D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 1 20 days left for the yr. SP500 is 1790 as of now.
Firm / S&P 500 Target / Missed it by this much (%, as of 12.10.2013)
Wells Fargo / 1,390 / 29.7%
UBS / 1,425 / 26.5%
Morgan Stanley / 1,434 / 25.7%
Deutsche Bank / 1,500 / 20.2%
Barclays / 1,525 / 18.2%
Credit Suisse / 1,550 / 16.3%
HSBC / 1,560 / 15.6%
Jefferies / 1,565 / 15.2%
Goldman Sachs / 1,575 / 14.5%
BMO Capital / 1,575 / 14.5%
JP Morgan / 1,580 / 14.1%
Oppenheimer / 1,585 / 13.8%
BofA Merrill Lynch / 1,600 / 12.7%
Citi / 1,615 / 11.6%
AVERAGE / 1,534 / 17.5%
MEDIAN / 1,560 / 15.6%
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/12/why-do-forecasters-keep-fo | D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 2 Every yr, the famous Byron Wien writes about 10 surprises that he predict to
happen. Meanwhile, Doug Kass, a hedge fund manager who shorts stocks, does
the same thing. Their predictions do not limit to market, but cover
politics also. One is not to take their predictions seriously. But I do
enjoy reading them very much, whether they are right or wrong.
This yr, Wien got it so wrong. For example, he predicted Iran gains nuclear
capability; SP500 decline below 1300; Crude falls to $70 while gold rises to
1900; see here
http://www.businessinsider.com/byron-wiens-10-surprises-for-201
Kass did no better . He predicted that the 10yr remains range bound btw 1.5-
2; he was as bearish about XLF as Wien; he also predicted a black swan
event that moves market. However he predicted the discovery of signs of life
on Mars. Latest issue of Science just published a series of papers showing
just that, sort of.http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/mission/science/researchpapers/
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11805510/1/doug-kass-15-surprise
To be fair, both of them did much better the previous year. I can't wait to
read their predictions for 2014. |
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