c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 1 发信人: chichazi (吃叉子), 信区: GunsAndGears
标 题: 双城记--拥枪和禁枪的选择
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 30 10:51:30 2012, 美东)
请大家记住两个地名：Morton Grove, IL 和 Kennessaw, GA.
前者是米国第一个发布禁枪令的城市，后者为此针锋相对规定本城居民若无枪者则违法。
从1981开始，到2008，前者废除了禁枪令。
这期间，二者的犯罪率都很低，前者的代价表面上看估计警察费用是比较高的。
anecdote: 当年前者的市政府关着门准备通过禁枪令时，居民群情激愤聚在门外抗议，
还有第三帝国集中营的幸存者指着手臂上被纳粹刺的号码给大家看。（旁边的skokie是
米国最大的犹太人居住区，kevin spacey的usual suspects就发生于此。） | c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 2 大家听到禁枪的言论，一定要支持，摆出这个事实来支持，禁枪的效果那是立竿见影，
相当于罪犯的集结号，呵呵。
Morton Grove’s relatively low crime rate went up by over 15% immediately
after enactment of the ban (12% more than surrounding areas) and has held
pretty steady at just a tad below the national average ever since. There
has been no statistical indication of the handgun ban having any positive
effect.
面对黑豹党，禁枪者立刻装聋作哑，所以大家要多提黑豹党。 | c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 3 http://firearmscoalition.org/index.php?option=com_content&do_pd
Kennesaw Revisited
By Jeff Knox
(October 7, 2008) In 1981, Morton Grove, Illinois became the first town in
the U.S. to pass a flat out ban on the possession of handguns within the
town limits by anyone except police and active duty military during the
performance of their official duties. In response, the town of Kennesaw,
Georgia passed a gun law of their own in March of 1982. The Kennesaw law
was almost the exact opposite to the Morton Grove ordinance. Rather than
banning handgun possession, Kennesaw required every head-of-household to
keep at least one firearm and appropriate ammunition in their home – with
exemptions for those who had religious or philosophical objections to
maintaining or using weapons. In other words, gun ownership was mandatory
except for people who didn’t want to own a gun.
While Morton Grove became an instant media darling, Kennesaw became a pariah
and a punch line. Pundits and “reporters” made jokes and wild
predictions about the blood that would soon run in the streets of the small
town a few miles North of Atlanta. The derision can still be heard
occasionally from a late-night talk show host or a reflective news anchor,
but all of the predictions of the “Wild West” and shootouts over fender-
benders, simply didn’t pan out. Of course this lack of disaster was simply
ignored by most in the media as were the actual results of this little
comparative experiment.
Kennesaw and Morton Grove weren’t really a fair comparison when the
experiment started. Kennesaw was pretty rural while Morton Grove was
solidly suburban. Kennesaw had a population of only about 5500 while Morton
Grove was closer to 23,000. And Kennesaw had a per capita crime rate
significantly higher than the national average while Morton Grove enjoyed a
relatively low crime rate. The fact is, Kennesaw was at a marked
disadvantage from the beginning of this comparison. In the nearly three
decades since these laws went into effect, Kennesaw’s disadvantage has
grown rather than shrunk. While Morton Grove has remained at a fairly
steady population, Kennesaw’s population has boomed to take a slight lead.
While Morton Grove’s residents are slightly older than the national
average, Kennesaw’s are significantly younger. Both towns are
predominantly White, but Kennesaw has more Blacks and Hispanics while Morton
Grove’s minority population is predominantly Asian. Statistically, Asian
populations have the lowest crime rates of any minority while Blacks and
Hispanics have the highest crime rates in the nation.
With all of these disadvantages working against Kennesaw, how did the two
communities actually fare?
Morton Grove’s relatively low crime rate went up by over 15% immediately
after enactment of the ban (12% more than surrounding areas) and has held
pretty steady at just a tad below the national average ever since. There
has been no statistical indication of the handgun ban having any positive
effect.
Kennesaw is a different story though. In 1982, the year the firearms
requirement was enacted, Kennesaw realized a 74% reduction in crime against
persons over the previous year. That rate then dropped 45% between 1982 and
1983. In fairness, statistics showing percentage increases or decreases in
crime can be very misleading especially when crime numbers and the
population are both low to begin with.
The statistics that are really telling are per capita comparisons between
municipal, county, regional, and national averages. When a city’s crime
rate is trending parallel to the national and/or regional crime rates (
whether higher or lower) and then deviates dramatically from those averages
after a new law is passed, that is a strong indication that the new law is
having an impact.
While Morton Grove’s per capita crime rate took a dramatic jump, deviating
substantially from regional and national averages, right after passage of
their gun ban, Kennesaw’s crime rate did the opposite in an even more
dramatic way. After Kennesaw’s gun law was enacted crime dropped
dramatically – much faster than federal, state, or local trends – and
leveled out well below national averages. In spite of a population increase
from 5000 to almost 30,000 during the same period, Kennesaw’s crime rates
remain significantly lower than national or area averages. And the people
of Kennesaw didn’t have to use their mandated firearms to affect this
dramatic change. The simple knowledge on the part of criminals that if they
worked in Kennesaw they were choosing to work with an armed prospective
victim pool was enough to convince them not to pursue their chosen
professions there.
After the enactment of the firearms mandate in 1982, it took 15 years before
there was a murder committed with a firearm in the town. As I recall, it
was the result of two visitors who got into an argument in their motel room.
One was insisting that a .25 automatic could not penetrate thick chest
muscles like his and the other fellow decided to settle the argument and
proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they were both idiots.
After 25 years, Kennesaw and Morton Grove stand out as proof positive that
the only gun control laws with any hope of reducing crime are laws which
empower the law-abiding people rather than disarming them. But remember how
much news coverage was given to this story last March? Expect more of that
deafening silence for the 26th anniversary next March.
Permission to reprint or post this article in its entirety for non-
commercial purposes is hereby granted provided this credit is included.
Text is available at www.FirearmsCoalition.org. To receive The Firearms
Coalition’s bi-monthly newsletter, The Hard Corps Report, write to PO Box
3313, Manassas, VA 20108.
©Copyright 2008 Neal Knox Associates |
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