g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 1 这是最简单的TA，如果你在这个简单的long term indicator bullish 之后才出手，
long term bearish之后平仓，从03年的87到08年140，每年12%的收益率。这还是
最简单的大盘股指，如果做领头的个股，收益率很容易超过20%.
最最聪明的人，无非是70到150，股市里没有人能做到，16%的收益率，风险极大。
如果你们真的长线投资者，就应该懂得吃鱼吃中段，股市是一个等的游戏。 | K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 It is a great method.
However, in bull years, it tends to be beaten slightly by the index.
Most people don't feel comfortable showing off an APY that lags S&P500
for 4 straight years ah...
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 这是最简单的TA，如果你在这个简单的long term indicator bullish 之后才出手，
: long term bearish之后平仓，从03年的87到08年140，每年12%的收益率。这还是
: 最简单的大盘股指，如果做领头的个股，收益率很容易超过20%.
: 最最聪明的人，无非是70到150，股市里没有人能做到，16%的收益率，风险极大。
: 如果你们真的长线投资者，就应该懂得吃鱼吃中段，股市是一个等的游戏。
| f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 3 没看懂。这个需要timing吗？
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 这是最简单的TA，如果你在这个简单的long term indicator bullish 之后才出手，
: long term bearish之后平仓，从03年的87到08年140，每年12%的收益率。这还是
: 最简单的大盘股指，如果做领头的个股，收益率很容易超过20%.
: 最最聪明的人，无非是70到150，股市里没有人能做到，16%的收益率，风险极大。
: 如果你们真的长线投资者，就应该懂得吃鱼吃中段，股市是一个等的游戏。
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 This is about timing on when to buy and when to sell, you don't necessarily
buy SPY. e.g. You can buy 2X or 3X pro share, or any aggressive stock/fund/
option/future you want.
The point is, even simple timing method like this would generate way better
result than DCA, with much less risk. Not to mention the protection in bear
market, i.e. if you don't want to profit from shorting, you can stay away.
And you easily beat the market, if that's your goal. | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 5 好虫能详细说说你的指标么？图上东西太多。
necessarily
better
bear
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: This is about timing on when to buy and when to sell, you don't necessarily
: buy SPY. e.g. You can buy 2X or 3X pro share, or any aggressive stock/fund/
: option/future you want.
: The point is, even simple timing method like this would generate way better
: result than DCA, with much less risk. Not to mention the protection in bear
: market, i.e. if you don't want to profit from shorting, you can stay away.
: And you easily beat the market, if that's your goal.
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 6 It is indeed a very obvious good method at this moment.
However, what I tried to mention is, in a normal bull market, your method
doesn't work well. Take a look at GLD's SMA200. Your yield would be always
slightly worse than simply buy and hold. Those 2x/3x pro shares or future
don't matter, you can buy and hold them too.
Now imagine S&P500 goes the same curve as GLD. It would be frustrated to
execute your method. One can only 扬眉吐气 after the next bear market
comes.
necessarily
better
bear
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: This is about timing on when to buy and when to sell, you don't necessarily
: buy SPY. e.g. You can buy 2X or 3X pro share, or any aggressive stock/fund/
: option/future you want.
: The point is, even simple timing method like this would generate way better
: result than DCA, with much less risk. Not to mention the protection in bear
: market, i.e. if you don't want to profit from shorting, you can stay away.
: And you easily beat the market, if that's your goal.
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 GLD has too short history. You may also want to look at WMT. If you execute
SMA200, not much difference in the yield from prices, but you'll miss a lot
of dividends.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It is indeed a very obvious good method at this moment.
: However, what I tried to mention is, in a normal bull market, your method
: doesn't work well. Take a look at GLD's SMA200. Your yield would be always
: slightly worse than simply buy and hold. Those 2x/3x pro shares or future
: don't matter, you can buy and hold them too.
: Now imagine S&P500 goes the same curve as GLD. It would be frustrated to
: execute your method. One can only 扬眉吐气 after the next bear market
: comes.
:
: necessarily
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 8 就那个above 20 SMA monthly就是一个很好的长线indicator,
buy when price > 20SMA, sell when price < 20SMA.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 好虫能详细说说你的指标么？图上东西太多。
:
: necessarily
: better
: bear
|
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 9 GLD is kind of cyclic, full of manipulation. No one can manipulate
SPX over a multiple year run. It's a different story.
To tell a bull market from bear market is called timing, and it doesn't
matter if it's yield is slightly less than index. You can always use
leverage. Double, triple your return in bull market and stay away from
bear market, or even short in bear market, and you are above water most of
the time.
Now if you can't time it, though you can also use leverage in bull market,
you ha
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It is indeed a very obvious good method at this moment.
: However, what I tried to mention is, in a normal bull market, your method
: doesn't work well. Take a look at GLD's SMA200. Your yield would be always
: slightly worse than simply buy and hold. Those 2x/3x pro shares or future
: don't matter, you can buy and hold them too.
: Now imagine S&P500 goes the same curve as GLD. It would be frustrated to
: execute your method. One can only 扬眉吐气 after the next bear market
: comes.
:
: necessarily
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 10 Why 20SMA instead of 15SMA or 30SMA or 50SMA?
I think the underlying bet is the shape and length of economic cycles. It
assumes a bear market typically last some time more than 20 months. This was
true (or happened to be true) for the previous bear market, so this method
works well. If a bear market last for, say 5 years with several up-and-down
on the time scale of 1-2 years, you will need something like 40SMA to
provide a good timing. If we are at a long pig market like 70's, you are
going to
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 就那个above 20 SMA monthly就是一个很好的长线indicator,
: buy when price > 20SMA, sell when price < 20SMA.
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 11 Trending indicator like moving average usually assumes a trending market.
And indeed if it's a long pig market, it wouldn't work.
That being said, long pig market was rare in history, at least 2/3 of time
it's trending, either up or down. You can apply the same indicator on the
entire history and it's not just for last bear/bull run, as long as it's
trending market, it would work reasonably well.
Now back to pig market, to avoid using a trending indicator on a pig market,
you can combine other i | K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 hehe, what are your thoughts on Walmart chart? What if SPY suddenly behaves
like the WMT curve in the next 10 years? It's unlikely, but you can't know
if it's gonna be a trending market or not, until you look back after 10 years
ah...
market,
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Trending indicator like moving average usually assumes a trending market.
: And indeed if it's a long pig market, it wouldn't work.
: That being said, long pig market was rare in history, at least 2/3 of time
: it's trending, either up or down. You can apply the same indicator on the
: entire history and it's not just for last bear/bull run, as long as it's
: trending market, it would work reasonably well.
: Now back to pig market, to avoid using a trending indicator on a pig market,
: you can combine other i
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 13 Single stock can be affected by ER, news, and are usually more volatile.
I am not so sold on TAing single stock, I am more interested in
analyzing the general market and play ETF, or pick leading stock in leading
sector. If some stock doesn't fit your strategy, move on and you don't
have to play particular stock.
Market is trending 2/3 of time, that's by statistics. TA is asssuming
history will repeats itself. What if stock market is indeed white noise?
then there's no winning strategy at all. I
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: hehe, what are your thoughts on Walmart chart? What if SPY suddenly behaves
: like the WMT curve in the next 10 years? It's unlikely, but you can't know
: if it's gonna be a trending market or not, until you look back after 10 years
: ah...
:
: market,
| m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 14
assumption
Well somebody else also said "history always repeats itself - in different
ways."
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Single stock can be affected by ER, news, and are usually more volatile.
: I am not so sold on TAing single stock, I am more interested in
: analyzing the general market and play ETF, or pick leading stock in leading
: sector. If some stock doesn't fit your strategy, move on and you don't
: have to play particular stock.
: Market is trending 2/3 of time, that's by statistics. TA is asssuming
: history will repeats itself. What if stock market is indeed white noise?
: then there's no winning strategy at all. I
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