EB23版 - UPDATE: EB2 IC will move very slowly even after June 2011. |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
WELCOME TO Q'S IMMIGRATION BLOG
Based on the latest 2010 EB approval reports, this is the current status and
predictions for EB2.
THIS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO BEING PAINTED. SO DON'T KILL THE
MESSENGER. TRY AND UNDERSTAND THE RATIONALE BEHIND.
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat
).
Summary - EB2 IS GOING TO BE IN A TOUGH SPOT AND MAY NOT SEE MUCH MOVEMENT
IN 2011
The 2010 Approvals saw EB1 and EB2-ROW new demand (i.e. complete new 485
applications) at an unprecedented levels. EB1 received 46K new applications.
EB2-ROW-MP received 31K.
In 2011 we expect to see either similar demand continue in 2011 and/or the
fall-out of last year's backlog. As a result we are predicting an
unfortunate scenario of EB2IC dates not progressing a whole lot in 2011.
Under this worst case scenario only 5.6K seem to come EB2IC's way which may
or may not move the dates given that there are about 4K conversions going on
each year.
The headwinds for EB2IC are as follows:
- Strong EB1 demand (45K)
- Significant EB1 backlog (7K)
- Strong EB2-ROW-MP demand (24K)
- Significant EB2-ROW-MP backlog (10K)
- Lack of FB spillover in 2011
- EB3->2 conversions
- 15% CP quota
The tailwinds for EB2IC are:
- Possibility of EB2/1 to not being able to utilize all its quota + surplus
(in other words they may keep some backlog at the end of 2011)
- Possibility of EB2-ROW demand being 3/4th of 2010 demand .
- EB5 will continue to provide 8-9K SOFAD
- Possible rejections of 140s / 485s
As of now the model below uses the same numbers to predict 2011 NEW DEMAND
except for ROW EB2 where we think 3/4th demand is possible based on trackitt
and 140 data.
Additionally, the model assumes that EB1 and EB2-ROW will clear their
backlog. (Word of caution - in 2010 we saw that despite availability of
visas to clear EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog, IC did receive SOFAD. So some amout
of EB1 EB2-ROW backlog may stay back).
Some of the tailwinds mentioned above could be helpful. However as of now it
doesn't give us any comfort when we look at EB1 and EB2-ROW total possible
consumption.
Details
Summary of EB2 Situation in 2011 USCIS Fiscal:
2011 Total Visa Demand - ~70K
2011 Total Visa Availability - ~40K
The explanation of terms:1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000
designated empl. visas for each category and country.
2. Backlog 485 - Is the inventory that includes 485. It doesn't include 7%
PWMBs and 3% portings (i.e. 4-5K per year).
3. 2011 New Demand - Is the additional 485 applications for 2011. As of now
same demand as 2010 is used.
4. 2011 SOFAD - Shows in green how much surplus each category will provide.
If -ve it shows the backlog in that category at the end of Sep 2011.
5. FA recvd - Fall Across Visas Received Within A Category
6. FA Given - Fall Across Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is
Fulfilled
7. FD recvd - Fall Up Down Visas Received From Another Category
8. Spare Visas - These are the total spare visas in a category that can be
used for countries that have hit their limits.
9. IC Quota - India china quota
10 . IC consumption - This is the traditional SOFAD or Total IC consumption
which goes towards clearing IC backlog (esp EB2).
8. FD given - Fall Up Down Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is
Fulfilled
Assumptions:
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was
correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the
latest we have is from last year).
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
5. 7% people missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not
included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
6. 4000 EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011. (partially included in ROW. But IC not
included)
7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
8. EB2 ROW demand stays 3/4 of last year and EB2 ROW clears its backlog.
Why Didn't We See More SOFAD in 2010?
Those who are wondering how much SOFAD we saw in 2010 and why it was not
more, here is some explanation of what happened.
We expected a SOFAD 33K-53K. Of this 23K was to come from EB2 ROW, 24K EB1
and 6K from EB4/5. In reality India and China received 26.5K. What happened
was EB2-ROW saw PERM processing for 2007-08-09-10 speed up thereby releasing
approx 20K more applications. (Source trackitt data w some statistical
calculations). So the bad news is that;s what prevented overall SOFAD from
being bigger. Unfortunately we may see some of the remaining ROW demand flow
through in 2011 which has the potential to prevent any FA to IC.
Another reason SOFAD was limited was because of EB1, EB1 saw 41K approvals
and only yielded 2K of its own plus 9K from EB5. So EB1 also didn't yield
24K that we thought it would.
Good luck!
Visa Bulletin Interpretation
Looking at inventory it is crystal clear that the dates will absolutely not
retrogress (unless EB3 convert en masse!).
The dates for EB2 IC will move very slowly even after June 2011. ROW should
continue to be current.
Please note that for year 2011 we expect EB4 to be backlogged a little bit! | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 2 Even indians begin to say bad news for EB2CI. | n**********s
发帖数: 236 | 3 the demand from ROW is high and EB1 demand is high.
we will be stuck in this deep shit hole for a long long long long time!
if EB2ROW demand exceeds 3/4, we will stay in 2006 for at least another year!
and
【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
: WELCOME TO Q'S IMMIGRATION BLOG
: Based on the latest 2010 EB approval reports, this is the current status and
: predictions for EB2.
: THIS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO BEING PAINTED. SO DON'T KILL THE
: MESSENGER. TRY AND UNDERSTAND THE RATIONALE BEHIND.
: Acronyms
: SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
: SO - Spillover
| T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 4 Well, Indian prediction 听听就行了，别JB乱说哈。 |
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