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发帖数: 1972 | 1 Prediction / Calculation Using Trackitt Model
Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007 (20% Chance of 01-AUG-2007)
EB2 India Calculation Details
Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumulative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 30126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 32485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 34871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 37200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 39389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 42319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 47880
- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly
figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory. By this time we should assume that 3
months worth of cap for India and China has been consumed. So ~ 1400 Numbers
are consumed.
- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I
inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to
the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative
guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have
happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There
are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated
as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K
porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.
- The starting offset for India assumes 6K PD Porting + 700 Cases Approved +
500 old cases not approved = 7200. For China it Assumes 700 Cases Approved
+ 100 older cases. The total offset at the start is 8000. We should assume
the porting as part of the offset as we will not se any movement till Jul.
Looks like porting is only happening for India.
- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor
approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are
by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially
from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500
lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the
inventory is the baseline.
- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative
sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out
that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of
SOFAD and see the resting point.
- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS
Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K
EB2 ROW Calculation from Trackitt
Whole of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 513 + 63 + 5 + 34 = 615
Whole of FY 2009 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 720 + 80 + 7 + 43 = 850
So 2010 ROW consumption should be (615/850) * (40-5.5) = 25K.
2010 ROW SOFAD = 43.5 - 25 - 6 = 12.5K
Actual 2010 SOFAD from EB2 ROW was 9.5K so we should have a effectiveness
factor which is ~ 75%.
Now
7 Months of FY 2011 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 273 + 32 + 2 + 27 = 334
7 Months of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 310 + 41 + 3 + 21 = 375
Current Rate = 89%.
Now EB2 ROW SOFAD would be
EB2 ROW + M + P consumption 2010 = 43.5 -9.5 -6 = 28K.
EB2 ROW SOFAD this year = 40-5.5- (89/100 * 28) = 9.5K
Multiplying with the effectiveness factor of 75% this would be 7K.
EB1 Calculation from Trackitt
EB1-A + EB1-B + EB1-C
2009 - 98 + 191 + 267 = 556
2010 - 101 + 158 + 123 = 382
The Consumption for EB1 for 2009 and 2010 for EB1 was ~ 41K, in 2009 EB1 got
spillover from EB5 of 1K whereas in 2010 the cap was higher and EB1
consumed 41K.
So effectiveness factor = 382 / 556 = 68%.
7 Months of FY 2010 - 74 + 123 + 89 = 286
7 Months of FY 2011 - 36 + 48 + 44 = 128
Now the projected consumption for EB1 is (128/286) * 41.5K ~ 18573.
However we should extrapolate this by the effectiveness factor 18573 * 100 /
68 = 27300.
This gives a projected fall down of 40K - 27.3K ~ 12.5K which is very
similar to the 12K figure that has been in the news. If we do not apply the
effectiveness factor to EB1 then will receive ~22K from EB1 this can
actually help to bring us close to the 01-Aug-2007 mark, however to have a
conservative calculatuion lets move forward with 12K.
Now EB5 I believe will remain fairly stable at 8K and the I/C regular cap
will provide is with 5.5K as expected.
So the effective SOFAD expected this year is 7+ 12.5 + 8 = 5.5 = 33K.
If we extrapolate the 33K SOFAD onto the table above then the expected PD
movement will be around 15th Feb 2007. There maybe some buffer around this
date so the range will be between 01-FEB-2007 and 01-APR-2007. There is a 20
% chance that the dates may move to 01-AUG 2007 in case EB1 provides some
extra spillover i.e. if it is really 12K * 2 = 24K and we disregard PWMB
cases Virtual demand which will appear only when the dates move to that
point) otherwise crossing this mark looks difficult this year. | j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 2 5月的时候我们还在笑老印，现在看来老印当时的预测还是蛮准的。当时他们预测本年
度最终EB2到 FEB To APR 2007。结果到4/15/07。 |
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