b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 1 (CNN) -- Describing it as a "day that has been a long time coming,"
President Barack Obama made modern history Monday by announcing the creation
of a monument to honor the late labor and civil rights activist Cesar
Chavez.
The Cesar E. Chavez National Monument becomes the 398th unit in the National
Park Service system, and the first honoring a Latino born later than the
1700s, the Park Service told CNN.
It's no coincidence the move comes less than a month before Election Day, as
the president ma... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 3 离11/6还有十天，R忙活那么厉害有可能把全国poll往上提升个1%，但是关键摇摆州像
Ohio基本上被O8从今年春夏开始就开发得差不多了。
O8从2009年stimulus 开始用国家印钞财政向Ohio和PA等关键州投了大笔钱，bailout
汽车工业，支持各种spending和州地方政府的预算和养老基金，给了当地政府职员和工
会很多甜头。
很早O8往一些关键county部署大量人力挨家挨户督促投票，early vote大部分都是O8的
支持者。那时候Romney还在忙着党内初选，直到九月份都在对付47%之类的突发情况，
到10/3辩论才扭转劣势，而Ohio的early vote 九月就开始了。共和党企图在法院阻止
Ohio的early vote，但是没有成功，所以Ohio基本上丢了。
虽然VA和FL 看着R有戏，但是如果不赢下michigan或WI这种工会势力很强的州，R还是
白忙。
现在选举投票从九月初labor day以后就开始，R在九月poll落后太多，现在不把RCP
poll average拉开2-3%以上的差距就输定。
Why Election Day no longer... 阅读全帖 |
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B*******m
发帖数: 512 | 4 I am not sure what you are talking about. In key states like OH, WI, IA, NH,
White turnout is the key. There are not many Blacks, Hispanics in those
states. The Whites are very angry about Obama and they will come out in
droves this time. In 2008, 2 million Whites stayed home and a very large
percentage of them are White Males which is the weakest group for Obama. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 October 30, 2012 Doug Johnson
The new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of
1,000 likely Ohio voters – taken from last Monday through Thursday – shows
Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. That
represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but
reflects a race that remains statistically tied. Even the swing is within
the margin of error, so it is possible the candidates were tied last week
when Romney lead by 2 perc... 阅读全帖 |
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j****r
发帖数: 192 | 6 They are right. Whites are very angry. And not just whites, a lot of other
people are angry too. These liberals can't imagine or don't want to believe
how angry people are. Except Black & Hispanic groups, all other demographic
groups will see a drop in percentage of support for 0bama compared to 2008.
Even for Blacks & Hispanics, their turnout would be nothing like in 2008.
going |
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d****i
发帖数: 4354 | 7 看看标题，那方更desperate
Real Clear Politics Thursday
The Case for Barack Obama - E.J. Dionne, Time
[O - 1]
How Far Obama Has Fallen - Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
[Neutral]
Obama's Electoral College 'Firewall' Holding - Nate Silver, New York Times
[Neutral]
Don't Be Surprised When Obama Loses - Dan McLaughlin, Baseball Crank
[Neutral]
GOP's Protection-Racket Politics - Paul Krugman, New York Times
[O - 1]
The Most Important Election Since 1980 - Charles Krauthammer, Wash Post
[Neutral]
RCP Aftern... 阅读全帖 |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 8 For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign's
internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public
polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa
. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and
was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn't won
since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Those leads in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa still hold in the
internal polls, c... 阅读全帖 |
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l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 9 SUCKER.
you do not have eyes to see the last sentence.
"But the numbers provided by the state's Republican party are different than
what's appearing in the local papers."
Heavy early voting turnout in city, suburban Cook County
November 3, 2012 4:12PM
Even though there are four fewer days in the Early Voting period this year
than there were for the 2008 presidential election, nearly as many Chicago
Early Voting ballots have been cast, according to the Chicago Board of
Election Commissioners.
Boa... 阅读全帖 |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 10 Something very much like that appears to be happening again. I say that for
two reasons. First, it has been mystifying to watch as pollster after
pollster has assumed a 2008 turnout model, with a result that their
weighting has assumed Democrat advantages of seven or more points throughout
the post-Labor Day campaign.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney-will-win-because-its-1980- |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 11 一切喧嚣、骚攘、叫骂和诅咒，都会随风而去。
我的心境，就如Peggy这篇文章所描述的，
平和，如风和日丽天道下的一潭安详秋水。。。
Monday Morning
By Peggy Noonan
We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say:
Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing. I spent Sunday morning in
Washington with journalists and political hands, one of whom said she feels
it’s Obama, the rest of whom said they don’t know. I think it’s Romney. I
think he’s stealing in “like a thief with good tools,” in Walker Percy’
s old words. While everyone is look... 阅读全帖 |
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d****v
发帖数: 248 | 12 早上八点去的，等了半小时。
投票点在北弗吉尼亚某区， 60个等的人里边，包括自己有三张黄面孔。老黑一个，无
老莫，老印也是三个，其余都是白人。
同事在另一投票点，据称TURNOUT RATE 前所未有。她早上六点半去的，等了一个多小
时，有某些打算投票的人直接掉头走了。 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 13 好消息！这一次共和党的支持者会前所未有地TURNOUT，有好戏看了。 |
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l******x
发帖数: 1697 | 14 难道今年evangelical 又要发威？
难道巴马总统对同性婚姻的表态是搬起石头砸自己的脚？ |
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l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 15
今早听radio,Northeast OHIO的各个郊区一大早就有人投票。
一个人说，他排在71位，花了7分钟。一个女士特意说透了所有
共和党一票。无论如何，俄亥俄决定美国命运的时候到了。 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 18 Newscasts in NH and Ohio are saying big Republican and Independent crowds
early on. This is great news because the bulk of us working people are still
at work and we will be going to vote MITT in all over the country. |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 20 佛罗里达，俄亥俄，弗吉尼亚和科罗拉多州
无论在early voting 还是election day turnout，
共和党的投票率均有大幅度增长，而民主党
则相反。
Npr的记者现场在佛罗里达奥兰多报道，目前为止，共和党投票人数比08年
增长11%,而且还在不断增加中。而民主党目前惊人地减少
了约40%,即便在剩余的时间里民主党投票反增，奥巴马今年
要赢得佛罗里达已很困难了。
同样，初始数据也显示科罗拉多，俄亥俄和弗吉尼亚这种趋势
也相当明显。 |
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r********t
发帖数: 216 | 21 这种垃圾yy文章还是别出了显摆了
佛罗里达，俄亥俄，弗吉尼亚和科罗拉多州无论在early voting 还是election day
turnout， 共和党的投票率均有大幅度增长，而民主党则相反。Npr的记者........ |
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o****u
发帖数: 1299 | 22 Ari Fleischer @AriFleischer
RT this is IA's most D county MT @jcauditor: Lowest voting at the polls in
32 years as of 9 am in a Johnson County General Election. |
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g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 23 奥巴马做这么差，民进党基本盘都投不下去。同性恋们还是打了鸡血一样亢奋，一定要
投，要靠奥巴马结婚呢。 哈哈。 |
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g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 24 Yes!!! 同性恋接不成婚了，至少要再等4年。 |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 25 这老头步子迈得够大，从early voting的数据算出来的。
One of the big Wednesday morning stories will be why most of the polls didn
’t have this right. The basic answer is their model. Incredibly, in the
face of contrary evidence, a number of polls used the 2008 model for this
election although there was little objective evidence that those turnouts
would hold for this contest. This time – and early voting confirms this –
the relative Democrat/Republican split is almost even. In 2008, Democrats
outnumbered Republicans... 阅读全帖 |
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a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 26 早就说了这次就是比基本盘的turnout，到08年的水平的话，o8就赢了，反之RR有戏。 |
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l**k
发帖数: 45267 | 27 民主党下次还能再搞个AA候选人出来么，劳模也行，呵呵 |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 28 共和党也得推HISPANIC出来竞选了。
没有HISPANIC的选票，共和党没有办法赢的。 |
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j****3
发帖数: 579 | 29 如果dem推西后裔出来，估计会输，老黑不会象西医支持奥教主这样支持西医 |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 30 Black always votes for DEM in 90%. Obama just give the boost to black
turnout. |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 31 很多原因，反正GOP是没问题的，有问题的是天，是地，是DEM。
WASHINGTON -- Republicans across the country were shellshocked as President
Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Tuesday’s presidential election,
finishing the race with 332 electoral votes and winning every battleground
state except for North Carolina. The blame game began almost immediately, as
Republicans looked to determine how a vulnerable incumbent like Obama had
found a pathway to reelection.
The evidence behind the president’s victory points toward a stron... 阅读全帖 |
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a*********0
发帖数: 613 | 32 输了终于可以随便讲话，不担心得罪人了
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/14/reports-romney-
(CNN) – Mitt Romney told donors on a call Wednesday that President Barack
Obama outmatched him by offering "gifts" to African-Americans, Hispanics and
young voters, according to various news outlets.
The former Republican nominee also made similar arguments on another call
earlier in the day, CNN confirmed.
"What the president, president's campaign did was focus on certain members
of his base coalition, give them ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 33 By: Marybeth Hicks
11/13/2012 03:57 PM
It was only 7:15 last Tuesday evening when my daughter, who works in
conservative journalism, texted me to say the election was lost. For a
painful four hours, I watched the results confirm her early analysis. When
it was clear the president would be re-elected and Republican challenger
Mitt Romney had lost, I took an over-the-counter sleep aid and went to bed.
On Wednesday, I began a weeklong home improvement bender, drowning my
sorrows in a five-gallon... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 34 This article on WSJ is a good analysis on this.
Two days after the election, a friend told me that because he has an Asian
surname, he was inundated for months with emails from liberal Asian groups
urging him to vote for Barack Obama. I asked what reason the emails gave for
Asians to support Mr. Obama. Their main message: Barack Obama is "better
for minorities."
It is always useful for Republicans to revisit their "message model" to
single white women and the various Americans designated as mino... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 35 This article on WSJ is a good analysis on this.
Two days after the election, a friend told me that because he has an Asian
surname, he was inundated for months with emails from liberal Asian groups
urging him to vote for Barack Obama. I asked what reason the emails gave for
Asians to support Mr. Obama. Their main message: Barack Obama is "better
for minorities."
It is always useful for Republicans to revisit their "message model" to
single white women and the various Americans designated as mino... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 36 Two days after the election, a friend told me that because he has an Asian
surname, he was inundated for months with emails from liberal Asian groups
urging him to vote for Barack Obama. I asked what reason the emails gave for
Asians to support Mr. Obama. Their main message: Barack Obama is "better
for minorities."
It is always useful for Republicans to revisit their "message model" to
single white women and the various Americans designated as minorities.
Should the GOP kowtow to the Buffett Tax... 阅读全帖 |
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m********a
发帖数: 1041 | 37
Federal Worker Unions Face Hurdles in Staging Protest; Signs Fall Short of
Poetry
March 19, WSJ
On Wednesday, members of the American Federation of Government Employees
will rally in downtown Chicago, scene of some of history's most storied
labor protests. Their aim is to stop sequestration, the $85 billion in
across-the-board cuts to the federal budget that took effect March 1.
For many workers, this turns out not to be the most ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 by Jammie
It’s not just Southern Democrats, although the clear implication if those
racist rednecks down south hate the black guy. The way things are shaping up
for the Democrats and the scandal-drenched Obama, 2014 is shaping up to be
a bloodbath nationwide. Not just Benghazi, the IRS and DoJ scandals, but
just wait until the implosion of ObamaCare.
As Democrats try to keep their lock on the Senate next year, some of
their most vulnerable incumbents have a problem with President Barack Obam... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 39 A grassroots effort delivered an unprecedented blow to gun-control advocates.
By Charles C. W. Cooke
Colorado Springs — Despite the media’s insistence that the Colorado
recalls were the first skirmish in a new proxy war between the National
Rifle Association and New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, the simple truth is
that Tuesday’s stunning elections were prompted and won by forces on the
ground. At the Stargazers Theatre last night, I sat with those forces as a
famous victory unfolded. Speaking ... 阅读全帖 |
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a**e
发帖数: 8800 | 40 Black Pastors Help Rand Paul Divine That Voter ID Laws Are 'Offending People'
Sen. Rand Paul is now a disciple of the anti-voter ID movement, after the
black pastors he met with on Friday showed him the way and the truth about
measures that tend to decrease minority voter turnout. After meeting with
the pastors, Paul shared the good news with Jeremy W. Peters of The New York
Times: the GOP needs to "lay off" the whole voter ID laws thing, according
to Peters. "It's offending people," Paul said.
... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 41 ‘Salute The Tea Party Of Texas’: Tea Party Candidates Win Big In Primary
Runoff
May 28, 2014 5:36 AM
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Republican voters appeared ready to push Texas even
further to the right Tuesday, backing Tea Party favorites and casting out
longtime Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for a state senator and firebrand radio
talk show host who criticized the incumbent as too moderate for one of the
state’s most powerful political jobs.
Dan Patrick, who emerged as the front runner from the first round ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 42 Judge: NC vote can be held with GOP-backed changes
August 8, 2014 - 6:35 PM
By MICHAEL BIESECKER and GARY D. ROBERTSON,
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — A federal judge has ruled North Carolina's election in
November can be held under a new voting law approved by Republican
lawmakers.
The law is considered one of the toughest in the nation.
U.S. District Court Judge Thomas D. Schroeder on Friday denied a motion
seeking to hold the November vote under old rules. A coalition of groups,
including the League of... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******p
发帖数: 2525 | 43 未免楼主说只是个例，我再把第三个德州的也列出来吧：
Starr County, Texas
Starr County has long been a strongly Democratic county but suffers from low
voter turnout with only approximately 20% of its 53,000 residents voting.
No Republican has won the county in over a century[ |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 44 Democrat Email: ‘Sign our note to President Obama thanking him for all he’
s done’
by Jammie via Jammie Wearing Fools
You can’t make this stuff up.
Okay guys – this @dccc email is so ridiculous I put it in a google doc
for all who aren't on their list. ENJOY https://t.co/Ys0i5OZbAf
— Shoshana Weissmann (@senatorshoshana) November 5, 2014
Yes, it’s really bad.
Harry Reid blocked bills so Obama wouldn't look bad by vetoing. @dccc
ends "we lost" email asking you to thank Obama https://t... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 45 【 以下文字转载自 LosAngeles 讨论区 】
发信人: zhanglaosan (张老三), 信区: LosAngeles
标 题: 从这次选举看一下华人选票的重要性
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov 6 00:49:46 2014, 美东)
加州期中考试选举尘埃落定，民主党在state senate确定失去了super majority，
state assembly依然有五个区too close to call，但是其中两个区共和党微幅领先，
有望拿下
那么，这次选举中，华人的表现如何呢？据估算，这次洛杉矶县的投票率只有25%，橙
县30%左右，如果之前有人说的华裔20%，那么相比之下这个比例不算太寒碜。
那么，华人的选票究竟有用没有呢？
事实：
橙县的两个选区，共和党重夺席位，靠的就是亚裔。当然这里边有越南裔韩裔。洛杉矶
主流媒体也都纷纷表示，橙县的这两个翻盘是这次民主党失去super majority的关键原
因，其中主要原因归功共和党开始重视亚裔，并且认同亚裔开始更多关注中产阶级关心
的内容，共和党智库也认为他们终于结束了head scratchin... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****o
发帖数: 6080 | 46 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/26/us-usa-congress-obama
这如果不算为一党权力出卖国家，什么算？
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Wednesday told Latinos that
Republicans were to blame for holding up changes to U.S. immigration laws,
urging them to hold Republicans accountable for the problems in the 2016
presidential election.
Speaking on the home turf of Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who is
considering a run for the Republican presidential nomination, Obama told
young members of Miami’s Latino ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 47 Supreme Court rejects challenge to Wisconsin voter ID law
March 23, 2015 - 5:37 PM
Associated Press
MADISON, Wis. (AP) — The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday turned away a
challenge to Wisconsin's voter identification law, allowing the law to stand
and handing a victory to Gov. Scott Walker following a long fight by
opponents who say it's a thinly veiled attempt to make it more difficult for
Democratic backers to vote.
The law won't be enforced for an April 7 election because it's only two
weeks awa... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 48 Here’s Why Donald Trump Really Could Be Elected President
Forget what the party elites and pundits have been saying—Trump has a
pretty clear path to not just the Republican nomination, but also the White
House.
From Brentwood mansions to Embassy Row in Washington, D.C., the idea that
Donald Trump could become president has alternately set off fits of laughter
and terror. While some political insiders, including a growing number of
establishment Republicans, concede that Trump could win the nomin... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 49 这算一家之言吧，认为trump效应影响了KENTUCKY州长选举。另外KENTUCKY是红州，共
和党赢了不稀罕。但trump效应导致茶党turnout高倒是值得注意的。
Democrats stunned by Matt Bevin’s victory in the race for Kentucky governor
blamed “Trump-mania” for the Tea Party candidate’s unlikely 53%-44% win
over Democrat Jack Conway.
“Attorney General Jack Conway ran a strong campaign focused on the issues
that matter to Kentuckians: good schools, good-paying jobs and economic
opportunity,” said Elisabeth Pearson, executive director of the Democratic
Governors Associat... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 608 | 50 Trump的反应真快，说那个家伙overweight，难怪提到foodstamp就抓狂，笑死人啦。话
说在麻州这个民主党老巢搞共和党的rally，Trump真挺有勇气，而且turnout也算很不
错了。 |
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