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EB23版 - 看来还没有更新的EB-485 inventory 对今年VB走势很重要(ZT)
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简析五月VB新料技术问题, downgrade 140 pending9个月了
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb话题: employment话题: visa话题: uscis话题: second
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1 (共1页)
d******8
发帖数: 1972
1
05/13/2011: State Department Employment-Based Visa Demand Statistics Used to
Determine June 2011 Visa Bulletin for EB Categories
Readers must have noticed that we highlighted in the yesterday's reporting
of the State Department predictions for the coming months. As noted in the
prediction, the EB-2 visa cut-off date for India will depend on the volume
of EB-2 visa numbers by Chinese and Indians, mostly Indians, between January
and March or later statistics of USCIS in its EB-485 inventory for EB-2
category for all countries, India, and China. The USCIS has yet to release
the updated EB-485 inventory, which will give a valuable information to
figure out the EB-2 visa cut-off date patterns post June 2011, especially
July and August 2011 visa cut-off dates. The USCIS EB-485 inventory data is
crucial in determination of the volume of EB visa number demands because,
unlike family-based immigration visa numbers which are heavily demanded by
the overseas visa posts (consulates) rather than USCIS, in the employment-
based immigration cases, majority (over 80%) of visa numbers are demanded by
I-485 applications within the United States as most of the EB-immigrants
apply for the green cards through the USCIS in the United States rather than
American consulates abroad. We will post the USCIS updated EB-485 inventory
statistics as soon as they are made available. Please stay tuned.
For now, the posted State Department statistics on EB visa number demand
that was used for June 2011 Visa Bulletin will give some help for readers to
understand how it works.
"As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration
and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “
otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment
Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because
India had reached its Employment Second annual limit. "
It is clear that EB2I absorbed all 2,800 quota in the first 7 months! If we
look at 10-01-2010 inventory, 01-05-2011 inventory there isn't much change (
they might have added few district office cases). So on an average they
approved about 400 EB2I porting cases per month.
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their
status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid
forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in
May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the
determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this
demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal;
this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the
use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The
same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second
preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused
” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of
the applicant’s chargeability. "
As we can see porting demand is averaging about 400 per month for the first
two quarters of FY2011(could have been higher in the first two months). When
DOS/USCIS say heavy demand of porting it is only few hundreds(or less than
1% of EB3I pending between May 2002 and May 2006)
Combining Q1&Q2 PERM data for FY2011 did not show any drastic increase in
filings, and DOS indicated, at least for the last few weeks, the "porting"
demand is minimal. Even if we assume DOS/USCIS aggressive numbers (400 per
month) for the remainder of the year( July-Sept) it will only be about 1 -1.
5k which is a very small number compared to all SOFAD they want to utilize
in the final quarter.
d******8
发帖数: 1972
2
TeddyKoochu
Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of
movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We
all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to
move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.
A****S
发帖数: 978
3
Thanks for sharing!
Every time I found your post very useful!

to
January

【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: 05/13/2011: State Department Employment-Based Visa Demand Statistics Used to
: Determine June 2011 Visa Bulletin for EB Categories
: Readers must have noticed that we highlighted in the yesterday's reporting
: of the State Department predictions for the coming months. As noted in the
: prediction, the EB-2 visa cut-off date for India will depend on the volume
: of EB-2 visa numbers by Chinese and Indians, mostly Indians, between January
: and March or later statistics of USCIS in its EB-485 inventory for EB-2
: category for all countries, India, and China. The USCIS has yet to release
: the updated EB-485 inventory, which will give a valuable information to
: figure out the EB-2 visa cut-off date patterns post June 2011, especially

w**t
发帖数: 893
4
This makes sense. Actually several weeks ago. There was a calculation about
the porting monthly rate, which is basically consitent with this number.
However, 400/month is still seems more than the calculation, which is about
275/month.
I think 400/month is still higher than it actually be due to the inaccuracy
of the data from USCIS.

to
January

【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: 05/13/2011: State Department Employment-Based Visa Demand Statistics Used to
: Determine June 2011 Visa Bulletin for EB Categories
: Readers must have noticed that we highlighted in the yesterday's reporting
: of the State Department predictions for the coming months. As noted in the
: prediction, the EB-2 visa cut-off date for India will depend on the volume
: of EB-2 visa numbers by Chinese and Indians, mostly Indians, between January
: and March or later statistics of USCIS in its EB-485 inventory for EB-2
: category for all countries, India, and China. The USCIS has yet to release
: the updated EB-485 inventory, which will give a valuable information to
: figure out the EB-2 visa cut-off date patterns post June 2011, especially

d******e
发帖数: 351
5
"about 1 -1.5k which is a very small number compared to all SOFAD they want
to utilize in the final quarter. "
如果 1.5K 都是VERY SMALL NUMBER,那这个数至少得上万了。
e******7
发帖数: 144
6
Thanks.

to
January

【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: 05/13/2011: State Department Employment-Based Visa Demand Statistics Used to
: Determine June 2011 Visa Bulletin for EB Categories
: Readers must have noticed that we highlighted in the yesterday's reporting
: of the State Department predictions for the coming months. As noted in the
: prediction, the EB-2 visa cut-off date for India will depend on the volume
: of EB-2 visa numbers by Chinese and Indians, mostly Indians, between January
: and March or later statistics of USCIS in its EB-485 inventory for EB-2
: category for all countries, India, and China. The USCIS has yet to release
: the updated EB-485 inventory, which will give a valuable information to
: figure out the EB-2 visa cut-off date patterns post June 2011, especially

1 (共1页)
进入EB23版参与讨论
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技术问题, downgrade 140 pending9个月了看看VB 的解释,大家能不能预测下月趋势
Latest Update from IndiansLatest Prediction based on Jan 2011 Inventory from IV
Worst case so far.信不信由你:老印最新预测
2009年9月底的pd一年内有戏吗简析五月VB新料
乐观点,也许真能实现 EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather CalculatiWhy China can not reached its limit at the same time as India????? Totally Radiculous!!!
奥本发话了,EB2I 10月排期不退JUN VB out, 10/15/2006
老印又在做一个更大梦EB2 India Predictions for Q4 2011 and 2012
!!!!一个在印度人移民论坛上异常火爆的帖子!!!一个老印的VB预测
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb话题: employment话题: visa话题: uscis话题: second