d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 1 我自己的退休投资目标，就像其他人的一样，是希望有足够的钱，使我可以享受退休生
活。 许多投资专家推荐在退休后，每年从退休账户中提取4%，这样可以保证退休账户
的钱不会很快被花光。一般来说，取出来的钱是卖掉部分投资换来的，一般还要根据每
年的通货膨胀来调整。然而，最近的金融风暴使很多人看到当退休人卖出投资的时候，
市场可能在最低点，这使得退休资金很快就会消耗一空。
GMO的James Montier指出，美国股市从1871年以来，投资在一年的时间里，近80％的回
报是通过股票价格波动产生的。然而，随着时间跨度的延长，股票的“基本原则”对投
资回报发挥日益重要的作用，例如，投资如果持有5年，股息及股息增长占投资回报的
80％。
下图显示股息不同时期对投资总回报的作用。平均而言，长期来看，股息占了总收益的
90％。
作为股息的投资者，我的目标是让我的股息退休投资组合可以为我退休后提供可持续的
收入来源。通过拥有一个多样化的资产组合，我的投资可以确保即使某一个经济领域出
现了问题，也不会对我的退休生活产生持久的影响。
我的最终目标是在退休后，完全依靠投资的股息收入来维持我的支出。相比之下，如果
依靠每年卖出4%的投资来维持退休生活支出，就有可能因为股市下跌，使得总投资变卖
的速度加快，而不能维持长久的退休支出。只提取股息收入而不变卖投资本金，我不仅
可以维持我的退休生活，而且还可以使股息随着时间的延续而增长。
那么如何选择股息股票，来实现我的退休目标呢？我觉得这是一个永远值得我学习的方
向。下面是我选择股息股票的一些原则：
* 股息率：股息率不能太低，如果太低，就需要很长时间的增长才能有足够的股息
收入。
* 股息增长历史：没有公司可以保证会永远派股息，更不用说公司会保证股息会增
长。然而，如果一个公司有很长的股息增长历史，至少可以说明如果没有意外，该公司
在未来会继续股息增长。此外股息是否增长可以用来鉴定是不是该卖出该股票，如果一
个经常涨股息的股票突然不涨了，或者削减了股息，这就是一个要卖出的信号。
* 合理的股价：这个和股息率相关。如果一个股票的价格高出了其合理股价很多，
那么高价投资一个好的公司可能是一个坏的投资选择。所以，在股票合理的价格点入市
是很重要的。
* 股息来源：股票的股息是从哪里来的？这家公司的纯收入是否足以支付至少2倍
的股息？许多会计技巧可以公司的报表很好看，但是如果公司需要每个季度都派息，那
么这些技巧不能永远持续下去。
* 竞争优势和市场需求：公司与其竞争者比，应具有很强的竞争优势，并且其所提
供的产品和服务有很好的市场需求。
我的股息股票投资组合可以在这里找到。根据我的计算，如果没有大的意外，在我退休
的时候，我可以完全依靠投资的股息收入来维持我的支出。
全文在
http://cn.dividendengineer.com/?p=224 | D*******a
发帖数: 3688 | 2 also need to consider taxation
【在 d*****r 的大作中提到】
: 我自己的退休投资目标，就像其他人的一样，是希望有足够的钱，使我可以享受退休生
: 活。 许多投资专家推荐在退休后，每年从退休账户中提取4%，这样可以保证退休账户
: 的钱不会很快被花光。一般来说，取出来的钱是卖掉部分投资换来的，一般还要根据每
: 年的通货膨胀来调整。然而，最近的金融风暴使很多人看到当退休人卖出投资的时候，
: 市场可能在最低点，这使得退休资金很快就会消耗一空。
: GMO的James Montier指出，美国股市从1871年以来，投资在一年的时间里，近80％的回
: 报是通过股票价格波动产生的。然而，随着时间跨度的延长，股票的“基本原则”对投
: 资回报发挥日益重要的作用，例如，投资如果持有5年，股息及股息增长占投资回报的
: 80％。
: 下图显示股息不同时期对投资总回报的作用。平均而言，长期来看，股息占了总收益的
| d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 3 Yes, but if you take advantage of tax deferred accounts, you have one less
thing to bite out of your savings.
【在 D*******a 的大作中提到】
: also need to consider taxation
| c*v
发帖数: 93 | 4 看了一下楼主的组合，觉得挺好，很稳健。写的不错，楼主继续努力。我也看过GMO的
这篇文章，没有仔细研究，不过总觉得这个90%的结论有些可疑，一般的结论好像是说
50%左右的。 | t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 5 说的容易，做着难。
1. tax sheltered account 有上限，很多钱还是要进入 taxable account
2. tax sheltered account 里面 401k, 529 的投资选择都很有限, 仅仅 ira 可以用
您的办法
3. ira 一个人一年最多放5000两银子，也折腾不出多大动静。 当然 roth ira 还是要
放的。
4. 您可能还有 rollover ira, 这不是每个人都有。即使有，也应该rollover回 403b
里去，这样可以每年 roth conversion
【在 d*****r 的大作中提到】
: Yes, but if you take advantage of tax deferred accounts, you have one less
: thing to bite out of your savings.
| d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 6 For Rollover IRA, I do not think you HAVE to roll over to another 403B/401K.
You can roll over to any other rollover ira so that you have more freedom
to manage your account.
I understand you have rolled over to another 403B. Correct me if I am wrong, as
I know a little about 403b.
I have rolled over two 401K's from my previous employers to one rollover ira
so that I can manager them together.
403b
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 说的容易，做着难。
: 1. tax sheltered account 有上限，很多钱还是要进入 taxable account
: 2. tax sheltered account 里面 401k, 529 的投资选择都很有限, 仅仅 ira 可以用
: 您的办法
: 3. ira 一个人一年最多放5000两银子，也折腾不出多大动静。 当然 roth ira 还是要
: 放的。
: 4. 您可能还有 rollover ira, 这不是每个人都有。即使有，也应该rollover回 403b
: 里去，这样可以每年 roth conversion
| S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 7 For retirees income is more important than total return, and it may not be
the case for the accumulators like us. | d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 8 ira 两个人（夫妇）一年就可以放10,000两银子，10年就100，000，相当不少了 :-)
403b
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 说的容易，做着难。
: 1. tax sheltered account 有上限，很多钱还是要进入 taxable account
: 2. tax sheltered account 里面 401k, 529 的投资选择都很有限, 仅仅 ira 可以用
: 您的办法
: 3. ira 一个人一年最多放5000两银子，也折腾不出多大动静。 当然 roth ira 还是要
: 放的。
: 4. 您可能还有 rollover ira, 这不是每个人都有。即使有，也应该rollover回 403b
: 里去，这样可以每年 roth conversion
| t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 9 (1) 403b works very similar as 401k
(2) the only reason I put "rollover ira" back to 403b is for roth conversion
every year
(3) as your said in another post, $10000 roth ira contribution (2 person) is
not trivial. I agree.
In this sense, do you invest Roth IRA every year?
401K.
wrong, as
ira
以用
是要
【在 d*****r 的大作中提到】
: For Rollover IRA, I do not think you HAVE to roll over to another 403B/401K.
: You can roll over to any other rollover ira so that you have more freedom
: to manage your account.
: I understand you have rolled over to another 403B. Correct me if I am wrong, as
: I know a little about 403b.
: I have rolled over two 401K's from my previous employers to one rollover ira
: so that I can manager them together.
:
: 403b
| c*v
发帖数: 93 | 10 "(2) the only reason I put "rollover ira" back to 403b is for roth
conversion
every year"
转到ira里也可以今后再转成roth吧，不行吗？ | | | d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 11 (2) You can still do roth conversion if the money is in a rollover ira.
(3) Yes, We invest in Roth IRA every year.
conversion
is
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: (1) 403b works very similar as 401k
: (2) the only reason I put "rollover ira" back to 403b is for roth conversion
: every year
: (3) as your said in another post, $10000 roth ira contribution (2 person) is
: not trivial. I agree.
: In this sense, do you invest Roth IRA every year?
:
: 401K.
: wrong, as
: ira
| t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 12 my "rollover IRA" is pre-tax money, therefore, have to pay tax if converted
to roth IRA
So, I don't want to convert them.
【在 c*v 的大作中提到】
: "(2) the only reason I put "rollover ira" back to 403b is for roth
: conversion
: every year"
: 转到ira里也可以今后再转成roth吧，不行吗？
| t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 13
my "rollover ira" is pre-tax money. it enters my cost basis at roth
conversion (increasing my tax due).
Therefore, I have to hide the "rollover ira" back into 403b.
Now, we can contribute to non-deductible ira, and immediately convert it
into roth IRA every year.
Good move.
)
【在 d*****r 的大作中提到】
: (2) You can still do roth conversion if the money is in a rollover ira.
: (3) Yes, We invest in Roth IRA every year.
:
: conversion
: is
| d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 14 I still do not get why have to put your money back into 403b. Money in roll
over ira is pre-taxed, you do not need to pay tax when rolling money from a
401k to this ira. It is not a taxable event.
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: my "rollover IRA" is pre-tax money, therefore, have to pay tax if converted
: to roth IRA
: So, I don't want to convert them.
| l******n
发帖数: 641 | 15 not sure what to hide here, from 403b to roth?
any diff for ira to roth?
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: my "rollover IRA" is pre-tax money, therefore, have to pay tax if converted
: to roth IRA
: So, I don't want to convert them.
| t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 16 you are right. but my "rollover IRA" is pre-tax money. It comes from a
401K (a traditional 401K, not a roth 401K). Per IRS rules, at ROTH
conversion, I have to look at all Non-ROTH IRAs.
For example,
(1) I have $10000 rollover IRA, which is pre-tax money (my cost basis is 0,
because I didn't pay tax on it yet)
(2) Today, I contribute $5000 non-deductible IRA (my cost basis is $5000,
because I already paid tax on it)
(3) Tomorrow, I will convert this non-deductible IRA into ROTH IRA
How much tax will I owe for this $5000 ROTH conversion?
It will be $5000 * 0.667 * My_TAX_RATE.
What is the 0.667?
It's the ratio of "pre-tax" money in my Non-ROTH IRAs.
How is the 0.667 computed?
At the moment of conversion, I'll have totally $15000 in Non-ROTH IRAs, and
my
cost basis is $5000 (I already paid tax on $5000). Therefore, the ratio of
"pre-tax" money in my Non-ROTH IRAs = $10000/$15000 = 0.667.
Taken together, I have to pay a lot of tax.
Alternatively, I "hide" the rollover IRA back into 403b.
At the moment of conversion, I have totally $5000 in Non-ROTH IRAS, and my
cost basis if $5000.
The ratio of "pre-tax" money in my Non-Roth IRAs = 0/$5000 = 0. I will not
pay tax, and complete the ROTH conversion cleanly.
In summary, I did this all because we cannot directly contribute into ROTH
IRAs. Otherwise, life is simpler.
roll
a
【在 d*****r 的大作中提到】
: I still do not get why have to put your money back into 403b. Money in roll
: over ira is pre-taxed, you do not need to pay tax when rolling money from a
: 401k to this ira. It is not a taxable event.
| d*****r
发帖数: 273 | 17 Wow, it is complicated and I am still trying to get around it. Good luck!
Another way to do this is to open separate accounts with different purposes. At this moment, I have quite a few rollover and roth accounts so that I can do rollover and roth conversion, plus possible re-characterization later. All bases are clean and I do not need to calculate cost basis, as I usually do all-or-none with each account.
,
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: you are right. but my "rollover IRA" is pre-tax money. It comes from a
: 401K (a traditional 401K, not a roth 401K). Per IRS rules, at ROTH
: conversion, I have to look at all Non-ROTH IRAs.
: For example,
: (1) I have $10000 rollover IRA, which is pre-tax money (my cost basis is 0,
: because I didn't pay tax on it yet)
: (2) Today, I contribute $5000 non-deductible IRA (my cost basis is $5000,
: because I already paid tax on it)
: (3) Tomorrow, I will convert this non-deductible IRA into ROTH IRA
: How much tax will I owe for this $5000 ROTH conversion?
| D******y
发帖数: 3780 | 18 why don't you just contribute $5000 after-tax into ROTH IRA?
,
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: you are right. but my "rollover IRA" is pre-tax money. It comes from a
: 401K (a traditional 401K, not a roth 401K). Per IRS rules, at ROTH
: conversion, I have to look at all Non-ROTH IRAs.
: For example,
: (1) I have $10000 rollover IRA, which is pre-tax money (my cost basis is 0,
: because I didn't pay tax on it yet)
: (2) Today, I contribute $5000 non-deductible IRA (my cost basis is $5000,
: because I already paid tax on it)
: (3) Tomorrow, I will convert this non-deductible IRA into ROTH IRA
: How much tax will I owe for this $5000 ROTH conversion?
| t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 19 Eligibility to contribute to a Roth IRA phases out at certain income limits.
0
,
【在 D******y 的大作中提到】
: why don't you just contribute $5000 after-tax into ROTH IRA?
:
: ,
| f**********8
发帖数: 2276 | | s**********d
发帖数: 36899 | 21 好多钱啊您。我们能放满tax sheltered就已经很满足了。
别的万一有剩就吃掉了。
403b
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 说的容易，做着难。
: 1. tax sheltered account 有上限，很多钱还是要进入 taxable account
: 2. tax sheltered account 里面 401k, 529 的投资选择都很有限, 仅仅 ira 可以用
: 您的办法
: 3. ira 一个人一年最多放5000两银子，也折腾不出多大动静。 当然 roth ira 还是要
: 放的。
: 4. 您可能还有 rollover ira, 这不是每个人都有。即使有，也应该rollover回 403b
: 里去，这样可以每年 roth conversion
| j********w
发帖数: 345 | |
|
