K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 1 I just heard that vehicle repossession rate is lower than house
foreclosure rate.
It looks like I shouldn't considering buying a house before I see
Ford/Toyota sells more cars. Does that sound logical? @_@ |
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 2 when people have to make a choice between their house and their car,
normally they default on houses first. since they need a car to work and get
their life back, and they can still live in the freaking house for a long
while after they stop making pmts. |
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 3 车贷不还会有什么后果？
get
【在 i******l 的大作中提到】
: when people have to make a choice between their house and their car,
: normally they default on houses first. since they need a car to work and get
: their life back, and they can still live in the freaking house for a long
: while after they stop making pmts.
|
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 4 车被抢走，毫无人情可以讲。 这就是万恶的渍本主义社会
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 车贷不还会有什么后果？
:
: get
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 5 so true.
get
【在 i******l 的大作中提到】
: when people have to make a choice between their house and their car,
: normally they default on houses first. since they need a car to work and get
: their life back, and they can still live in the freaking house for a long
: while after they stop making pmts.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 6 My 2 cents.
To me, it's hard to evaluate a house in a coastal city since the price is
always way beyond the building cost itself, but I still think we can figure
out if it's cheap or not.
Generally, it's a better time to buy house than 2 years ago when people wait
in lines to bid up the price of the house. However, in general, it takes
more time for housing price to move than the time it would take for a stock
market to move. Look at Japanese housing market, it took more than 15 years
for the ho
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I just heard that vehicle repossession rate is lower than house
: foreclosure rate.
: It looks like I shouldn't considering buying a house before I see
: Ford/Toyota sells more cars. Does that sound logical? @_@
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 7 BTW, this idea seems very logic. And you can check if it's correct in
history
data.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I just heard that vehicle repossession rate is lower than house
: foreclosure rate.
: It looks like I shouldn't considering buying a house before I see
: Ford/Toyota sells more cars. Does that sound logical? @_@
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 8 So my idea is logical then?
If people can't even afford cars, there is no reason they can afford
a house, since you said they keep the car and throw away the house.
get
【在 i******l 的大作中提到】
: when people have to make a choice between their house and their car,
: normally they default on houses first. since they need a car to work and get
: their life back, and they can still live in the freaking house for a long
: while after they stop making pmts.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 9 Thanks. I checked, only 5 foreclosures within 5 miles, 555555.
I also have an easy way to evaluate the foreclosure rate: now the majority
people around my apartment complex are in their 20s. Once more than half are
over 40, it's probably time to buy a house, haha.
figure
wait
stock
years
amount
price
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents.
: To me, it's hard to evaluate a house in a coastal city since the price is
: always way beyond the building cost itself, but I still think we can figure
: out if it's cheap or not.
: Generally, it's a better time to buy house than 2 years ago when people wait
: in lines to bid up the price of the house. However, in general, it takes
: more time for housing price to move than the time it would take for a stock
: market to move. Look at Japanese housing market, it took more than 15 years
: for the ho
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 10 People who are out of foreclosure rent house instead of apartment, so your
criteria is not exactly scientific.
Why they rent a house instead of apartment? You have to have a house to know
that. I am watching my junk increases at exponential rate since I bought my
house. I don't think they will fit back into an apartment anymore. Plus,
when the foreclosure really rises, there are so many investors out there who
want to rent it out to become cashflow positive. You have endless pool of
empty house
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Thanks. I checked, only 5 foreclosures within 5 miles, 555555.
: I also have an easy way to evaluate the foreclosure rate: now the majority
: people around my apartment complex are in their 20s. Once more than half are
: over 40, it's probably time to buy a house, haha.
:
: figure
: wait
: stock
: years
: amount
|
|
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 11 For me, the major consideration of buying a house is the price.
I don't mind renting for 10 years. I will rent a house if necessary.
Currently the rate of house price dropping is much more than the rent that
I am paying.
Because of that, I will have to do some adjustment to the family life at
some point. The current place that I am staying can only work for at most
3-4 more years before I'll have to move out (due to inconvenience).
By doing some research on the house price anticipation, I will h
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: People who are out of foreclosure rent house instead of apartment, so your
: criteria is not exactly scientific.
: Why they rent a house instead of apartment? You have to have a house to know
: that. I am watching my junk increases at exponential rate since I bought my
: house. I don't think they will fit back into an apartment anymore. Plus,
: when the foreclosure really rises, there are so many investors out there who
: want to rent it out to become cashflow positive. You have endless pool of
: empty house
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 That's sweet! House is definitely more convenient! I really need large
storage spaces. hehe.
know
my
who
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: People who are out of foreclosure rent house instead of apartment, so your
: criteria is not exactly scientific.
: Why they rent a house instead of apartment? You have to have a house to know
: that. I am watching my junk increases at exponential rate since I bought my
: house. I don't think they will fit back into an apartment anymore. Plus,
: when the foreclosure really rises, there are so many investors out there who
: want to rent it out to become cashflow positive. You have endless pool of
: empty house
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 13 Thanks for the valuable input.
"1. After 20% DP (some of it comes from 0% APR cards), the mortgage is lower
than my former 2B apartment rent. So renting no longer makes sense for us,
although house price is still dropping. I have no crystal ball to tell how
much more it will drop."
It's a good way of thinking. I will need to think about it. I am not sure
if I will agree with it or not until after I spend some time thinking
through it. For Seattle, I don't expect to see that happen in 5 years
(ch
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: People who are out of foreclosure rent house instead of apartment, so your
: criteria is not exactly scientific.
: Why they rent a house instead of apartment? You have to have a house to know
: that. I am watching my junk increases at exponential rate since I bought my
: house. I don't think they will fit back into an apartment anymore. Plus,
: when the foreclosure really rises, there are so many investors out there who
: want to rent it out to become cashflow positive. You have endless pool of
: empty house
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 14 Ok, I've got my conclusion to question 1. I'd still stick to my "rate of
price dropping vs. rent" formula.
Even if you pay more on renting vs. mortgage, if you hold on some more time
(say 1 year), as long as the price dropping rate is more than the rent,
you will pay less mortgage in the rest 29 years, the sum of which exceeds
the rent you pay in that 1 year.
i.e., you pay $1500/mo rent for a year, then $1200/mo mortgage for 29 years.
vs. you pay $1250/mo mortgage for 30 years. (I assumed the mo
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for the valuable input.
: "1. After 20% DP (some of it comes from 0% APR cards), the mortgage is lower
: than my former 2B apartment rent. So renting no longer makes sense for us,
: although house price is still dropping. I have no crystal ball to tell how
: much more it will drop."
: It's a good way of thinking. I will need to think about it. I am not sure
: if I will agree with it or not until after I spend some time thinking
: through it. For Seattle, I don't expect to see that happen in 5 years
: (ch
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 15 The problem of your formula is that you look at the past trend and extends
that into the future. That is a very stupid formula considering this is an
investment board. So since the S&P 500 dropped 40% last year, you will be
wise to short it this year and expect 40% gain? What makes you think the
house price will be that predictable?
time
years.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ok, I've got my conclusion to question 1. I'd still stick to my "rate of
: price dropping vs. rent" formula.
: Even if you pay more on renting vs. mortgage, if you hold on some more time
: (say 1 year), as long as the price dropping rate is more than the rent,
: you will pay less mortgage in the rest 29 years, the sum of which exceeds
: the rent you pay in that 1 year.
: i.e., you pay $1500/mo rent for a year, then $1200/mo mortgage for 29 years.
: vs. you pay $1250/mo mortgage for 30 years. (I assumed the mo
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 But it works if the price dropping is more than twice than the rent
bah? 2x is a very conservative estimate in Seattle.
Also the house price is not as volitile as oil price ah (very
slow response)...
Besides, I can't use your formula. It's not gonna happen soon yah.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: The problem of your formula is that you look at the past trend and extends
: that into the future. That is a very stupid formula considering this is an
: investment board. So since the S&P 500 dropped 40% last year, you will be
: wise to short it this year and expect 40% gain? What makes you think the
: house price will be that predictable?
:
: time
: years.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 17
There are no good ways, only estimation. Ignore zillow or any other website,
they are just garbage numbers.
1. You can get some number from the realtors, although the majority of them
cheat but still they could give you some guidance.
2. You figure out that the average price per square foot is below building
costs when the builders left unfinished tracts and sold the land to other
people. If the builders lost hope at this price, that's probably where their
real building costs are. I have seen s
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: But it works if the price dropping is more than twice than the rent
: bah? 2x is a very conservative estimate in Seattle.
: Also the house price is not as volitile as oil price ah (very
: slow response)...
: Besides, I can't use your formula. It's not gonna happen soon yah.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 18 Right, it's hard to figure out a number. My realtor told me it's around $80-
250/ft2. I think in Seattle, $100/ft2 is unrealistic, though in midwest,
that's where the house price is.
website,
them
their
for
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
:
: There are no good ways, only estimation. Ignore zillow or any other website,
: they are just garbage numbers.
: 1. You can get some number from the realtors, although the majority of them
: cheat but still they could give you some guidance.
: 2. You figure out that the average price per square foot is below building
: costs when the builders left unfinished tracts and sold the land to other
: people. If the builders lost hope at this price, that's probably where their
: real building costs are. I have seen s
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 19 That's bad. They are still finishing those new condos around me, //sigh...
website,
them
their
for
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
:
: There are no good ways, only estimation. Ignore zillow or any other website,
: they are just garbage numbers.
: 1. You can get some number from the realtors, although the majority of them
: cheat but still they could give you some guidance.
: 2. You figure out that the average price per square foot is below building
: costs when the builders left unfinished tracts and sold the land to other
: people. If the builders lost hope at this price, that's probably where their
: real building costs are. I have seen s
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 20 I once read a builder's financial, the CEO's pay was more than the company's
earning.
website,
them
their
for
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
:
: There are no good ways, only estimation. Ignore zillow or any other website,
: they are just garbage numbers.
: 1. You can get some number from the realtors, although the majority of them
: cheat but still they could give you some guidance.
: 2. You figure out that the average price per square foot is below building
: costs when the builders left unfinished tracts and sold the land to other
: people. If the builders lost hope at this price, that's probably where their
: real building costs are. I have seen s
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 21 You can believe whatever you want. But from what I saw in the data that I
have, the closing price could be very volatile from month to month (
primarily determined by what kind of houses were sold that month). I have
seen month that the drop is 8 time the rent, followed by a month that price
actually increases.
If you want to look at the trends, you have to compile and analyze many data
together. These include:
60 DAY PERCENT SELLING
MONTHS SUPPLY
LIST TO CLOSE (DAYS)
MEDIAN ASK AT OFFER
MEDIAN
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: But it works if the price dropping is more than twice than the rent
: bah? 2x is a very conservative estimate in Seattle.
: Also the house price is not as volitile as oil price ah (very
: slow response)...
: Besides, I can't use your formula. It's not gonna happen soon yah.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 22 Yup. I have to admit that I used some FA in my estimation.
Seattle holds better than the average top 20 cities. To me that means
it has more room to drop down than other areas. Besides, I am always
bearish on tech sector while Seattle is a tech city. Because of that I
tend to be over-optimistic in waiting.
I have to point out that I have no plan to time the housing market in
the frame of a couple of months. I mean I will look at it once or twice per
year to decide to rent for another year or not
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You can believe whatever you want. But from what I saw in the data that I
: have, the closing price could be very volatile from month to month (
: primarily determined by what kind of houses were sold that month). I have
: seen month that the drop is 8 time the rent, followed by a month that price
: actually increases.
: If you want to look at the trends, you have to compile and analyze many data
: together. These include:
: 60 DAY PERCENT SELLING
: MONTHS SUPPLY
: LIST TO CLOSE (DAYS)
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 23 I saw it somewhere if the housing price is lower than
20 years of current rent of a comparable house, then
it's a good deal. Rent generally fluctuate much less
than housing price. |
t*****y
发帖数: 445 | 24 I don't think you need to bid to buy a house in seattle
no area is that hot. not anymore
figure
wait
stock
years
amount
price
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents.
: To me, it's hard to evaluate a house in a coastal city since the price is
: always way beyond the building cost itself, but I still think we can figure
: out if it's cheap or not.
: Generally, it's a better time to buy house than 2 years ago when people wait
: in lines to bid up the price of the house. However, in general, it takes
: more time for housing price to move than the time it would take for a stock
: market to move. Look at Japanese housing market, it took more than 15 years
: for the ho
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 25 how does the area of ur house compare with ur former 2B apt?
mortgage is lower than the rent, how about total cost? compare mortgage+
property tax+HOA+utility+etc with rent+utility
a
on
with
lower
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You can believe whatever you want. But from what I saw in the data that I
: have, the closing price could be very volatile from month to month (
: primarily determined by what kind of houses were sold that month). I have
: seen month that the drop is 8 time the rent, followed by a month that price
: actually increases.
: If you want to look at the trends, you have to compile and analyze many data
: together. These include:
: 60 DAY PERCENT SELLING
: MONTHS SUPPLY
: LIST TO CLOSE (DAYS)
|
s***a
发帖数: 299 | 26 I think the assumption of your logic is that both rates are global.I think
you can not get the details of the vehicle repossession rate in your city,
so vehicle repossession rate is calculated by state or all U.S while you
only care your local house foreclosure rate (or even only several
communities close to you) due to your job.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I just heard that vehicle repossession rate is lower than house
: foreclosure rate.
: It looks like I shouldn't considering buying a house before I see
: Ford/Toyota sells more cars. Does that sound logical? @_@
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 27 谢版三包子
figure
wait
stock
years
amount
price
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents.
: To me, it's hard to evaluate a house in a coastal city since the price is
: always way beyond the building cost itself, but I still think we can figure
: out if it's cheap or not.
: Generally, it's a better time to buy house than 2 years ago when people wait
: in lines to bid up the price of the house. However, in general, it takes
: more time for housing price to move than the time it would take for a stock
: market to move. Look at Japanese housing market, it took more than 15 years
: for the ho
|
