z*f
发帖数: 139 | 1 Option 2:
You are buying #1
And
Paying ($205-$50)=$155 monthly premium for a $47,000 20Y pure endowment.
To caluclate the IRR for the pure endowment, you need to assume a mortality
table.
The calculation can be easily done in a spreadsheet.
An extreme case:
Assume zero mortality:
PV(240 payments of $155)@IRR=$47,000*(1+IRR)^(-20)
IRR is about 2.88%.
The higher mortality, the lower return for you.
A suggestion for you: if your only purpose is to cover mortality risk and
you are a healthy young ma... 阅读全帖 |
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h********t
发帖数: 555 | 2 Assuming the poles of the OpAmp and 1/(Cload*Rd) are located at high
frequency, then 3db bandwidth of the circuit you are showing is determined
by R and C of the node vx.
if you ignore cp, (assume cp is 0), the output resistance looking into vx is
1/((1+A)*gm). Capacitance load is C2. pole = 1/RC=(1+A)gm/C2
Note: if we ignore Cp, the equivalent load capacitance to Vx is C2 only. The
reason is simple. if you apply at test current source at vx, the current
won't go to C1, because it is assumed ... 阅读全帖 |
|
d******s
发帖数: 180 | 3 http://aimath.org/news/primegaps70m/
第一段就很有料，四月后期投稿，五月中旬便接受，对于一篇55页的paper来说速度惊
人。
Zhang's Theorem on Bounded Gaps Between Primes
by Dan Goldston
In late April 2013 Yitang Zhang of the University of New Hampshire submitted
a paper to the Annals of Mathematics proving that there are infinitely many
pairs of primes that differ by less than 70 million. The proof of this
amazing result was verified with high confidence by several experts in the
field and accepted for publication. A public slightly re... 阅读全帖 |
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D**o
发帖数: 2653 | 4 注意作者 \author{YHBKJ}
Atiyah-Bott Localization 1
2012-09-05 09:24:19
\documentclass[a4paper,12pt]{article}
\usepackage{amsfonts}
\usepackage{amsmath,amsthm,amssymb}
\usepackage{CJK,graphicx}
\usepackage{amscd}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\newtheorem{theorem}{Theorem}[section]
\newtheorem{corollary}{Corollary}[section]
\newtheorem{definition}{Definition}[section]
\newtheorem{lemma}{Lemma}[section]
\begin{document}
\title{\textbf{\Huge{Atiyah-Bott Localization 1}}}\author{YHBKJ}\date{}\
maketitle
\begin{ab... 阅读全帖 |
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i***0
发帖数: 8469 | 5 World records
Current records
This table lists the current best upper bounds on Hm - the least quantity
for which it is the case that there are infinitely many intervals n, n+1,
ldots, n+H_m which contain m + 1 consecutive primes - both on the assumption
of the Elliott-Halberstam conjecture, without this assumption, and without
EH or the use of Deligne's theorems. The boldface entry - the bound on H1
without assuming Elliott-Halberstam, but assuming the use of Deligne's
theorems - is the quantit... 阅读全帖 |
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p********m
发帖数: 325 | 6 今天看到一个非常好的关于如何提高自己在社交中自信的帖子，非常适用面试和面试前
的准备。 把最好的部分转到这里。 值得记住每一个字：
A Quick Guide to Gaining Confidence When You Socialize
By Leo Babauta
I’m a shy person by nature, not a natural extrovert and definitely not
comfortable in large groups of people. So if you’re like me at all, then
this guide is for you. I’ve had to learn to be more confident in social
situations, and it hasn’t exactly been easy. But some things I’ve learned
how to do over the years:
1. Introduce myself to new people and quickly... 阅读全帖 |
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a***r
发帖数: 594 | 7 from what you said, you have no understanding in the big picture of quant
finance. you do not appear to have studied physics in any depth AT ALL either.
many separate the finance world into buy side and sell side. I happen to
have worked on both sides.
the training a physicist receives makes him/her a very good fit for sell
side quant roles.
In this part of the world, one does not try to forecast the future returns
on financial instruments. Instead one focuses on understanding the behavior
of th... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******y
发帖数: 904 | 8 剩下这4道题不清楚怎么解，哪位高手指教一下？谢谢！
Q1: 1. Take a European call. Assume that the underlying is described by the
standard Geometric Brownian Motion. Assume that the true volatility is known
to you. Also assume that the volatility used in delta hedging of this
option is different from the actual one. Derive the expression for the
realized P&L (looking forward: hence it is a random variable) at expiration
of the delta-hedged European call. Again, the hedging strategy uses the
wrong volatility (different from |
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p********0
发帖数: 186 | 9 If we assume a flat term structure/risk free interest rate is known R,
assume we also two possiblity of the price changes, u and d
the Risk Neutral probablity = (R-d)/(u-d). We can back out using binomial
tree.
But if we donot have the flat term structure assumption,
should we always assume the Risk Neutral probability to be 1/2? |
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t*****k
发帖数: 15 | 10 谁会做，我PAY 200刀，有兴趣的留言，速度从快
[45 pts total] Consider a 1,000,000 CMBS pass-through (PT) security
consisting of fresh 15 year fixed rate loans that amortize over a period of
30 years, and have a WAC of 7% with fees amounting to 0.5%. All loans have
a prepayment lock-out for the entire term. Assume that the pool consists of
very many small, identical loans. The CMBS is sold at par under a zero CDR
assumption.
a. [10 pts] Assume there are no defaults. Compute the PT cash flows and
show that the ca... 阅读全帖 |
|
e********5
发帖数: 422 | 11 We have to assume that there is no expiration date for this contract.
Then the contract worth $.50
if it is sold for more, you can write 100 such contract, and sell it
to 100 people. You will get 50+X dollars. Use that $50 to buy 1 share of
stock and put X dollars in your pocket (or riskless bank). By assuming stock
price follows geometric brownian motion, the stock price will eventually
goes to $100 (with probability 1), sell it and give those 100 people $1 each
. You will earn X dollars + ris... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*********y
发帖数: 284 | 12 Assume a priori the probability of S poisoning is p, then by Bayes rule:
p(S poison|A,B)=0.7*0.8*p/(0.7*0.8*p + 0.3*0.2*(1-p))
=28p/(3+25p)
assuming specificity is the same as sensitivity
then the probability is 1-p(S poison|A,B)=(3-3p)/(3+25p)
for example if we assume p=0.5 then we can plug into the formula
no |
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W**********r
发帖数: 68 | 13 5. Suppose you have bought a July ITM call and sold an August ATM put.
What would be your delta in this position? Once you hedged out your delta
what are the following greeks:
-Gamma
-Vega
-Rho
-Theta
这个我觉得是long Gamma，short Vega， long Rho， paying Theta
6. Suppose you know the following information about a market:
- Future is at 66
- 70 strike straddle is trading at 27
- 50-60 put spread is at 2.5
- 50-60-70 put fly is at .2
- Assume volatility is constant across strikes
Using the prices given an... 阅读全帖 |
|
e*******8
发帖数: 6 | 14 5. Suppose you have bought a July ITM call and sold an August ATM put.
What would be your delta in this position? Once you hedged out your delta
what are the following greeks:
-Gamma
-Vega
-Rho
-Theta
Answer: Positive Delta. It is obvious.
- For Gamma, I think it is hard to say, it depends on how deep the July call
is ITM. It is true that Gamma is centered around the strike, but for the
same strike, the Gamma for shorter maturity options is more skewed, which
may lead to a situation that the gam... 阅读全帖 |
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J**Y
发帖数: 34 | 15 The only difference between logit and probit is that we assume different
distributions for the random term. In logit model, we assume the random term
is Gumbel distribution. In probit model, we assume the term is normal
distribution. |
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s******h
发帖数: 539 | 16 I assume that your subjects are randomly assigned to the two designs (i.e.,
[A B] and [B A]). If the sample size of the two groups are the same, say n,
then 1) and 2) are essentially equivalent, imo.
To see this, assume that X1, ..., Xn are the Bernoulli responses of choosing
A in design [A B], and Y1, ..., Yn are the response of choosing A in design
[B A]. Assume that E(X1) = P1 and E(Y1) = P2. You want to test if P1 = P2.
So I think 2) makes more sense.
Method 1) is then {(X1 + ... + Xn) + (n... 阅读全帖 |
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I*****a
发帖数: 5425 | 17 This question can be potentially useful. I don't know the answer.
A much simplified and somehow similar problem may be as follows:
We have a single continuous predictor x from some uniform distribution and a
response variable EY = b0 + b1*x. Instead of ranking x into bins, we round
x to w, which is usually assumed in real situations where exact measurement
is difficult.
a) we estimate b1-hat
b) we estimate d1-hat from EY = d0 + d1 * w
In this case, I think the predictor effect is less significan... 阅读全帖 |
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v******6
发帖数: 23 | 18 答案应该都是正确的。一开场面试官会说得到正确答案不是最重要的，重要的是思路。
限时为45分钟。
花旗是从去年开始用case interview的。个人觉得难度为低。
Citi Case Interview
Case #1
Prompt:
We’re back in the 1990’s, a time where there were minimal pricing
regulations on credit card interest rate. You’ve been recently promoted to
a pricing manager at Citi Bank.
Currently, Citi charges a flat 15% APR on all of its credit card customers
while competitors also charge 15% APR on their customers. The average
outstanding balance on credit cards in Citi’s portfolio is $100... 阅读全帖 |
|
j****i
发帖数: 340 | 19 多谢楼主
没看出来这哪儿和统计有关了啊
Case #1
Prompt:
We’re back in the 1990’s, a time where there were minimal pricing
regulations on credit card interest rate. You’ve been recently promoted to
a pricing manager at Citi Bank.
Currently, Citi charges a flat 15% APR on all of its credit card customers
while competitors also charge 15% APR on their customers. The average
outstanding balance on credit cards in Citi’s portfolio is $1000. Recently,
Citi Bank plans to increase its APR to 18% in an attempt to make more... 阅读全帖 |
|
s**********8
发帖数: 25265 | 20 Design Controls
INTRODUCTION
Coverage
QUALITY SYSTEM
Personnel Training
DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Interface
Structure of Plans
DESIGN INPUT
Input Checklists
DESIGN REVIEW
Combination Devices
Preparation For Reviews
Why Design Reviews
Types Of Design Review Meetings
Design Review Requirements
End Of Initial Design
DESIGN OUTPUT
Documenting Design Output
Acceptance Criteria
Design Output Approval
DESIGN VERIFICATION AND VA... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********8
发帖数: 25265 | 21 Informed consent
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedi
"Informed Consent" redirects here. For the House episode, see Informed
Consent (House). For the website, see Informed Consent (website).
Scales of justice
Tort law
Part of the common law series
Intentional torts
Assault · Battery
False imprisonment
Intentional infliction of
emotional distress (IIED)
Transferred intent
Property torts
Trespass (land · chattels)
Conversion · Detinue
Replevin · Trover
Defenses
Assumption of risk
Comparative negli... 阅读全帖 |
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M******a
发帖数: 6723 | 22 来自主题: Mod_CHN_Hist版 - 奉天兵工厂 https://wwiiafterwwii.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/mukden-arsenal-after-wwii/
Mukden Arsenal after WWII
April 3, 2017 jwh19752 Comments
(Zhang's Gate, the old entrance to Mukden Arsenal)
For people interested in Japanese firearms of WWII, the name Mukden Arsenal
is familiar. The history of the facility after Japan's defeat is less well
known. Under various names, it did survive for some time, producing an odd
mix of WWII weapons after the war's end.
(Mukden Arsenal proofmark during WWII)
Mukden an... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 23 Hilton HHonors 2011 first quarter promotion is More Nights, More Points
offering bonus points for stays of two nights or more. Earn double points on
two-night stays, triple points for three-night stays and quadruple points
for stays of four or more nights between January 3 and March 31, 2011.
Hilton brands include Hilton Hotels, Hilton Garden Inn, Doubletree, Embassy
Suites, Hampton Inn & Suites, Homewood Suites, Home2 Suites, Conrad Hotels
and Waldorf Astoria Collection.
There is no earning lim... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 24 This info kind of got buried in the Chinese Democracy thread, and I think it
's important enough to have its own thread. A poster in that thread talked
about a number of CDs and DVD/CD sets he'd marked down at work. I used that
as a starting point to make a list of quite a few that are up now for $0.99
IN STORE AND ONLINE.
These are all $0.99, marked down from $9.99-$11.98:
Bad Co Hits (0.99):
Link:
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/Hits (Bb) - CD/9107236.p?id=1927802&skuId=9107236
Weezer Six Hits (... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 25 1)reduce leverage by payoff debt, better in balance sheet
2)production increasing
3)cash flow increase
4)undervalue due to high leverage & low grade, but start next Q, production
is back to normal, and reduce leverage.
5)compare to AZK(1billion) to BRD 180million(undervalue)
6)start 2013, increase production from 120,000ounce to 200K ounce, at total
cost $500 to $550, also HEDGE is off by 2013 as well, in 2011 & 2012, 50% of
production is hedge at 876buck per ounce.
at my calculatiion, assume GO... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 26 11:55 Do you think there is > 50% chance someone buys HGSI in next 12 mos.?
Yes
( 68% )No
( 32% )
Thursday October 20, 2011 11:55
11:56 adam feuerstein: Hello! Welcome to the October edition of Biotech
Stock Live Chat.
Thursday October 20, 2011 11:56 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: hi everyone
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: I'll get started in a minute or so, let folks log in
.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuers... 阅读全帖 |
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q******j
发帖数: 577 | 27 Don't assume Yuan's step is in the right direction.
Don't assume there aren't any better way to step out that first step.
Teaching students to think through historical events, analyze what went
wrong, what did great, and try to give an objective evaluation to historical
characters may not be that easy as it sounds like but it is definitely
history teacher's responsibility.
Yuan is good at telling stories which most students like to hear. His class
is not boring. That is the first and the mos |
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h***f
发帖数: 4541 | 28 作者徐开彬，美国宾夕法尼亚费城 天普大学媒体与传播学院助理教授
编注：这是徐开彬教授以实名发表的质疑温家宝家族拥有巨额财产的文章。徐教授原拟
将该文在《纽约时报》发表。《纽约时报》方面担心，发表类似文章可能导致中国当局
在更长时间里屏蔽《纽约时报》网站：“我们目前处于被封状态，尚需谨慎。我们倾向
于目前暂不就该主题发表任何文章。” 红色中国网感谢徐开彬教授给予本网的信任，
特向广大读者推荐徐教授的这篇作品。
中国外交部发言人洪磊先生声称，纽约时报对中国总理温家宝家人的报道是“抹黑中国
、别有用心。” 纽约时报在近日的一篇报道中，记载了温先生家人积聚至少价值27亿
美元资产的详情。被温总理的儿子温云松（英文名Winston Wen）授权的两名北京律师
，就该报道发表了一份声明。
尽管如此，对于中国政府和总理家人来说，还有一系列尚未回答的问题。
首先，纽约时报的报道就温先生亲属获取资产的途径提供了清晰证据。在进行调查之前
，中国政府怎么能在报道发布的当天，就否认报道的真实性呢？毕竟，中国政府并没有
否定这些证据的存在及其真实性。
其次，当中国外交部发言人说纽约时报的报道是“抹黑中国”的时候... 阅读全帖 |
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k***g
发帖数: 7244 | 29 http://www.kzeng.info/drupal/node/645
今天是情人节。下午听着老师不咸不淡的讲着Lipschitz Class，开始四处跑神，突然想
到了一个有趣的话题：中国十大古典爱情。
可是怎么排呢？First, assume Love-Story space is a subset of R^n. In each
dimension, we may assume...!@#$ 给自己一巴掌再重新想过。
嗯，第一，才子佳人太落俗套的不能要它。自《西厢》之后，大量的“才子佳人”故事层
出不穷，总是郎才女貌、一见钟情，之后便逾越礼教，枕席相亲（给八、九十年代的香港
娱乐业提供了不少题材^_^)。接着礼教父母、富有商人、势利老鸨出面阻挠，然而只要我
们的男主角得功名、中状元，即使他们曾经犯了错，一样可以修补，便得拨乱反正，甚至
由皇帝下诏完婚，缔结美满姻缘。这类古典“青春偶像剧”用贾母的话说：“都是一个套
子，左不过是些佳人才子，最没趣儿”。
除去了才子佳人，再抛去《列女传》中的“贞顺、节义”和各朝各代的贞妇节妇，掰着指
头数数，所剩的故事也不算很多了，除此以外，还要 |
|
e****i
发帖数: 2152 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: erkuai (三天不上bbs,赶得上刘少奇), 信区: Military
标 题: On the Jews and Their Lies, 1543
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 12 23:21:23 2011, 美东)
by Martin Luther (1483-1546)
Translated by Martin H. Bertram
copyright © 1971 Fortress Press & Augsburg Fortress - On the Jews and
Their Lies is from Luther’s Works Volume 47. Augsburg Fortress is the
publishing ministry of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.
Funded through sales revenue, Augsburg Fortress is called to provide
produ... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 31 Moscow or Kiev-- How Germany could have won WW2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Pt. #1
The Russian Front was the decisive theatre of WW2. If Germany won everywhere
else, but lost on the Russian Front, then they lost the war. But 80% of the
Wehrmacht was employed fighting the Soviets, so if they lost everywhere
else, but they won on the Russian Front, then depending on when these events
took place the Wehrmacht should have been able to shift force... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 32 Moscow or Kiev-- How Germany could have won WW2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Pt. #1
The Russian Front was the decisive theatre of WW2. If Germany won everywhere
else, but lost on the Russian Front, then they lost the war. But 80% of the
Wehrmacht was employed fighting the Soviets, so if they lost everywhere
else, but they won on the Russian Front, then depending on when these events
took place the Wehrmacht should have been able to shift force... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 33 Moscow or Kiev-- How Germany could have won WW2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Pt. #1
The Russian Front was the decisive theatre of WW2. If Germany won everywhere
else, but lost on the Russian Front, then they lost the war. But 80% of the
Wehrmacht was employed fighting the Soviets, so if they lost everywhere
else, but they won on the Russian Front, then depending on when these events
took place the Wehrmacht should have been able to shift force... 阅读全帖 |
|
b****r
发帖数: 2555 | 34 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stoppingtime (李将军又打鸡血了) 于 (Wed Nov 16 12:44:27 2011, 美东) 提到:
前一段时间大家讨论基辅战役的得失，非常热烈。最近读了点文章，也写写自己一点鸡
零狗碎的看法。
首先，德国人的首要目标是什么？希特勒的想法是很明确的，那就是消灭红军主力，而
不是攻克莫斯科 (D. Glantz, The Battle for Leningrad, Kansas Univ. Press, pp.
26)。这个逻辑很自然：如果只是攻克莫斯科，俄国人仍然可以抵抗，从历史上看，俄
国人被拿破仑占领了莫斯科，而俄国人笑到了最后；从现实看，俄国人在列宁格勒有工
业，乌克兰有农业，高加索有石油，顿巴斯有工业，莫斯科的工业可以迁到乌拉尔继续
生产，攻克莫斯科并不意味着俄国就会投降，而如果消灭了红军的主力，俄国人想不投
降也没有办法(说到这里，希特勒向毛泽东抛个媚眼：俺们德国人也是要以消灭敌人有
生力量为主地)。
所以，当战争进行到8月底，中央集团军群在西方面军的顽强抵抗下裹足不... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******5
发帖数: 1815 | 35 Yangtse Incident
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Amethyst_(F116)
On 20 April 1949, HMS Amethyst was on her way from Shanghai to Nanking (now
Nanjing) on the Yangtse (Yangtze) River to replace HMS Consort, which was
standing as guard ship for the British Embassy there during the Chinese
Civil War between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communists. According
to the British Navy, at around 08:31, after a burst of small arms fire, a
People's Liberation Army (PLA) field gun battery on the north... 阅读全帖 |
|
y***k
发帖数: 9459 | 36 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: yesok (ok博士), 信区: Military
标 题: 上一代人类已经掌握了反重力和星际航行的能力
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 30 23:44:53 2016, 美东)
反引力手册摘录
By D. Hatcher Childress
Many researchers into the UFO enigma tend to overlook a very important fact.
While it assumed that most
flying saucers are of alien, or perhaps Governmental Military origin,
another possible origin of UFOs is ancient
India and Atlantis.
许多研究员进入不明飞行物谜之内容易看出一个很重要的事实。虽然多数被假定是外星
人的飞碟，或也许
是政府的军事来源，不明飞行物的另外一个可能的来源是古印度和亚特兰提斯岛。
What we know ab... 阅读全帖 |
|
f**x
发帖数: 4325 | 37 不是脑子不好使，是从没干过需要跟人交流的正事。
跟一个持枪的人拉扯起来，鬼才知道你是不是想要夺枪，难道要等你已经夺过去把押运
人打死才能决定这人确实意图不轨？
丫就是assume别人无辜，但世上所有持枪押运人员的职责就是assume不听警告的人想要
干点什么。 |
|
p******o
发帖数: 9007 | 38 Arg and Rus have depth in their countries, Greece has little, It needs to
import food, electicity, oil, etc. It produces barely anything, but comsumes
a lot to support its fantastic welfare system and crooked tax collecting
practices.
It's yearly deficit is well above $30B, and assuming it can get its deficit
under control, without cheap credits flowing in from EU, where it gonna fund
the gap? I assume no countries would like to pay $10B for its ports a year,
may Turkey has the interest. |
|
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t*******h
发帖数: 2882 | 40 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LL18Df01.html
India's growth not all shine
By Kunal Kumar Kundu
BANGALORE - India's gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the second
quarter of its fiscal year surprised on the upside as year-on-year growth
was pegged at 8.9%. While the numbers are confidence boosting, it is
important to realize that there is a statistical element to the latest
number, while being very positive, rather than the data indicating a
substantial improvement in actual perform... 阅读全帖 |
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e****i
发帖数: 2152 | 41 by Martin Luther (1483-1546)
Translated by Martin H. Bertram
copyright © 1971 Fortress Press & Augsburg Fortress - On the Jews and
Their Lies is from Luther’s Works Volume 47. Augsburg Fortress is the
publishing ministry of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.
Funded through sales revenue, Augsburg Fortress is called to provide
products and services that communicate the Gospel, enhance faith, and
enrich the life of the Christian community from a Lutheran perspective.
Part I
I had mad... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****e
发帖数: 425 | 42 A brain-dead is somebody believes that he knows everything and forces other
people to believe the same bullshit too.
Do whatever you want to do. You have a dead brain, doesn't mean others are
like you.
You definitely make your decision based on you so-called experience and your
ridiculous assumptions. Assume this, assume that. Come on, have some solid
evidence. |
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g***j
发帖数: 40861 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 Biology 讨论区 】
发信人: gshjj (各输己键), 信区: Biology
标 题: Tough Lessons From Golden Rice 不错的转基因故事
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 2 22:51:41 2011, 美东)
Tough Lessons From Golden Rice
Martin Enserink
It was supposed to prevent blindness and death from vitamin A deficiency
in millions of children. But almost a decade after its invention, golden
rice is still stuck in the lab
It's easy to recognize Ingo Potrykus at the train station in Basel,
Switzerland. Quietly waiting while hurried travelers zip ... 阅读全帖 |
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s****y
发帖数: 3416 | 44 我觉得我很理解尤其是第一点说的，我来了美国好几年了，最近有一次回到原来的中部
城市探望朋友啥的，在一个教堂
买东西时，几乎只说了个你好啥的，就被一个老太太“友好”地问where are you from
？我当时觉得挺不舒服的，我来米
国也有不短的时间了，这不是说移民国家啥大熔炉吗，还没开口就认为你说主人我是外
人了？这个地头又不是你的？就
因为长得肤色不一样你就咋的成了主人了？还是因为我说的英文有点口音？期间之前看
啥演出时一个很老的老人热情的
介绍剧目，还没说两句就说you have accent, where are you from?
因为他老得不行了我就无所谓了。但第二个老太给人感觉唐突些。后来还有点不情愿得
说了，主要是觉得我已经很累，
不想一天到晚给人介绍我的祖国阿（although proud of it）。后来车上跟朋友（一个
年纪很大的老头）说了我的感
觉，他就是不大明白，说自己在啥啥国家半年一天到晚被人问也觉得没啥。我说这不一
样阿，我在这儿时间长多了而且
不是说这是移民社会吗？就直接说我只是想让他们知道我知道他们是出于友善，但不一
定要以这个开话头的，不一定让
... 阅读全帖 |
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b***0
发帖数: 799 | 45 Argument之七宗罪
第一宗罪 无因果联系
The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the
reasoning is that because A occurred before B, the former event is
responsible for the latter. (The author uses the positive correlation
between A and B to establish causality. However, the fact that A coincides
with B does not necessarily prove that A caused B.) But this is fallacious
reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and
ruled out. For example, perhaps C is ... 阅读全帖 |
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j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 46 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2011/01/16/top-10-powerful-count
2011/
The Chinese have an interesting concept that quantifies Great Power
status, called Comprehensive National Power (CNP). This index is
produced by processing the economic, military and cultural factors that
make countries powerful: GDP, technological development, number of tanks
and ICBM’s, as well as “softer” factors such as influence on global
media and international institutions. Since I’m not a think-tank, I
can’t be bothere... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 47 方舟子在此文中说“虫子不吃的， 人能吃吗”是中国人的质疑， 而美国人是不会问这
样的问题的， 这显然是骗人的。见下文和其中引用的文献， 其中不少是美国人的科研
。
"Comments on the human health impact of Bacillus thuringiensis toxin gene
product in genetically modified crops"
EPA Review Docket Number OPP-00678B
Professor Joe Cummins
Professor Emeritus of Genetics
University of Western Ontario
I have studied the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) document "Bt Plant-
Pesticides Biopesticides Registration Action Document B. HUMAN HEALTH
ASSESSMENT" and comment in the following ... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 48 世界经济将再次崩溃，大宗商品市场可能暴跌40%左右
作者：未世民 文章发于：http://blog.sina.com.cn/weishiming12 点击数：3929 更新时间：2011-6-4 荐 【字体：小 大】
【复制本文】 【下载本文】
未世民评论：由欧洲债务危机引发的债券市场动荡未来将进入债务重组阶段，欧洲银行
业的灾难可能使全球面临灾难性的收缩，毕竟欧元也是全球性货币之一，同时欧洲金融
势力也是全球流动性的主要提供者之一，就在前几天兴业银行的两位全球投资策略师看
淡新兴国家的经济趋势，并认为新兴国家是全球最大的神话与泡沫，面临着全面崩盘的
危险，国际对冲基金正疯狂押注一系列国家的货币暴跌，这些问题均将沉重打击全球经
济，恶化相当多的国家的信贷环境与金融，货币体系，下面是标准普尔公司及一些美国
投资分析家的看法，他们认为大宗商品市场未来可能面临着40%---75%左右的超级大调
整，相当多的国家的债务链循环崩坏将使经济与货币崩溃，而这正像下面这篇文章中那
位对冲基金的经理所说，对于另一些人来说这是一次巨大的赚取超额利润的机会。
Chin... 阅读全帖 |
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x****u
发帖数: 12955 | 49
What's not adding up? If he makes 70k a year, after tax it's roughly 50k in
hand. A single person's expenditure at 20k per year is more than enough to
have acceptable living condition and have enough money for vacations. The
rest of 30k in 5-6 years add up to at least 150k. He had 10k before he
started working, so he would have 160k to possibly put into 401k, IRA, stock
and house.
His 401(k) has total value of 100k in current value, but that doesn't mean
he had to put 100k into it. He star... 阅读全帖 |
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Z**S
发帖数: 1211 | 50 原文 said 方 interviewed XXX number of patients (n>100),
none of them improved after the Xiao procedure.
Now, assuming the NIH trial supported the ~70-80% success rate,
which seems to be the case in every way, what is the chance that
none of the patients Fang interviewed showed improvement,
assuming Fang did an UNBIASED investigation.
What is called a negative (smear) campion? This is one. |
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