g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 1 今天的“好”消息：
US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show prices rose in Q2 2009; In 12-
month period down 32.4% in Las Vegas; 31.6% in Phoenix and 22% in San
Francisco
Aug 25, 2009
http://www.mitbbs.com/pc/pccon.php?id=853&nid=26260 |
w******t
发帖数: 441 | 2 so we will see 'bottom' later this year?
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 今天的“好”消息：
: US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show prices rose in Q2 2009; In 12-
: month period down 32.4% in Las Vegas; 31.6% in Phoenix and 22% in San
: Francisco
: Aug 25, 2009
: http://www.mitbbs.com/pc/pccon.php?id=853&nid=26260
|
C***r
发帖数: 844 | 3 bad news for FangHei
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 今天的“好”消息：
: US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show prices rose in Q2 2009; In 12-
: month period down 32.4% in Las Vegas; 31.6% in Phoenix and 22% in San
: Francisco
: Aug 25, 2009
: http://www.mitbbs.com/pc/pccon.php?id=853&nid=26260
|
g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 4 一阶导数的底儿，不是价格的底儿。
一阶导数为0，价格到底（到顶）。
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: so we will see 'bottom' later this year?
|
w******t
发帖数: 441 | 5 still @ around 2009-2010
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 一阶导数的底儿，不是价格的底儿。
: 一阶导数为0，价格到底（到顶）。
|
g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 6 你这是怎么估算滴？
就是按照跌下来的速度恢复，2007-2009， 2009-2011，最早也要2011年价格才能触底。
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: still @ around 2009-2010
|
w******t
发帖数: 441 | 7 but why not follow the solid purple line? and treat the real data 03-07 as
glitch?
底。
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 你这是怎么估算滴？
: 就是按照跌下来的速度恢复，2007-2009， 2009-2011，最早也要2011年价格才能触底。
|
h****r
发帖数: 2056 | 8 treat the real data 03-07 as glitch is a bold idea. Unfortunately it is a
little hard to do so.
Gleaspan tried to save the economy from dotcom bubble by created a house
bubble , 03-07 is the main street + wall street cooperative action. It
caused and will continue cause large impact to the ongoing course of global
economy movement.
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: but why not follow the solid purple line? and treat the real data 03-07 as
: glitch?
:
: 底。
|
g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 9 we have followed dotted line to 2009, how can we jump back to solid line?
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: but why not follow the solid purple line? and treat the real data 03-07 as
: glitch?
:
: 底。
|
C***r
发帖数: 844 | 10 it's unlikely to follow the solid line, but there is also a lot of
uncertainty in terms of timing (x coordinate) along the dotted line.
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: we have followed dotted line to 2009, how can we jump back to solid line?
|
g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 11 The problem is that the first derivative is continuous always. It is hard to
imagine it will jump from one point to another point. The slope (second
derivative) to drop to -20% level is the record sharp already. I do not
believe it will make a new record for uprising slope back to 0%.
【在 C***r 的大作中提到】
: it's unlikely to follow the solid line, but there is also a lot of
: uncertainty in terms of timing (x coordinate) along the dotted line.
|
C***r
发帖数: 844 | 12 in extrordinary times such as the great depression and this, extrordinary
things can happen. The slope can get close to infinite.
to
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: The problem is that the first derivative is continuous always. It is hard to
: imagine it will jump from one point to another point. The slope (second
: derivative) to drop to -20% level is the record sharp already. I do not
: believe it will make a new record for uprising slope back to 0%.
|
