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发帖数: 2314 | 1 The $4 trillion housing headache
House prices have returned to 2002 levels, but mortgage debt hasn't
deflated from its bubbly highs.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
May 27, 2009: 4:05 PM ET
Alan Greenspan has warned that the problems for banks may not be over.
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NEW YORK (Fortune) -- House prices are taking a long ride in the wayback
machine. Unfortunately, Americans' housing-related debt isn't going
anywhere fast.
Prices in big U.S. cities posted their biggest-ever decline in the first
quarter, according to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller National Home
Price index. After nearly three years of declines, house prices
nationwide are back at 2002 levels -- and still falling.
Yet as bad as that is for overburdened homeowners and their bankers, the
mighty mountain of mortgage debt Americans have taken on is an even
bigger concern - especially for those who believe an economic recovery
is in sight.
Even though the amount of home mortgage debt outstanding declined in
2008 for the first time since the Federal Reserve started keeping track
in 1945, mortgage debt levels remain distressingly high.
Home mortgage debt outstanding was 73% of gross domestic product last
year, according to government data. That's the third-highest reading on
record, after the 75%-plus bubble years of 2006 and 2007.
Getting that ratio down to a more manageable number will mean more lean
years ahead, as Americans further cut spending to rebuild their savings
and banks struggle to boost their capital amid heavy loan losses.
How long this process might take is a key question for those trying to
gauge the prospects for an economic recovery.
To get the mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio down to a more normal level such
as the 46% average of the 1990s, Americans would have to cut their
mortgage debt to $6.6 trillion from $10.5 trillion at the end of 2008.
The last time the national mortgage debt count was below $7 trillion was
2003, according to Federal Reserve data.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/27/news/mortgage.overhang.fortune/
?postversion=2009052716 | T******g
发帖数: 21328 | | g*s
发帖数: 2277 | 3 湾区median kuai le bah? some places du pre-2000 le
【在 T******g 的大作中提到】
: 全国房价跌倒2002，湾区还远着呢。。。
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