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USANews版 - Bipartisan Ohio Poll Shows Romney Heading To “Decisive Victory”
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话题: romney话题: voters话题: vote话题: obama话题: democrats
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l****z
发帖数: 29846
1
October 30, 2012 Doug Johnson
The new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of
1,000 likely Ohio voters – taken from last Monday through Thursday – shows
Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. That
represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but
reflects a race that remains statistically tied. Even the swing is within
the margin of error, so it is possible the candidates were tied last week
when Romney lead by 2 percent.
But that’s not the real story. For that you’ve got to read the notes from
lead pollsters Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber who note that the “internals”
bode very poorly for President Obama.
Here’s a summary of their final point:
The Presidential Ballot – the race continues to be closer than a knife
fight in a
phone both – or does it?
The race continues to be close when looking at the top-line data. On one
hand, President Obama leads on the overall ballot by one-point (49%-48%).
On the other hand, amongst voters making a definite choice, Romney has a one
-point advantage (43%-42%). However, when you look past that top-line data,
most all, if not all the key factors weigh in Mitt Romney’s favor.
Among those most likely to vote – the combination of those saying they
have already voted (15% of the Electorate) and those who say that they are
extremely likely to vote (67% of the Electorate) – Romney has a five-point
advantage (51%-46%). Obama has an eight-point advantage (53%-45%) among
those who have already voted while Romney has a nine-point advantage (53%-44
%) among those who say they are extremely likely to vote.
Two key points on this data. First, let’s focus on the eight-point
advantage Obama has on the early vote.
Four years ago on that same data point within our Battleground Poll,
Candidate Barack Obama had a fifteen point advantage with early voters,
nearly double that of his current vote margin (matching with reports from
the ground that the traditional early vote advantage of the Democrats has
been largely minimized, as in states like Ohio and Virginia, if not reversed
, as in states like Colorado and Florida). Secondly, we have found the
combination of those who have already voted and those who are extremely
likely to vote, to be the best quick look at the probable participants (i.e.
actual voters) in an upcoming election. In the 2008 election, the
combination of those two voter groups – those who have already voted and
these who were extremely likely to vote – were within a half of a point of
the final results.
Among other high propensity-voting blocs, Romney is receiving majority
support from seniors (55%), college graduates (50%), married voters (58%),
weekly church attendees (58%), white Evangelicals (72%), and gun owner
households (65%). Romney is also getting strong support from typical swing
demographic groups like Independents (50% to 40%) and Catholics (55% to 42%)
. Most important, over the last week Mitt Romney continued to increase his
vote advantage with three key voter blocks we have been tracking throughout
the last six weeks of polling – middle class voters which Romney has a 52%
to 45% lead, middle class families which Romney now leads by 58% to 39%, and
the all important “Pocketbook” voters which Romney now leads by 56% to 41
%.
In contrast, much of the President’s coalition is built on strong
support from lower propensity voters like urban voters (63%), Hispanic
voters (61%), those with less than a high school education (67%), low income
voters (61%), and those who just say they are very likely to vote (59%).
Should this election not have the same turnout pattern as 2008 and be more
evenly distributed between Republicans and Democrats as it was in 2004, much
the President’s winning coalition will be minimized. When looking at the
intensity measurements (Republicans now +10 over Democrats), combined with
the underlying negative feelings voters hold about the direction of the
country and the economy, an electorate that looks more like 2004 is becoming
increasingly likely.
The intensity gap disadvantage and the vote banking efforts of the
Democrats will continue to present a significant strategic challenge for his
campaign. The Democrats are turning out their base supporters via early
voting efforts. However, the President still needs strong support from soft
supporters of the Democratic Party to win. While the majority of the
electorate intensely believes that the country is on the wrong track, a
majority (57%) of soft Democrats believe that the country is headed in the
right direction.
These base supporters want to hear that the next four years will be more
of the same while the majority of voters want to be assured that a
different course is coming – a near impossible task for Barack Obama in the
final week of the campaign.
In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the
surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely
electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “
vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote
intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics
like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney
leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can
certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the
field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be
heading to a decisive victory.
As much of New York is suffering hurricane-related blackouts, the 538 magic-
bullshit-spewing machine could not be reached for comment…
S******4
发帖数: 2865
2
Sorry to bust your day dream again.
Author of the above BS: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber in The Tarrance Group.
The Tarrance Group: A national Republican polling firm.
If I really want to know the "truth", I will just ignore that BS you just
posted.
P*O
发帖数: 4324
3
自个儿记着,等选举结果出来了,看谁最准,下回就认它。Ohio俺看好Romney要赢了。
弄虚作假是民猪党的最爱,所以真想要看truth,劝您接受现实,表看民主党的poll.不
过民主党好像比共和党热心搞polls, 前阵子把八马搞得很high。
z******a
发帖数: 5381
4
总就业人数减少了,可失业率却越来越低。这种统计绝世武功,用到这种小poll里面
那不是激光炮打蚊子?

【在 P*O 的大作中提到】
: 自个儿记着,等选举结果出来了,看谁最准,下回就认它。Ohio俺看好Romney要赢了。
: 弄虚作假是民猪党的最爱,所以真想要看truth,劝您接受现实,表看民主党的poll.不
: 过民主党好像比共和党热心搞polls, 前阵子把八马搞得很high。

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