N*********L
发帖数: 517 | 1 政府公关组ERIC JI通过FOIA的渠道，已经获取２０１１年财政年度职业移民审批数据
，上半年截止到４月３０日，职业移民总计审批发放52，475个绿卡名额。 同时公关组
志愿者和奥本海默的沟通中，截止昨天获知 , 职业已经审批了１２１，０００个绿卡
名额。
NIU数据和分析志愿者将会对从FOIA获得的２０１１年上半年每月批准数据做进一步分
析，期待他们的后续讨论和分析。
此次数据的进展的关键是认识了USCIS处理FOIA的关键人士，建立起沟通渠道，通过
FOIA被证明是一条可行的办法获取数据。 现在的问题是，很快志愿者要离开组织，此
次FOIA是４月份ERIC JI提出的（QUK，JWE律师信并行的项目），有三个月的时滞。迫
切需要新人加入NIU，利用NIU的平台和已有的沟通渠道，继续为自己为大家服务。
感谢大家支持NIU！！！
数据的疑点
１.５２475不包括CP。
２.１２１０００未明确截止日期。 |
E**********7
发帖数: 495 | 2 感谢数据。这个对于预测9月排期非常重要。
有个问题：4月30号可是不止半年，是7个月吧？所以用这个推算EB1/EB23-ROW全年的应
该是x(12/7)，而不是x2。
121,000应该不是真正审批的数字，应该包括7月已经current（但还没有审批完的）上
万个。这个从Demand data可以看出来，7月9号的已经把这些全部减掉了。 |
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 3 希望如此，我还没排到啊，NND.
给你们说得，我越来越觉得自己大有希望下个月排到。哈哈哈。
【在 E**********7 的大作中提到】
: 感谢数据。这个对于预测9月排期非常重要。
: 有个问题：4月30号可是不止半年，是7个月吧？所以用这个推算EB1/EB23-ROW全年的应
: 该是x(12/7)，而不是x2。
: 121,000应该不是真正审批的数字，应该包括7月已经current（但还没有审批完的）上
: 万个。这个从Demand data可以看出来，7月9号的已经把这些全部减掉了。
|
m**********u
发帖数: 197 | 4 what's your PD :).
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 希望如此，我还没排到啊，NND.
: 给你们说得，我越来越觉得自己大有希望下个月排到。哈哈哈。
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 5 PM你了，总之希望剩两万，解放大家。
【在 m**********u 的大作中提到】
: what's your PD :).
|
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 6 haha,这个比火箭扇的看法还乐观
【在 E**********7 的大作中提到】
: 感谢数据。这个对于预测9月排期非常重要。
: 有个问题：4月30号可是不止半年，是7个月吧？所以用这个推算EB1/EB23-ROW全年的应
: 该是x(12/7)，而不是x2。
: 121,000应该不是真正审批的数字，应该包括7月已经current（但还没有审批完的）上
: 万个。这个从Demand data可以看出来，7月9号的已经把这些全部减掉了。
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 7 大家看我算得有没问题。
121000－52745＝68525
５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。 |
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 8 Anyway Sept. VB date depends more on if Mr.O decides to rebuild EB2 pipeline.
【在 E**********7 的大作中提到】
: 感谢数据。这个对于预测9月排期非常重要。
: 有个问题：4月30号可是不止半年，是7个月吧？所以用这个推算EB1/EB23-ROW全年的应
: 该是x(12/7)，而不是x2。
: 121,000应该不是真正审批的数字，应该包括7月已经current（但还没有审批完的）上
: 万个。这个从Demand data可以看出来，7月9号的已经把这些全部减掉了。
|
l****n
发帖数: 3081 | 9 看样子大家的激情又要被点燃了，新一轮的等待开始。 |
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 10 ah, 8,9月的剩余都不够 ROW+EB1? 我们连水都喝把到了
求量
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家看我算得有没问题。
: 121000－52745＝68525
: ５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
: 其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
: 最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
: 这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。
|
|
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 11 咳，所以怎么算，都发愁皱眉头
【在 T******r 的大作中提到】
: ah, 8,9月的剩余都不够 ROW+EB1? 我们连水都喝把到了
:
: 求量
|
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 12 等明年夏天了, 一年过得很快.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 咳，所以怎么算，都发愁皱眉头
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 13 So, this 14842 is monthly demand?
Then, what have left for EB2 CI is (140000-121000-14842)= about 4k-5k?
Considering those new 485 submittals, then there is 1-2K left for Sept
EB2CI at most? That would advance PD for at most one month?
求量
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家看我算得有没问题。
: 121000－52745＝68525
: ５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
: 其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
: 最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
: 这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 14 按CNUS算的，Sept VB根本不可能放水。EB2CI能向前挪一个月都难。
pipeline.
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: Anyway Sept. VB date depends more on if Mr.O decides to rebuild EB2 pipeline.
|
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 15 看来今年的水7月VB就放完了, 也是好事. 只是把大家对8,9月的胃口吊起来了
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 按CNUS算的，Sept VB根本不可能放水。EB2CI能向前挪一个月都难。
:
: pipeline.
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 16 14842是monthly的。至少要乘2。
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: So, this 14842 is monthly demand?
: Then, what have left for EB2 CI is (140000-121000-14842)= about 4k-5k?
: Considering those new 485 submittals, then there is 1-2K left for Sept
: EB2CI at most? That would advance PD for at most one month?
:
:
: 求量
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 17 所以也不合理，因为没有CP的数据，必须给CP做个假设，减低除中印EB２外其他国家和
类别的需求。
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: So, this 14842 is monthly demand?
: Then, what have left for EB2 CI is (140000-121000-14842)= about 4k-5k?
: Considering those new 485 submittals, then there is 1-2K left for Sept
: EB2CI at most? That would advance PD for at most one month?
:
:
: 求量
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 18 Yes, you are right.
Also, we need to subtract the 2500 visa numbers given to August Eb2 CI. So
, this will further brings the numbers down, for EBCI.
Pretty bad news.
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 14842是monthly的。至少要乘2。
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 19 有没CP晚年的数据，放进去就可以降低这个数字。
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 14842是monthly的。至少要乘2。
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 20 结果是八月还没完就宣布2011年VISA#全用完了。
这其实是坏事中的好事。EB2CI提前用了2012年ROW的SO。很多人少等三个月到半年。
【在 T******r 的大作中提到】
: 看来今年的水7月VB就放完了, 也是好事. 只是把大家对8,9月的胃口吊起来了
|
|
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 21 Is that consistent with Mr. O's style? He's on the conservative side. Maybe
more SO will come in Sept. VB.
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 结果是八月还没完就宣布2011年VISA#全用完了。
: 这其实是坏事中的好事。EB2CI提前用了2012年ROW的SO。很多人少等三个月到半年。
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 22 那真得掐住其他国家，少批甚至不批，才够啊。
Maybe
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: Is that consistent with Mr. O's style? He's on the conservative side. Maybe
: more SO will come in Sept. VB.
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 23 在我印象中Mr. O唯一consistant的地方就是整个一笔糊涂帐。
Maybe
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: Is that consistent with Mr. O's style? He's on the conservative side. Maybe
: more SO will come in Sept. VB.
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 24 O管不了USCIS。个人感觉USCIS真是穷疯了。为了有理由不收新case，狂批手上的ROW。
就象当初07年为了攒理由改VB，是个case就给assign visa#。六月份在七月VB出来后的两周，assign了几万visa#，最后用不了又退回给DOS。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 那真得掐住其他国家，少批甚至不批，才够啊。
:
: Maybe
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 25 http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/august-2011-visa-
According to this analysis, 2500~5500 SO could be available in Sept. However
even in the best case VB will advance to 08Jul2007. More movement will
depend on if Mr. O decides to rebuild pipeline. That's what we should focus
on.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 那真得掐住其他国家，少批甚至不批，才够啊。
:
: Maybe
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 26 I think we have at least 20k left for August and September. In August EB2 China and India will use 2.5K and EB3 will use 1-2k. In August and September EB1 and EB2 ROW will use 5k-10k (really depends on whether USCIS expedite the EB1 and EB2 ROW).
I estimate we will get at least 5k-10k spillover in the last month of this
FY.
It's very likely it can reach July 2007 by this FY.
Whether Mr.O wants to move PD into 2008 Q1/Q2 really depends on whether he
realized the importance of building a pipeline this fiscal year.
求量
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家看我算得有没问题。
: 121000－52745＝68525
: ５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
: 其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
: 最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
: 这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 27 I agree. 121k includes the number assigned in July.
I think we will have 20k for August/September.
How much we can move forward depends on two factors:
1. How many EB1 and EB2 ROW will be approved in the last 2 months. Based on
my observation, EB1 and EB2 ROW is being approved slowly by small numbers.
2. Whether Mr.O wants to build a pipeline in the last month.
I think there is some chance we will clean up 2007 demand in this FY and
also moves PD into 2008. I am not 100% sure, but it has some chance.
【在 E**********7 的大作中提到】
: 感谢数据。这个对于预测9月排期非常重要。
: 有个问题：4月30号可是不止半年，是7个月吧？所以用这个推算EB1/EB23-ROW全年的应
: 该是x(12/7)，而不是x2。
: 121,000应该不是真正审批的数字，应该包括7月已经current（但还没有审批完的）上
: 万个。这个从Demand data可以看出来，7月9号的已经把这些全部减掉了。
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 28 Based on your assumption, we could only reach Jun.
senario1: 2.5k+2k+10k=14.5k
senario2: 2.5k+1k+5k=8.5k
and we only have 20k left.
SO for sep:
max(SO)=5.5k
min(SO)=0
(
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think we have at least 20k left for August and September. In August EB2 China and India will use 2.5K and EB3 will use 1-2k. In August and September EB1 and EB2 ROW will use 5k-10k (really depends on whether USCIS expedite the EB1 and EB2 ROW).
: I estimate we will get at least 5k-10k spillover in the last month of this
: FY.
: It's very likely it can reach July 2007 by this FY.
: Whether Mr.O wants to move PD into 2008 Q1/Q2 really depends on whether he
: realized the importance of building a pipeline this fiscal year.
:
: 求量
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 29 In senario1: we will have 5.5k spill over in the last month.
In senario2: we will have 11.5k spill over in the last month.
Currently we have 10.5k pending demand, minus 2.5k in August, we will have
8k pending demand in september. 11.5k will be enough to clean 8k in senario2.
In senario1, we will reach the end of June 2007.
I think the final result should be in the middle. If Mr.O wants to build a
pipeline, then we will reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: Based on your assumption, we could only reach Jun.
: senario1: 2.5k+2k+10k=14.5k
: senario2: 2.5k+1k+5k=8.5k
: and we only have 20k left.
: SO for sep:
: max(SO)=5.5k
: min(SO)=0
:
: (
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 30 What do you think of the chances that he rebuilds pipeline in Sept. VB?
After the 07 fiasco, could he decide not to rebuild pipeline at all?
China and India will use 2.5K and EB3 will use 1-2k. In August and September
EB1 and EB2 ROW will use 5k-10k (really depends on whether USCIS expedite
the EB1 and EB2 ROW).
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think we have at least 20k left for August and September. In August EB2 China and India will use 2.5K and EB3 will use 1-2k. In August and September EB1 and EB2 ROW will use 5k-10k (really depends on whether USCIS expedite the EB1 and EB2 ROW).
: I estimate we will get at least 5k-10k spillover in the last month of this
: FY.
: It's very likely it can reach July 2007 by this FY.
: Whether Mr.O wants to move PD into 2008 Q1/Q2 really depends on whether he
: realized the importance of building a pipeline this fiscal year.
:
: 求量
|
|
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 31 you have 5k-10k demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW for each month.
if you say 2.5k-5k demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW for each month, it will be a
very aggressive assumption.
senario2.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In senario1: we will have 5.5k spill over in the last month.
: In senario2: we will have 11.5k spill over in the last month.
: Currently we have 10.5k pending demand, minus 2.5k in August, we will have
: 8k pending demand in september. 11.5k will be enough to clean 8k in senario2.
: In senario1, we will reach the end of June 2007.
: I think the final result should be in the middle. If Mr.O wants to build a
: pipeline, then we will reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 32 I think at least 50% chance. In fact many people have reminded him the
importance of building pipeline. I also sent him an email several days ago
and he replied and said he will decide next month based on the new demand.
September
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: What do you think of the chances that he rebuilds pipeline in Sept. VB?
: After the 07 fiasco, could he decide not to rebuild pipeline at all?
:
: China and India will use 2.5K and EB3 will use 1-2k. In August and September
: EB1 and EB2 ROW will use 5k-10k (really depends on whether USCIS expedite
: the EB1 and EB2 ROW).
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 33 I assumed 2.5k-5k monthly approval for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
I analyzed the trackitt data.
From July 1st to July 13th, more than 130 C&I EB2 got approved and only 1
EB1 and 8 ROW EB2 got approved. More than 90% of the approval is EB2 for
China and India. Although it's possible trackitt may not reflect the 100%
truth, it did tell us that at least 80-90 percent of the approvals are China
and India EB2. EB1 and EB2 ROW are being approved very slowly, not too many
at all.
a
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: you have 5k-10k demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW for each month.
: if you say 2.5k-5k demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW for each month, it will be a
: very aggressive assumption.
:
: senario2.
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 34 yes, total 141k, used : 12k including July.
at least 141k-20k=21k left over...... EB3,EB5 and EB1 will use some of them
in Aug and Sep.
but the leftover SO >>10k of EB2I and EB2C before Aug 2007!!!
but why Mr O only moved the AUG PD for one month? don't understand. It will
waste a lot of SO this year!!!
on
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I agree. 121k includes the number assigned in July.
: I think we will have 20k for August/September.
: How much we can move forward depends on two factors:
: 1. How many EB1 and EB2 ROW will be approved in the last 2 months. Based on
: my observation, EB1 and EB2 ROW is being approved slowly by small numbers.
: 2. Whether Mr.O wants to build a pipeline in the last month.
: I think there is some chance we will clean up 2007 demand in this FY and
: also moves PD into 2008. I am not 100% sure, but it has some chance.
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 35 or Mr O is going to make sure the SO>demand in Sep, so he can open the gate
by law to build the inventory even some SO will be wasted?
them
will
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: yes, total 141k, used : 12k including July.
: at least 141k-20k=21k left over...... EB3,EB5 and EB1 will use some of them
: in Aug and Sep.
: but the leftover SO >>10k of EB2I and EB2C before Aug 2007!!!
: but why Mr O only moved the AUG PD for one month? don't understand. It will
: waste a lot of SO this year!!!
:
: on
|
E**********7
发帖数: 495 | 36 我觉得121k是个大致的估算，所以不如前面7个月的实批数据准确。
52745-2800x2(EB2IC)=47145/7=6735/month
当然假设是EB2C已经用了2800，实际少一些，这个影响不大。不可能后面的月消耗量一
下子增加到220%吧，所以这个121k有水分。
如果是14842/month的话8月份已经发不出来了（因为剩下的都不够两个月的），不可能
出现EB2IC前进1.25个月和EB3普遍前进的情况。
求量
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家看我算得有没问题。
: 121000－52745＝68525
: ５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
: 其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
: 最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
: 这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | |
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 38 你的pd?
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 希望如此，我还没排到啊，NND.
: 给你们说得，我越来越觉得自己大有希望下个月排到。哈哈哈。
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 39 I think he wants to give himself more flexibility for last month. Also he
can disclose there are more than 10k left over, then move PD into 2008.
otherwise, people will criticize him.
them
will
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: yes, total 141k, used : 12k including July.
: at least 141k-20k=21k left over...... EB3,EB5 and EB1 will use some of them
: in Aug and Sep.
: but the leftover SO >>10k of EB2I and EB2C before Aug 2007!!!
: but why Mr O only moved the AUG PD for one month? don't understand. It will
: waste a lot of SO this year!!!
:
: on
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 40 that is what I am thinking about........
anything is by law and about his job........ His job is to build inventory.
He doesn't care how many SO will be wasted because he think we will not get
those data.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think he wants to give himself more flexibility for last month. Also he
: can disclose there are more than 10k left over, then move PD into 2008.
: otherwise, people will criticize him.
:
: them
: will
|
|
|
a***n
发帖数: 665 | 41 Thanks NIU for the great work.
I'll donate at least $100 to NIU when being green'ed. |
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 42 I also analyzed the trackitt data from June 1st to June 30th.
More than 430 cases got approved in that period and totally there are 76
cases are for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
EB1 and EB2 ROW approval are only 17% of June approval.
EB1 and EB2 ROW approval in July is only 8%.
The left over 20k numbers, if we assume 10% goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, it will
be 2k. If we assume 20% goes to EB1/EB2 ROW, it will be 4k.
My orignal assumption is 5k-10k goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, which is already
pretty high (25%-50% of 20k). My assumption was way too conservative. The
truth is that EB1 and EB2 ROW can get 5k from these 20k maximum.
I think it's very likely EB2 India and China will have 10k Spillover in
September.
China
many
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I assumed 2.5k-5k monthly approval for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
: I analyzed the trackitt data.
: From July 1st to July 13th, more than 130 C&I EB2 got approved and only 1
: EB1 and 8 ROW EB2 got approved. More than 90% of the approval is EB2 for
: China and India. Although it's possible trackitt may not reflect the 100%
: truth, it did tell us that at least 80-90 percent of the approvals are China
: and India EB2. EB1 and EB2 ROW are being approved very slowly, not too many
: at all.
:
: a
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 43 also, assume 20k SO left.
Aug will consume about 5k-10k for EB2,Eb3 and EB1.
So at least 10k left in Sept, which is more than his inventory. He can
open the gate to build a new inventory in Sept.
But if he open the gate in Aug to clear the people before Aug 2007, there
will be small SO left or no SO left, he doesn't has the right to open the
gate.
Mr O is smart!! Don't underestimate him........ |
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 44 shake hand, I also think 10k for Sep........
will
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I also analyzed the trackitt data from June 1st to June 30th.
: More than 430 cases got approved in that period and totally there are 76
: cases are for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval are only 17% of June approval.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval in July is only 8%.
: The left over 20k numbers, if we assume 10% goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, it will
: be 2k. If we assume 20% goes to EB1/EB2 ROW, it will be 4k.
: My orignal assumption is 5k-10k goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, which is already
: pretty high (25%-50% of 20k). My assumption was way too conservative. The
: truth is that EB1 and EB2 ROW can get 5k from these 20k maximum.
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 45 10k SO will clear out the 07 wave, excluding PWMB, right? So the VB could
then advance to rebuild inventory, if O really understands its importance.
will
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I also analyzed the trackitt data from June 1st to June 30th.
: More than 430 cases got approved in that period and totally there are 76
: cases are for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval are only 17% of June approval.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval in July is only 8%.
: The left over 20k numbers, if we assume 10% goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, it will
: be 2k. If we assume 20% goes to EB1/EB2 ROW, it will be 4k.
: My orignal assumption is 5k-10k goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, which is already
: pretty high (25%-50% of 20k). My assumption was way too conservative. The
: truth is that EB1 and EB2 ROW can get 5k from these 20k maximum.
|
E**********7
发帖数: 495 | 46 Let's hope you are right. Then it's just enough to clear all 2007 pending
cases and hopefully can extend further to build pipeline.
will
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I also analyzed the trackitt data from June 1st to June 30th.
: More than 430 cases got approved in that period and totally there are 76
: cases are for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval are only 17% of June approval.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval in July is only 8%.
: The left over 20k numbers, if we assume 10% goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, it will
: be 2k. If we assume 20% goes to EB1/EB2 ROW, it will be 4k.
: My orignal assumption is 5k-10k goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, which is already
: pretty high (25%-50% of 20k). My assumption was way too conservative. The
: truth is that EB1 and EB2 ROW can get 5k from these 20k maximum.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 47 I think this is what is going to happen.
Based on the EB3 movement in August bulliten, they will get 1k-2k from these
20k left over.
EB1 and EB2 ROW are current, but based on my analysis of trackitt data, they
are only 17% of June approval and 8% of July approval.
That's why I firmly believe there will be more than 10k Spillover for the
last month.
gate
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: also, assume 20k SO left.
: Aug will consume about 5k-10k for EB2,Eb3 and EB1.
: So at least 10k left in Sept, which is more than his inventory. He can
: open the gate to build a new inventory in Sept.
: But if he open the gate in Aug to clear the people before Aug 2007, there
: will be small SO left or no SO left, he doesn't has the right to open the
: gate.
: Mr O is smart!! Don't underestimate him........
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 48 the point is that 10k SO is close to clear out the 07 wave. If Mr O advanced
the AUG Cut-off too much, the left over>SO, he can't open the gate. As a
result, his job will not be easy next year.
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: 10k SO will clear out the 07 wave, excluding PWMB, right? So the VB could
: then advance to rebuild inventory, if O really understands its importance.
:
: will
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 49 Yes sir, I think that's why Mr.O moved EB2 a small step in August.
It's all about polictics.
Nobody wants to be blamed.
Another thing is that EB1/EB ROW are being approved, but the numbers are
really small. EB1 plus EB2 ROW only count for 17% of June approvals and 8%
of July approvals. Why? Because nobody wants to be blamed. They want to keep
EB1 and EB2 ROW informed that they are still working on their cases, but 90
% of their focus is on EB2 China and India.
【在 E**********7 的大作中提到】
: Let's hope you are right. Then it's just enough to clear all 2007 pending
: cases and hopefully can extend further to build pipeline.
:
: will
|
a***n
发帖数: 665 | 50 this analysis is consistent with O's convervative style
in
September.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes sir, I think that's why Mr.O moved EB2 a small step in August.
: It's all about polictics.
: Nobody wants to be blamed.
: Another thing is that EB1/EB ROW are being approved, but the numbers are
: really small. EB1 plus EB2 ROW only count for 17% of June approvals and 8%
: of July approvals. Why? Because nobody wants to be blamed. They want to keep
: EB1 and EB2 ROW informed that they are still working on their cases, but 90
: % of their focus is on EB2 China and India.
|
|
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 51 PWMB are not demand yet. Once a case got ready for everything, it can become
demand. Most of the PWMB will become demand after 5-6 months.
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: 10k SO will clear out the 07 wave, excluding PWMB, right? So the VB could
: then advance to rebuild inventory, if O really understands its importance.
:
: will
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 52 yes, Mr.O is very conservative.
He wants to give himself more space for the last month.
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: this analysis is consistent with O's convervative style
:
: in
: September.
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 53 Why "his job will not be easy next year" if he can't open gate in Sept.? Is
there a regulation requiring him to do that? Sorry I'm new here.
advanced
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: the point is that 10k SO is close to clear out the 07 wave. If Mr O advanced
: the AUG Cut-off too much, the left over>SO, he can't open the gate. As a
: result, his job will not be easy next year.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 54 He does not want to give other people excuse to blame him.
No "Ba Bing".
advanced
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: the point is that 10k SO is close to clear out the 07 wave. If Mr O advanced
: the AUG Cut-off too much, the left over>SO, he can't open the gate. As a
: result, his job will not be easy next year.
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 55 Again, please do some research before drawing conlusions. This is quite
misleading to others.
Trackit is built by Indians, that is why EB1 and EB2 ROW are
underrepresented.
will
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I also analyzed the trackitt data from June 1st to June 30th.
: More than 430 cases got approved in that period and totally there are 76
: cases are for EB1 and EB2 ROW.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval are only 17% of June approval.
: EB1 and EB2 ROW approval in July is only 8%.
: The left over 20k numbers, if we assume 10% goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, it will
: be 2k. If we assume 20% goes to EB1/EB2 ROW, it will be 4k.
: My orignal assumption is 5k-10k goes to EB1 and EB2 ROW, which is already
: pretty high (25%-50% of 20k). My assumption was way too conservative. The
: truth is that EB1 and EB2 ROW can get 5k from these 20k maximum.
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 56 I am OUT OF WORDS
We have told you many times that the average processing time for 485 is 4
months. Please stop mislead people by using your own imagination.
I apologize for my harsh words. But what you've said had a very bad effect
on new people.
become
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: PWMB are not demand yet. Once a case got ready for everything, it can become
: demand. Most of the PWMB will become demand after 5-6 months.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 57 Many people use trackitt, not only indians, south koreans, pakistan, uae, uk
, etc
I also made assumption of 25-50% of total visas will go to EB1 and EB2 ROW,
almost 2 to 5 times of the real percentage to reduce the error.
If you think it's misleading, they discard it. I am not here to mislead
people. I just want to present my analysis.
People should make their own judgement call.
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: I am OUT OF WORDS
: We have told you many times that the average processing time for 485 is 4
: months. Please stop mislead people by using your own imagination.
: I apologize for my harsh words. But what you've said had a very bad effect
: on new people.
:
: become
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 58 Then, please stop spreading the wrong information, such as at least 5-6
months processing for new 485 cases!
uk
,
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Many people use trackitt, not only indians, south koreans, pakistan, uae, uk
: , etc
: I also made assumption of 25-50% of total visas will go to EB1 and EB2 ROW,
: almost 2 to 5 times of the real percentage to reduce the error.
: If you think it's misleading, they discard it. I am not here to mislead
: people. I just want to present my analysis.
: People should make their own judgement call.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 59 If you think I am bad influence, you can ask the Ban Zhu to ban me.
I never attacked people and never said bad words, I just want to present my
analysis. If you don't like it, then don't read it.
4
effect
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: Then, please stop spreading the wrong information, such as at least 5-6
: months processing for new 485 cases!
:
: uk
: ,
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 60 4 months is still too long for PWMB to become demand by the end of this FY.
Therefore no change in his original conclusion. Why do you think it's
misleading?
4
effect
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: Then, please stop spreading the wrong information, such as at least 5-6
: months processing for new 485 cases!
:
: uk
: ,
|
|
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 61 guys, calm down, let us talk about the data and what should we do
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: Then, please stop spreading the wrong information, such as at least 5-6
: months processing for new 485 cases!
:
: uk
: ,
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 62 I dont quite understand why the 485 processing time is so critical, or let's
say important.
Does it matter if there is only a month difference?
Can you help to explain? Thanks.
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: Then, please stop spreading the wrong information, such as at least 5-6
: months processing for new 485 cases!
:
: uk
: ,
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 63 5-6 months is from my own analysis.
You believe it's 4 months. You can present it.
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: Then, please stop spreading the wrong information, such as at least 5-6
: months processing for new 485 cases!
:
: uk
: ,
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 64 That is interesting. How come you have the right "not to let other people
express their feelings" "not to read some posts"?
If you are not satisfied with my comments, you could also "don't read it",
as you've suggested.
my
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: If you think I am bad influence, you can ask the Ban Zhu to ban me.
: I never attacked people and never said bad words, I just want to present my
: analysis. If you don't like it, then don't read it.
:
: 4
: effect
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 65 该封人时就封人
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: guys, calm down, let us talk about the data and what should we do
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 66 it's no problem, we are here for disucssions, I hope you are not offended.
people
",
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: That is interesting. How come you have the right "not to let other people
: express their feelings" "not to read some posts"?
: If you are not satisfied with my comments, you could also "don't read it",
: as you've suggested.
:
: my
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 67 warning: seansoon
pls don't personal attack........
let us talk friendly. pls |
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 68 I said many times.
Go to USCIS, type in your 485 ticket number, then check average processing
time. You will see it's 4 months. Also, CNUS has confirmed it's 3-4
months using trackit data.
We both have mentioned this to you MANY times.
That's it. i don't want to argue with you any more. I just want new people
to see different opinions on PD, so that they could draw more objective
conclusions.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 5-6 months is from my own analysis.
: You believe it's 4 months. You can present it.
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 69 Where is my personal attack please???
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: warning: seansoon
: pls don't personal attack........
: let us talk friendly. pls
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 70 So, 4 months vs. 5~6 months.What's the big deal? I don't quite get it.
Anyway PWMB cannot become new demand before end of FY2011.
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: I said many times.
: Go to USCIS, type in your 485 ticket number, then check average processing
: time. You will see it's 4 months. Also, CNUS has confirmed it's 3-4
: months using trackit data.
: We both have mentioned this to you MANY times.
: That's it. i don't want to argue with you any more. I just want new people
: to see different opinions on PD, so that they could draw more objective
: conclusions.
|
|
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 71 no problem.
I have to appologize for any inaccuracy in my analysis.
I wish all of us can get gc as soon as possible.
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: I said many times.
: Go to USCIS, type in your 485 ticket number, then check average processing
: time. You will see it's 4 months. Also, CNUS has confirmed it's 3-4
: months using trackit data.
: We both have mentioned this to you MANY times.
: That's it. i don't want to argue with you any more. I just want new people
: to see different opinions on PD, so that they could draw more objective
: conclusions.
|
l**c
发帖数: 1274 | 72 I support rocketsfan.
He decides weather or not to present his analysis here. We decide to believe
him or not ourselves.
my
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: If you think I am bad influence, you can ask the Ban Zhu to ban me.
: I never attacked people and never said bad words, I just want to present my
: analysis. If you don't like it, then don't read it.
:
: 4
: effect
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 73 back to the topic, data analysis.
and appreciate works of NIU!!!!!!!!!!
and donate money to NIU |
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 74 Thanks jspd....
You answered my question.
发信人: Llama (Llama), 信区: EB23
标 题: Re: NIU政府公关组获取审批数据取得进展
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 14 14:01:13 2011, 美东)
I dont quite understand why the 485 processing time is so critical, or let's
say important.
Does it matter if there is only a month difference?
Can you help to explain? Thanks.
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: So, 4 months vs. 5~6 months.What's the big deal? I don't quite get it.
: Anyway PWMB cannot become new demand before end of FY2011.
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 75 and thanks for your input here! |
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 76 why not? If the avg is 4 months, then I assume 30% could get visa numbers
in September. I don't know how many PWMB cases there are as a whole, say there
is 10,000. That would consume additional 3K visas, which will lag EB2CI PD
for a month.
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: So, 4 months vs. 5~6 months.What's the big deal? I don't quite get it.
: Anyway PWMB cannot become new demand before end of FY2011.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 77 Thanks for your support.
My analysis is not always correct. I have to admit there must be some errors
in my analysis.
I want all of us cheer up and get our GC asap.
There is nothing to blame her/him. I appologize for my harsh words too.
believe
【在 l**c 的大作中提到】
: I support rocketsfan.
: He decides weather or not to present his analysis here. We decide to believe
: him or not ourselves.
:
: my
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 78 NO. that's fine.
I guess you are pretty new, aren't you? I have been on this board for more
than 4 yrs. People tend to be emotional. Yes, we should not blame you. As you said, people make their own judgements. But see how many 2008 or even later pds have done the medical examinations?
The lesson that I've learned is
that, the PD game is all about balance of different interest groups.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: no problem.
: I have to appologize for any inaccuracy in my analysis.
: I wish all of us can get gc as soon as possible.
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 79 I think the PWMB with PDs current in Aug will miss the boat again....
sad to say....but it's true....if the avg is 4 mon....how can they make it
there
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: NO. that's fine.
: I guess you are pretty new, aren't you? I have been on this board for more
: than 4 yrs. People tend to be emotional. Yes, we should not blame you. As you said, people make their own judgements. But see how many 2008 or even later pds have done the medical examinations?
: The lesson that I've learned is
: that, the PD game is all about balance of different interest groups.
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 80 PWMB should be "bottom heavy", i.e. Jul>Jun>May>Apr>Mar, etc. Even for Mar
PWMB, if they submit 485 this July, that's only two months left before end of
FY2011.
there
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: NO. that's fine.
: I guess you are pretty new, aren't you? I have been on this board for more
: than 4 yrs. People tend to be emotional. Yes, we should not blame you. As you said, people make their own judgements. But see how many 2008 or even later pds have done the medical examinations?
: The lesson that I've learned is
: that, the PD game is all about balance of different interest groups.
|
|
|
s*******e
发帖数: 629 | 81 Support Rocketsfan! You don't have to agree with him. But PLEASE be polite
if you have different opinions to share with us.
Thank you all! |
R******e
发帖数: 146 | 82 who told you that an 485 appication need to be approved before it becomes
inventory? Again please based prediction on objective analyisis.
.
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: 4 months is still too long for PWMB to become demand by the end of this FY.
: Therefore no change in his original conclusion. Why do you think it's
: misleading?
:
: 4
: effect
|
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 83 what boat?
numbers
PD
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: I think the PWMB with PDs current in Aug will miss the boat again....
: sad to say....but it's true....if the avg is 4 mon....how can they make it
:
: there
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 84 我只帮seansoon说一句，上个月，火箭预测到８月，JWE出来辩不可能，最后结果也看
到了。大家都想要好结果的心情可以理解，经过上个月那么预期都快CURRENT了，迎来
２０００高潮，这个月就现实点吧。想坏点，没坏处，想太好，就和上个月一样。
more
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: NO. that's fine.
: I guess you are pretty new, aren't you? I have been on this board for more
: than 4 yrs. People tend to be emotional. Yes, we should not blame you. As you said, people make their own judgements. But see how many 2008 or even later pds have done the medical examinations?
: The lesson that I've learned is
: that, the PD game is all about balance of different interest groups.
|
l**c
发帖数: 1274 | 85 "People tends to be emotional."
Are you talking about yourself? I do not see other people at this topic
get mad so easily. Such as "I am OUT OF WORDS" .
But you are definitely right that "PD game is all about balance of different
interest groups."
more
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: NO. that's fine.
: I guess you are pretty new, aren't you? I have been on this board for more
: than 4 yrs. People tend to be emotional. Yes, we should not blame you. As you said, people make their own judgements. But see how many 2008 or even later pds have done the medical examinations?
: The lesson that I've learned is
: that, the PD game is all about balance of different interest groups.
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 86 meaning the PWMBs with PDs current after May2011 will not consume any visa
number of this fiscal yr....
is that correct?
of
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: PWMB should be "bottom heavy", i.e. Jul>Jun>May>Apr>Mar, etc. Even for Mar
: PWMB, if they submit 485 this July, that's only two months left before end of
: FY2011.
:
: there
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 87 Yea, I agree. But the June/July ones have fat chance. That's still a big
number.
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: I think the PWMB with PDs current in Aug will miss the boat again....
: sad to say....but it's true....if the avg is 4 mon....how can they make it
:
: there
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 88 Demand, not inventory. Before name check etc. submitted 485 cannot become
new demand.
【在 R******e 的大作中提到】
: who told you that an 485 appication need to be approved before it becomes
: inventory? Again please based prediction on objective analyisis.
:
: .
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 89 Yes that's my understanding. I'd like to hear different opinions.
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: meaning the PWMBs with PDs current after May2011 will not consume any visa
: number of this fiscal yr....
: is that correct?
:
: of
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 90 so sad....
俺们到底啥时候能绿啊
一天吃不香睡不好
有病了都
得治啊
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 我只帮seansoon说一句，上个月，火箭预测到８月，JWE出来辩不可能，最后结果也看
: 到了。大家都想要好结果的心情可以理解，经过上个月那么预期都快CURRENT了，迎来
: ２０００高潮，这个月就现实点吧。想坏点，没坏处，想太好，就和上个月一样。
:
: more
|
|
|
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 91 我支持火箭, 也理解seansoon. 问题的关键是群众是愚蠢的, 只选自己喜欢的听还
把火箭造成了神, 火箭说话的影响和别人不太一样, 但是 seansoon也不用太担心
愚蠢的群众, 多做一次体检也没什么.
我只帮seansoon说一句，上个月，火箭预测到８月，JWE出来辩不可能，最后结果也看
到了。大家都想要好结果的心情可以理解，经过上个月那么预期都快CURRENT了，迎来
２０００高潮，这个月就现实点吧。想坏点，没坏处，想太好，就和上个月一样。
more
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 我只帮seansoon说一句，上个月，火箭预测到８月，JWE出来辩不可能，最后结果也看
: 到了。大家都想要好结果的心情可以理解，经过上个月那么预期都快CURRENT了，迎来
: ２０００高潮，这个月就现实点吧。想坏点，没坏处，想太好，就和上个月一样。
:
: more
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 92 How many people have done medical examinations/asked about it?
Even 2010 PDs asked about the possibility of current.(I am not blaming
rocketfan for this).
different
【在 l**c 的大作中提到】
: "People tends to be emotional."
: Are you talking about yourself? I do not see other people at this topic
: get mad so easily. Such as "I am OUT OF WORDS" .
: But you are definitely right that "PD game is all about balance of different
: interest groups."
:
: more
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 93 大家不要忘记EB３老印升级过来的人数，已经快５个月，EB２I一直都在大幅度跳，要
考虑这因素。那７个月的数据，我感觉老印半年升上来的也有２０００多至少。 |
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 94 吃不香好呀，俺吃嘛嘛香，哭着喊着减肥
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: so sad....
: 俺们到底啥时候能绿啊
: 一天吃不香睡不好
: 有病了都
: 得治啊
|
s******n
发帖数: 340 | 95 exactly. That's why I am very concerned about his comments. Many people have
drawn wrong conclusions, but I rarely argue with them. Thanks for your
understanding.
I need to go back to work. Talk you guys later. And good luck to everyone!
【在 T******r 的大作中提到】
: 我支持火箭, 也理解seansoon. 问题的关键是群众是愚蠢的, 只选自己喜欢的听还
: 把火箭造成了神, 火箭说话的影响和别人不太一样, 但是 seansoon也不用太担心
: 愚蠢的群众, 多做一次体检也没什么.
:
: 我只帮seansoon说一句，上个月，火箭预测到８月，JWE出来辩不可能，最后结果也看
: 到了。大家都想要好结果的心情可以理解，经过上个月那么预期都快CURRENT了，迎来
: ２０００高潮，这个月就现实点吧。想坏点，没坏处，想太好，就和上个月一样。
: more
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 96 赫赫
律师忽悠的功劳大大的有
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家不要忘记EB３老印升级过来的人数，已经快５个月，EB２I一直都在大幅度跳，要
: 考虑这因素。那７个月的数据，我感觉老印半年升上来的也有２０００多至少。
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 97 为张大钦喊冤，哈哈。
【在 T******r 的大作中提到】
: 我支持火箭, 也理解seansoon. 问题的关键是群众是愚蠢的, 只选自己喜欢的听还
: 把火箭造成了神, 火箭说话的影响和别人不太一样, 但是 seansoon也不用太担心
: 愚蠢的群众, 多做一次体检也没什么.
:
: 我只帮seansoon说一句，上个月，火箭预测到８月，JWE出来辩不可能，最后结果也看
: 到了。大家都想要好结果的心情可以理解，经过上个月那么预期都快CURRENT了，迎来
: ２０００高潮，这个月就现实点吧。想坏点，没坏处，想太好，就和上个月一样。
: more
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 98 好个鬼啊
就这样了还有180多的肥肉在身上嘟噜着呢
只好趁机减肥了
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 吃不香好呀，俺吃嘛嘛香，哭着喊着减肥
|
l**c
发帖数: 1274 | 99 That is their problem. And I think people learned a lesson from Aug VB. Hope
for the best and prepare for the worst.
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: exactly. That's why I am very concerned about his comments. Many people have
: drawn wrong conclusions, but I rarely argue with them. Thanks for your
: understanding.
: I need to go back to work. Talk you guys later. And good luck to everyone!
|
R******e
发帖数: 146 | 100 I'm out of my word too. There are numerous times seasoned PDs pointed out
the flaws of Rocketfan's prediction. The most recent example is the argument
around the processing time. It also leads to some people believe that when
a case would not be part of the inventory until it get approved. All I'm
saying is some people's ungrounded prediction really misled new PDs.
different
【在 l**c 的大作中提到】
: "People tends to be emotional."
: Are you talking about yourself? I do not see other people at this topic
: get mad so easily. Such as "I am OUT OF WORDS" .
: But you are definitely right that "PD game is all about balance of different
: interest groups."
:
: more
|
|
|
l**c
发帖数: 1274 | 101 Every prediction is misleading. No only Rocketfan's. I support him just
because he did his own analysis. He has something new to show us. It does
not mean I believe his conclusion.
argument
when
【在 R******e 的大作中提到】
: I'm out of my word too. There are numerous times seasoned PDs pointed out
: the flaws of Rocketfan's prediction. The most recent example is the argument
: around the processing time. It also leads to some people believe that when
: a case would not be part of the inventory until it get approved. All I'm
: saying is some people's ungrounded prediction really misled new PDs.
:
: different
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 102 how many PWMB on earth as a total?
is there an rough estimate for that...
I assume that's the most uncertain factor in calculating the available visa
number
argument
when
【在 R******e 的大作中提到】
: I'm out of my word too. There are numerous times seasoned PDs pointed out
: the flaws of Rocketfan's prediction. The most recent example is the argument
: around the processing time. It also leads to some people believe that when
: a case would not be part of the inventory until it get approved. All I'm
: saying is some people's ungrounded prediction really misled new PDs.
:
: different
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 103 同学们讨论一下，为什么５，６，７会用那么多名额（从５２４７５＋CP到１２１００
０）？谁能解释这个需求的大增（２４０００是已经知道给EB２C／I的），这对后面的
假设很关键。
大增也是O说的原因，基本是实情。
假设CP每月１０００，前１０个月１００００左右， 那么５，６，７总计处理了34，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。 |
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 104 更具8388的小道消息
老鹰三代升级二代
划船恶霸1代2代
还有呢？
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 同学们讨论一下，为什么５，６，７会用那么多名额（从５２４７５＋CP到１２１００
: ０）？谁能解释这个需求的大增（２４０００是已经知道给EB２C／I的），这对后面的
: 假设很关键。
: 大增也是O说的原因，基本是实情。
: 假设CP每月１０００，前１０个月１００００左右， 那么５，６，７总计处理了34，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 105 升级就几千，无法解释这三个月海量的非EB２C／I的增量。
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 更具8388的小道消息
: 老鹰三代升级二代
: 划船恶霸1代2代
: 还有呢？
|
R******e
发帖数: 146 | 106 So you are saying you'll support an analysis if it's new even that analysis
is ungrounded and based on false information?
Nobody, even Mr. O, can make accurate prediction on a consistent basis. But
one's prediction should be done on an objective fashion with published data,
reasonable assumptions and accurate application of law and regulation.
【在 l**c 的大作中提到】
: Every prediction is misleading. No only Rocketfan's. I support him just
: because he did his own analysis. He has something new to show us. It does
: not mean I believe his conclusion.
:
: argument
: when
|
b********7
发帖数: 12906 | 107 dude..everybody can put his own analysis here. It's up to the audience to
believe it or not. period. we are all grown ups. there's no legal
obligations of any sort. Nobody says you HAVE TO believe whatever is posted.
analysis
But
data,
【在 R******e 的大作中提到】
: So you are saying you'll support an analysis if it's new even that analysis
: is ungrounded and based on false information?
: Nobody, even Mr. O, can make accurate prediction on a consistent basis. But
: one's prediction should be done on an objective fashion with published data,
: reasonable assumptions and accurate application of law and regulation.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 108 I am sorry to know many people are disappointed on my analysis and
prediction. I understand your frustrations.
From the bottom of my heard, I wish everybody can get green card as soon as
possible. Everybody should be able to see their family and change job easily
after GC. I understand the pain during the process of waiting.
I sincerely wish good luck to everybody on this board.
Thank you for your kind understanding and support!
analysis
But
data,
【在 R******e 的大作中提到】
: So you are saying you'll support an analysis if it's new even that analysis
: is ungrounded and based on false information?
: Nobody, even Mr. O, can make accurate prediction on a consistent basis. But
: one's prediction should be done on an objective fashion with published data,
: reasonable assumptions and accurate application of law and regulation.
|
w*****g
发帖数: 3922 | 109 没有人可以取悦所有人，你没必要因为有人不喜欢你的言论而停止自己发表言论的作法
，除非你的言论违背了规章制度。
as
easily
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I am sorry to know many people are disappointed on my analysis and
: prediction. I understand your frustrations.
: From the bottom of my heard, I wish everybody can get green card as soon as
: possible. Everybody should be able to see their family and change job easily
: after GC. I understand the pain during the process of waiting.
: I sincerely wish good luck to everybody on this board.
: Thank you for your kind understanding and support!
:
: analysis
: But
|
w*****g
发帖数: 3922 | 110 我个人不认为O不能对今后做出较准确的预测，但他可以始终选择告诉你他不能。
analysis
But
data,
【在 R******e 的大作中提到】
: So you are saying you'll support an analysis if it's new even that analysis
: is ungrounded and based on false information?
: Nobody, even Mr. O, can make accurate prediction on a consistent basis. But
: one's prediction should be done on an objective fashion with published data,
: reasonable assumptions and accurate application of law and regulation.
|
|
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 111 呼唤伴舞出来贴版规
见输伢子姐妹拎着教鞭
破意思扛着块小黑板
大厨妹妹临着铲子敲着大勺
进场
【在 w*****g 的大作中提到】
: 没有人可以取悦所有人，你没必要因为有人不喜欢你的言论而停止自己发表言论的作法
: ，除非你的言论违背了规章制度。
:
: as
: easily
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 112 lol
讨论问题争论难免，没什么大不了的，别太敏感。
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 呼唤伴舞出来贴版规
: 见输伢子姐妹拎着教鞭
: 破意思扛着块小黑板
: 大厨妹妹临着铲子敲着大勺
: 进场
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 113 哪个大牛SAY SAY
，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 同学们讨论一下，为什么５，６，７会用那么多名额（从５２４７５＋CP到１２１００
: ０）？谁能解释这个需求的大增（２４０００是已经知道给EB２C／I的），这对后面的
: 假设很关键。
: 大增也是O说的原因，基本是实情。
: 假设CP每月１０００，前１０个月１００００左右， 那么５，６，７总计处理了34，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 114 This is really a critical question. Is there any evidence that huge numbers
of EB1 and EB2ROW were approved in May, June and July? Was there such a
seasonal pattern in previous years? I'm really scratching my head...
，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 同学们讨论一下，为什么５，６，７会用那么多名额（从５２４７５＋CP到１２１００
: ０）？谁能解释这个需求的大增（２４０００是已经知道给EB２C／I的），这对后面的
: 假设很关键。
: 大增也是O说的原因，基本是实情。
: 假设CP每月１０００，前１０个月１００００左右， 那么５，６，７总计处理了34，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
|
R******e
发帖数: 146 | 115 I believe you are a good dude. I just wish you have done more homework.
There are some really good analysis out there that all of us can learn. You
have devoted lots of time to your analyis. I believe you can do a lot better
. As more and more old PDs are getting there GCs, all the experience and
knowledge those old PDs learnt from the past painful years could very well
get lost in the next few months. When the new PDs come on board, they may
well need to start it all over again. At the end of the day, I just hope
that new PDs won't stop taking action because misinformation and wishful
thinking.
thanks.
as
easily
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I am sorry to know many people are disappointed on my analysis and
: prediction. I understand your frustrations.
: From the bottom of my heard, I wish everybody can get green card as soon as
: possible. Everybody should be able to see their family and change job easily
: after GC. I understand the pain during the process of waiting.
: I sincerely wish good luck to everybody on this board.
: Thank you for your kind understanding and support!
:
: analysis
: But
|
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 116 I do see some increase for may/june from trackitt, comparing with last year.
But I didn't see that much increasement.
numbers
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: This is really a critical question. Is there any evidence that huge numbers
: of EB1 and EB2ROW were approved in May, June and July? Was there such a
: seasonal pattern in previous years? I'm really scratching my head...
:
: ，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 117 早就跟你们说了USCIS不涨钱不会放水。仅从这点我就说了八月VB不会过大潮。但没想
到USCIS
把当年2007年六月的劲头拿出来了，狂用VISA。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 哪个大牛SAY SAY
:
: ，５２５个非EB２C／I的CASE，巨量啊。
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 118 按理说不应该啊
美国真的复苏了？
year.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: I do see some increase for may/june from trackitt, comparing with last year.
: But I didn't see that much increasement.
:
: numbers
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 119 Either 52,475 is an understatement for the first half year, or 121,000
overestimates the total number up to July. I can't imagine such a huge jump
in just 3 months. Maybe those officials don't have accurate numbers
themselves...
year.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: I do see some increase for may/june from trackitt, comparing with last year.
: But I didn't see that much increasement.
:
: numbers
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 120
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
给谁？
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 早就跟你们说了USCIS不涨钱不会放水。仅从这点我就说了八月VB不会过大潮。但没想
: 到USCIS
: 把当年2007年六月的劲头拿出来了，狂用VISA。
|
|
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 121 啥时涨？
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 早就跟你们说了USCIS不涨钱不会放水。仅从这点我就说了八月VB不会过大潮。但没想
: 到USCIS
: 把当年2007年六月的劲头拿出来了，狂用VISA。
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 122 请阅
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/EB23/31349285_0.html
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
:
: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
: 给谁？
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | |
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 124 退给DOS了。USCIS这个内幕被暴之后，立刻就从了。
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 对阿
: 2007年CIS狂用VISA给谁了啊？
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 125 。。。。
发指
介不是浪费么
之后应该不会了吧
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 退给DOS了。USCIS这个内幕被暴之后，立刻就从了。
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 126 六月拿的七月退的，好像没浪费。
你想想对USCIS来说是员工的饭碗重要还是咱们的绿卡重要？
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 。。。。
: 发指
: 介不是浪费么
: 之后应该不会了吧
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 127 If that's the case, they'll return the visas next month to DOS? Just curious
...
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 六月拿的七月退的，好像没浪费。
: 你想想对USCIS来说是员工的饭碗重要还是咱们的绿卡重要？
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 128 上次是USCIS的内部人士暴出来的。那时候USCIS即使不涨钱，也能向政府伸手要钱，吃
饭不是问题。现在是政府自己都在伸手要钱。。。
curious
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: If that's the case, they'll return the visas next month to DOS? Just curious
: ...
|
j**d
发帖数: 82 | 129 So you think they'll only open gate after the fee increase? How's the plan
going now? What are the chances they'll be implemented before Sept. VB?
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 上次是USCIS的内部人士暴出来的。那时候USCIS即使不涨钱，也能向政府伸手要钱，吃
: 饭不是问题。现在是政府自己都在伸手要钱。。。
:
: curious
|
P****S
发帖数: 2286 | 130 很报歉，我也不清楚。
我只是看到版上有人转的一片英文文章说到PD可能会倒退。但文章中提到USCIS涨钱的
事，而且很同情USCIS。
plan
【在 j**d 的大作中提到】
: So you think they'll only open gate after the fee increase? How's the plan
: going now? What are the chances they'll be implemented before Sept. VB?
|
|
|
l****n
发帖数: 3081 | |
y***n
发帖数: 6764 | |
a***n
发帖数: 665 | 133 rocketsfan,
you should understand this "seansoon (商裔)" guy is here to test your
patience
and make you a better and more matured person, so smile and don't low
yourself
to his/her level.
we all (at least most of us) enjoyed and appreciated your great posts here.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: no problem.
: I have to appologize for any inaccuracy in my analysis.
: I wish all of us can get gc as soon as possible.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 134 hehe, thank you for your support!
I want to provide better analysis for sure.
And please don't take my analysis too seriously.
I feel very bad when I heard that some folks went for medical exam. I never
wanted to cause troubles to folks.
But I still believe we have a medium chance to advance into 2008.
Let's keep fingers crossed.
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: rocketsfan,
: you should understand this "seansoon (商裔)" guy is here to test your
: patience
: and make you a better and more matured person, so smile and don't low
: yourself
: to his/her level.
: we all (at least most of us) enjoyed and appreciated your great posts here.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 135 Thank you for your support! I appreciate it!
Other guys' analysis is also very welcome.
I don't want to be "sheng". I am a just normal guy who wants to provide some
analysis. I also want to hear comments from all of our folks.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 只支持火箭！
|
i********n
发帖数: 338 | |
l***o
发帖数: 1111 | 137 Rocketsfan, don't blame yourself. For August VB, Mr.O said "will move
forward SEVERAL months" according to his original reply, and that misguided
many people. Nobody can make accurate predictions all the time, especially
at this moment. It is not your fault. Plus this is still not the end of
fiscal 2011 and it's too early to draw conclusions. Let's see how Sep VB
goes.
Also many thanks to P8388, both of you have tried your best to help out the
board with a lot of detailed info. You have done a great job. Thanks a lot
for your continuous efforts, and please keep us updated with your new data
analysis and messages:)
never
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, thank you for your support!
: I want to provide better analysis for sure.
: And please don't take my analysis too seriously.
: I feel very bad when I heard that some folks went for medical exam. I never
: wanted to cause troubles to folks.
: But I still believe we have a medium chance to advance into 2008.
: Let's keep fingers crossed.
|
a******g
发帖数: 725 | 138 按你这样算
14842×12=178224。
岂不是大于140000？
求量
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家看我算得有没问题。
: 121000－52745＝68525
: ５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
: 其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
: 最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
: 这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。
|
a******g
发帖数: 725 | 139 按你这样算
14842×12=178224。
岂不是大于140000？
求量
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 大家看我算得有没问题。
: 121000－52745＝68525
: ５，６，７中印EB２总计算放24000
: 其他国家和EB１每月在５，６，７三个月平均有（68525－24000）／３＝14842的需求量
: 最后８，９月份全世界最乐观估计剩２万职业移民名额
: 这么算９月还是很悲观。火箭扇，你给算个乐观的。呵呵。
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a******g
发帖数: 725 | |
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a******g
发帖数: 725 | |
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 142 I haven't plug in the right assumption. I will get time to do it today.
thanks.
【在 a******g 的大作中提到】
: 按你这样算
: 14842×12=178224。
: 岂不是大于140000？
:
: 求量
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z*********8
发帖数: 201 | 143 什么是FOIA渠道？名额多了，排期就快了是不？这次排到哪一年的名额了？
【在 N*********L 的大作中提到】
: 政府公关组ERIC JI通过FOIA的渠道，已经获取２０１１年财政年度职业移民审批数据
: ，上半年截止到４月３０日，职业移民总计审批发放52，475个绿卡名额。 同时公关组
: 志愿者和奥本海默的沟通中，截止昨天获知 , 职业已经审批了１２１，０００个绿卡
: 名额。
: NIU数据和分析志愿者将会对从FOIA获得的２０１１年上半年每月批准数据做进一步分
: 析，期待他们的后续讨论和分析。
: 此次数据的进展的关键是认识了USCIS处理FOIA的关键人士，建立起沟通渠道，通过
: FOIA被证明是一条可行的办法获取数据。 现在的问题是，很快志愿者要离开组织，此
: 次FOIA是４月份ERIC JI提出的（QUK，JWE律师信并行的项目），有三个月的时滞。迫
: 切需要新人加入NIU，利用NIU的平台和已有的沟通渠道，继续为自己为大家服务。
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