d***h
发帖数: 97 | 1 2008 Pollster Report Card
The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008
Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of
their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during
the month of October. The overall score is a weighted average of their
Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25%
consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page.
Poll Score Grade Accuracy C... 阅读全帖 |
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l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 4 全文：
A lot of polls are going to be wrong come Election Day, according to
pollster and analyst Pat Caddell who said Friday that America should be
ready for a “shock.”
“Something is going on in this country in these polls,” Caddell said,
assessing the differences among polls that show Trump with a narrow lead,
Clinton with a narrow lead, or Clinton with a large lead. The most recent
polls put Trump in the lead.
“All of the tracking polls keep holding at Trump being ahead,” he
continued. “And then ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 5 Below is a remarkable document. It's a memo circulated by Jan van Lohuizen,
a highly respected Republican pollster, (he polled for George W. Bush in
2004), to various leading Republican operatives, candidates and insiders.
-----------------------------------------------
n view of this week’s news on the same sex marriage issue, here is a
summary of recent survey findings on same sex marriage:
1. Support for same sex marriage has been growing and in the last few years
support has grown at an acce... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 6 September 27, 2012 by Doug Johnson
Obama’s lapdog media is going “balls to the wall” to convince voters that
Obama is currently trouncing challenger Mitt Romney. The problem is to get
their polling data to support their preferred narrative they have to assume
that Democratic voters are even more enamored with Obama than they were in
2008. Of course they won’t tell you that because no rational person would
believe that Barack Obama is riding a wave of support greater than is
historic 2008 support... 阅读全帖 |
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y***z
发帖数: 136 | 7 haha, republican leaning pollsters don't understand math because they hate
math and university. |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 8 That is true, they just believe their nuts, not math. Note the almost all
accurate pollsters are Dem lean, but since poll is a profession, they put
profession first. This isn't accidental. |
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s***5
发帖数: 453 | 10 https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/homenews/campaign/302571-are-the-polls-skewed
-against-trump
Want a tough job? Try being a pollster two weeks before Election Day.
Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are
biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling
surveys.
Conservative news sites have pounced on Trump’s arguments, pointing to a
trio of national polls that show the race between the Republican
presidential nominee and Democrat Hillary... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 11 Pollsters Claim Black Voters More Excited About Hillary Than They Ever Were
For Obama
Luke Rosiak
Investigative Reporter
7:25 PM 11/01/2016
Black Lives Matter Sign Joseph Sohm / Shutterstock.com, Hillary Clinton:
Evan El-Amin / Shutterstock.com Black Lives Matter Sign Joseph Sohm /
Shutterstock.com, Hillary Clinton: Evan El-Amin / Shutterstock.com
Polls showing Hillary Clinton with a massive lead over Donald Trump are
based on the dubious assumption that black voters will turn out for a white
... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 15 Speaking exclusively to Breitbart News, political polling pioneer Pat
Caddell said the Reuters news service was guilty of an unprecedented act of
professional malpractice after it announced Friday it has dropped the “
Neither” option from their presidential campaign tracking polls and then
went back and reconfigured previously released polls to present different
results with a reinterpretation of the “Neither” responses in those polls.
“This comes as close as I have ever seen to cooking the resu... 阅读全帖 |
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M********4
发帖数: 1272 | 16 If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
statement:
“The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
it at your own risk.”
BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
race...
http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
Oct 9, 2016
When it comes to election polling, it’s the... 阅读全帖 |
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q********c
发帖数: 1774 | 18 http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/poll-huge-support-for-imm
Immigration reform continues to attract broad public support as the Gang of
Eight compromise legislation moves through the Senate, according to a huge
raft of polling conducted for three pro-reform groups: the Partnership for a
New American Economy, the Alliance for Citizenship and Republicans for
Immigration Reform.
In a polling memo set for release Thursday– and shared early with POLITICO
– Democratic pollster Tom Jensen and Repub... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 19 NOM, the National Organization for Marriage, Tuesday issued results of a
poll that claims, “57% of New Yorkers Reject Same-Sex Marriage, Just
One in Four Want the Legislature to Decide the Issue,” but an examination
of the published results indicate the poll methodology is severely flawed,
heavily weighted with older, conservative respondents, and the pollster, QEV
, is an organization whose marketing brags of its president’s affiliation
with the Republican Party.
NOM, identified as an “a... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 20 Dem pollster warns that voters will scoff at claims of recovery
posted at 11:00 am on February 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
Barack Obama wants to ask for a second term as President on the message that
“America is back,” claiming that he has pulled the nation into a path for
prosperity and job creation. That will come as a big surprise to American
workers, who have not seen any improvement in their job situation or
economic position, warns Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg:
Democratic pollst... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 21 Pollsters developed all kinds of polling model or methods. Their goal is not
to make the pollling more accurate but easier for them to manipulate the
poll results.
For example, all polls left or right will interview citizens using a self-
developed population sampling theory. That is, if we poll 100 citizens, we
will have to poll x% registered democrats, y% republicans and (100-x-y)
independents. z% of the total interviewed has to be blacks, w% has to be
latino.....
Who determines x and y? the p... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 22 Radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh charged on Monday that the nation’s
pollsters have failed to accurately predict the outcome of the 2012
presidential election.
“Common sense tells me this election isn't gonna be close — and it shouldn
't be,” Limbaugh said on his afternoon radio program. “And yet, every poll
, every single poll, has this race tied.
“I have said that as we get down to the election, the polls are gonna
reflect what's really gonna happen because the pollsters want to get it
right... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********h
发帖数: 1001 | 23 主要就是说人们在调查的时候普遍不敢说真话，必须要装B装政治正确，所以电话调查
很多人嘴上说不支持trump，但是等投票的时候反而投给了trump
文中举过以前类似的例子，这叫Bradley效应。
具体反映在，trump在网络上的支持率要高于电话调查的支持率，对3000 GOP投票者调
查显示网络上支持率能高出6%
In 1982, California voters were supposed to elect former Los Angeles Mayor
Tom Bradley as the state's next governor.
Bradley went into the election with a sizable lead over George Deukmejian.
Exit polls projected a Bradley win. But when the ballots were counted,
Deukmejian came out the winner.
Thus, the "Bradley effect" was born — named as ... 阅读全帖 |
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l******d
发帖数: 1633 | 24 arg 的 poll 是 pro kasich
from 538
I’m seeing a lot of people get excited about an American Research Group
poll that shows Kasich (!) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan, 33 percent to
31 percent. It’s a newsy result, but here’s why you should be a little
skeptical.
First, American Research Group is not a highly-rated pollster. In fact, they
rank toward the bottom of our pollster ratings. Much to their credit, they
’ll sometimes post results that are way different from the pack, so you can
’t accus... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******2
发帖数: 3045 | 28 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: dalihe102 (dalihe), 信区: USANews
标 题: 支持Trump的人是morons
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 15 20:17:24 2016, 美东)
It doesn't get much more delusional than this. According to his supporters,
there are exactly two outcomes for this election:
1. Despite countless pollsters, statisticians, political historians, GOP
strategists, past and former GOP politicians, etc. overwhelmingly saying
otherwise, Trump will win in a landslide.
2. Hillary steals the election from Trump through illegi... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: MoGucheng (莫孤城), 信区: USANews
标 题: Washington times关于wikileaks邮件的报导
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 16 10:48:52 2016, 美东)
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/14/seven-more-hillary-clinton-scandals-exposed-wikile/
Seven more Hillary Clinton scandals exposed by WikiLeaks
The avalanche dump of emails from John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign
chairman, keep coming from WikiLeaks, exposing the insider nature and
corruption within the Clinton campaign and Democratic P... 阅读全帖 |
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m**c
发帖数: 7349 | 30 It is possible that “shy Trump” voters didn’t want to admit their support
to pollsters. However, there was no evidence of such a pattern during the
Republican primaries, when Mr Trump did not generally beat his polls.
And given his margin with working-class whites, it is hard to imagine that
people whose friends and neighbours mainly backed him would be ashamed to
say so themselves. A likelier cause is “non-response bias”—that working-
class whites who backed Mr Trump were particularly reluctant... 阅读全帖 |
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r*******4
发帖数: 1484 | 31 二十多岁的小年轻，一天有十六个小时看着iphone，pollster的电话当然一个不会错掉。
可是六七十岁的老头老太即使有iphone，不但不玩pokemon，pollster电话打进来都因
为耳朵背错过了。
乡下干活的农民整天在地里干活，轰轰的拖拉机那么吵，哪里能听的到手机响？
可是老头老太和种地的农民，十一月八号风雨无阻起大早投下给Trump的神圣一票。二
十多的小年轻手机游戏玩得投入了，还管他妈的稀拉里稠拉里。 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 32 When it comes to winning, Republicans are like Charlie Sheen. That is, they
think they are WINNING, but they're obviously not. But don't take my word
for it, look at recent polling.
Budget battles. The latest WSJ/MSNBC poll shows the most popular ways to
balance the budget are the ones Republicans are least inclined to do. Most
popular: tax increases for millionaires, cutting defense spending, and
ending tax breaks for oil and gas companies. Least popular: cutting health
care for the poor, cutti... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 34 参议院民主党领袖、极左的Harry Reid，现在是最富有的参议员之一，住在首府华盛顿
的超豪华的Ritz公寓中。他的财富从哪里来？
http://www.dirtymoneyharry.com/reidmoney.html
Where Reid's Money Came From
By Daxton Brown
d*********[email protected]
In the Sharron Angle vs Reid debate on October 14th, Angle asked Senator
Reid how he was able to accumulate so much wealth on a politicians salary.
One would suppose that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is a fairly
important person and many in the media would already have answers to this
question. However, other than... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 35 March 21, 2012 Posted by Shawn Mallow
By now, most all of us who follow politics have heard the collective barking
over Mitt Romney and his dog, Seamus.
Seems in 1983, Mitt saw fit to attach Seamus’ kennel to the top of his car
while driving to a family vacation.
I adore animals, including our clunky, slobbering, faithful doggies. And
while I can’t understand why anyone would pop a pup on the roof of their
car, the way this tail (excuse me, tale) has played out in the current
political realm i... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 36 VOTE FRAUD: Vir. Dem’s Field Director Conspires to Commit Voter Fraud,
Forge Docs
October 24, 2012 by Warner Todd Huston
Jim Moran is an extremist, liberal Congressman from the state of Virginia
and it appears that his campaign office thinks perpetrating vote fraud is a
very good idea. So good that Moran’s campaign field director, his son
Patrick, conspired with the undercover camera of James O’Keefe to commit
vote fraud through forged documents and other violations of the law.
This is pretty ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 37 By J.T. Hatter
Obama decided early in his re-election campaign to destroy his opponent,
Mitt Romney. The Democratic Party's mud-slinging ads, and the mainstream
media newscasts, relentlessly painted Romney as an evil conservative who
looks down on the 47% of Americans who receive government benefits. Romney
was a wealthy industrialist who outsourced American jobs, a greedy
capitalist who murdered a steelworker's wife by taking away her health
insurance, a tax-evader, a bad Mormon, and a racist... 阅读全帖 |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 38 #2, your comment is unwarranted, this issue is more with pollsters than
newsmedia.
I am not sure what lz called "adjustment for polls". Polls are carried
equally within certain random fashion with the industry stand. And most of
those pollsters are making living out of them, and the reputation matters
too. |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 39 Something very much like that appears to be happening again. I say that for
two reasons. First, it has been mystifying to watch as pollster after
pollster has assumed a 2008 turnout model, with a result that their
weighting has assumed Democrat advantages of seven or more points throughout
the post-Labor Day campaign.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney-will-win-because-its-1980- |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 40 Gallup: Pelosi Least Liked Congressional Leader, and ‘Most Polarizing’
April 24, 2013
By Michael W. Chapman
(CNSNews.com) – House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is viewed as
the most “unfavorable” member of the congressional leaders by the American
people and the “most polarizing,” according to a new Gallup survey.
In the survey, people were asked their impression of the four top members of
Congress: House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), House Minority Leader Nancy
Pelosi (D-Calif.), Sen... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 41 by Peter Ferrara
Day 2 of the government shutdown, and look out the window. The sun is still
shining, and the sky is still blue. The birds are chirping.
The Great Government Shutdown is not that big a deal, even for the
government. The federal civilian workforce includes 2.9 million bureaucrats.
Out of that, only 800,000 are being furloughed, or just 27%. Even for these
workers, the shutdown just amounts to a paid vacation for a few days.
Just like the overballyhood sequester, average Americans ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 42 哈哈, 无知少女的妇女们发现自己要付更多的钱买保险,于是纷纷反水.
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/30/21252291-poll-maj
Poll: Majority think health law needs overhaul or elimination
By Domenico Montanaro Deputy Political Editor, NBC News
A majority of Americans – 52 percent – believe the health care law needs
either a major overhaul or to be completely eliminated, a new NBC News/Wall
Street Journal poll finds.
Forty-four percent think it either needs minor modifications or that it’s
working well as is.
The Obama admi... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 43 A new high has been reached of Americans who believe that Obamacare is bad
for the country -- 55 percent.
Rasmussen Reports also said that just 35 percent of 1,000 likely voters
surveyed in a new Obamacare poll believe that President Obama's trademark
legislation and health program is good for America.
A similar 55 percent “also at least somewhat favor repealing the law, while
41 percent are opposed. This includes 43 percent who strongly favor repeal
and 31 percent who strongly oppose it,” said ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 44 8:29 AM, Dec 11, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
The latest national opinion poll show Barack Obama continuing to receive low
marks from the American people, just over a year after his reelection. The
poll, commissioned by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, found that 54
percent of Americans disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president, a
record high for his term in office, while 43 percent say they approve. This
finding continues a downward trend for Obama's approval rating since late
Oc... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 45 The UK results are in. The pollsters could not have been more wrong. The
expected result was a close vote and a hung parliament. Instead, Labour and
the Liberal Democrats got pounded. Here are the Final Tallies from the
Guardian.
In a surge of nationalism that will likely lead to a call for another
independence referendum, the Scotland National Party (SNP) won 56 seats of
59 seats.
Nigel Farage did not win his seat, but he will be around. So will UKIP. It
appears UKIP did not take votes from the... 阅读全帖 |
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i***a
发帖数: 4718 | 46 The pollsters say they are loyal, but 你觉得pollsters会问床铺自己bring up的
假想的开枪杀人问题？！
如果真有这样的问题。估计床铺和粉丝又要对MSM悲愤乐。
没问这样的问题，那床铺又被抓住说谎乐。LOL
You cannot have the lunch and eat it at the same time. |
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