l**********1
发帖数: 5204 | 1 生物统计的入门教材之一 哈 of course english version:
http://www.roma1.infn.it/~dagos/rpp/
Introduction
Uncertainty and probability
Rules of probability
Probability of simple propositions
Probability of complete classes
Probability rules for uncertain variables
Bayesian inference for simple problems
Background information
Bayes' theorem
Inference for simple hypotheses
Inferring numerical values of physics quantities -- General ideas and basic
examples
Bayesian inference on uncertain variables and posterior ... 阅读全帖 |
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D*a
发帖数: 6830 | 2 原标题： A bridge to business
Peter Fiske
Nature 530, 243–245 (11 February 2016) doi:10.1038/nj7589-243a
PhD holders should not underestimate their value to industry and the
business sector, says Peter Fiske.
Subject terms: Careers Business Education
The glossy poster at my university career planning and placement centre both
intrigued and perplexed me: “PhDs: come learn about a career in management
consulting — recruiting reception tonight!”
As a PhD student in geology, I was dimly aware of the nam... 阅读全帖 |
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D*a
发帖数: 6830 | 3 原标题： A bridge to business
Peter Fiske
Nature 530, 243–245 (11 February 2016) doi:10.1038/nj7589-243a
PhD holders should not underestimate their value to industry and the
business sector, says Peter Fiske.
Subject terms: Careers Business Education
The glossy poster at my university career planning and placement centre both
intrigued and perplexed me: “PhDs: come learn about a career in management
consulting — recruiting reception tonight!”
As a PhD student in geology, I was dimly aware of the nam... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****d
发帖数: 432 | 4 【 以下文字转载自 Statistics 讨论区 】
发信人: ysxsjd (ysxsjd), 信区: Statistics
标 题: [分享]Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics系列
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 14 07:29:30 2010, 美东)
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
前面说明：
需要的童鞋请到我的签名档的博客查找！谢谢！发E-mail太累了！
觉得有价值的话可以顶一下，以便更多的人看到！谢谢！
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
详细介绍
1. Advanced Calculus with Applications in Statistics
2.A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications before 1750
3.Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming
4.Prob... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****g
发帖数: 3896 | 5 能不能不要只盯着这些无聊的生活细节啊？他的学生对他评价都很高，绝对是一位优秀
的老师：
This man taught me calculus. A wonderful gentleman and a phenomenal
instructor.
[+]Temorse 282 points283 points284 points 12 hours ago (11 children)
[–]Temorse 282 points283 points284 points 12 hours ago
I was also lucky enough to have him as my calc professor, twice. The first
thing he would tell us at the beginning of each term was, "My name is Yitang
Zhang, but in China, you would call me Zhang Yitang." Then he would erase
both names off the white ... 阅读全帖 |
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B****n
发帖数: 11290 | 6 Most probability textbooks do not contain bayesian theorems.
Several classic textbooks of probability theory:
A course in probability theory: concise but a little too old; beautiful
proofs
Probability theory and examples: many interesting examples, covering
martingales and markovs, ergodic theory
Probability and Measure: easy to read (compared to other classics) and
connects the measure theory well |
|
a**5
发帖数: 14 | 7 Dok:
Do you know why I despise you? Look at what kind of lousy advice you have
given to people. You had put it on the front page of your club for ages. Do you have any
shame left in you? You have deleted the comment that you dont care whether I am right or wrong.
Here is a response from an English forum:
Option 3, NB's comment: ‘I guess he must have changed.' --Probably the best of your
suggestions, in my opinion - you are sticking by your original opinion
of the advisor, whilst acknowledging... 阅读全帖 |
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h***y
发帖数: 834 | 8 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
skyscorpio (天之蝎子) 于 (Sat Mar 19 16:43:34 2011, 美东) 提到:
这个版上真的是能人太多了，而且丝毫没有把我们版务放在眼里，明令禁止的事情有些
人真的是想做就做。我们四个版务都很忙，实在没时间跟着你们后面给你们擦屁股了。
既然大家喜欢在麦地里发泄，我们成全你们。
现在我宣布，直到东部时间星期天晚上11：59PM，大家都可以在麦地为所欲为，包括对
骂，但是不能骂娘。有私人恩怨的赶紧抓紧时间解决。过了这个时间我不希望再看到人
性丑陋的一面。凡是看到，就不仅仅是删贴了。
到了时间以后，我们会把这段时间里的所有发言做成合集，放在精华区的一个文件夹了
，文件夹的名字叫“麦地的耻辱柱”。珍惜机会，都来吧。
下周希望我们能看到很多关于match之路的帖子，先谢谢今年match上的同学。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
AK45 (match) 于 (Sat Mar 19 18:37:32 2011, 美东) 提... 阅读全帖 |
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U**e
发帖数: 876 | 9 There is a stock trading at $10 today. We have publicly available
information about its future price. It will get taken over with 50%
probability. If it doesn’t get taken over, it goes bankrupt (stock = 0)
with 60% probability, stock = $ 5 with 40% probability. If it does get taken
over, price goes to $15 with 80% probability, $unknown with 20% probability
.
Someone wants an option to buy the stock after the decision happens for $20.
What is a fair price for the call option? What is its price if |
|
y****d
发帖数: 432 | 10 【 以下文字转载自 Statistics 讨论区 】
发信人: ysxsjd (ysxsjd), 信区: Statistics
标 题: [分享]Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics系列
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 14 07:29:30 2010, 美东)
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
前面说明：
需要的童鞋请到我的签名档的博客查找！谢谢！发E-mail太累了！
觉得有价值的话可以顶一下，以便更多的人看到！谢谢！
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
详细介绍
1. Advanced Calculus with Applications in Statistics
2.A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications before 1750
3.Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming
4.Prob... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****d
发帖数: 432 | 11 ★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
前面说明：
需要的童鞋请到我的签名档的博客查找！谢谢！发E-mail太累了！
觉得有价值的话可以顶一下，以便更多的人看到！谢谢！
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
详细介绍
1. Advanced Calculus with Applications in Statistics
2.A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications before 1750
3.Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming
4.Probability and Statistical Inference
5.Continuous Univariate Distributions, Vol. 1
6.Continuous Univariate Distributions, Vol. 2
7.The Theory of Measures and Integratio... 阅读全帖 |
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i**w
发帖数: 71 | 12 A related problem is the Gambler's ruin/Drunkman Walk, one version (as in
the GREEN bible is:
With equal probability you go up or down by 1 step. The probability of
hitting barrier a>0 before hitting a lower barrier -b<0 is b/(a+b). The
average total number of steps before hitting either one (win or lose) is a*b.
This is quite intuitive: the further away you are from the lower barrier,
the bigger your winning (hitting barrier a) probability, and it is linear.
The average number of steps needs so... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****e
发帖数: 207 | 13
I don't think so. Why are they (hehe, I'm Bayesian) called Frequentists?
The answer is: they think probability is the limit of frequencies, as
the number of repeated experiments approaches infinity. They believe
that probability is an objective matter.
However, Bayesians believe everybody can have his/her own view on a
probability that an event happens, i.e., probability is subjective, not
objective. For example, even with a same coin, people may have different
views on the probability of |
|
y****d
发帖数: 432 | 14 ★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
前面说明：
需要的童鞋请到我的签名档的博客查找！谢谢！发E-mail太累了！
觉得有价值的话可以顶一下，以便更多的人看到！谢谢！
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
详细介绍
1. Advanced Calculus with Applications in Statistics
2.A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications before 1750
3.Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming
4.Probability and Statistical Inference
5.Continuous Univariate Distributions, Vol. 1
6.Continuous Univariate Distributions, Vol. 2
7.The Theory of Measures and Integratio... 阅读全帖 |
|
n******t
发帖数: 189 | 15 I did not learn any regression course before,so I want your help. Thanks.
suppose a person wants to make a decision (accpet or reject) when an item
comes to him.
Current model is only a logistic regression model. We know person's decision
is based on a lot of variables such as A1, A2....(nearly 200 in total)
Then the final acceptance probability is the result of logistic regression
model.
Currently, we have real data of person's decision, we calculate the
acceptance probability according to this... 阅读全帖 |
|
r*****3
发帖数: 143 | 16 中文名: 概率与统计
原名: Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences
作者: Devore
Stone
Berk
图书分类: 科技
资源格式: PDF
版本: 第8版
出版社: Duxbury
书号: 0-538-73352-7
发行时间: 2011年
地区: 美国
语言: 英文
简介:
内容简介：
本书是为理工科本科生，研究生学习而编写的有关统计推理的理论，思想、方法
的教材。内容包括了理工科概率论的入门，又包括了经典统计和现代统计的基础部分。
本书具有以下特点：1目的性明确，其概率部分是完全为统计而设置的，因此比国
内的一般教材要少，要求的数学基础较低，只要具备初等微积分的知识即可通览全书；
2通过正文与习题旁征博引，引进了一些近代统计处理的新的技术；3配有大量的例子与
丰富的练习题；4 书中统计部分与国内的一般教材相比，理论上要深一些，论述的模型
更多，案例的涉及面更广，实用面更丰富，统计思想的阐述与算法更具体些。
目录:
Preface
1 overview and descriptive stat... 阅读全帖 |
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n****t
发帖数: 182 | 17 Before the experiment, Bayesian statisticians think about the “prior odds”
, Pr(H1)/Pr(H0), where Pr(H1) is the probability of H1 is true, and Pr(H0)
is the probability of H0 is true.
Frequentist, on the other hand, does not think that way: there is only one
simple truth, H0 is true or H1 is true.
After experiment, Bayesians gain Pr(H1/Data)/Pr(H0/Data), the so called
posterior odds.
Bayesian factor (bf)=Posterior odds/Prior odds. Bayesians use this for
hypothesis testing. (Another interesting ... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****d
发帖数: 432 | 18 ****************************************************************************
1）这些资料我以前也分享过，但是因为一些原因我的google博客被关闭了，我就不能
维护下载链接了。现在重新整理出来，免费分享给需要的人。
2）这些资料整理在www.svipbook.com不用担心，都是免费下载的。
3）如果大家需要在人大经济论坛下载任何文件，可以跟帖，我在有时间的情况下给你
下载下来然后传到你能下载的网盘比如dropbox or mediafire
4）如果您认为对您有帮助，请转载这个帖子。谢谢
****************************************************************************
★【1】牛人整理的统计学资料
list
1. AdvancedCalculus with Applications in Statistics
2.A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*******l
发帖数: 1542 | 19 you misunderstood the probability.
Given,
The probability of a criminal bringing a bomb to the plane is A,
and your probability of bringing the bomb to the plane is B,
then You Think that "the plane's probability of having a bomb is A*B".
It is wrong.
The plane's probability of having a bomb is A+B, Not A*B.
you don't need a professor to teach you this calculation, do you?
LOL |
|
c***z
发帖数: 6348 | 20 http://www.quora.com/How-long-will-coders-salaries-remain-as-hi
与数据科学的关系不大，与数据科学家的关系比较大。文章分析了一直困扰我的一个问
题：为什么老板都是外行？答案是：我们被外行殖民了。
This is an odd question, because software engineers' salaries aren't that
high. I wrote a blog post on this, here: Software engineer salaries aren't
inflated-- at least, not for the 99%. Relatedly, I wrote a Quora answer on
the topic: see Michael O. Church's answer to Why do software engineers make
so much?
That said, I certainly have no illusions about the impossibili... 阅读全帖 |
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l**a
发帖数: 6415 | 21 删掉一些了。
链接如下
plainenglishnuclear.blogspot.com
.......
1. I live on the West Coast. Am I in danger?
No. Absolutely not.
You won’t even notice except that everyone will keep talking about it for
ages, and it’ll take us even longer to get off coal and oil and natural gas
because people will be afraid of nuclear power again. Go outside, get some
sunshine (or rain, depending), be grateful for the fact that your city isn
’t completely destroyed in an earthquake or a tsunami, hug your loved ones... 阅读全帖 |
|
wh
发帖数: 141625 | 22 发信人: megguan (🐳), 信区: LeisureTime
标 题: Re: 朝三暮四包子题
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 31 18:29:04 2013, 美东)
吃！
今年最喜欢的书是george saunders的小说集tenth of december (最喜欢的是书里最后
一篇的同名小说；也在new yorker上登过)；今年最喜欢的电影是american hustle,
gravity还有一代宗师；最喜欢的歌是网络大俗歌what does the fox say?!
发信人: xiaobug (none), 信区: LeisureTime
标 题: Re: 朝三暮四包子题
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 31 19:33:00 2013, 美东)
同喜欢这本书。那天和 aixiaoke 讨论了一下。他的小说我看得很压抑，想起了白先勇
的 芝加哥之死
http://www.newyorker.com/fiction/features/2011/10/31/111031fi_f
Tenth of December
... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****a
发帖数: 92 | 23 Japan Nuclear Crisis: What Is a Full Meltdown?
Tuesday March 15, 2011 2:50 PM - Leave a Comment
Japan is on the brink of a nuclear disaster in the wake of its
devastating earthquake and tsunami, with a third explosion at the
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station damaging the steel containment
structure of one reactor, and a fire at another spewing radioactive
material into the air. Before the latest explosion and fire, as workers
raced to stay ahead of a full meltdown, The Daily Beast spoke wi... 阅读全帖 |
|
k****a
发帖数: 7077 | 24 这个来自facebook上几个小美研究生的反应
Lauren Pokomo Aren't we lost among asians? Not that we mind :-)
20 hours ago · Like
Andrew Aschenbrenner that's true, they are loveable people!!
20 hours ago · Like
Lauren Pokomo I feel you have missed where I was going with that.
20 hours ago · Like
Andrew Aschenbrenner probably =). more white people in science? we will
probably be working with asians all our life
20 hours ago · Like
Lauren Pokomo :-P
20 hours ago · Like
Alicia Adore Dude, you should email her. I'... 阅读全帖 |
|
q**x
发帖数: 1636 | 25 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: justin1996 (justin), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: 美机构用24名中国儿童做转基因大米人体试验<转>
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Aug 31 22:06:19 2012, 美东)
美国先正达对24名中国儿童进行转基因大米人体试验
绿色和平强烈谴责美国呼吁中国政府审核其合法性
法制网北京8月30日讯 记者 郄建荣 国际环保组织绿色和平8月30日向媒体表示，
近日，美国一科研机构发布了其对24名中国湖南省儿童进行转基因大米人体试验的结果
。对此，绿色和平表示强烈谴责。
据绿色和平介绍，该项研究旨在检验美国先正达公司研制的转基因“黄金(1658.90
,1.80,0.11%)大米”对补充人体维生素A的作用。
绿色和平表示，早在2008年，农业部和浙江省农业厅在得知该研究计划后即叫停该
项目。但一篇2012年8月1日发布于《美国临床营养学杂志》的论文显示，这项由美国塔
夫茨大学的唐广文领导并获得美国卫生院和美国农业部资金支持的研究最终得以完成。
绿色和平认为，用中国儿童作为转基因大米的... 阅读全帖 |
|
t********t
发帖数: 1070 | 26 这个同事其实是我的一个老板，对中国的事特别感兴趣，当然对中国女人更感兴趣。他
对中国没有特别的敌意，跟我的关系也不错，经常开玩笑，也是唯一一个常跟我谈他家
庭私事的白人。但是，有一点让有点不爽，就是他有时会转一些关于中国的文章给我或
是什么youtube的视频，都是中国的烂事，虽然也没有什么敌意, 可你也别老拿中国烂
事说事，所以我每次都反击，有时是严厉反击，收效不错。现在已经基本不在我面前扯
蛋了，尽管偶尔还有。下面是今天整理信箱时发现的一封信，贴一下当灌水了，信里
XXX是我同事。同事对这个e-mail的回复也比较有意思，可惜我已经删了，他揶揄我应
该去学新闻，并说我的统计数字可能有误，因为美国人一般不会冲进别人老婆的卧室。
-------------
XXX,
Actually, the Chinese government was forced to do that. They have to do that
because, first, the Chinese themselves want to stop taking organs from
executed inmat... 阅读全帖 |
|
T**E
发帖数: 1892 | 27 各种族之间的jj差异并不大。亚洲人jj小是西方系统重复的谎言。
西方这么宣传其实就是为了防止白女外f.
Does average penis size really vary between the races? Or is that just a
myth? If it's true, it should be mentioned in the article. Voortle (talk) 18
:55, 27 December 2009 (UTC)
A quick search reveals this page http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=366192 which quotes from a previous version of the main article. What happened to the quoted section? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.59.49.25 (talk) 19:21, 4 January 2010 (UTC)
Rel... 阅读全帖 |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 28 Newly discovered fossil could prove a problem for creationists
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2014/
Researchers report that they've found the missing link between an ancient
aquatic predator and its ancestors on land. Ichthyosaurs, the dolphin-like
reptiles that lived in the sea during the time of the dinosaurs, evolved
from terrestrial creatures that made their way back into the water over time.
But the fossil record for the lineage has been spotty, without a clear li... 阅读全帖 |
|
b****l
发帖数: 23606 | 29 我不是跟你说我不知道什么是decision tree了么？
至于什么是logistic reg
自己看维基去。
关于logit model 和probit model的区别，恐怕你从来没学过吧？
Logistic regression
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
"Logit model" redirects here. It is not to be confused with Logit function.
In statistics, the logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that is usually taken to apply to a binary dependent variable. In regression analysis, logistic regression or logit regression is estimating the parameters of a... 阅读全帖 |
|
s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 30 为弥补给富人减税造成的窟窿， 大幅削减社会保障网， 确保中产双倍支付政府开支。
狗屁党的梦想就要实现了。
Kudlow suggests entitlement reform is coming, which is just what Democrats
wanted to hear as they hammer GOP
Democrats criticize Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow, who said the Trump
administration will "probably" address reform of "larger entitlements" next
year.
The party has repeatedly warned about Republican efforts to trim back Social
Security, Medicare and Medicaid as it tries to take a House majority in
November's midterm elections.
K... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 31 CDC Laboratories Bolster Nation’s Testing Capacity
While initial efforts were underway to develop a safe and effective vaccine
to protect people against 2009 H1N1, work also was being done at CDC to help
laboratories supporting health care professionals to more quickly identify
the 2009 H1N1 virus in samples from patients. The real-time PCR test
developed by CDC was cleared for use by diagnostic laboratories by FDA under
an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) on April 28, 2009, less than two weeks... 阅读全帖 |
|
W*******n
发帖数: 4140 | 32 NYS Workers' Comp: How Alpha 3T MRI Fouls Even on The DVDs?
By Limin Wang
March 03, 2020
Introduction:
This realistic story mainly tells how a medical diagnostic imaging MRI
facility, Alpha 3T MRI (145 East 32 Street, Ground Floor, New York, NY 10016
. Phone: (212) 868-9210), gave me, an apparent workers’ compensation case (
NYS WCB# G2029240) patient but actually a victim of attempted murders, a DVD
completely blank in its content but with my information printed on the disk
skin, soon after the... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 33 Evaluation of the de-selection of men who have had sex with men from blood
donation in England
K. Soldan1,2, K. Sinka1,*
Keywords:blood donors;donor selection;HIV;transfusion-transmitted infection
Abstract
Background and Objectives The Blood Services of the UK permanently de-select
men who have had sex with men (MSM) from donating blood. The rationale for
this has been questioned. This article attempts to evaluate whether this
selection criterion does contribute to blood safety.
Materials and Me... 阅读全帖 |
|
R****a
发帖数: 6858 | 34 因为亚裔没有掌握话语权，中国没有掌握世界秩序。一个人的财力是无法对抗美国全社
会的
集体贬低的。
==================================================
Asian Men: Why Money Won't Score You Hotties
Written by Steven Lin | January 15, 2010 | Comments
Steven Lin talks about why Asian men and men in general can't rely on their
money to be with beautiful women.
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This is a topic that I want to write about because I remember the time when
my friend told me: "When I start making 6 figures, the women are going to
flock to ... 阅读全帖 |
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K***j
发帖数: 316 | 35 http://abovethelaw.com/2013/01/student-sends-open-letter-to-cla
Dear tYLS or tWall or whatever dumb shit you call it these days:
I am a second-semester 3L. How exciting. In a surprising turn of events, I
decided I want to work for a couple of years at a law firm but eventually
try to become a published author, or, if that fails, get a Ph.D. and try to
become a professor.
Why am I telling you all of this? It’s because I wanted to thank you all
for inspiring me to follow my passions and my dreams.... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 36
在晚间，在女的车里（灯光肯定不够亮）。吃一口中餐的蛋卷，在蛋卷里，还能借助车
里昏暗的灯光发现蟑螂。太让人怀疑了。
"6日晚间，20岁的非裔女子杰塔瑞·沃克（JatariWalker）来到位于丹尼森大街（
Dennison Ave）的好朋友海鲜中餐馆点餐，准备外带。她点了一份套餐和蛋卷，付了7
美元后离开。回到车上以后，她在蛋卷里发现一只蟑螂。"
而且都已经退了钱了，老板要是不是觉得自己对，是不会这么生气的。所以我说老板也
是被逼急了。
老板开枪当然会受到惩罚。女的现在说自己被枪击以后吃不下饭睡不着觉。摆明了一辈
子的诉讼都会等着这位老板。老板的店也关了，过去的存钱也会随着法律诉讼东流去。
贴些英语的评论：
http://www.abc3340.com/story/24666925/alleged-roach-infested-eg
Veeda
10 hours ago+8 updown
Share | Flag
If he had wanted to harm her, pretty sure he could have done so. Fact of the
matter is... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 37 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-people-arent-taking-possibility-
123424335.html
[Bloomberg]
Julie Verhage
September 13, 2016
Trump tail risk?
A new note from Citigroup Inc. says that while the firm still puts the
probability of Hillary Clinton securing the U.S. presidential election at 65
percent, investors are not taking the remaining chance of a win by Donald
Trump very seriously.
"A 35 percent probability for a Trump victory is more meaningful than
investors may be appreciating," the team... 阅读全帖 |
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f********m
发帖数: 8397 | 38 【 以下文字转载自 USChineseRight 俱乐部 】
发信人: fatboyslim (fatboyslim), 信区: USChineseRight
标 题: Dilbert 的作者的blog关于trump非常有深度，而且好玩
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Sep 18 18:12:16 2016, 美东)
比如这篇最新文章
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150603095761/assessing-the-risk-of-trump
Assessing the Risk of Trump
Posted September 18th, 2016 @ 4:23pm in #Trump #Clinton
For over a year now I have been blogging about Trump’s talent for
persuasion, and that gives people the impression that I prefer him as my
president. That is not the case.... 阅读全帖 |
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c******e
发帖数: 2503 | 39 https://medium.com/theyoungturks/the-basic-formula-for-every-shocking-russia
-trump-revelation-e9ae390d9f05#.wcsiel6zk
The basic formula for every breaking Trump/Russia story is essentially as
follows:
The New York Times or Washington Post releases an article that at first
blush appears extremely damning.
Anti-Trump pundits and Democrats react reflexively to the news, express
shrieking outrage, and proclaim that this finally proves untoward collusion
between Trump and Russia —̴... 阅读全帖 |
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h****r
发帖数: 258 | 40
folksinger 15 hours ago [-]
Let's take a recent election as an example:
A Bayesian pollster began with a certain set of prior probabilities. That
the college educated were more likely to vote in previous elections, for
example, informed the sample population, because it wouldn't make much sense
to ask the opinions of those who would stay home.
Thus, based on priors that were updated with new empirical data, a new set
of probabilities emerged, that gave a certain candidate a high probability
... 阅读全帖 |
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p******n
发帖数: 2449 | 41 Dan Bongino, author of Spygate: The Attempted Sabotage of Donald J. Trump,
lists reasons why the Mueller probe is the cleanup operation for what he
called the "biggest scam in American history."
Bongino presents the evidence at the David Horowitz Freedom Center
Restoration Weekend, held Nov. 15th-18th at the Breakers Hotel in Palm Beach
, Florida.
DAN BONGINO: Some of you may have seen me on Fox this morning, and in fact
one of the ladies I was just talking to said well, where did you do that
fr... 阅读全帖 |
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d********8
发帖数: 74 | 42 According to the IRS, 75% of the tax cheating is done by individuals—mostly
middle-income earners. Most of the rest of the cheating is done by
businesses. Cash-intensive businesses and service providers, from self-
employed handypeople to doctors, are the worst offenders.
How People Cheat on Their Taxes
Most cheating is from deliberate—actual or willful—underreporting of
income. This is called tax evasion—the most commonly charged tax crime. A
government study found the most underreporting of in... 阅读全帖 |
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w***o
发帖数: 151 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 Chemistry 讨论区 】
发信人: evans2 (evans), 信区: Chemistry
标 题: 哥大Shames 叫兽必须谢罪－包子伺候－修改稿出台公示
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 24 14:06:10 2011, 美东)
第二版出台 也同时希望中国化学教授能表现出支持的态度，虽然事不关己，看在民族大义份上，务必团结
Should Mr. Sames apologize to these students being ruined by his fraud?
Mr Sames is a tenured Professor in chemistry department of Columbia University, he focused on his study in organic chemistry. During the past 10 years, he is considered by peers as a genius chemist and published a variety of research publ... 阅读全帖 |
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g****l
发帖数: 32 | 44 He apparently rubbed 'bosses' the wrong way to start with, by asking if he
could take 3 weeks vacation when he was first assigned
the TA. He probably should have laid low when he was warned that the prof is
not fond of him. But still... Below is a comment from the article:
Anonymous posted on Jun 24, 2:11pm
Full disclosure: I'm a PhD student and TA who cares a lot about teaching and
about my students. I have had the opportunity to teach for extraordinary
students and I've had supportive professo... 阅读全帖 |
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M****o
发帖数: 4860 | 45 就是，起码也得写下面这篇这么长。。。
Why I Am Not A Christian
What Is a Christian?
Nowadays it is not quite that. We have to be a little more vague in our
meaning of Christianity. I think, however, that there are two different
items which are quite essential to anybody calling himself a Christian. The
first is one of a dogmatic nature -- namely, that you must believe in God
and immortality. If you do not believe in those two things, I do not think
that you can properly call yourself a Christian. Then, further tha... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********3
发帖数: 573 | 46 【大叔讲里程票故事6】如果最大化信用卡申请利益
每个人都想尽量从信用卡申请中最大化Mileage，这里有两点： 1. 选对卡（之前已经
大概说过）。 2. 提高申请成功率， 这个就是故事6的重点了： 信用分。
大家知道信用卡业务对于银行而言， 不是慈善事业， 而是一个Profitable Business
。 那么它如何盈利呢？大体上而言：
利润＝从商家手里收取的信用卡刷卡手续费－Probability (客户还不起 Default 的概
率)＊还不起的钱数－吸引新客户成本- 日常消费的Rewards
信用卡刷卡手续费： 大体上而言Visa， Master同等水平上都是2.X％， Amex稍微贵一
些3.X％。 这个是为什么很多商家不收Amex原因， 这也是为何Amex信用卡开卡Bonus＋
平时的Rebate也特别好原因： 看上面利润等式，能收到的多， 那么给客户的回馈也多
。 所以大家平时要多用Amex （大叔此时邪恶的笑了。。。）＋不要Abuse Amex的信
用卡， 和他们保持良好的长期的客户关系最重要。
Probability of Credit Default. 银行在决... 阅读全帖 |
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g****7
发帖数: 45 | 47 Why keyword-scanning tools are used on resumes: A recruiter's perspective
Date: November 15th, 2010
Author: Tim Heard
Category: General
Tags: Hiring, Job, Skill, Position, Tool, Candidate, Hiring Manager,
Recruitment & Staffing, Workforce Management, Productivity
0 comment(s)
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1
Toni Bowers: Recruiter Tim Heard wanted to respond to my blog about the
misuse of keywo... 阅读全帖 |
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B*******1
发帖数: 2454 | 48 之前版上出现不少次数的，但是现在实现想不起来该怎么做了
You are given a function. When it is called, it returns 0 with 60%
probability, and 1 with 40% probability. Now using this function, write a
new function that returns 0 with 50% probability and 1 with 50% probability. |
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c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 49 Can anybody look at this problem? The answer seems different from mine. 我觉
得答案不对。
Facebook Hacker Cup 2011 Round 1A
First or Last
As a top driver in European racing circles, you find yourself taking more
than your fair share of risks. You go into every race knowing it may be your
last, but generally with the suspicion it won't be. Today, however, may
turn out to be different. The Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile
has sanctioned a new track in the Bernese Alps that may prove to be death o... 阅读全帖 |
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s******u
发帖数: 550 | 50 第四题：概率题
上来一大堆介绍，迷惑我的，我精简一下问题:data center中硬盘坏的概率是1/100000
，现在每一个硬盘都有一个检测程序，但是它只有99%的正确率，意思就是，100个里面
它可能有一个判断错误，好的认为是坏的，坏的认为是好的。Please analyze the
impact of this diagnostic program。我晕菜了，他的意思其实是好的硬盘被误诊的
概率非常高，就是说1%远比1/100000小
The probability of broken harddrive is 0.001%
The probability of correct detection is 99%
indicating the probability of missed detection is 0.001%*99%~=0.001%
while the probability of false alarm is 99.999%*(1-99%)~=1%
The overall accuracy is true intact + true broken/all case... 阅读全帖 |
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