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_GoldenrainClub版 - [zz] House Prices Will Crash Right Through Fair Value and Bottom Down 50%
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: prices话题: fair话题: value话题: house话题: housing
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http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/261078/House-Price
House Prices Will Crash Right Through Fair Value and Bottom Down 50%
Posted Jun 09, 2009 02:14pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession,
Banking, Housing
Related: xlf, dia, spy, tol, hd
From The Business Insider, June 9, 2009:
House prices are finally approaching fair value. Unfortunately, unless the
housing bubble behaves differently than almost every bubble before it, house
prices will now crash right through fair value and stay below it for a
number of years.
When prices do finally bottom, moreover, they aren't likely to recover
quickly.
Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue of T2 Partners have put together an
excellent presentation on the housing and mortgage markets. It's embedded
here.
Here's Whitney and Glenn's take on the future of house prices:
We think housing prices will reach fair value/trend line, down 40% from the
peak based on the S&P/Case-Shiller national (not 20-city) index, which
implies a 5-10% further decline from where prices where as of the end of Q1
2009. It’s almost certain that prices will reach these levels.
* The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through
the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very
likely.
In the long-term, housing prices will likely settle around fair value, but
in the short-term prices will be driven both by psychology as well as supply
and demand. The trends in both are very unfavorable.
* Regarding the former, national home prices have declined for 33
consecutive months since their peak in July 2006 through April 2009 and
there’s no end in sight, so this makes buyers reluctant – even when the
price appears cheap – and sellers desperate.
* Regarding the latter, there is a huge mismatch between supply and
demand, due largely to the tsunami of foreclosures. In March 2009,
distressed sales accounted for just over 50% of all existing home sales
nationwide – and more than 57% in California. In addition, the “shadow”
inventory of foreclosed homes already likely exceeds one year and there will
be millions more foreclosures over the next few years, creating a large
overhang of excess supply that will likely cause prices to overshoot on the
downside, as they are already doing in California.
* Therefore, we expect housing prices to decline 45-50% from the peak,
bottoming in mid-2010.
* We are also quite certain that wherever prices bottom, there will be
no quick rebound
* There’s too much inventory to work off quickly, especially in light
of the millions of foreclosures over the next few years
* While foreclosure sales are booming in many areas, regular sales by
homeowners have plunged, in part because people usually can’t sell when
they’re underwater on their mortgage and in part due to human psychology:
people naturally anchor on the price they paid or what something was worth
in the past and are reluctant to sell below this level. We suspect that
there are millions of homeowners like this who will emerge as sellers at the
first sign of a rebound in home prices
* Finally, we don’t think the economy is likely to provide a tailwind,
as we expect it to contract the rest of 2009, stagnate in 2010, and only
then grow tepidly for some time thereafter.
1 (共1页)
相关主题
房价还要跌多少?大概40000亿美元。6-5 Beware Real Estate False Bottoms (zz)
除 非房价停止下跌,否则美国经济就难以东山再起 (花街日报)同一个数据,不同的解读,2009-11 case-shiller housing index
case-shiller home price rose Q to QCase-Shiller: Home Prices Beginning to Fall Again in the Bay Area
Robert Shiller's Forecast on HousingUS foreclosures up 24 percent in 1st quarter
湾区房市的最新、最权威的分析文章 (zz)barrons: No Bottom in Housing
From Redfin...Last month it was pessimistic, this month it seems not.(ZZHome Loan Delinquencies Double on Prime Loans; Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 3rd Straight Month
买房的最佳时机就是现在, 2011夏天 (转载)numbers about foreclosure. (ZZ)
房价的跌速终于停止了创新记录,这就叫底。呵呵。(ZT AP)看图问问题,有趣现象:DC两侧Foreclosure的房子分布很不平均
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: prices话题: fair话题: value话题: house话题: housing