w**********5
发帖数: 1741 | 1 12. Memorandum of Conversation1
Beijing, February 17–18, 1973, 11:30 p.m.–1:20 a.m.
PARTICIPANTS
Mao Tsetung, Chairman, Politburo, Chinese Communist Party
Chou En-lai, Premier of the State Council
Wang Hai-jung, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs
Tang Wen-sheng, Interpreter
Shen Jo-yun, Interpreter
Dr. Henry A. Kissinger, Assistant to the President for National Security
Affairs
Winston Lord, NSC Staff
(At 11:00 p.m. February 17, 1973 at a meeting in a villa near the Guest
House where Dr. Kiss... 阅读全帖 |
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d********a
发帖数: 3698 | 2 人气:873 时间:2011-02-21 13:02:04
http://15656605.blog.hexun.com/61536062_d.html
钱学深
2011-02-19
本周白银实现了向上强势突破。黄金也随之反攻。白银一周内上涨7.79%。涨势惊人。
黄金也上涨了2.07%。但白银显然是开路先锋。
截至2月15日的纽约期交所交易者持仓报告显示之前一周空方和多方都在增加兵力。投
机者中做多的明显多于做空的。而大银行和银矿则正好相反，明显想打压多方的气势。
从总体看双方兵力大体势均力敌。空方略占上风。但15日后市场风云突变，多方强势突
破。空方惨遭挟仓。据报交易市场已下令将保证金再次提高50%以免强行平仓。这对空
头来讲形式很不利。多方要是穷追不舍，空方恐难招架。摩根大通和汇丰银行这些个空
头司令现在可能是坐卧不安。汗如雨下。当年贝尔斯登就是这样一口气没倒过来，一命
归天。
关于贝尔斯登临终前的情形，货币战争3---金融高边疆第10章中有过一段生动的描述，
引用如下：
“在AIG之后，白银市场的主要操纵者变成了贝尔斯登，就在2008年3月17日贝尔斯登垮
台的当天，白银创下了... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********d
发帖数: 9770 | 3 http://cn.nytimes.com/business/20160330/c30mag-hedgefund1/dual/
The Fall of China’s Hedge Fund King
By ALEX W. PALMER March 30, 2016
中国“私募一哥”的覆灭
ALEX W. PALMER 2016年3月30日
At 10:33 a.m. on Sunday, Nov. 1 of last year, the highway police in Ningbo,
an industrial city on China’s eastern coast, posted a seemingly innocuous
message to their official microblog. “Due to sudden traffic control,” the
message read, “all the entrances and exits of the G15 Expressway at
Hangzhou Bay Bridge have been closed.... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 4 三胖现在身体很糟糕。说不定哪天就挂掉了。三胖真的该减肥了。
US, South Korean intelligence probe reports of Kim Jong Un health woes
As U.S. and South Korean intelligence teams investigate the sincerity of Kim
Jong Un's newfound willingness to engage in a denuclearization dialogue
, they are also tracking reports the North Korean dictator is dealing with a
variety of health issues.
While there is little hard medical evidence, according to sources, Kim's
family history, physical appearance and behavior in recent years have led
... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 November 13, 2012
As our Lady Liberty reported yesterday, General Petraeus’ alleged mistress,
Paula Broadwell, told an audience last month that the American CIA was
using the Benghazi annex of the US Consulate to detain al-Qaeda prisoners
from Libya as well as from other areas in Africa. The CIA has denied these
claims of course, but Fox News is now reporting that independent sources
have confirmed that the CIA had been holding at least three Libyans prisoner
in the annex “for days” before the ... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 6 By DAVID A. STOCKMAN
GREENWICH, Conn. -- The Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s 500 indexes reached
record highs on Thursday, having completely erased the losses since the
stock market’s last peak, in 2007. But instead of cheering, we should be
very afraid.
David Stockman
Over the last 13 years, the stock market has twice crashed and touched off a
recession: American households lost $5 trillion in the 2000 dot-com bust
and more than $7 trillion in the 2007 housing crash. Sooner or later —
within a ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 7 Witch Hunt is On; Foolish Ideas on Stopping the Shanghai Carnage; US Bubble
Will Burst Too
Nearly 1,800 stocks, over 60% of issues traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen
stock exchanges fell by the daily limit of 10% and were halted according to
a Financial Times report.
When contacted by the Financial Times, the China Securities Regulatory
Commission refused to answer any questions.
The amusing comment of the day comes from Zhu Ning, deputy dean at Shanghai
Advanced Institute of Finance: “If [the ... 阅读全帖 |
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 8
There are no speculators in financial market.
There are only investors. Some successful investors call themselves
speculators, coz that sounds get-rich-quick and attracts more money,
like goodbug. Some unsuccessful investors also call themselves
speculators, coz they are deep under water, wouldn't cut loss and pray
they can break even one day, and being "speculators" makes them
feel smarter. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 9 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2142866/JPMorgan-Chase-
Revealed: London trader known as 'Voldemort' who is suspected of blowing
bank's staggering $2billion lossFrench-born, British-based Bruno Michel
Iksil believed to be responsible
Dubbed the 'London Whale', be bragged 'he could walk on water'
Believed to be part of Chief Investment Office at heart of bank's losses
Ina Drew, boss of CIO, was paid $14million last year
Shares in British banks fall: Barclays, RBS and Lloyds all hit
By Dai... 阅读全帖 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 10 是invest or speculate。
如果你是做invest，那你盯着什么盘？你要看的是大趋势，要vision的远，早上那种动
都没动，就瀑布啦，逃走啦，很弱，很弱。
如果你做的是speculate，那你要死死地盯盘，看准趋势，做swing。
问题是，现在大家以为自己是invest，做法是speculate，以为是speculate，做法是
invest。
嗯。
本繁殖推荐大家，特别是做invest的，试着不看盘几天，学到的心态上的东西，将会让
你受益终生。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 11
Look at the COT chart. There are too many speculators in the silver
market, even more than the gold market. Big buyers would not want to
enter the market when too many speculators already drive the price
high so we now have a market structure of speculators VS PET. PET
usually beats speculators down, and then big buyers may come back
to the buy side after that. |
|
b******i
发帖数: 4776 | 12 By Nesa Subrahmaniyan - May 6, 2008 12:27 EDT
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel
within two years as growth in supply fails to keep pace with increased
demand from developing nations, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by
Arjun N. Murti said in a report.
New York-based Murti first wrote of a ``super spike'' in March 2005, when he
said oil prices could range between $50 and $105 a barrel through 2009. The
price of crude traded in New York averaged $56.71 ... 阅读全帖 |
|
C**********i
发帖数: 694 | 13 看了Schumer 上周二说的，让人很是担心啊~
“I’m not going to debate and speculate, or get into speculatives,” he
said. “I would very much like to see it in the bill. But we have to have a
bill that has support” in order to even debate whether to include the
amendment
松口了啊，这话我听着是投不投赞成都有可能啊，虽然他表态不想投。
所以还是要等到Mark Up这项那天才能知道，反正也就是下周呗。
只要mark up不进去，这Bill在Senate就安全了，看House怎么反应了。要是Mark up进
去了，House也就不用反应了，反正最后会挂，估计House那边也等结果呢。
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/05/09
“Reporters and close observer... 阅读全帖 |
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z********0
发帖数: 9013 | 14 Happen to see this interesting article. (maybe it's old)
http://www.sportsscientists.com/2008/10/15959-sub-2-hour-marathon.html
1:59:59...will we ever see a sub-2 hour marathon?
It's been just over a week now since Haile Gebrselassie ran himself into
history (again) when he broke his own world record by running 2:03:59 in
Berlin. More important, he also broke the 2:04 barrier, which gave even more
impetus to the usual speculation that accompanies a world record. At the
time, I wrote that we'd lo... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 15 This series of articles describes a model for player development that I call
Stages Of A TAG. I think most players go through a series of stages or
realizations about no-limit hold’em as they improve their games from rank
beginners to decent tight-aggressive (TAG) players and beyond.
In total I have identified 25 stages that I think most players go through,
roughly in order, as they improve. This article begins with Stage 6.
Stage 6. I can semibluff decent draws postflop with essentially no adde... 阅读全帖 |
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E*******r
发帖数: 520 | 16 How to Crush Live $1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em
No-Limit Texas Hold'em is by far the most popular poker game being played in
casino poker rooms.
Without a doubt, your average table features a motley crew of fish waiting
to give their money away.
With a little help from this article, you'll get your fair share of it.
The Game
The game is $1/$2 No-Limit Texas Hold'em, the Chevrolet Cavalier of poker.
The minimum buy-in is $40 and the max $200.
$1/$2 is the smallest No-Limit game run in most casinos and f... 阅读全帖 |
|
h***e
发帖数: 20195 | 17 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: dafemrenla (dafemrenla), 信区: Military
标 题: 2月18日评论---共匪对白银市场发起了“大扫荡
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Feb 22 13:54:21 2011, 美东)
人气:873 时间:2011-02-21 13:02:04
http://15656605.blog.hexun.com/61536062_d.html
钱学深
2011-02-19
本周白银实现了向上强势突破。黄金也随之反攻。白银一周内上涨7.79%。涨势惊人。
黄金也上涨了2.07%。但白银显然是开路先锋。
截至2月15日的纽约期交所交易者持仓报告显示之前一周空方和多方都在增加兵力。投
机者中做多的明显多于做空的。而大银行和银矿则正好相反，明显想打压多方的气势。
从总体看双方兵力大体势均力敌。空方略占上风。但15日后市场风云突变，多方强势突
破。空方惨遭挟仓。据报交易市场已下令将保证金再次提高50%以免强行平仓。这对空
头来讲形式很不利。多方要是穷追不舍，空方恐难招架。摩根大通和汇丰银行这些个空
... 阅读全帖 |
|
s**i
发帖数: 4448 | 18 因为法庭只接受事实和逻辑。不接受speculation.
再给你一个别人的解释帮你理解下什么是speculation: Generally speaking, a
witness can give evidence about what he knows, what he saw, what he heard,
but he can’t give his own guesses or speculations or inferences in evidence
. So I can give evidence, e.g. that you hit me, and that you appeared very
angry when you did so, but I can’t give evidence that the reason you hit me
was because you were jealous of my stunning good looks and my superior
scoring rate with women, because that would b... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 19 Witch Hunt is On; Foolish Ideas on Stopping the Shanghai Carnage; US Bubble
Will Burst Too
Nearly 1,800 stocks, over 60% of issues traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen
stock exchanges fell by the daily limit of 10% and were halted according to
a Financial Times report.
When contacted by the Financial Times, the China Securities Regulatory
Commission refused to answer any questions.
The amusing comment of the day comes from Zhu Ning, deputy dean at Shanghai
Advanced Institute of Finance: “If [the ... 阅读全帖 |
|
G*******s
发帖数: 4956 | 20 首先给大家看个故事，然后再探讨经文：
林慈信牧师的《基督教教义发展史》中提到这个：
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_622134fd01013i7l.html
基督论的发展史(1)：基督论的争辩
HISTORY OF THE DOCTRINE OF CHRIST (1):
The Christological Controversies
(Louis Berkhof, A History of Christian Doctrines, pp. 101ff.)
基督论与三位一体之问题的关联
Connection of Christological and Trinitarian Problems
基督论的难题可以从一般神学（译注：神论）方面，与拯救论方面来加以
研究。早期教父对基督论拯救方面的关系，虽未曾加以轻忽，但他们在重要的讨论上却
没有重视。在三位一体争论的气氛中，他们从一般神学（译注：神论）方面来研究基督
，乃天经地义的事，而三位一体争论所导致的决定则是，基督为神的儿子，事与父同质
的，因此祂是神。从此而发生的问题，就是基督... 阅读全帖 |
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i*****s
发帖数: 15215 | 21 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
arita (in woundedland) 于 (Tue Sep 25 12:55:19 2012, 美东) 提到:
原始贴名叫：看李冰冰的贴养成了“坏”毛病。后来扩展为蜘蛛日记的续集，最后定名
为“和李大师一起跟踪蜘蛛【第二季】”。
看第一季，请参见“【图片记录】跟踪蜘蛛30天”。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Animals/22697.html
==============================================
发信人: arita (in woundedland), 信区: Animals
标 题: 看李冰冰的贴养成了“坏”毛病
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 25 12:55:19 2012, 美东)
怎么办，30天被惯出了个“坏”毛病。就是每天有事没事都要看看，看到了更新和图片
就踏实了。今天还是习惯性地看，但是再没有更新了，心里空落落的。李冰冰，你家里
的闭合食物链上还有别的生物吧！赶紧。
注：这个帖子既... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 22 U.S. 10-Year Notes Drop on Bets Japan to Buy Shorter Maturities
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year notes fell for the first time in
three days on speculation Japan will buy shorter- term U.S. government debt
after selling the yen for the first time since 2004 to support its economy.
The added yield investors demand to hold 10-year notes over 2-year
securities increased to within 5 basis points of the highest level since the
Federal Reserve announced last month t... 阅读全帖 |
|
y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 23 11:55 Do you think there is > 50% chance someone buys HGSI in next 12 mos.?
Yes
( 68% )No
( 32% )
Thursday October 20, 2011 11:55
11:56 adam feuerstein: Hello! Welcome to the October edition of Biotech
Stock Live Chat.
Thursday October 20, 2011 11:56 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: hi everyone
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: I'll get started in a minute or so, let folks log in
.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuers... 阅读全帖 |
|
l*****r
发帖数: 131 | 24 美联社报道称（主要要点大意），王立军(专题)的打黑可能因为没有按正常程序进行而
失宠，他寻求政治庇护的消息无法核实。
王立军(专题)近期的职务调整引起关注，周三网上关于他到美领馆寻求政治庇护的
消息引起轰动。在华盛顿，美国国务院发言人Victoria Nuland确认了上述情况，王立
军(专题)找到美国领馆并和美方人员进行了会谈。Victoria Nuland称王立军自己离开
了领馆，她对王立军是否寻求政治庇护拒绝评论。她说，据她所知，领事在会谈后再也
没有和王立军取得联系。
美联社的报道对王立军和薄熙来的情况进行了阐述，称薄熙来在断绝和红歌、打黑
幕后推手的联系，希望在政治仕途上继续提升。
BEIJING (AP) – The former top cop of a major Chinese city has dropped
from sight amid unconfirmed reports he is seeking U.S. asylum following a
quarrel with one of China's most powerful local politici... 阅读全帖 |
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f****r
发帖数: 5118 | 25 懂信号处理的帮忙分析一下 Wow Signal，俺以前懂，现在虾米了
这个东西说不定正往地球飞过来呢
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal
The Wow! signal was a strong narrowband radio signal detected by Dr. Jerry R
. Ehman on August 15, 1977, while working on a SETI project at The Big Ear
radio telescope of The Ohio State University.[1] The signal bore expected
hallmarks of potential non-terrestrial and non-solar system origin. It
lasted for the full 72 second duration that Big Ear observed it, but has
not been detected again. Much attenti... 阅读全帖 |
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y***u
发帖数: 7039 | 26 第六章 获得其他国家权力的技巧 （2）
那些国家的皇权， 士大夫们，由于无法理解这些，将很快（在债务负担的重压下），
变得无法反抗。
同时， 我们必须大量的投资商业和工业， 但是首先最重要的是，在另一端提供投机市
场。 因为缺乏投机市场， 将有助于成倍增加私人手中的资本， 从而使农业恢复，土
地集中，形成大地主和土地银行 （也就是说皇权和士大夫拥有土地和自我循环的土地
银行将是最大的威胁）。 投机市场的目的就是抽走劳动力和资本，是他们再次一无所
有。 （比如爆炒股市，楼市，推高汇率， 使得城市工作的劳动力成本增高，同时通过
股市楼市，没收工业资本， 这不正是东南亚，日本，南美，可能中国，发生过或者正
在发生的吗？）。
The aristocrats of the GOYIM, being hereditarily incapable of contenting
themselves with little, will rapidly burn up and fizzle out.
At the same time we must intensively patronize trad... 阅读全帖 |
|
m**p
发帖数: 2471 | 27 http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/11/world/asia/china-vice-president/i
Absence of Chinese vice president fuels intrigue before power transition
Beijing (CNN) -- The conspicuous absence from public view of China's
presumptive next top leader is adding new uncertainty to the succession plan
for the normally secretive Communist leadership.
For ten days, Vice President Xi Jinping has dropped off the radar of state-
run domestic news media, which usually meticulously record official
activities of senior lea... 阅读全帖 |
|
C*I
发帖数: 4736 | 28 党政军三大巨头一齐突然出现在汉城，现在世界各国政府都来不及反应。但cnn和bbc都
很shock，认为朝鲜肯定发生了大事，但这大事到底是什么不得而知。
不过，如果金三挂了或者被圈了，那这三大巨头一起到南韩后谁在朝鲜当家呢？ 也就
是说，不可能朝鲜现在没有人看家而三大巨头敢同时出来。
如是说来，金三估计还在，而且已经度过了危险期。当然，这是我瞎猜的了。
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/04/world/asia/north-korea-officials-
Seoul (CNN) -- With Kim Jong Un out of sight for a month, three North Korean
officials popped down to South Korea for a last-minute visit Saturday.
And they delivered a diplomatic bonbon.
The three officials told South Korea that Pyongyang is willing to hold ... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*******r
发帖数: 527 | 29 Being gay is nothing wrong. However, closeted gay speculation has been
commonly used to strike a negative coercive impression. A couple years ago,
a conservative newspaper announced that Obama has not only been in a
homosexual relationship with his old roommate, he actually married him and
his real marriage is a sham. So I totally understand people perceive this
book to be negative.
I simply think speculating some old a dead respected political figure a
closeted gay man by read between lines in... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****e
发帖数: 737 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: coollpe (coollpe), 信区: Stock
标 题: 中国央行彻底打爆人民币空头: 对冲基金亏得裤子都没了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 15 10:06:16 2016, 美东)
Hedge funds lose US$562 mln in renminbi bets
Hedge funds and other speculators are losing big in a bruising battle with
Chinese regulators over the renminbi.
Seven months after a shock devaluation spurred them to wager on further
declines, the yuan’s unexpected resilience has turned many of those bets
into losses, Bloomberg reports.
At least US$562 million of opt... 阅读全帖 |
|
W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 31 'Emperor' stocks soar in China as Xi cleared for indefinite reign
Chinese speculators pounced on stocks with "emperor" in their name
on Monday, after the ruling Communist Party set the stage for President Xi
Jinping to stay in office indefinitely.
The party proposed on Sunday to remove a constitutional clause limiting
presidential service to just two terms in office, boosting prospects of Xi
remaining in power after the end of an all but certain second term set to
start next month.
Shenz... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 32 By Howard Richman, Raymond Richman, and Jesse Richman
The latest house price data (the S&P Case-Shiller index) shows a clear
downward trend for the most recent six months, as shown in the graph below:
The next graph shows how this year's data fits in with the long-term trend.
It is clear that the house price bubble, which began in 1997 and peaked in
2006, has not yet finished popping:
How We Got Here
The black stars in the above graph highlight 1951 and 1997, the two years
when Congress changed ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 33 By Steve McCann
Gasoline has exceeded or approached $5.00 per gallon in some parts of the
United States long before the normal peak travel season has begun. Already
the politicians, headline writers, and some cable and talk show pundits are
pointing to the usual suspects. But they have avoided or are unaware of
where the fault actually lies.
One of the foundational tenets of economics is what is known as the law of
supply and demand. Normally whenever a product or commodity is in short
supply... 阅读全帖 |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 34
1. 对于这件事情我一开始的心情是愤怒的，当你面对一份电子版paper，affiliation
隐去，第二作者改掉，如果这是你招的学生，你的最好的猜测应该也是盗用paper吧？
为了能处理好这件事情，作为一个毫无这类经验的faculty，我选择了发帖求教。也非
常直白的表达我的心情，如下：
“一件让我震惊的事情 发现一个中国学生简历造假，99%肯定是这名学生用了另一个同
名学生的paper作为他的 publication”
It turned out your initial speculation was wrong, even you used "99%".
But you had already made up your mind of firing this student.
To me, you just don't want to admit it and try hard to justify your decition
even most of which was based on your wrong speculation.
"affiliation 隐去，第二作... 阅读全帖 |
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n****m
发帖数: 1283 | 35 "公开资料显示这种可能性很大" You are speculating.
Since you are speculating as well, why others are not allowed to speculate? |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 36 There are only speculators. Some successful speculators call themselves
investors, coz that sounds risk-averse and attracts more money, like
Buffet. Some unsuccessful speculators also call themselves investors,
coz they are deep under water, wouldn't cut loss and pray they can
break even one day, and being "investors" makes them feel better. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 37 people can use whatever definition they want
when you "invest" in a business which has its cash flow, most likely you
are speculating this business can grow its value with increasing cash
flow in the future, which may or may not be realized.
call it whatever you want, the speculation part is not a bit less.
in fact, those fixed income ones may look much less speculative as people
are most likely seeking yields there. |
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i**e
发帖数: 19242 | 38 ft! (跟名牌对灌就是有压力呀，还得注意5讲4美3热爱什么的，太抒情的词都不敢拿来
造次 :))
这个，我实在是看不下去了！
你好歹也但了个就事论事，讲理有正义感的美名吧
作为名牌，你说话做事至少也得维护你的美名，对得起这个称号吧？
在pacmom发”校车上的事“之前，你怎么speculate（我也有干）都不算过分，
之后，你还这样说，在我看来就过了。
她家老二打女孩那次，确实是bully 性质行为，
在没有任何其他的证据说明这个孩子屡教不该之前，
就给人家孩子贴个bully的标签，给母亲铁上bully的家长，
是不是不够就事论事？是不是不够通情达理？
按照你的道理，名牌这样说，不明真相的群众也会跟着这么叫地，对不对？
名牌一定要注意自己的舆论导向奥 :)
我自己的看法（一定主观，肯定不会强求任何人同意）
pacmom自己小时候也是个受欺负的，处理这些事情的时候，自然会受其经历影响
//谁又不是呢？总有那么不走运的么
她已经在很尽力地想把俩个儿子的事处理好（pacdad又是个简单粗暴不管事的）
心里也很急的，也是愿意听建议愿意改进的
我看speculate的人多，给人家出点子真正想想... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******l
发帖数: 4637 | 39 别躲啊，就这么逃避关键问题啊。
Speculation就是speculation。跟据speculation 来make hurtful accusation, 怎么
就不是道德的情操问题？
一点不虚伪啊。当事人在频频抗议，呼救。好比我们看play ground 有bully，有点责
任心的父母都会干预。 |
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t*******r
发帖数: 22634 | 40 上面这些 idea，其实可以类比成 tactical engagement 的理论。
或者说，任何基于 speculation（即使是 plausible speculation）的
decision，都有相当高的 mistake rate。这个理论上无解。
但是现实世界里，大部分 decision，都是基于 incomplete information，
（否则从 HomeDepot 门口找两个人肉计算器即可）。基于 incomplete
information 实际上就是或多或少的基于 speculation。
但这玩意儿虽然没有理论解，但是现实世界等着 practical solution 的
米来下锅。即使没有真正意义上的 practical solution，那么搞个 practical
compromisation 的半成品出货，客户买不到成品也就不得不买账。
而其中的一种 practical compromisation，就是 make immediate outcome
of such decision untestable thus unverifiable (by ... 阅读全帖 |
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a********a
发帖数: 99 | 41 # Gann, W.D. - Mathematical Formula For Market Predictions.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Wall Street Stock Selector.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Method for forcasting the stock market.doc
# Gann, W.D. - 1922 Forecast.gif
# Gann, W.D. - 45 Years In Wall Street.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Annual Forecasts 1919-1922.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Annual Stock Forecast 1929.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology 2.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology 3.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Circle Chart.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Coffee 1954.pdf
# Gann, W.D... 阅读全帖 |
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b*p
发帖数: 242 | 42 旧闻，回过头来看，华尔街真是会给人吃药啊，而且水平就是高。面面俱到，痛陈利弊。
" The Navteq acquisition is negative in the short term,'' said Jesper Kruger
, who helps manage about $64 billion at ATP in Copenhagen. ``Nokia has paid
an extremely high multiple. After a fantastic 2007 performance, you can
expect to see Nokia stock to take a breather.'' Before today, Nokia shares
had risen 72 percent this year."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayyeY1gI
Nokia to Buy Navteq for $8.1 Billion, Take on TomTom (Update7)
... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 43 CICC Says Global Banks Too Bullish on China Stocks as Pimco Buys
April 14, 2011, 1:22 PM EDT
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- China’s biggest investment bank is turning “
cautious” on the country’s stocks, just as six of its overseas rivals and
the manager of the largest mutual fund say it’s time to buy.
China International Capital Corp. predicts slowing economic and earnings
growth will limit equity gains after the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
rose 6.2 percent this year, the best advance among majo... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 44 Silver is the best performer this year on the Standard &
Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities. The metal led the way in
April as commodities beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a
fifth straight month, the longest stretch in at least 14 years.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators cut their
net-long positions in New York silver futures by 26 percent in
the week ended April 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data.
Speculative long positions, or bets... 阅读全帖 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 45 Well said. To bet on the commodity derivative is a pure speculation on
a negative sum game.
It is not a good game for normal investors. There is better way to bet
on the commodity if you do believe the commodity price will rise. For
example, you can buy "GOLD" (Randgold Resources Ltd) if you want to bet
that the gold price will continue to rise.
Anyway, derivative has its own merits to attract speculators since it
usually will provide very high leverage than other equities.
speculators.... 阅读全帖 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 46
If you don't pay people a worthy rate then they 有动力去 move the money
out of the bank to a worthy place, such as gold and silver. You cannot
force people to invest, period.
If the rate is artificially low then you drive money to where it should
NOT be, and that's capital mis-allocation rather than sound investment.
The end result is a speculative bubble and an inevitable collapse.
Case in point - Bush's housing bubble. Bush inherited a NASDAQ crash
from Clinton and didn't like it. What did he do?... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 47 Large speculators: those funds who sold massively last year and this year at
the bottom
Small speculators: small guys who did nothing last year but kept buying this
year since March
Commercial: MM who kept buying last year but swiched to selling since April
of this year.
It seems that commercial players have grabed the positions from large
specualtors last year at low and dumped them to small speculators this year
so far.
Which group have you been with? |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 48 All eyes on Apple Inc.
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt April 23, 2013: 8:26 AM ET
6
Email Print
Its quarterly earnings report is a reality check on three months of
speculation.
Screen Shot 2013-04-23 at 7.59.18 AMFORTUNE -- Today at about 4:30 p.m.
Eastern, Apple (AAPL) will report its results for the March quarter, and the
fog of rumors and speculation that has swirled around the company since
January will lift -- if only for a day or two.
This is Apple's quarterly reality check, its chance ... 阅读全帖 |
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