D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 1 Both did poorly last year. By no means should any one take these seriously.
But just for the fun of it, predictions for 2014 are:
Kass:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12210901/1/doug-kass-15-surprise
Surprise No. 1: Slowing global economic growth and fears of stagflation
emerge.
Surprise No. 2: Corporate profits disappoint.
Surprise No. 3: Stock prices and P/E multiples decline.
Surprise No. 4: Bonds outperform stocks.
Surprise No. 5: A number of major surprises affect individual stocks and
sectors.
Surprise No. 6: Volkswagen AG acquires Tesla Motors.
Surprise No. 7: Twitter's shares fall by 70% as a disruptive competitor
appears.
Surprise No. 8: Buffett names successor.
Surprise No. 9: Bitcoin becomes a roller coaster.
Surprise No. 10: The Republican Party gains control of the Senate and
maintains control of the House.
Surprise No. 11: Hillary Clinton bows out as a presidential candidate.
Surprise No. 12: Social unrest and riots appear in the U.S.
Surprise No. 13: Africa becomes a new hotbed of turmoil and South Africa
precipitates an emerging debt crisis.
Surprise No. 14: The next big thing? A marijuana IPO rises by more than 400%
on its first day of trading.
Surprise No. 15: An escalation of friction between China and Japan hints at
war-like behavior between the two countries.
Wien
http://www.blackstone.com/news-views/press-releases/details/byr
1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst
of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with
euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then
follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 approaches a
20% total return by year end.
2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3%
and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-
event.
3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the
dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120
yen.
4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was
right when he said that deficits don’t matter. He continues his
aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000
early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population
and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market
suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.
5. China’s Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the
consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth
rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another
disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best
for the country in the long run.
6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong
leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in
significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail
to follow their performance.
7. In spite of increased U.S. production the price of West Texas
Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues
to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.
8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented
economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in
agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50
and soybeans to $16.00.
9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation
causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term
rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a
negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.
10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer
access problems are significantly diminished and younger people begin
signing up. Obama's approval rating rises and in the November elections the
Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the
House |
|
