是看熊
(1) 大熊市，S&P500三年之后才能上1500 3 票 约占 10%
(2) 小熊市，S&P500一年之后1500 1 票 约占 3%
(3) 小调整，再跌2%,三个月内重新走牛 21 票 约占 72%
(4) 大调整，再跌10%, 半年后重上1500 4 票 约占 13%
投票总人数 = 29 人
投票总票数 = 29 票
crml 的建议如下：
中调整，呵呵。 可能还要再跌一阵。
armor 的建议如下：
I am totally bearish.
Civ 的建议如下：
I choose 4 but believe it could well be 3.
glyzjuf 的建议如下：
没意见，跟风的感性认识 |
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s******e
发帖数: 696 | 11 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: scarface (人生犹如一场电影), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: scarface 选股竞赛
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Sep 23 18:58:15 2007), 转信
technically, i agree. this might be a recovery like we had before.
but remember there's a lot of quant funds outthere who agree with you but
they lost a lot of money recently. And these quant funds haven't finished
deleveraging yet.
Fundementally rate cut didn't change anything - at least not yet.
housing will continue go down and people still can't afford their morgage |
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C***r
发帖数: 844 | 12 1. retirement accounts: increase stock allocation from 95% to 100%. Stocks
are more attractive than bonds/cash at current price.
2. us/international: maintain current 40% allocation to Intl. Within Intl,
overweight developed market (especially Japan) while underweight emerging
market, continue to largely stay away from mainland China market.
3. continue to buy the whole market. but if the financial and housing
sectors continue to weak, will consider buy them. Bearish on commodities
sector (gold |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 13 Armor: 92
Most predictions are correct, but many of them are kinda of 马后炮，呵呵。
tonys: 82
didn't have any correct ones in a while. Or did I miss any?
stockdemon: 85
He is bearish on oil and allowed me to downgrade him.
Johnny2000: 92
He thinks S&P500 will reach 1030 in 1-2 years. It's kinda of correct but
he has obviously voided his previous statement that DOW will not go below
12000. Although downgraded, still strong performer overall.
upward: 85
No open predictions.
tyning: 82
He thought AAPL wi |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 14 upward will be delisted if no new predictions within 30 days.
scarface will IPO at next update.
Armor: 88
He remained bearish on the market and kept bullish on gold during
the previous month. The market didn't respond too well.
tonys: 85
Finally a brilliant prediction and S&P500 almost reached his prediction
range in 3 weeks. That's the only reason he didn't get upgraded two
levels at once.
stockdemon: 85
Nothing has changed about his prediction and he decides to go to bonds
for now. His score w |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 armor: A-
The sharp armor is back in business. His consistent accuracy in
bearish tone finally pushed him back to the top of the game.
tonys: B
After he declared that S&P would bottom out by Jun 27 with a
number higher than 1300, it has never been above 1300 since
Jun 26 and closes today with 1252. A downgrade.
stockdemon: B-
No relevant predictions.
badcompany: B
His claim on Apr 24 that "a new bull market is born" is quite
a disaster so far. Also he claimed gold would be below 700
by Jul 24. 2 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 16 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
starwood (四大伍德) 于 (Sat May 17 22:44:03 2008) 提到:
三月被beat down之后就似乎稳定了，但是也没跟着s&p500彪。market
是不是over bearish了？负面新闻都有哪些？MRK一个药没过，还有
几个公司承认misprice价格？大选年算不算？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
theisland (theisland) 于 (Sat May 17 23:41:19 2008) 提到:
Of course the most significant perceived risk is healthcare reform proposed
by Democrats. People are afraid that universal healthcare is going to
severely damage the pricing power of healthcare compani |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 17 I hope so too. I just don't dare to be too bearish now. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 18 Yup. I have to admit that I used some FA in my estimation.
Seattle holds better than the average top 20 cities. To me that means
it has more room to drop down than other areas. Besides, I am always
bearish on tech sector while Seattle is a tech city. Because of that I
tend to be over-optimistic in waiting.
I have to point out that I have no plan to time the housing market in
the frame of a couple of months. I mean I will look at it once or twice per
year to decide to rent for another year or not |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 19 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
olympic (WaveRider) 于 (Tue Jun 3 10:08:20 2008) 提到:
My long-term SP model turns bearish yesterday with score -20 because the
breath thrust component turns neutral from bullish. This model has captured
all major market movements since its debut in 01/2007. The real-time
performance is even better than historical testing from 1962 to 2006.
Components:
This model has ten components and I use voting mechanism to make the final
long/short/neutral decision |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 20 这是最简单的TA，如果你在这个简单的long term indicator bullish 之后才出手，
long term bearish之后平仓，从03年的87到08年140，每年12%的收益率。这还是
最简单的大盘股指，如果做领头的个股，收益率很容易超过20%.
最最聪明的人，无非是70到150，股市里没有人能做到，16%的收益率，风险极大。
如果你们真的长线投资者，就应该懂得吃鱼吃中段，股市是一个等的游戏。 |
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t**3
发帖数: 421 | 22 最近从道指2002年最低点下跌了1000多点，这是正常的技术反弹
反弹的结果只是让市场的bottom来的更慢而已，不久还会有比64xx更低的收盘价。
熊市多长阳，这就是最好的诠释。跌了几个星期，然后一根长阳High一下。 |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 24 If I am >80% sure my AGI will be below the limit:
1) if I am bullish: 1/1/2008
2) if I am bearish: 4/15/2009 or until I am bullish.
If I am <=80% sure my AGI will be below the limit:
Wait until I am >80% sure of my situation. |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 27 赞，你这个喊得也太酷了点儿……
那我看看应该卖掉点啥呢 |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 30 Don't you feel the DOW cat tail is about to reach the top? @_@ |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 33 Okay, this is proven wrong, hoho.
I keep a neutral view now. |
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t*******d
发帖数: 2570 | 35 不知道kennyD的人气指数怎么样了，隔壁的人气好像又上来了，虽然吵架的一大堆。 |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 36 With long end bonds sell off and 1-month bill rate at 0%, Ben is not easy.
Ready to add more puts,ha! |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 37 I haven't been tracking since long time ago. |
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a***r
发帖数: 146 | 38 Arguments for market topped:
TA: Various kinds of TA signals.
FA: The fundamentals did not really change despite a few green shoots here
and there, which suggests the big picture is still a bear market. Average
beark market rally has a upside of about 30%, we already had this.
PA: Big good news from the goverment have been exhausted.
SA: Many bearish investors are turning bullish.
Arguments for more upside:
FA: Very bad GDP numbers, and a few green shoots here and there almost
indicate the wors |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 39 I am not stubborn, I wouldn't mind changing my bearish view when I see
positive GDP growth. Half a year late from the bottom in the bull market
is nothing, I may miss initial 30%-50% but I can easily get double in 5-6
years nontheless, and I would still beat methods like DCA easily, with much
lower risk. I would never buy when the index runs into 200MA and the MA is
lowering.
For now, I'd rather hold my view of too good to be true.
US has been counting on money printing for decades, but I don't |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 40 200 trading days takes between 9 and 10 months, Nov low probably will be
got erased in another 3 months, not 1. And we are not above Nov low by much
to begin with. If market can hold strong this summer, yes, I probably will
change my bearish view.
I think 200MA is a pretty good indicator, it nicely predicted the last
top and bottom and didn't lag too much.
https://realtime.bigcharts.com/custom/ameritrade2/big.chart?symb=dji&time=
10yr&freq=1dy&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=268435456&lf3=2&ma=1&maval=200&compidx |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 41 Even if you are outright bearish, don't short the market. Stocks could touch
crazy levels, but they may be in currencies which are worthless.
Indeed, a sovereign default and currency turmoil could rattle world markets
in a year or two. In a chat with ET, global investor Jim Rogers says cotton,
silver and sugar can be hot picks. Read on.
At one stage we were inundated with gloomy forecasts, which were further
reinforced by the IMF and World Bank. And then suddenly stocks surged —
something most w |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 42 Supply and Demand
by Dan Gallagher
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
provided by
Commentary: The supply of stock is mushrooming -- a bearish sign
What bear market?
Notwithstanding the carnage the stock market suffered between October 2007
and March of this year -- the worst since the Great Depression --
corporations' share issuance departments are partying like it's 1999.
In fact, firms have recently issued far more shares of their stock (either
through initial public offerings or secondary offerings) th |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 44 Lost to index by 2.5% in 2nd quarter.
I turned bearish too early (end of April) and my portfolio was
effectively all cash for the majority of 2nd quarter. The index,
meanwhile, raised 7% in the same period.
My overall turnover during 2nd quarter is extremely low. I probably
made less than 6 trades all together with less than 50% turnover.
As reflected by the chart, as of 06/30/2009, my portfolio is almost
neutral with a tiny bullish flavor.
The market did not go the way I wanted. This 2nd quarte |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 45 Any ideas? Bullish or bearish? @_@
No news is good news or bad news? |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 46 I tried that and concluded the market is bearish. I believe I stood
clear of the clouds since right now I am saving up house downpay
(to be used in 1-3 year short term) and didn't put any more money
in investment account (i.e., my investment is currently just an
entertainment).
And yet it seems my judgment is way off. What have I done wrong? @_@ |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 47 最近一系列大陆银行主动或被动紧缩贷款的消息，就是最大的 warning.
昨夜暴跌 4.6% 基本上是 confirm signal 了。
这种情况下，Fed 说什么基本不重要，最多管一两天的走势。
Generally, it's time to go bearish, unless China market can make
a sharp return. |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 48 Every market timer believes that he/she is on the right side of history. But
if you look at the history, it pretty much has an equal shot of being up or
down after a bear market rally.
After all, if you are a true contrarian investor, you have to acknowledge
that right now the market sentiment is neither as bearish as it was in March
, nor as bullish as it was before the subprime crash. There're plenty of
rooms for it to go onto either side.
I tend to believe that this rally will only end after |
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o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 49 so many reasons to be bullish on gold and bearish on spx in sep.
spread is almost up 7% this month. hehe |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 50 Whatever, market is not going to drop ... not now ...
Almost every trader who has more than one year experience is bearish, while
everyday the headline is some very encouraging news that one country or
another is heading out of recession. All the words I see are short, short,
short. Market ends a green today and they start dreaming a red tomorrow. I
have never seen market can go down under such kind of sentiment.
And you all see how strong market is. |
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