r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 1 I believe it is an intentional control from the government.
They want to delay the new cases and try to approve more EB2 C&I old cases
in this FY.
The ROW EB2 may decrease because of the delay of PW.
It's a strong sign of significant movement of EB2 C&I in this FY. |
|
c****r
发帖数: 969 | 2 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
friskpipi (蹦蹦跳跳) 于 (Fri Jul 15 11:16:45 2011, 美东) 提到:
给Openheim发信，问过了07大潮如何定排期，同时建议他短期内排期大步前进 to
build up inventory。 他说：
1. 一旦排期过了08/15/2007，需要将排期推进来允许交485.
2. 他会和USCIS一同协商。看有多少Pending EB2 I-140 和他认为FY-2012的可用名额
来决定排期前进多少。（看来全C是不可能的）。
还没有给他回信，大家提建议如何回信吧。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
friskpipi (蹦蹦跳跳) 于 (Fri Jul 15 11:18:31 2011, 美东) 提到:
嗯？大家不感兴趣？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
KRISWANG (KRIS) 于 (Fri Jul 15 11:19:41 2011, 美东... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******t
发帖数: 2459 | 3 下面从trackitt转来的贴子, 分析的有道理:
FY2010PERM批准激增事实上是并不是本财年递交的(earlier PDers). 事实上FY2010年
甚至比2009年少.
Quote from below link PDF(page 14): "In FY 2010 employers filed 43,984
applications, a 28 percent decrease from FY 2009 in which 60,977
applications were filed."
Quote from Trackitt:
First 烙印:
Yes, I think so. Also, people are saying that 2010 numbers are high
*********************************************
largely because of audit approvals from 2007-08 timeframe. So, there
**********... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 4 I copied from Q's forum. Credit to Spectator.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.
totally we need 25k visa numbers in order to reach 2008. Things don't look
too great. We will be lucky if we can reach 2008.01 in the FY 2012.
With the reform of EB5 and new EB2 category, things look very bad. This year
we got 28k SOFAD, I doubt we can get 20k SOFAD in the next FY.
------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including... 阅读全帖 |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 5 Thanks to dymu!
Now I believe this summer Cutoff should be in early 2010.
UPDATED:
Dec/Jan filings to TSC/NSC = 52k
Based on FY 2011, EB2IC got around 40k quota and EB3 had 40k. This leaves 140k-40-40=60k to EB1/2ROW/4/5 filers. Around 5k per month. Let's assume this year it is slightly higher at 5.5k per month, so 11k in those 2 months. Deduct this and we have 41k.
Refugees are estimated by dymu as 10k per month, 20k in those 2 months. We now have ONLY 21k left for EB2CI.
As other EB had 5.5k p... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******t
发帖数: 1359 | 6 网上找的信息：
One of the most important fiscal years for the economy is the Federal Fiscal
Year, which defines the U.S. government's budget. It runs from October 1 of
the prior year through September 30 of the year being described. For
example:
•FY 2012 is from October 1 2011 through September 30 2012.
•FY 2013 is from October 1 2012 through September 30 2013.
那是不是从今年10月开始，就有新的绿卡名额批485了？年底前09PD有希望绿？ |
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a*******d
发帖数: 4846 | 7 Isn't the evidence really obvious?
Depends on how many SO from ROW for the rest of this FY year, no one
knows for sure how many more cases of submitted PD 09/10 EB2IC would
get approved. And EB3I will continue porting to EB2I, most of those
folks have ancient old PD, so the retrogress is unlikely to affect
them. Since EB2I and EB2C PD are still tied together, if they don't
move then we cannot move.
Those already submitted EB2IC cases (and porting EB3I cases) not
approved for this year will becom... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 8 There is one thing I dont quite understand. anyone can clarify?
Each year china EB-2 gets 2800, so even if there is no spillover at all, we
will get 2800 at least.
In 2008 and 2009, total demand for EB-2C are only about 5000, does that mean
even if there is no spill over at all, in FY 2012/2013, all chinese EB-2C
can be cleared.
So in FY 2014 (2013 September 1st), EB-2C cutoff date can move into 2010. SO
it is not bad at all, we can expect to sumbit 485 in 3.5 years.
please correct me if there i... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 9 There is one thing I dont quite understand. anyone can clarify?
Each year china EB-2 gets 2800, so even if there is no spillover at all, we
will get 2800 at least.
In 2008 and 2009, total demand for EB-2C are only about 5000, does that mean
even if there is no spill over at all, in FY 2012/2013, all chinese EB-2C
can be cleared.
So in FY 2014 (2013 September 1st), EB-2C cutoff date can move into 2010. SO
it is not bad at all, we can expect to sumbit 485 in 3.5 years.
please correct me if there i... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 11 There is one thing I dont quite understand. anyone can clarify?
Each year china EB-2 gets 2800, so even if there is no spillover at all, we
will get 2800 at least.
In 2008 and 2009, total demand for EB-2C are only about 5000, does that mean
even if there is no spill over at all, in FY 2012/2013, all chinese EB-2C
can be cleared.
So in FY 2014 (2013 September 1st), EB-2C cutoff date can move into 2010. SO
it is not bad at all, we can expect to sumbit 485 in 3.5 years.
please correct me if there i... 阅读全帖 |
|
b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 12 There is one thing I dont quite understand. anyone can clarify?
Each year china EB-2 gets 2800, so even if there is no spillover at all, we
will get 2800 at least.
In 2008 and 2009, total demand for EB-2C are only about 5000, does that mean
even if there is no spill over at all, in FY 2012/2013, all chinese EB-2C
can be cleared.
So in FY 2014 (2013 September 1st), EB-2C cutoff date can move into 2010. SO
it is not bad at all, we can expect to sumbit 485 in 3.5 years.
please correct me if there i... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 13 They can stop processing EB2C application this FY, that is fine. But still
once FY2013 starts (2012 september), we will have 2800 and when FY2014
starts (2013 september), we will have another 2800. So to the worst EB2C PD
2010 can start submit 485 in FY 2015 (2014 SEPTEMBER). That is about 2.5
years from now. So why everyone is crying here like we have to wait for 50
years in order to submit 485.
I dont understand. very confusing many people's manner here. |
|
b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 14 There is one thing I dont quite understand. anyone can clarify?
Each year china EB-2 gets 2800, so even if there is no spillover at all, we
will get 2800 at least.
In 2008 and 2009, total demand for EB-2C are only about 5000, does that mean
even if there is no spill over at all, in FY 2012/2013, all chinese EB-2C
can be cleared.
So in FY 2014 (2013 September 1st), EB-2C cutoff date can move into 2010. SO
it is not bad at all, we can expect to sumbit 485 in 3.5 years.
please correct me if there i... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 15 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
moneybull (moneybull) 于 (Sat Mar 17 13:39:28 2012, 美东) 提到:
I will deliver 100 dumplings in total.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
soulvirus (未名大骚包) 于 (Sat Mar 17 13:40:01 2012, 美东) 提到:
re
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Beijing (我是猪--听说猪是被祝福的) 于 (Sat Mar 17 13:40:35 2012, 美东) 提到:
re
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
aulaa (猪鼻里) 于 (Sat Mar 17 13:40:49 2012, 美东) 提到:
吃阿吃，吃饱了打球去。
☆─────────────────────────────────────... 阅读全帖 |
|
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z****l
发帖数: 69 | 17 看见这样一个预测, 而且据说这人以往的预测都比较准确.
EB2-India and EB2-China would retrogress to 15th August 2007 in coming
bulletin. Now since we have all the demand to satisfy annual quota for this
fiscal year, dates will remain stagnant up to July visa bulletin. In August
visa bulletin, we may see 3-4 months movement and then in September it will
be March 2008, with final resting point for cut-off date at May-June 2008 or
more in October-December visa bulletins. We can crunch exact numbers once
next inventory data is... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 18 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
BenChicago (Ben) 于 (Sat Mar 17 17:38:06 2012, 美东) 提到:
Trackitt统计的数据可以很明显看到：
1月第一周递交的25%左右已经报绿（1月份递交的485有一半集中在第一周）；
1月第二周递交的也开始零星报绿；
1月第三周以后递交基本上还没有报绿的。
我估计最近三周内，1月份递交的485会逐步大面积报绿。
祝各位好运！
PD: 08/08;
RD: 01/05/12;
EDA: 2/24/12;
485: 3/17/12.
TSC
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
whatifnot (Contour) 于 (Sat Mar 17 17:39:42 2012, 美东) 提到:
bless!
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ryegrass (修身养性) 于 (Sat Mar 17 18:15:47 2012, 美东) 提到:
bles... 阅读全帖 |
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d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 19 不过本FY第一季度已经用掉3wEB名额，而且批的大多数上个FY的case，所以留给10月以
后递交的EB名额只有11W |
|
p*******y
发帖数: 173 | 20 下面的话比较重要。看起来，SO今年是没有了。
Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second
preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so
for the remainder of FY-2012.
Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second
preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual
numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and
India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date
which had bee... 阅读全帖 |
|
s**d
发帖数: 516 | 21 因为6月的Bulletin说的很清楚了：Therefore, it was necessary to make the China
and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early
April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.
Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second
preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual
numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and
India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date
which had been... 阅读全帖 |
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f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 22 你是对的。假设中印松绑，如果SO足量FY年底还会绑在一起；如果SO不足，到FY年底中
国则只分到2803名额。
are
years
and |
|
b******1
发帖数: 1116 | 23 D. CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY IS
UNAVAILABLE
Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second
preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants
with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand
is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the
Employment Third preference category, and are n... 阅读全帖 |
|
s***r
发帖数: 2604 | 24 按我的理解, row的排期只是这个FY, 就是789这三个月吧. 因为row基本没什么以前的
负担, 十月一号以后下个FY的名额一出来就基本又c了.
对rule不是很明白,不知理解的对不对,求指点 |
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 25 原信得问friskpipi
http://www.weiming.info/zhuti/EB23/31372929/
惊天消息！Openheim 给我回信了，关于过了07大潮如何定排期。
friskpipi
2011-07-15 11:16:45
来自: 159.53.
1
给Openheim发信，问过了07大潮如何定排期，同时建议他短期内排期大步前进 to
build up inventory。 他说：
1. 一旦排期过了08/15/2007，需要将排期推进来允许交485.
2. 他会和USCIS一同协商。看有多少Pending EB2 I-140 和他认为FY-2012的可用名额
来决定排期前进多少。（看来全C是不可能的）。
还没有给他回信，大家提建议如何回信吧。
他的原文是“Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS i... 阅读全帖 |
|
m***i
发帖数: 177 | 26 DOS explanation of the number distribution between Family and Employment
based category: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_4747.html
If a foreign state other than an oversubscribed country has little Family
preference demand but considerable Employment preference demand, the
otherwise unused Family numbers fall across to Employment (and vice versa)
for purposes of that foreign state’s annual numerical limit.
For example, in FY-2009 South Korea used a grand total of 15,899 Family... 阅读全帖 |
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O*********e
发帖数: 971 | 27 如何解读这个表？
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf
Employment-based Preferences
Increase/Decrease
From 2011 Totals
Category FY 2011 FY 2012 (and % of change)
EMPLOYMENT FIRST 2,961 2,118 -843 (- 28.5%)
EMPLOYMENT SECOND 6,738 6,888 +150 (+ 2.2%)
EMPLOYMENT THIRD TOTAL 119,183 112,023 -7,160 (- 6.0%)
Skilled Workers: 102,395 97,060 -5,335 (- 5.2%)
Other Workers: 16,788 14,963 -1,825 (- 10.9%)
EMPLOYMENT FOURTH TOTAL 554 498 -56 (- 10.1%)
EMPLOYMENT FIFTH TOTAL 1,183 1,806 +623 ... 阅读全帖 |
|
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m********d
发帖数: 82 | 29 Does it mean the visa bulletin will advanced to November,07 next month? |
|
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P********6
发帖数: 709 | 31 EB1 spillover in Fiscal Year 2013 Like this thread?
Posted by prm2008 on Trackiit
I have made a high level calculation and came up with an EB1 spillover
prediction of 8,639 visas in Fiscal Year 2013. Analysis is shown below --
let's try to make this better so I appreciate any and all feedback!
I have broken out EB1 Usage in FY 2013 into two parts:
1) Current inventory: 13,905 pending inventory (from USCIS's pending
inventory report as of Oct 4th) divided by 85% (assuming 15% of all EB1
appro... 阅读全帖 |
|
e*H
发帖数: 16 | 32 这个我正好查过。搜索 I693_Extension_PM_Approved_Final122012 可以在 uscis.gov
上找到答案。答案是不需要重做。针对这个问题CIS每年都会发个类似的通知。
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memorand
Even if more than one year has elapsed since the civil surgeon’s
endorsement of a Form I-693 submitted in support of an I-485 or I-687
application, the Form I-693 should be considered valid for adjudications
occurring during the remainder of FY 13 to establish that the applicant is
not inadmissible on medical grounds in any case in w... 阅读全帖 |
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 33 1. Yes.
2. Nobody knows until next FY. Any unused FB this FY will add to next year
EB, just like this year.
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7 |
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c**l
发帖数: 1022 | 34 请看看有没有用？是套话吧？
Hi,xxx – Sorry for the delay in responding. Here is information provided
by xxx regarding the immigrant visa number allocation for the applicants in
the Employment Third Preference category (EB-3):
The allocation of visa numbers is based on regulations specified in the
Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). The fiscal year 2013 limit for
employment-based preference immigrants calculated under Section 201 of the
INA is 158,466, which is divided into five preference categories. Se... 阅读全帖 |
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f********s
发帖数: 526 | 35 今天早上收到的: 好像只是泛泛的解释了一下, 说了一些官话, 实质性的改善是理都没
理吧:
Our fellow petitioners have reported receiving feedback from Visa Office
regarding the EB-3 visa allocation from at least one congressman's office.
We do not believe the response answers all our questions, and we will follow
up on the issue to further explain the situation. Stay tuned!
As FYI, here is information provided by Visa Office regarding the immigrant
visa number allocation for the applicants in the Employment Third Preference
category (EB-3... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 36 看NIU数据，09年到12年9月，EB23 140 大概有17K，12.9到13.7，再加上估计的3K，共
约 20K.
FY 14-16， 每年算6K EB2+3名额。能消化18K。所以FY 17能指望交表。
只是最简略版估算。 如果要更精确一点，需算2类今年是从08.8开始的（+），3类09年
的2K可能很多已经升级被2类11-12的数据重复计算（-），还有家属(+)，以及NIW升级
EB1(-). 等等各种++--. 暂时不细算。 |
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n*****a
发帖数: 447 | 37 我的理解是立即停掉，知道下一个财年，下面是 AILA 上次2012年 U 后贴出的解释：
D. CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY IS
UNAVAILABLE
Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second
preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants
with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand
is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the
Emp... 阅读全帖 |
|
Y*****o
发帖数: 1173 | 38 Post it here also:
Executive Summary
The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India is projected to advance by nearly
five years, to an early summer 2009 date, by the September Visa Bulletin.
The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance by nearly five years,
to an early summer 2009 date, by the September Visa Bulletin. EB-2 China is
projected to move forward by five weeks per month for the remainder of the
fiscal year, but EB-3 China will remain static and could retrogress further
if demand ... 阅读全帖 |
|
B*****o
发帖数: 661 | 39 United States
State Department Projects Significant Movement for EB-2 India in the Coming
Months
June 3, 2014
Executive Summary
The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India is projected to advance by nearly
five years, to an early summer 2009 date, by the September Visa Bulletin.
The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance by nearly five years,
to an early summer 2009 date, by the September Visa Bulletin. EB-2 China is
projected to move forward by five weeks per month for the remainder of... 阅读全帖 |
|
w*l
发帖数: 933 | 40 http://immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
04/25/2015: Would DOS Visa Bulletin Management Reform Encompass Recapture of
250,000 Past Unused Immigrant Visas Within FY-2015 or FY-2016?
As we reported earlier, the plan of the U.S. Department of State to reform
immigrant visa allocation reform has remained behind the closet. However,
one report indicates that the State Department and USCIS have been reviewing
their legal authority to recapture unused immigrant visas without
legislation and another source ... 阅读全帖 |
|
D**u
发帖数: 288 | 41 EB3 is not that bad, check this...
CHINA-MAINLAND BORN EMPLOYMENT THIRD, AND THIRD OTHER
WORKER VISA AVAILABILITY
There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for
consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore,
it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other
Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.
Every effort will be made to return those categories to the previously
announced July cu... 阅读全帖 |
|
z******7
发帖数: 359 | 42 There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for
consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore,
it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other
Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.
Every effort will be made to return those categories to the previously
announced July cut-off dates as quickly as possible under the FY-2016 annual
limits. Those limits will take effect October 1, 2015.
看来eb... 阅读全帖 |
|
z******7
发帖数: 359 | 43 There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for
consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore,
it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other
Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.
Every effort will be made to return those categories to the previously
announced July cut-off dates as quickly as possible under the FY-2016 annual
limits. Those limits will take effect October 1, 2015. |
|
y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 44 今年8月的VB note：
D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN EMPLOYMENT THIRD, AND THIRD
OTHER WORKER VISA AVAILABILITY
There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for
consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore,
it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other
Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.
Every effort will be made to return those categories to the previously
announced July cut-off dates as qu... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
w**d
发帖数: 163 | 46 看visa bulletin for September 2015,
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference
numerical limits for FY-2015 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of
the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2015 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,796
是不是确认FY2015 EB2， EB3的配额是144,796*7%*28.6% = 2899? 哪个大牛指导下。 |
|
l***y
发帖数: 962 | 47 呃 版花 他信里说是2类的了。
//
Effective Friday, July 31, 2015 it has been necessary to stop authorizations
in response to requests for China Employment Second preference cases for
the remainder of FY-2015. This action was necessary because the FY-2015
annual limit for this category has been reached.
// |
|
C********r
发帖数: 256 | 48 问他是否会兑现August VB的话， EB3C回到2011.09或前进更多，based on low EB3C
inventory data
D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN EMPLOYMENT THIRD, AND THIRD
OTHER WORKER VISA AVAILABILITY
There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for
consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore,
it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other
Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.
Every effort will be made to return those categ... 阅读全帖 |
|
y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 49 最后一句：Continued heavy demand
for numbers will require a retrogression of this date for June to hold
number use within the FY-2016 annual limit.
没有什么possible，maybe 烂七八糟的修饰，也是他的一个判断。
但是据我所知现在降级人群来看，也不少。
还有这个：within the FY-2016 annual limit |
|
y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 50 Neither of these dates is expected to advance prior to the end of the
fiscal year. 这句话的上一句是这个：
This has necessitated retrogression of both the Second and Third preference
final action dates for the month of June in an effort to hold number use
within those FY-2016 annual limits.
排期不进的目的或者结果不是浪费名额，而是为了 hold number use within those FY
-2016 annual limits. |
|
