g******t
发帖数: 11249 | 1 去还是留：对回国发展事业的思考.II
（To stay or to return: My View of Career Opportunities in China）
——在哈佛大学医学院中国学生学者联谊会的演讲
现在我讲第二部分,就是针对你们的情况，谈谈如何面对回国的一些具体而实际的问题
。你们当中很多人一定经常在问自己，what should I do？即使现在不打算马上回国，
我应该做什么？做些什么准备？
先讲一个小故事。我刚来美国的时候，有一件事情，给我印象深刻，影响深远。加州大
学伯克利分校的校长田长霖来纽约，在亚洲协会作了一个演讲，非常精彩。概括起来，
他给中国留学生说了两句话，第一句话是，be an American。就是学做一个美国人。这
其实是不太容易的。大多数的中国留学生，在美国吃的是中国饭，看中国报纸，有人还
看中国电视，现在是读中文网站。他们的朋友99%是中国人。那你为什么还要来美国？
比如在纽约的马路上有很多报亭，有各种各样的杂志，有时尚的，运动的，旅游的，新
闻的，等等。拿起一本People杂志，要是你能把它从头到尾读一遍，都能读懂了解，那
你就接近美国人了... 阅读全帖 |
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d******g
发帖数: 5484 | 2 青出于蓝嘛，很多子女都比父母要优秀，你走的地方比较多看得多想得多，自然和父母
看问题的角度不同。很多时候你要理解父母有时候并不希望我们有太大作为，对他们来
说我们能平安衣食无忧过这辈子是最重要的。所以他们会非常risk averse.你有自己的
想法就去做，长大成人了自己的事情自己做主，慢慢的他们也就习惯了。和他们多注重
感情交流。 |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 3 There are only speculators. Some successful speculators call themselves
investors, coz that sounds risk-averse and attracts more money, like
Buffet. Some unsuccessful speculators also call themselves investors,
coz they are deep under water, wouldn't cut loss and pray they can
break even one day, and being "investors" makes them feel better. |
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c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 4 你要真的非常risk averse，建议还是买点TIPS
美联储都说了要让real interest rate到-5% |
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m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 5
Yep, risk aversion is the name of the game. |
|
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w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 7 我晕，居然被说不懂Fixed Income.白混这么多年啦。 回答你问题之前先讲一个故事。
一修女搭上神父的车，神父禁不住伸手摸修女雪白大腿，修女问：神父，你记得圣经
129条写着什么吗？神父脸红急忙收手，回到教堂后迫不及待翻开圣经第129条，见上面
写到：深入一点，你将得到无尽的荣耀，神父大呼：上帝呀，业务不熟将失去多少机会
呀. 我这里也要大呼， 你们对fixed income了解不透彻略懂皮毛会失去都少投资机会
啊。。
首先经济金融里，没有稳赚不赔的。high risk high return是金杯玉律。如果这个还
不明白，应该去恶补基本常识。 即使是CD也不是稳赚不赔的， 因为你只
算你拿到那么1%利率，你的成本呢？你的real return after inflation 难道不是
negative？你这实际上是稳赔不赚的。如果你要找一个投资方式，能像CD/cash那么保
险，又能比较高的return,那对不起，理论上不存在。 实际中也许有，但是这种
arbitrage的机会稍纵即逝，很快就被taken and cover up.
投资既然没有稳赚不赔，那只能找到风险和收益... 阅读全帖 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8 (From Agora Finance 5 min news letter)
Yesterday, an auction of 30-year Treasury bonds went south.
So poorly, in fact, did the auction go, yields jumped from 3.51% to 3.78% —
the largest single day leap since “Tall Paul” Volcker was running the Fed
in the early 1980s.
Back then, it was a matter of necessity: Volcker told us, off camera during
the filming of I.O.U.S.A., that his status as an “inflation slayer” was a
revisionist myth, more or less, and that higher interest rates back then
were the... 阅读全帖 |
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w**********2
发帖数: 764 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: whiteclouds2 (// 参考消息 //), 信区: Stock
标 题: 黄金高涨是 Baby Boomers 发情在找第二春
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Aug 28 02:32:31 2011, 美东)
CNBC 真是太有才了。
金价银价近期看来要大涨了！
Marriage, Baby Boomers and the Case for Gold
Published: Saturday, 27 Aug 2011 | 10:46 AM ET
By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News
With the Baby Boomer generation getting older and the market increasingly
volatile, there has been a lot of debate about how the aging population can
find an investment that will help pay for their... 阅读全帖 |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 10 Just want to point out that high dividend companies typically have PE ratio
about 20% or more lower than non-dividend stocks in the past three decades
because they lack growth potential for the company to re-invest.
Recently, its PE ratio has reached parity with non-dividend stocks. Whether
it will continue the trend into the future is hard to say, but it generally
performs well when the market is in risk-aversion mode.
And it is a sign that it is becoming a crowded trade.
2011 |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 11 Just want to point out that high dividend companies typically have PE ratio
about 20% or more lower than non-dividend stocks in the past three decades
because they lack growth potential for the company to re-invest.
Recently, its PE ratio has reached parity with non-dividend stocks. Whether
it will continue the trend into the future is hard to say, but it generally
performs well when the market is in risk-aversion mode.
And it is a sign that it is becoming a crowded trade.
2011 |
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t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 12 就算你现在的marginal tax rate很高。
我原来没有仔细定量的算过，都是定性的凭直觉，当单位offer roth 401k的时候就
选了。我先来说一下这个定性的几条，供参考：
1. 当只有roth ira，没有roth 401k的时候，政府限制高收入的人投roth ira。直觉是
凡是限制供给的东西都是好东西。
2. tax deferred growth是个很好的东西，政府也是限制供给的，只给一些退休账户
和529 plan。同上，限制供给的东西一定要充分利用。roth 401k和trad 401k分享
同样的annual limit, 但因为是税后的钱，效果上就是每年能多投入，多利用tax
deferral.
3. roth 401k以后的钱都是税后的，也没有minimum distribution现在，所以很大的
一个uncertainty (就是以后的税率）被taken out了。对于我这样risk averse的人
是个benefit。
下面来做个定量分析。
凡是作定量分析就离不开assumptions，以下是几条：
1. 每年投$15000到either rot... 阅读全帖 |
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t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 13 就算你现在的marginal tax rate很高。
我原来没有仔细定量的算过，都是定性的凭直觉，当单位offer roth 401k的时候就
选了。我先来说一下这个定性的几条，供参考：
1. 当只有roth ira，没有roth 401k的时候，政府限制高收入的人投roth ira。直觉是
凡是限制供给的东西都是好东西。
2. tax deferred growth是个很好的东西，政府也是限制供给的，只给一些退休账户
和529 plan。同上，限制供给的东西一定要充分利用。roth 401k和trad 401k分享
同样的annual limit, 但因为是税后的钱，效果上就是每年能多投入，多利用tax
deferral.
3. roth 401k以后的钱都是税后的，也没有minimum distribution现在，所以很大的
一个uncertainty (就是以后的税率）被taken out了。对于我这样risk averse的人
是个benefit。
下面来做个定量分析。
凡是作定量分析就离不开assumptions，以下是几条：
1. 每年投$15000到either rot... 阅读全帖 |
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z*f
发帖数: 139 | 14 Sorry. Obviously, you don't know IUL perfectly. You have confused the word
premium with Cost of Insurance(COI) charge. UL/IUL/VUL are all flexible
premium products. Within certain limitations, premium amounts can vary as
long as there is enough money in the account values to pay the ongoing fees(
including COI charge) and expenses.
You have also confused the word "DB" with Net Amount at Risk(NAR)when you
say "as CV grows, it(DB) will decline". There are two common death benefit
options:
Option A... 阅读全帖 |
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z*f
发帖数: 139 | 15 Sorry. Obviously, you don't know IUL perfectly. You have confused the word
premium with Cost of Insurance(COI) charge. UL/IUL/VUL are all flexible
premium products. Within certain limitations, premium amounts can vary as
long as there is enough money in the account values to pay the ongoing fees(
including COI charge) and expenses.
You have also confused the word "DB" with Net Amount at Risk(NAR)when you
say "as CV grows, it(DB) will decline". There are two common death benefit
options:
Option A... 阅读全帖 |
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r****z
发帖数: 12020 | 16 本来想说您吹牛，一看还挺谦虚，您推荐的这个明明有7%年收益。
慢着，曾经从$15跌到$7.26。超过50%的跌幅您是不是忘了说了？
去年也有从$15跌到$13。13%的跌幅您大概也没看见。
呵呵。
发信人: Peppy (又是一个良民), 信区: Investment
标 题: 推荐一个5%年收益的美股
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 26 11:13:25 2014, 美东)
首先申明由于种种原因我没有买过。是个High Yield Bond Fund. 至少从历史上看分红
还不错。适合risk averse类型的投资者。
NYSE的TEI。 |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 17 Not trying to argue with you, I'm sure you didn't come up with these numbers
yourself. You must have seen them somewhere from a reliable source. But it'
s really easy to verify whether there is any truth in such numbers...
Regarding the bond etf you recommended, the top holdings of the fund are
bonds from Mexico, IRAQ, Brasil, etc. I wouldn't call it risk-averse. I say
the market is quite fair in that chasing after risk should be well-rewarded/
compensated. |
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P***y
发帖数: 2885 | 18 首先申明由于种种原因我没有买过。是个High Yield Bond Fund. 至少从历史上看分红
还不错。适合risk averse类型的投资者。
NYSE的TEI。 |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 19 If you are very much risk averse, you might want to consider i-bond. |
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w**1
发帖数: 1014 | 20 Dude has so much money it really doesn't matter how he allocates.
Of course with 2% WR it does give one flexibility to go from fairly
conservative to fairly aggressive without worrying too much about exhausting
funds.
Most people would find 90% US stock tough to stomach from a behavior
economics point of view. I'd probably veer towards more conservative since
chasing return would be unnecessary; and I had demonstrated symptoms of loss
aversion…
S |
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a********e
发帖数: 547 | 21 难道你是通过精密的计算来决定来买哪个基金和股票的？我当然会看一些指标，但是投
资这个东西有运气的成分。除非你是专业的懂 很多，否则基本上拍脑袋，根据自己是
risk loving, risk neutral 还是risk averse. |
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k*******d
发帖数: 1340 | 22 GAP不是问题吧，主要是OPT不能有多于90天的unemployment，如果有了OPT又找不到工
作就可能有麻烦。而且一旦确定了毕业时间，学校的RA在毕业后就不能做了
当然这是种risk averse的做法 |
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h****e
发帖数: 928 | 23 膜拜大牛。aa3112的分析挺靠谱的。你有在办绿卡吗，或者说
你看重绿卡吗？你自己是risk taking的还是risk aversive的？
前者的话F更合适，后者的话G更合适。 |
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m*******e
发帖数: 361 | 24 这几天找startup工作，现在已经签了。
除了面过的，我也做了很多研究，了解到最近一些startup的情况,希望有帮助
强烈推荐的：
Zenefits
业务模式为帮公司做Benefits的免费SAAS，收医疗保险得佣金。非常大的市场, 增长非
常快，Andresson Horowitz下了重金。即使现在去我觉得也来得及。
Zenpayroll
做好用的payroll.相信大家都用过ADP，用户体验多糟糕不说了。ADP和另外一家竞争对
手paychex都是上百亿市值。
Blend Labs
给Mortgage公司做SAAS,现在revenue已经过百万，现金流为正。mortgage在美国就是上
万亿市场，我觉得上升潜力很大。创始人从Palantir出来。我面了没拿到offer
很有前景的
Shopular
coupon app，不要小看，这个领域已经出了两家10多亿规模的公司。现在已经几百万用
户，红杉投资。未来目标是O2O整合线下零售业
WealthFront
没有仔细分析，不过觉得他们思路靠谱，也有traction，还处于成长早期
AngelList
想象空间较大，比如未上市公司股... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******r
发帖数: 976 | 25 Mark
三看竞争对手，如果在对抗大公司，优势在哪？如果与自己有重量相当的对手，那它处
于什么位置，这个市场是赢家通吃还是可以容纳多家公司。是否可以找到同类型已经上
市公司，作为收入和估值的参照？zenpayroll就是个好例子，虽然已经有成熟竞争对手
，但是我看到两家并存，都还市值很大，反而更容易理解潜在
估值
四看投资者，投资者比我们了解更多未披露信息。是否YC毕业，投资者如果来自红杉，
andreessen horowitz, Accel,
Greylock，KPCB并且是重金砸入会靠谱很多。红杉和andreessen horowitz我认为是最
牛的。如果有像老虎基金，Fidelity, goldman sachs, IVP这种private equity fund/
institutional investor投资，说明离上市已经不远，估值还有1.5-4倍左右增长空间,
这些基金都是risk-averse的
五看Review,包括quora, app store, play store, glassdoor，甚至yelp上也有些网站
和app reivew，而且往往更详细
... 阅读全帖 |
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i********t
发帖数: 809 | 26 来自主题: JobHunting版 - 该不该跳槽 发现自己还没决定.... 太risk averse了。。。。 现在的公司工作很稳定，毕竟到目
前还没有裁过人，工作也不算少，20多万。。。 新的offer钱确实但还是多了好多，而
且自己一直想回nyc，纠结中～～ |
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a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 27 well, there were behavioral finance researches that say when the scale far
exceeds ones typical range, some people's utility function ceases to be risk
averse. so money does make people crazy so to speak.
！！ |
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a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 28 well, there were behavioral finance researches that say when the scale far
exceeds ones typical range, some people's utility function ceases to be risk
averse. so money does make people crazy so to speak.
！！ |
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T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 29 Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax
Recession, new tax credits have nearly half of US households paying no
federal income tax
ShareretweetEmailPrint
FILE - In this April 5, 2010 file photo, Internal Revenue Service
Commissioner Douglas Shulman gestures while speaking at the National Press
Club in Washington. Tax Day is a dreaded symbol of civic responsibility for
millions of taxpayers, but for nearly half of all U.S. households, it's
simply somebody else's problem. About 47 percen... 阅读全帖 |
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e****y
发帖数: 413 | 30 按照capital market efficient和risk aversion的理论，30yr fix意味着银行要承担
利率波动的风险，任何的风险都要一定的回报来弥补，所以对于贷款者（买房的人来说
)30yr fix的预计利率肯定比5/1高 |
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s*****e
发帖数: 893 | 31
波士顿的土人 房子买的早 1999年之前, 或者父母把房子低价卖给子女，一家老小几代
人都在Boston, that's different story
对外来移民来说，2005年以后还没有拥有第一套房子的人和家庭，那绝对是20万（临时
的）年收入只能comfortably买起40－50万的房子。当然你可以去买60万,甚至70万，但
我觉得那是在玩火，risk 较大。I am risk aversion, 不想承受那个巨大的心里压力.
tenure professor or family doctors with 100-200K/year stable household
income in greater boston area, they have income security and certainty until
65 or 70, they can buy 80w, no problem. 我做工程师50岁估计就再也找不到工作
了，我不能指望50岁以后有收入 |
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z*****n
发帖数: 413 | 32 当然可以，只不过你就不需要贷70%。但是你的那个short sale，不知道银行怎么去衡
量。因为毕竟银行有损失。
对于一般的offer，downpayment越大，银行的贷款就越容易批准。但是对于对于owner
来说，肯定最先考虑到手的钱是多少。如果一个buyer给offer50w，downpayment 20%，
另一给offer 49w，downpayment 40%。很难说owner会选哪一个的。对于risk aversion
的人来说，可能会选后一个，但对于稍微greedy的owner来说，就会选前一个。当然，
对于cash来说，又是另一个问题了。
40 |
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t*****e
发帖数: 2228 | 33 这种事情碰过一次了，输给了all cash的，卖家要我们在他们的offer基础上加1万就卖
给我们，（这个1w是back testing出来的，当时不知道 all cash给的多少价格，卖家
给了个绝对值，我们没答应）。但我们现在这种情况就是银行来批准，我还担心银行的
appraisal会变高，给太多 downpay他们提价怎么办，我们有个mortgage contingency,
怕银行不批准，又怕银行抬价，但是30%其实已经很多了吧，我也不知道自己什么心态
了，以前给offer都是40%的结果也没被接受，觉得少写点心里爽点，ft。
owner
aversion |
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t*******n
发帖数: 4445 | 34 等几天看看,期间注意减压,多睡觉,少吃多餐,清淡为主,细嚼慢咽 etc.
还不好就约家庭医生(easily tired, stomach discomfort, burping, reduced appetite, morning nausea, aversion to meat & oily foods, night sweats sometimes, wonder if liver is
all right...)
每天晚上12点多才睡也没问题，最近就觉得特别累，大概11点就想睡了。
会盗汗，但量不多。
国内的时候曾经检查过肝功能，是那种有抗体的情况。还是这种症状只可能是胃病？ |
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l*h
发帖数: 4124 | 35 well, many people are just averse to truth, my parents are among them. they
had been calling the need to reduce sodium intake and take medication a load
of bullshit and cowardice (瞎说八道，胆小怕死) for more than 10 years. now
it's kind of late, they are still not willing to make any changes to their
eating habits and don't want to take drugs regularly, but they are blaming
me for not sending them the magic pills from "the #1 country in the world"
every time we speak.
well, some of my middle / high scho... 阅读全帖 |
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b****b
发帖数: 199 | 36 buy only if you really need it, for example, you are the bread winner of the
family (and the utility function is risk averse). if you don't have a higher
risk of death than the average joe, it's a sure loss of money because 30% of
your premium is paid for administration and profit, and you only buy the real
insurance for the 70% of your money. If you really need a life insurance,
buying a whole life or univeral life or VUL is a lot better than a term life
insurance but you need to be committed. |
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C******n
发帖数: 9204 | 37 我非常不理解为什么非要马上批才行。
看来wsn其实是非常risk aversion的。 |
|
C******n
发帖数: 9204 | 38 孩纸。。。新来的麽。。。不要为了买而买。
要对自己有信心，你觉得没什么好买就没什么好买。这还有什么好问的。
wsn嘛，又risk aversion，又胆小，也没信心。 |
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s**n
发帖数: 425 | 39 I got 30 year fixed. I am risk aversed with no intention to move in short
term |
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w*******s
发帖数: 96 | 40 一个销售联系到我说可以做到。我对这个公司和销售都不熟，不知道是不是陷阱。
大家看这个401K->Traditional IRA 靠谱吗？
Previous 401(K) Rollover into Traditional IRA or Any Rollover or NQ Plan
Preferred 8 PLUS – National Life Group since 1848 166 Years A+
(www.nationallifegroup.com)
LHIGA insured to 250k per account
Key Features
Equity index-linked return
Principal, Bonus & All Earned Income Protected from any losses,
Guaranteed
No Negative returns EVER
No indexes losses
No front load
Target Mark... 阅读全帖 |
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T**9
发帖数: 1528 | 41 silent reflux 的症状有：
1. poor weight gain or rapid weight gain
2. gulping with a painful look on the face
3. sour breath, wet sounding burps
4. persistent or chronic cough
5. frequent hiccups
6. sudden burst of painful crying
7. painful wakeups from sleep or poor sleeping habits
8. poor feeding habits, possible feeding aversions
9. neck or back arching during or after feeding
10. excessive fussiness, crying or colic
11. demands to be carried constantly
12. red or salmon colored throat
13. blood in... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****s
发帖数: 753 | 42
My baby does not spit up, but he has following:
poor weight gain or rapid weight gain
poor feeding habits, possible feeding aversions
neck or back arching during or after feeding
painful wakeups from sleep or poor sleeping habits
sudden burst of painful crying
dry cough
choking
demands to be carried constantly
Frequently hiccups
gagging themselves with their fist |
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r******i
发帖数: 2662 | 43 恩，那个，人家娃虽然天使，但肯定没胖球漂亮
厌食期就随着娃的喜好吃吧，如果是突然厌食的话，估计是阶段性的，只能be
creative,多尝试她爱吃的东西，以免加重food aversion. 一岁的娃，应该吃盐也没关
系了吧？我看babycenter的网站还建议说自己做baby food要尝试be adventurous,可以
加点中国酱油墨西哥辣椒之类的“异国情调”（虽然我个人认为这未免有点太激进, go
too far)，但至少说明适当加点调料改善娃的胃口也未尝不可。咱们小时候肯定都是
吃盐过来的，现在不也一个个都好好的？反正肯定没得肾亏 :)
------刚跟娃搏斗完蓬头乱发的苦妈于你共勉 |
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S****n
发帖数: 17 | 45 This is the first time I post here. I been reading everyone's post for long
time and learn a lot. But this time I am really frustrated. My baby is now 8
months old. She use to have reflux problem and was on Prevacid for a few
months. She always been difficult to feed even when she is on Prevacid. We
stop her med a few days ago because we didn't see any different in how she
eat. We been trying to feed her solid for months but she just won't eat.
Went to see the doctor today and the doctor said th... 阅读全帖 |
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H********i
发帖数: 699 | 46 my baby has the same problem. he is a little better than yours, because he
can take solid food. he only takes formula when he sleeps. He is 8 months
and started the medicine since he was 2 months.Did you take him to see
gastroenterlolgist? Does she through out a lot? I would keep the prevacid.
btw, what does "scope"mean?
long
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same |
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m********e
发帖数: 158 | 47 我的小孩也有reflux问题。我看过一篇文章，说reflux宝宝，普遍有feeding问题。
你的宝宝还吐吗？吃药了吐不吐？如果还吐，吐是根本问题。你要先解决吐的问题，才
能解决吃饭问题。
我家小孩两岁了。看来三个消化科医生。现在吃nexium，好像解决了吐的问题。已经有
一个月没有吐了。吃饭的兴趣好像也有了。
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8
same |
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H********i
发帖数: 699 | 49 what did they say about your baby's reflux? why ped told me it should go
away around 10 months. did prevacid work well on your baby? |
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m********e
发帖数: 158 | 50 我的儿科医生也是这么说的。第一位消化科医生什么药也没有。第二位消化科医生给我
们开了药，但是没有用。还是吐。就这么到了2岁。
我们没有试过prevacid。现在的消化科医生直接让我们试nexium. |
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