K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 1 It is not large cap.
I only plan to buy in order to have a chance to finish my goal
to beat index at year end. If not because of that, my view is
bearish. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 Sigh, everybody is so bearish when market is going up like crazy... |
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 3 as a MHP, why, in 1999, everybody was so bearish when market was going up
like crazy? |
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a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 4 发现里面的人：
Next 6 Months
30% Bullish
39% Neutral
49% Bearish |
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o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 5 put/call ratio indicator turns bearish on oct. 19th. LT composite score
dropped to -2%. sold out all LT positions at market close. 这真不是mhp,有位
常来这得mm知道。hehehe.
almost got a sell signal on 23th because of VIX indicator. But market
dropped too early before vix could touch the expected trigger level.
LT composite model stands at the neutral zone and it needs more readings to
buy or sell. I still believe this cyclical bull rally is far from done, but
it may be not worthy to brave the risk for capture |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 6 I can not agree more.
Industry FA is important, and an up-to-down method is perhaps more suitable
for individual investors, but it also needs very solid or all-around work,
and is much more complicated than a naive bullish or bearish feeling. At
least one needs to have a reasonable forecast on the industry's future
demand and supply trends, cost structure and pricing dynamics in terms of
numbers, and understand what the assumptions are. To achieve that, a clear
mind of the industry's business mo |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 7 I see and actually share some of your concerns.
I'm bearish on LT bond too, but
you can't say there isn't a slight chance that what happens to Japan
could happen to US. In that case LT bond makes a lot of sense.
The beauty of the portfolio is that there is always 1 or maybe even 2
assets have gloomy forecasts, and yet it still preseve captial well.
In the meantime, it will help to overcome fear to make one fully invested,
instead of standing out there wondering or do "research" so that one
doesn |
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 8 well said.
furthermore, the nature behind selling calls is bearish. it implies that you
are willing to get rid an asset at a certain price. so the first question
one should ask is that why not sell it out straight and put the proceeds
towards another potentially profitable investment.
as newgumin pointed out, to get any decent premium, you'll need decent time-
value, which may lock your shares in for extended period of time. even if
the price of the shares reach the strike price, there is no gua |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 9 It is not a matter about who measures who. Now we are still using US dollars.
His chart of Dow/Gold ratio shows that gold has been outperforming Dow in
the past ten years. That's it. His bearishness in the main stock market does
not mean that he has been sitting with his cash and avoiding other
investments.
Just ask youself a question, if you were given a chance to go back to year
2000 and you were bullish on US stock market, would you put your money in
Dow or gold? |
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p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 10 it is hard to say why, since it seems art rather than science to me.
we use different info to form our different opinions. obviously.
however, i'd like to point out this:
i clearly bullish USD till the end of this yr or early spring 2012.
you seem bearish it from now to many yrs.
u and i may not be contradicting each other, and i'll admit i'm wrong if
USDX not reversal by the end of this Summer.
i also implied a little "why" using china, euro, and jap 's current
situation. care to explain why t... 阅读全帖 |
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s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 11 all fiat currency is bearish. |
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k**g
发帖数: 1558 | 12 co-ask.
我觉得这个goldman的chief economist一直很bearish. |
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q****x
发帖数: 7404 | 13 typical contrarian player. so bearish in us future?
if us outlook is so bad, how could efa and eem countries be better? |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 14 You're right. When the fund gets larger and larger, it's harder for the
manager to keep out-performing the index. He has to lower his bar so to
speak in order to invest all that money.
Also, even if he has bearish view on AAPL for example, he's just not able to
sell all those shares in a short period.
a |
|
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 16 This is the best answer to the AGNC problem.
mREIT performs best in a stable interest rate environment. Its income
decrease with higher or lower interest rate.
You have to understand that AGNC holds RMBS security. Although it is backed
up by the government, only the principle is guaranteed. At current low
interest rate environment, AGNC bought those security with a premium, 107
cents for 100 cent RMBS.
When interest goes lower, those security will be bought back at the
principle value by the gov... 阅读全帖 |
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z*****3
发帖数: 94 | 17 Thanks yangqi! get your point. gonna buy some LSBRX when it drops using
fidelity account. my 401k can't buy this. sigh, what limited kinds of
choices.
Btw, would you please explain a little bit the crash of the bond market in
2008? is it because of the credit?
How bearish do u think the current bond market could be?
Is it good to do swing trade for these bond fund since now on, instead of
holding them tightly?Thanks. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 18 Calm down, pal. Guys come to this forum not just looking for facts...they
are more interested in investment implications. People have different
perspective and opinions even if they have the same data, and that makes a
market. So if you are bearish on China, how will you invest? If someone else
thought China is doing OK, and given the current valuation, probably (s)he
should significantly overweight China equity and RE. One step further, if
one think China's (infrastructure) investment driven ec... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 19 The Prophet recently speaks of dividend equities, he does not rebalance,
uses both index funds and actively managed funds such as Wellington. I do
not know if he times the market sometime, but he certainly sound very very
bearish in April 2000, right before bubble bursting. I suspect he did, maybe
a little earlier.
The Prophet is less dogmatic than his acolytes - sounds familiar in the
history of religion. |
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D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 20 Every yr, the famous Byron Wien writes about 10 surprises that he predict to
happen. Meanwhile, Doug Kass, a hedge fund manager who shorts stocks, does
the same thing. Their predictions do not limit to market, but cover
politics also. One is not to take their predictions seriously. But I do
enjoy reading them very much, whether they are right or wrong.
This yr, Wien got it so wrong. For example, he predicted Iran gains nuclear
capability; SP500 decline below 1300; Crude falls to $70 while gold r... 阅读全帖 |
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p******g
发帖数: 15 | 21 time horizon is important. actually, if you buy and hold VFINX from 2000-
2014 your total return(dividend reinvested) is 1.5% annual equivalent. if
you hold from 2000-2012 your annual return is -0.75%.
Without question, IUL would have beaten VFINX. even with averaging cost
basis method, IUL still beats VFINX.
In theory you can mimic IUL with a call spread option on SPX. the premium
for the option costs about 6-8%. so you need a fixed income instrument that
can generate 6-8% interest to fund the ... 阅读全帖 |
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c********1
发帖数: 5269 | 22 Stock bubble always lasts longer than most people expected.
I am a patient person. However, My bearish view is proved to be pre-
mature most of the time!
long |
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c********1
发帖数: 5269 | 23 That is good for you to stop short and put.
I know that My bearish view is proved to be pre-mature most of the time,
so I don't short or buy puts most of time. I sell puts. I buy small amount
of puts ocasionally. |
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c********1
发帖数: 5269 | 24 my net asset doubled after 2008 crisis! I bought 8 rental houses at bottom.
I am a pessimistic person. I keep worrying about [asset bubble]. I beat
market when market is bearish or neutral. I have difficultlies when market
is
bullish.
I am building up my cash position.We will do well if a crisis like 2008
crisis come again.
portfolio
和股
如V
精力
期来 |
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c********1
发帖数: 5269 | 25 I know it is risky to hold. So I just took a small positions.
I feel it is hard to be bearish. The position was under water most of the
time(may be 80% of the time). |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 26 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 金银future暴跌
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 7 03:12:33 2012, 美东)
..............
很正常，这下跌两天前已经预见和预测到了，不奇怪。
墙街金融寄生族裔借基金逼空后，自己在高峰价沽空。
下跌后的新闻和解释只是为了误导和掩护先前的舞弊。
让绝多数的民众继续迷信墙街是靠本事，而不是欺诈。
以下是24小时前，9月5日晚上，20120905, 黄金ETF，GLD,的预测：
SHORT-TERM RATING FOR GLD: BEARISH (74.8% CONFIDENCE)
("SHORT-TERM" is usually within two(2) weeks, sometimes longer.)
(One should wait for 75% CONFIDENCE or higher to go long/short.)
Short-Term Price Poten... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: AAPL
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Apr 26 14:26:35 2013, 美东)
昨晚最新：
AAPL: BULLISH IF <~ 387.0294; BEARISH IF >~ 418.4986
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/34722719.html |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 28 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 肥猫大牛，苹果的股价区间是多少？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun May 26 17:48:01 2013, 美东)
...................................
最新：
AAPL: BULLISH <~ 425.54; BEARISH >~ 462.93
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/34787811.html |
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d**********0
发帖数: 44 | 29 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/snapchat-ceo-facebook-violently-implode-
nicholas-carlson
Facebook Doomed To Be Yahoo, Says Snapchat CEO
Dec 29, 2014 74,532views 527Likes 226CommentsShare on LinkedInShare
on FacebookShare on Google PlusShare on Twitter
Will Facebook go the way of Yahoo? Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel thinks so.
During the dot-com boom, Yahoo reached a $128 billion market cap on massive,
fast-growing advertising revenues. Then, when the bubble burst, Yahoo's
market cap shrank ... 阅读全帖 |
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D*r
发帖数: 1298 | 30 说说房价会涨的理由？建议你读读这篇：
The Next Leg Of The Housing Crisis In Five Simple Charts
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/next-leg-housing-crisis-five-simple-charts
A bearish report by CIBC 1captures precisely the highly unstable system that
U.S. housing has become, and
deconstructs it along the five key axes of weakness which while individually
may be controllable to a
degree, combined represent a recipe for disaster. CIBC's main sources of
concern arise from:
Short-lived remedies; used by the administratio |
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a**i
发帖数: 608 | 31 Residential Housing Ready to Awaken?
After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong
and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a
rebound.
In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and
prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline.
This contrarian — and largely overlooked — thesis flies in the face of the
persistent gloom that has nagged the industry since 2007, when the subprime
crisis flared.
Industry analy... 阅读全帖 |
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a*******e
发帖数: 428 | 32 This is the most bearish opinion that I have seen so far. Taken current
point as 60% of the peak in 2007, 真正的大跌可能５年后会开始 means 5 years
later it could be 60%*60% = 36%! |
|
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A********d
发帖数: 52 | 34 The bearish arguments are strong, there is no doubt about it. The high
volume distribution days are piling up ... We see signs money is moving to
defensive stocks ... Financials and retails are being killed ... All things
point to one thing ... when market finally tops out, this 5 year bull market
will end with very ugly selloffs ...
Here is the bull side arguments. Technologies are holding extremely strong.
Look at AAPL, GOOD, BIDU, RIMM, look at all my top holdings, ISRG, VMW, YGE,
FSLR, POT, |
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c********r
发帖数: 133 | 35 就是你如果你有任何information, 都是能找出合适的trading instrument来盈利的。
你可能会有很多种选择，这就要选择一个RISK/REWARD Ratio高的。
这次FED Meeting, 我第一个判断是很多Rate Cut Expectation已经被PRICE IN，再加
以前段时间SELL-OFF已经显示出市场观望，人心不稳，很大可能是FED MEETING后不会
大涨（注意，这是一个很WEAK OPINION, 我不是说不会涨，只是判断即使是涨，也不会
很多）。根据这个判断，我做了如下BIDU option combination, sell one 450c,
bought 3 360p, and sell 4 350p (相当是short 1 450c/350p strangle, long 3
360p/350p bearish spread). I got about $400 credit from this combo. I
will make money if BIDU closes between 454 and 316 with |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 36 - The market is in a vulnerable state and bearish is the mid-term picture.
But it will not simply roll over
and dive straight down this time, as the mood in market isless pessimistic
and panic than last year.
- Now everyone sees the signal that the bigger bear trend may have resumed
power, it's time for a
bounce.
- Next week, DJI may bounce from 12400 level to 12700-12800 level. NAZ may
see 2410 first then
bounce to 2460--2470 . For S&P, it may revisit 1400 before drop again. $VIX
may revisit 18 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 37 Uncle Ben may have just created a Goldilock single handedly.
Although I remain bearish for the second half of the year through early 2009
, I do think that the coming month may well be a fairly bullish one. Dow may
revisit 12600-13000 |
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o**i
发帖数: 29 | 38 我是这样判断的:
4周ma 和11周ma相互穿越
穿越后的第二周还是红candle的话,比较大的可能是中期(>3 month) bearish
牛市反之 |
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i*****d
发帖数: 178 | 39 market might take some rest TA wise.
1. Market deeply oversold
2. Oil shows bearish sign
3. SPX, Nasdaq,Dow shows positive sign
4. Monday, no big pre-scheduled news
But, remember we are still in bear market! |
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g*****y
发帖数: 129 | 40 Fact: Today we see some asynchronitivity between indices. Namely dow and sp
are piggy and naz is bullish.
Speculation: taking the big down yesterday and better than expected news
today into account, the market is still weak for a bullish drive. I am still
bearish for the market next week. Still looking for a second leg down to
form a W bottom.
FYI |
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c********r
发帖数: 133 | 41 Although the TA charts looks great, and volume good, I lean toward bearish (
in short term) after breaking down all the elements and some hard judgement,
I believe we will see some sizable drop (in the order 200) in the next two
days. Tomorrow it might go up initially, but we might see the reversal
intraday, if not tomorrow, we might see it on Friday.
But I am fully loaded though, some stocks not influenced much by the DaPan.
I am 乱指, by the way. And I might change my opinion tomorrow after I |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 42 Last Friday I said here I believe there's high probability July 15 makes the
bottom of this bear market. One of the proof is this day makes turning
points for all important markets.
We know this year there have been two important days marking panic selling
and at least short-term market bottom: March 17 and July 15. The rally
started on March 17 didn't get hold and SPX made new low later. Could the
same outcome repeat this time? (seems to me many people are bearish now due
to this suspicion).
Ho |
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z****n
发帖数: 1514 | 43 rather than making bullish or bearish decision from a bunch of TA indicators
. Therefore, as long as SP500 is not breaking 1260 firmly (i.e., close below
1260 with moderate or heavy volume), I will sit tight with my holdings this
time. |
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z****n
发帖数: 1514 | 44 I turned to be bearish now. 1290-1295 may be the high for this three-day
small rebouce. |
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c*****k
发帖数: 2080 | 45 没有的事，这个算是一个比较大的误解吧。我是发这个贴后几天走的，但那会market还
没真正下跌呢。如果还在的话，leman倒了，及时发个most bearish ever不就完了嘛，
呵呵。
下面这个贴也还在。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/31497856_0.html
发信人: chinook (Base Loaded), 信区: Stock
标 题: 感谢股版
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 30 15:59:27 2008)
9月的最后一天，草长莺飞，西雅图阳光明媚。如计划中的，是和股版说再见的日子。
厚厚，正好和村长的卸任和vankie的撤离不睦而和。
去年10月，是170+个股版ID给俺捧场，发扬爱心给CTEF（China Tomorrow Education
Foundation， ctef.org）捐款的日子。俺很感动，无以回报，所以决心在股版为大家
效力一年。今天正好期满，呵呵。
在股版上学了很多，当然也涂鸦了不少。所幸在过去的近一年里，基本没什么大错，自
己所能值得自豪的是大家可能找不到一个更准确的预测系... 阅读全帖 |
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p*c
发帖数: 421 | 46 i read an article today, which says there are 4 signs would indicate the
market is gonna be bullish. to conclude, it would be Sentiment, valuation,
estimate revisions and intial jobless claims. i know it's abstract, however,
one thing to be noted is that the S&P 500's dividend yield is higher than 3
% first time since 1992 (actually it's 3.3% for now), versus, less than 3%
for bearish.
I am positive on the following weeks. USA econ is "fundamentally" stronger
than we thought. |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 47 SPY, DIA and QQQQ are all very close in terms of readings.
Bear in mind that this is a pre-election, political rally, with significant
artificial price-lift.
The market appears very much over-bought, however, so it may not look good (
for the bulls) right after the election, as price-lift is no longer useful.
Always scale in and scale out, whether bearish or bullish, that way you don'
t miss the ride and can also average down your cost if prices get even more
extreme (i.e. favorable) before reve |
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n**********d
发帖数: 270 | 48 Cautiously bearish about the US market. |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 49 想抄底的同学最好还是多存钱吧。
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254354/the_dismal_out
The Dismal Outlook for the US and Global Economy and the Financial Markets
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Nov 11, 2008
Here is a below brief summary of many of the points that I have made for the
last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy and for
financial markets:
The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII, much worse
and longer and... 阅读全帖 |
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p******y
发帖数: 3742 | 50 08年9月以来的熊市，基本没有能够持续一周左右的反弹，这次从上周2的反弹开始，到今
天也大约持续了有一周的时间，也许可以考虑进场做空了。但我们也同时注意到，这次熊
市上涨过程中的交易量比以往更大，说明多方的力量较强，所以在做空的时机上要谨慎。
这次的反弹持续时间，力度可能比大家估计的要强，要更久。
从spx日线图上看，在spx800左右，50ma已经证明是一个比较好的阻力位置，那么我们
可以
在spx接近800的位置开始做空。
从nasdaq上来看，除了50ma的阻力位之外，更为明显的是2月17日的gap，选择做空的时机
可以考虑在gap的上沿，下沿位置。或者trendline顶端做空。大约在1520-1530的位置
。如
果结合4q的gap则更为明显，近日aapl, goog, amzn, 都开始了疯狂的逼空动作，他们
的股
价也大幅度攀升，很多都严重偏离maxpain的位置，可以考虑做bearish spread在保证
收益
的前提下减小风险。
最后，不要被版上的噪音所迷惑，熊市无论做多做空都要谨慎，宁可错过多次机会，也不
要在自己有把握不大的时候进入。 |
|
